Two months before trade season, the Phillies' biggest need
There are two ways to look at things. One, the Phillies have compiled of the best records in the majors, and they have managed to do so despite a series of injuries to crucial performers. Closer Brad Lidge and set-up man Jose Contreras are on the disabled list. Righthanders Roy Oswalt and Joe Blanton have spent time there too. Catcher Carlos Ruiz missed time with a sore back. And Chase Utley has yet to play in a game.
Two months before trade season, the Phillies' biggest need
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
There are two ways to look at things. One, the Phillies have compiled of the best records in the majors, and they have managed to do so despite a series of injuries to crucial performers. Closer Brad Lidge and set-up man Jose Contreras are on the disabled list. Righthanders Roy Oswalt and Joe Blanton have spent time there too. Catcher Carlos Ruiz missed time with a sore back. And Chase Utley has yet to play in a game.
All of that is comforting from a short-term perspective. The bullpen can only get stronger. The rotation has been about as good as anybody could have hoped. A lot of teams would love to have the Phillies' problems.
But few other teams have invested $160+ million in their payroll, and the Phillies did not spend that kind of cheddar because they wanted to be in first place in the middle of May. The goal here is another World Series. And when you look at things through that lens, the Phillies' biggest potential Achilles heel is one that had drawn no shortage of attention over the past few seasons:
Their ability, or lack thereof, to hit left-handed pitching.
Last night, Cardinals lefty Jaime Garcia held them to six baserunners and one extra base hit in eight innings of work. It was just their second loss in 11 games against a left-handed starter. But when you really break it down, that 9-2 record is something of a mirage. Not all lefties are created equal. There is a big difference between Jaime Garcia and Joe Saunders, a big difference between Jonny Venters and Tim Byrdak. Come playoff time, it is the Garcias and the Venters of the world that they will be facing.
Here's a stat for you:
Against left-handed pitching, Shane Victorino and Placido Polanco are a combined 32-for-75 (.427) with 3 strikeouts, 11 extra base hits and 5 home runs.
The rest of the Phillies' Opening Day starters are 44-for-201 (.219) with 46 strikeouts, 14 extra base hits and 2 home runs.
Whenever this topic is broached, the focus will immediately shift to Ryan Howard. Last night, he went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts against Garcia. In his last 21 at-bats against lefties, he has two hits, one for extra bases, and 11 strikeouts. All nine of his home runs this season have come against right-handed pitching.
The result has been a regression to the type of strikeout numbers Howard was posting earlier in his career. Heading into tonight's game against lefty Jorge De la Rosa, Howard ranks second in the NL with 50 strikeouts, two behind Arizona's Kelly Johnson. He has stuck out three or more times in eight games, most in the National League. All of last season he did it 11 times.
This is notable because his strikeout rate had declined steadily since 2007, when he stuck out in 30.7 percent of his plate appearances. That figure went to 28.4 to 26.5 to a career-low of 25.3. This year, he has struck out in 28.1 percent of his plate appearances, which is actually higher than his career average of 27.5.
In his last 16 games, Howard is hitting .169/.279/.356 with three home runs, five extra base hits, eight RBI, nine walks and 22 strikeouts in 68 plate appearances. In his first 25 games of the season, he hit .302/.364/.583 with six home runs, 27 RBI, nine walks, 28 strikeouts, eight extra base hits in 110 plate appearances.
During his recent skid, he is 2-for-17 with eight strikeouts against lefties. It probably isn't a coincidence that during that stretch, the Phillies have faced tough lefties like Garcia, Venters, Eric O'Flaherty, Mike Dunn and George Sherrill.
Again, this is nothing new for Howard. But the problem is magnified this season because nobody behind him has been able to serve as a counterweight to his struggles against southpaws.
Ben Francisco and Raul Ibanez, who have been directly behind him, are a combined 14-for-70 with 16 strikeouts and seven extra base hits against lefties. Carlos Ruiz is 2-for-18. At the top of the line-up, Jimmy Rollins is 10-for-40 with two extra base hits against lefties. Wilson Valdez has as many hits and extra base hits against lefties as Francisco does.
It is still early, of course. Francisco hit lefties very well last season. Ruiz hasn't hit anybody well since mid-April. And when Chase Utley returns, the Phillies could very well slide Victorino down to the five-hole against lefties to give them some middle-of-the-order pop (his seven extra base hits against left-handed pitching are the most on the team).
John Mayberry Jr. is 8-for-26 with four extra base hits against lefties. He'll likely get his fourth straight start tonight against De la Rosa.
But as Ruben Amaro Jr. and the rest of his front office begin to formulate their plan for the summer trading season, you have to think that right-handed bat will be at the top of their list. There are a couple of problems. First, there doesn't appear to be a heck of a lot out there. Second, the Phillies don't appear to have a heck of a lot of money to spend. Now, both of those things have a funny way of working out once the pressure of the trade deadline increases.
Would the Phillies be able to make a play for a guy like Carlos Beltran? Would the Mets be willing to play ball? The most feasible fit right now might be a guy like Minnesota's Michael Cuddyer. He hits lefties well, isn't a slouch against righties, and while he isn't known for his fielding prowess, he has started seven games at second base this season in addition to his usual role in right field.
If Joe Blanton were to get hot over the next couple of months, the Phillies might be able to free up some money by dealing him. So there is another variable.
These are not desperate times for the Phillies. As long as Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels stay healthy, they should win a lot of games in between now and the last couple weeks of July. But if the ultimate goal is another World Series, the Phillies will either need to get a dramatic resurgence from the middle third of the order, or they will have to add another element to help it along.
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About the person relying on a commentor to give info on players...Are these the same guys that said Oswalt was peaking outat 85mph the other day? Cause they turned out to be dead wrong. Just sayin...
Chase Utley has been batting since before spring training started...It's not like he just recently picked up a bat. If he is a little slow, it's probably a timing issue, which is the whole reason he is in rehab. Otherwise, he'd be here...He needs time to catch up.— MFPhils- I knew they needed a right handed bat the second Werth left -
Francisco is terrible in the field and at the plate,
they need to give the right field job to Mayberry
or start shopping for another bat -
The Four Aces have not registered a win in 11 games now -
and that is all on the anemic lineup the Phillies are putting out.— phillydude - As for Murph being long-winded...I am long-winded, Murph provided covered everything that needed to be covered. If you are looking for less in-depth writing, check out Gelb. I personally like having good information to read on a news site. I thought that was the point...You are spending to much time on Twitter I guess...— MFPhils
- MFPhils - You must be an old guy like me who grew up actually reading. I like the in-depth stuff. Plus, Murph gets paid by the word. He said when he's rich enough he'll be buying a block of season tickets for all of us. — s
- Lighen Up Francis..... it's only May!!— bluejfk
- "Whatever we get for Blanton is worth it. He is developing a dead arm." - so which GM would even consider taking Blanton and his $8+M salary for a bag of baseballs? None. And the Phils aren't going to eat his salary and put him in the bullpen or in AAA. Hence, Worley will stay in AAA. Trading Rollins without a replacement is a dumb idea. There isn't anyone in the farm system even remotely ready to replace him (Galvis in AA can't hit).
MFPhils - great point on Howard - he may not see another fastball again - at least one in a hittable location. He has zero protection in this lineup.
It's May folks - the Phils are in 1st place and have the best rotation in the league - relax and wait until at least the all-star break before hitting the panick!— dankil13 - Ed, Howard hit 45 Homers and batted 279 in 09...in 2010, when he missed 2 months, he hit 31 homers and batted .276. He got paid that contract because of that...he is our power hitter in the line-up. I'm not sure where you got the impression he was declining? What exactly do you expect him to do?
The problem is, he's only as good as the people around him. You can't expect him to do something with nothing...and the fact that he has such high RBI numbers on a team failing this miserably to get on base says a lot...
And judging a player by RBIs is very valid. While it is untrue that low RBIs means that player is bad, it does mean a player is good if he has high RBIs. You can't knock in a ton of runs without doing good things at the plate. Or are you trying to say that the Phillies are getting on base so much in front of Ryan only, that the numbers are skewed? We must have the best OBP in MLB at the top of order eh?— MFPhils - Not that I think this year is over by any stretch but the team could be much stronger next year. Potentially off the books would be Ibanez,Blanton,Lidge and Rollins. We may see Oswalt retire. Even so the starting pitching will be fine. It seems Madson is finally getting it on how to close games. Platoon Mayberry and Brown in right. Get a RH bat to play left. And maybe they go for Reyes at short.— dabirds
- an outside perspective on offense in general this year..
from David Schoenfield ESPN
1. Offense is down and not going up.
OK, it's not quite 1968, but entering Tuesday the major league batting average was .251, lowest since 1972, and the slugging percentage was .389, lowest since 1992. What this means is we have to mentally adjust our calculations of player performance from what we've been used to the past 15 years.
For example, Cliff Lee has a 3.84 ERA. Pretty good, right? Well, the NL overall ERA is 3.82, so before making park adjustments and so forth, Lee has been about average. He's 33rd among 61 NL starters in ERA. He's allowed a .262 batting average, which also placed him 33rd. Jimmy Rollins isn't having a great year with a .276/.355/.374 line? Actually, that makes about a league average hitter, and very good for a shortstop.
— sunking11 - They've fallen to around the middle or below in the league in most team hitting stats. So it's accurate to say they're an average or slightly below average team offensively at this point in the season. However, the recent splits have to be near the bottom -- past two weeks maybe. Something to check out. And you're probably not going to win a World Series being an average hitting team even if your pitching and defense is stellar. You at least have to be on an offensive upswing when the post-season arrives.
All that said, you can't make too many calls until they have a healthy lineup together for a while. The good thing about all this happening in May is that there should be time to get a good read by trade time. Then you hope that whatever happens -- healthy lineup or trades -- you're moving in the right direction offensively after the all-star break.— s - The problems are with the offense, and the injuries are mostly with the pitching. Guys like Ibanez, Howard, Rollins, Victorino and Ruiz have not hit well for a while; including a lot of last year. Utley won't be the magic savior either. As much as the rotation has been improved/overhauled the last few years; it's time to do the same with position players. We should no longer give free passes because somebody was good a few years ago.— burholme
- All is needed is a right-handed corner outfielder who hits for a high average and is an adequate fielder. Having gap power is more important than home run power for this candidate and should come at a cheaper price. We don't need another guy who bunches hits in two of the seven games in the week. We already have too many of those guys already. This team doesn't have that guy who will deliver the big hit with runners on base. Polanco is a close as it gets. Why Rollins is showing good on-base stats this year, he is not normally a good lead-off hitter, and I would rather see Martinez play shortstop next year and use Rollins salary money to address some of the other needs on this team for next year. But, the Ben Francisco experiment has been a bust, and Gload needs more playing time even with his defensive deficiencies. I tired of seeing Francisco struggle getting base hits. He is a platoon player at best, and at most likely a defensive replacement. Don't blame Sardinha for his hitting deficiencies. He is not there to hit, but spell Ruiz. Any hits he gives you are gravy. Mayberry should be playing more than Francisco, and the Philly press corps should be asking why he is not playing more.— RunningTheBases
Comment removed.- What happen to the 2nd baseman from the Mets??— joedig22
- Get rid of Rollin Ibanez Valdez Fransico + Baez Romero Blanton ...and we should start winning games again!— puckdaddy
