Trade Deadline: What we know; What we don't know
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Trade Deadline: What we know; What we don't know
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Welcome to Arizona, where outside it feels like God left the oven door open. It is pretty amazing to me that Eagles training camp starts today, yet the talk of the town is the Phillies. And it is even more amazing to me that, despite the fact that the Phillies have won 16 of 19 games, the town could revolt at the end of the week if Roy Halladay is not introduced as a member of the club.
Regardless, the stage is set for one of the most interesting weeks in Phillies history.
Even more fun to watch than the Phillies right now is the game of 1-on-1 taking place between J.P. Ricciardi and Ruben Amaro Jr. Make no mistake - this is Amaro's first big test as a general manager. As hot as the Phillies are, they know they are taking a big leap of faith if they go into the postseason with Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton as their top two starters. And they know that if they land Roy Halladay, they will likely be the odds-on favorites to represent the National League in the World Series in each of the next two seasons.
Now, there is a whole lot of conjecture masquerading as fact when it comes to the Phillies situation. So I thought that I'd start the week off by breaking down what we know thus far, and what we need to keep our eyes on over the next six days:
1) We know that the Blue Jays are playing it smart by acting as if they have all the leverage in the world. On paper, Toronto does have all the leverage. Not only do they have several different partners from which to choose, they have the freedom to sit out this dance if they so choose. After all, Halladay is the team's most popular player, provides a noticable draw at the gate, is signed through next season, and surely can be moved in the offseason. Toronto is trying to say, "Look, we really don't want to move Halladay. But if you give us a reason to move him, we will." Hence, an asking price that starts with J.A. Happ and Kyle Drabek.
2) We don't know if the Blue Jays actually have that leverage. From the time Ricciardi "let it slip" to Ken Rosenthal that Halladay was available, he has acted and sounded much like a man who is under orders to shed salary and shed it now. For the first couple days of Halladay's availability, Ricciardi spoke with every media outlet short of the Weekly Reader, insisting to each one that the Blue Jays would only listen, yet in doing so sounding like a man who needs to make a deal. We won't actually know what the case is until Halladay is traded or July 31st comes and goes without a deal. The Phillies are obviously hoping that Ricciardi is bluffing when he calls the chances of his ace being dealt "very slim." If keeping Halladay is a legitimate option, then the Blue Jays could very well hold out for a package of Happ, Drabek and top position prospect Dominic Brown.
3) We know Halladay will have value in the offseason. Obviously, an extra half a season increases his value for a team looking to trade for him. But he'll still command a haul if he is dealt after this season rather than during it.
4) We don't know how much that value will decrease. Keep in mind that the Blue Jays might have more bidders for Halladay in the offseason, when teams have more pay-roll flexibility and more freedom to allocate that flexibility. Let's say the Yankees or Red Sox don't win the World Series this season. Don't you think that would convince them to jump in the pool? The Rangers also have some contracts coming off the books, and payroll flexibility is said to be a big reason why they might not make a serious play for him at this point. So while Halladay's value might drop in the Blue Book after this season, the demand for him could very well counteract that depreciation. At the same time, the availability of other aces could increase the supply. Brandon Webb, Cliff Lee and Javier Vazquez are three starters whose contracts expire after the 2010 season.
5) We know Ricciardi is on the hot seat. Contracts for Vernon Wells, Alex Rios and B.J. Ryan are looking ill-advised at this point. A regime change is a very strong possibility.
6) We don't know how that is affecting the Halladay negotiations. There is a very good chance that Ricciardi was told by his bosses to see what he can get for Halladay. And there is a good chance that Ricciardi views a Halladay trade as the only thing that can save his job. But there is a good chance the only way it can save his job is if it is an absolute no-brainer for the Blue Jays. A no-brainer along the lines of Happ, Drabek and Brown. And there is a good chance that unless Ricciardi lands a no-brainer, his bosses will decide to keep Halladay for the rest of the season, bring in a GM to oversee the rebuilding effort, and allow him to play the market in the offseason.
7) We know the Phillies are considering other options. They scouted Cliff Lee last night, and have kept eyes on Seattle lefty Jarrod Washburn. Righthander Jon Garland, whom the team will face tonight, could be available.
8) We don't know how much pressure Amaro feels to add another starter. Keep in mind that Halladay was not even an option a month ago. And while every body is punch drunk right now on the prospect of adding Halladay, the Phillies were still a strong World Series contender before they had the chance to add him. There is a chance that Amaro decides that the team's best strategy is to fortify the bullpen with an arm or two. That would leave Pedro Martinez and Jamie Moyer a chance to establish himself as the team's fourth-best starter. And the Phillies would then count on Hamels finding his groove for the season's final two months, and Happ and Blanton to continue pitching the way they have for the past two months.
9) We know the Phillies think Kyle Drabek could be in the rotation as soon as next season. This is the biggest reason why the club does not want to trade him. A rotation of Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, Drabek and Moyer is something the Phillies envision as a possibility for next season.
10) We don't know if the Phillies think Drabek could be in the rotation or bullpen by the end of August. Obviously, it isn't a best-case scenario. But if the organization feels that standing pat and calling on Drabek in a month is an option, much like the Red Sox did with Jonathan Papelbon in 2005 and the Yankees did with Joba Chamberlain in 2007, it would contribute to the hesitancy they have to trade him as well as alleviate some of the pressure to add another starter.
4 for 1 As a Phillie fan I want Halladay - to match with lefty Hamels and the late 20's core of my team however the man isn't 27, and he'll test free agency in a season and a half, then we have nothing. Now we have several guys who are about ready but can't crack our line up, namely Jason Donald - if you like Chase Utley you'll like him, Michael Taylor, who I can't believe they would include, over Brown except that Brown is further away, and Carrasco, who was hot last year but who is making adjustments to the adjustments batters are making on him, he is sturdy with stuff. Happ you already want - we may miss him most since he has been winning regularly at the major league level and Halladay may merely replace his wins the remainder of the season.— robinlupe- Brandon Duckworth.
- Having watched since 1946 and having mostly FRUSTRATION for many years I hope the Phils go for the deal for Halladay. It is great to think that Drabek can be great but he already has had surgery. I would rather go for it now. I can't wait another 27 years. I'll be 100 and my heart can't take it!!GO NOW PHILLIES!!!
- Why not take a lesson from our friends to the north? The Mets decimated their farm system to get free agents designed to help them win "now". You've seen what that's gotten them, right? If Halliday doesn't cost too much, get him. If the Blue Jays want an arm, a leg, and a few of someone's teeth, take the pass, talk to the Indians, get Cliff Lee, and keep it moving. I'm betting that with a combination of his stuff and the run support that Lee could get from the Phillies, he'd be more than up to the task of beating the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays. Most importantly, he'd make Albert Pujols and Manny Ramirez look like mere mortals, too.— Raiderfan
- It comes down to who is toeing the rubber in October. Doc would go against the other team's # 1, Hollywood the #2, Joey Bulldog the #3, Lopez/Martinez/Moyer (whomever is pitching the best at that time) would get the other team's # 4. If we don't make the trade, Its Hollywood vs #1, Joey Bulldog vs #2, Happ vs #3, Lopez/Martinez/Moyer vs #4. Now which looks better? That is what I thought. Ruby Jr, make the trade.— Reddgie Noble
- And what's up with all the Moyer hate? I had a friend who lived in Seattle and because Moyer was one of only two pitchers that won consistently with the Mariners (Freddy Garcia was the other one), I was excited to see the Phillies make the deal for him. As a 45-year-old, it made me happy to see someone representing for the 40-somethings. He may not be the best pitcher on the squad to some of you, but when you talk about who's got the most wins on the Phillies, there's only one name you can say. If the Phillies are smart, Moyer becomes their new pitching coach the minute he retires.— Raiderfan
- The Jays waiting till the offseason is bad business. There may be more teams, but just how many more? The teams with the budget concerns aren't going to overpay for this guy. The trade partners will be practically the same. His no-trade clause isn't going away and he wants to play for a winner. In the off-season, he could tell Toronto that he will play out the season and become a free agent. That GM is really playing with fire.— fly eagles fly
- Redgie Noble, Moyer will not be toeing the rubber in any playoff series, unless we're up 3 games to none. Doc, then Hollywood, then Blanton, and repeat. You know this, I've been telling you this for weeks (he's my brother, but with comments like that, he may be the mailman's kid)....It seems easy for all of you to think forward years and worry about contending every year, but it's egotistical to take last year's championship and think we're good enough to sit on our hands. Every team in the league is going to immediately worry about meeting up with the Phils in the playoffs, and how they are going to contend with top notch pitching and the best lineup in the league, who also plays great Defense.— Bleue
- I wish the Phillies had traded more "can't miss prospects" for Cy Young winners. Then I would not have had to suffer through Bruce Ruffin, 1987-1991; Pat Combs, 1990-1992; Tyler Green, 1993-1998 (yes, I know he went to the 1995 ASG); Wayne Gomes 1997-2000... shall I go on? Trade Happ. Trade Drabek. I want another parade!— smel4727
- R. Lopez is doing a solid job. Not sold on Pedro. Forget Moyer. The age of cleaning out your farm for a one or two year guy is over. Hopefully, the Phillies brass will do the smart thing. Not sure Happ and Drabek is that smart. PS. Yes we will need a closer, not a knock on Lidge but there was a reason Houston let him go.— oldBird
- pardon me,Phlly fans, but common opinion here in Toronto is that there will be a deal, and knowing Pat Gillick and Ricciardi, Gillick will win the deal and Ricciardi, the pale imitation of Beane and Gillick, will mess it up and will immediately be told to pack his bags. Whatever the Jays end up with in terms of players will then have been worth it. As the signs in the stands here have said, 'Keep Doc, Trade Ricciardi',but that isn't going to happen because the extremely wealthy ownership here won't pay...something about decent management taking care of their money, I think. Doc gives you three Series in 3 years...do it now or wait a lifetime forever for another chance like this...and Gillick has repeated before and understands the point.— harold#1
- The league will figure out Haap and Drabek was after thought when he had his surgery. If we have trust in our farm system, we will draft another Drabek. Trade them now and lets three peat...and why s Joe savery not a high end prospect...did we miss on him..— mac2nike
- I disagree that happ and drabek would be a wash. Despite Happ performing extremely well after being brought up and excelling in high pressure situations, Drabek is regarded as having top of the rotation stuff. I'm not saying Happ is necessarily another Kendrick, but I would prefer to keep the more talented player if it came down to one or the other leaving the team.— raube8
- do the deal, this is a no brainer, i just hope the parade route is different the next couple yearrs!!— eagles2010
- Curveball aka Momma Murphy, David has less of a clue than the moron Cataldi on WIP in the morning. Truth be told if it wasn't for Al Lessganti and Rhea Hughes Douglas he would be the worst Philly sports figure in the market. Momma Curveball did you take Davie's picture?— rockinrob
