Two months before trade season, the Phillies' biggest need
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Two months before trade season, the Phillies' biggest need
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
There are two ways to look at things. One, the Phillies have compiled of the best records in the majors, and they have managed to do so despite a series of injuries to crucial performers. Closer Brad Lidge and set-up man Jose Contreras are on the disabled list. Righthanders Roy Oswalt and Joe Blanton have spent time there too. Catcher Carlos Ruiz missed time with a sore back. And Chase Utley has yet to play in a game.
All of that is comforting from a short-term perspective. The bullpen can only get stronger. The rotation has been about as good as anybody could have hoped. A lot of teams would love to have the Phillies' problems.
But few other teams have invested $160+ million in their payroll, and the Phillies did not spend that kind of cheddar because they wanted to be in first place in the middle of May. The goal here is another World Series. And when you look at things through that lens, the Phillies' biggest potential Achilles heel is one that had drawn no shortage of attention over the past few seasons:
Their ability, or lack thereof, to hit left-handed pitching.
Last night, Cardinals lefty Jaime Garcia held them to six baserunners and one extra base hit in eight innings of work. It was just their second loss in 11 games against a left-handed starter. But when you really break it down, that 9-2 record is something of a mirage. Not all lefties are created equal. There is a big difference between Jaime Garcia and Joe Saunders, a big difference between Jonny Venters and Tim Byrdak. Come playoff time, it is the Garcias and the Venters of the world that they will be facing.
Here's a stat for you:
Against left-handed pitching, Shane Victorino and Placido Polanco are a combined 32-for-75 (.427) with 3 strikeouts, 11 extra base hits and 5 home runs.
The rest of the Phillies' Opening Day starters are 44-for-201 (.219) with 46 strikeouts, 14 extra base hits and 2 home runs.
Whenever this topic is broached, the focus will immediately shift to Ryan Howard. Last night, he went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts against Garcia. In his last 21 at-bats against lefties, he has two hits, one for extra bases, and 11 strikeouts. All nine of his home runs this season have come against right-handed pitching.
The result has been a regression to the type of strikeout numbers Howard was posting earlier in his career. Heading into tonight's game against lefty Jorge De la Rosa, Howard ranks second in the NL with 50 strikeouts, two behind Arizona's Kelly Johnson. He has stuck out three or more times in eight games, most in the National League. All of last season he did it 11 times.
This is notable because his strikeout rate had declined steadily since 2007, when he stuck out in 30.7 percent of his plate appearances. That figure went to 28.4 to 26.5 to a career-low of 25.3. This year, he has struck out in 28.1 percent of his plate appearances, which is actually higher than his career average of 27.5.
In his last 16 games, Howard is hitting .169/.279/.356 with three home runs, five extra base hits, eight RBI, nine walks and 22 strikeouts in 68 plate appearances. In his first 25 games of the season, he hit .302/.364/.583 with six home runs, 27 RBI, nine walks, 28 strikeouts, eight extra base hits in 110 plate appearances.
During his recent skid, he is 2-for-17 with eight strikeouts against lefties. It probably isn't a coincidence that during that stretch, the Phillies have faced tough lefties like Garcia, Venters, Eric O'Flaherty, Mike Dunn and George Sherrill.
Again, this is nothing new for Howard. But the problem is magnified this season because nobody behind him has been able to serve as a counterweight to his struggles against southpaws.
Ben Francisco and Raul Ibanez, who have been directly behind him, are a combined 14-for-70 with 16 strikeouts and seven extra base hits against lefties. Carlos Ruiz is 2-for-18. At the top of the line-up, Jimmy Rollins is 10-for-40 with two extra base hits against lefties. Wilson Valdez has as many hits and extra base hits against lefties as Francisco does.
It is still early, of course. Francisco hit lefties very well last season. Ruiz hasn't hit anybody well since mid-April. And when Chase Utley returns, the Phillies could very well slide Victorino down to the five-hole against lefties to give them some middle-of-the-order pop (his seven extra base hits against left-handed pitching are the most on the team).
John Mayberry Jr. is 8-for-26 with four extra base hits against lefties. He'll likely get his fourth straight start tonight against De la Rosa.
But as Ruben Amaro Jr. and the rest of his front office begin to formulate their plan for the summer trading season, you have to think that right-handed bat will be at the top of their list. There are a couple of problems. First, there doesn't appear to be a heck of a lot out there. Second, the Phillies don't appear to have a heck of a lot of money to spend. Now, both of those things have a funny way of working out once the pressure of the trade deadline increases.
Would the Phillies be able to make a play for a guy like Carlos Beltran? Would the Mets be willing to play ball? The most feasible fit right now might be a guy like Minnesota's Michael Cuddyer. He hits lefties well, isn't a slouch against righties, and while he isn't known for his fielding prowess, he has started seven games at second base this season in addition to his usual role in right field.
If Joe Blanton were to get hot over the next couple of months, the Phillies might be able to free up some money by dealing him. So there is another variable.
These are not desperate times for the Phillies. As long as Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels stay healthy, they should win a lot of games in between now and the last couple weeks of July. But if the ultimate goal is another World Series, the Phillies will either need to get a dramatic resurgence from the middle third of the order, or they will have to add another element to help it along.
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Last yearthe team had that hitter (Werth), plus Utley and they still went to some rough period of times. As a matter of fact, Polanco was supposed to be the missing piece, that fundamentally sound hitter that will complement the combination of speed and power in the line up. It didn't happen last year, at least in a consistent basis and was practically non-existant in the playoffs, and this year is even worse. The hitting approach has not changed, period.— EL Zorro- It is probaly too early to tell who the buyers and sellers are going to be with so much parity right now. Im scratching my head to find some good options to fill the corner outfield void, Carlos Quentin, Delmon Young, Marlon Byrd,and Chris Young struck me as the best options on non-contending teams right now. Surely the market will change closer to July 31. Delmon Young and Quentin would probably cost at least one top 5 prospect and some filler, Chirs Young and Marlon Byrd I believe could be had for less.— Ed Gein
- It's the middle infielders and corner outfielders that are stinking it up at the plate. They scare nobody.— escapedcamden4monterey
- Media isn't putting enough heat on the front office. As has been stated earlier, the offense was a huge problem last year and went unaddressed in the off season. It's NOT going to get better. The core here needs to be shaken, and the most logical way to do that is deal Rollins. He's a free agent, hes going to want a big pay day, he getting old and he's as core as you can get. Howard and his robbery of a contract aren't going anywhere. Ibanez is stuck here unless he's outright released, no GM wants him. I would not deal Victorino.
Rollins is too comfortable, jogging to first base last night on a dropped pop up. As for Chooch, as an all around player hes highly overrated due to the lack of competition at the catching position.(His defense IS outstanding) He ONLY hits in the playoffs.This is nothing new. Chooch had a career year last year. He's 32 which is getting old for a catcher, he's not the answer.
No one one of the aces has an era under 2.00, they aren't going to pitch shut outs every game. If this team averaged 4 runs a night, we'd be on a hell of a winning streak. If no changes made; very long year for us fans.— HulkHogan - MURPH'S BLOGS ARE BETTER THAN MOST OTHER'S MAIN PIECES. LOTS OF THOUGHT, LOTS OF MEAT— READTHENREACT
- This team is old. That is the main problem. Rollins isnt getting better. Ibanez is done. Utley will be back but is on the decline. And I think that Mr. Howards best years are behind him as well. So with all of that they better hope Dom Brown can get healthy and be the player they think he is and make a trade soon for a power hitting outdfielder. Otherwise 1 World Series title is it. And that is a shame with all of the talent that has been here the last few years.
- @aonthbucks - #1 - Vasquez is a 1b/DH - where would you like him to play? He is also 29, and a career minor leaguer with very little upside. Why would I give up a P prospect and C (we don't have any depth there) for a guy who can't play the field? #2 - Young or Reyes aren't available, and if they were the Mets won't trade Reyes to the Phils. Also, are you going to give up Bastardo, Colvin, and another top prospect to get Young, who is 36? Where is Young going to play? This isn't fantasy baseball! #3 - Bourn isn't going to help this team, and is Pence available? I doubt the Phillies will unload any of their prospects for Pence. #4 - Worley has options and is cheap, and Blanton is making $8.5M - so Worley is stuck in AAA. That is baseball. #5 - I haven't seen any unrealistic expectations around Utley's return. In fact, the FO seems to be more patient about it than the fans/media. #6 - Without Victorino, and playing banged up Chooch and Polanco this team is going to struggle. The P staff will not get frustrated - they are seasoned veterans. #7 - can't steal if you can't get on base. #8 - Mayberry is the only somewhat limited protection this team has for Howard - hopefully Francisco's time is done.— dankil13
- Dankil, Vasquez plays 3B, 1B, the outfield and he catches. I'd play him at 3B and in the outfield primarily, but 1B when Howard needs a rest and let him catch in an emergency. He is only 29, played in the Mexican League and has plenty of upside potential. Have you ever seen him hit? He resembles a right-handed Ryan Howard, but he's having a better year. The Yanks would probably take the likes of Blanton or Kendrick and trade Vasquez, who is not on their 40 man roster, plus a catcher. The Yanks have nowhere to put Vasquez. Young, Reyes, Bourne and Pence are reportedly available. Young will be expendable when Hamilton returns. He could probably be had for pitching. The Mets will unload whoever they can because of their dismal financial picture. The Phils need a new shortstop. Young and Reyes play shortstop. Colvin is light years away from Philly. Gold-glover Bourne would help the Phils with his defense, bat and speed on the bases. Pence is getting too expensive for the Astros. Worley belongs in Philly now. Blanton is just being showcased so the Phils can trade him. The Phils pitching staff is already frustrated. Wouldn't you be giving up 2 runs and losing the game because your team couldn't score 3 runs? The Phils are getting injured because of their poor offense and players over-extending themselves to jumpstart the offense. The expectationas about Utley's return are very unrealistic. He has a chronic knee problem. If expectations were realistic, the Phils would have already acquired the players we're discussing. The Phils need players to get on base first and steal bases second. Rollins doesn't do this enough. That's why Reyes and Bourne are better leadoff options. I don't play fantasy baseball, but I've played plenty of the real thing.
- having watched some phillies games when i can, i see a different team from last years.But some players have the same habits of old. mr. howard still swings at pitches in the dirt when is he going to learn that the shift is ment to distract him at the plate and it works.i do not see mr lidge helping this team any more. unload him. mr blanton the same. play francisco in left and mayberry in right platoon ibanez with francisco mayberry needs to play everyday. they need to rest some of the guys sometimes right now they have no one who they can play to rest these guys. pitching can win you a lot of games but you need players to hit and score runs too.— rfklak
- Yeah, Ryan Howard stinks. Leading the league in RBI's in a lineup with 4 AAA hitters. The team is in first place in mid-May. Unless something drops into his lap, Amaro will wait to see how the Utley and Brown stories play out. If we get to July and things haven't changed, they'll be a move. Amaro has the arrogance factor, but how can you doubt a guy that's acquired the pitchers that he has the last three years. Not to mention that he still has Pat Gillick as his consiglere.— Mandela
- I like the idea of trying to trade with the Twins. They are stinking up the American League and need to shake up their team. Cuddayer would be a great fit in Philly. This organization refuses to admit failure and they hang onto has beensor bad deals. Ibanyez is through. Baez should be demored to Allentown since nobody will take him. We need a backup cateher that can hit 250 Dane can't even catch a high pitch and he is a 240 hitter at best in AAA. If our starters give up more than 1 run we lose with this lineup. Maybe Oakland is interested in Rollins ( his home town) Time to leave Philly after a terrific career but he is a liability at the plate right now.
Francisco is a 4th outfielder and a bench player period the end. We are aging and if we don't win this year then it is over for the next 5 years. Our payroll is high because of bad contracts, Ibanyez, Howard,Baez,Lidge. Key players like Madson may be leave after this year. What ever we get for Blanton is worth it. He is developing a dead arm. Our defense is good. Our starting pitching is terrific. We have a serious problem in the outfield and middle infield and even behind the plate and our middle inning and late inning bull pen is by committee. Worley should be our #4 or #5 starter not Blanton and hopefully Oswald pitches better.
You can't play good teams and win scoring one or two runs.
Our starters are going way to long and face problems in August and september. Right now Florida and atlanta are better balanced teams. their starting pitching is very good and the bullpwn is better plus they score 4-5 runs a game.
— naplesbear 
Comment removed.- We go through this every year. Last year we had the inury wave from hell and had the best record in baseball.
Anyone who is complaining this early is a whiny baby and needs a pacifier.
— bluejfk - ksam, what happened at the end of last year when their hitting came to life?
There are so many ridiculous comments made, it's almost seems unreal that we are talking about the same thing...
As for Ryan Howard, it doesn't really matter what he does, he's not going to get pitched to, and that will undoubtly look like a never-ending slump to those who can't figure something that obvious out. Howard struck out so many times because Garcia was much better than Westbrook and placing balls near the plate. That's why there were opposite results. He wasn't going to get a hit regardless.— MFPhils - Mandela- enough with the RBI thing, it is a meaningless stat for asessing an individual player's performance. Howard is not having a good year by any means and has been in decline since 2008, which is normal because position players, at least ones that aren't HGH enhanced peak between the ages of 26-28. That's why the extension got killed so much in the national media. Everyone else could see this guy was in decline, in two years he'll be a guy playing 1B who should be a DH, needs a platoon split against LHP, and also makes 25 million dollars.— Ed Gein
