Five questions: Making sense of Howard's new deal
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Five questions: Making sense of Howard's new deal
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
There is plenty of info to come on the five-year, $125 million contract extension Ryan Howard agreed to earlier today. For all the nuts and bolts of the deal, see our previous post. In the meantime, we'll look at some FAQs concerning the deal.
This started as three questions, and will likely grow throughout the day.
1. What does this mean?
It means that the Phillies are planning on building around Howard, Roy Halladay and Chase Utley for the next four seasons. Those three players are the only ones on the roster signed through the 2013 season. Utley's contract expires after 2013. The Phillies have a club option on Halladay for 2014. Howard, obviously, is signed through 2016.
Here is the money the Phillies have allocated through the end of Howard's deal, according to Daily News records:
2012: $82.75 million to Halladay, Howard, Utley, Victorino, Blanton, Polanco, Ruiz (Lidge option; Hamels, Happ, Francisco arb eligible)
2013: $55.0 million to Halladay, Howard, Utley (Polanco, Ruiz club options; Happ, Francisco arb eligible)
2014: $45 million to Howard and Halladay (assuming option vests)
2015: $25 million to Howard
2016: $25 million to Howard
Jimmy Rollins is signed through 2011.
2. How does Howard's contract compare?
The market was set last year by the Yankees when they signed Mark Teixeira to an eight year, $180 million contract that runs from 2009-16. Like Teixeira's, Howard's contract runs through 2016. Like Teixeira, he will be 36 years old in the final guaranteed year of his deal. Howard's contract guarantees him $12.5 million more than Teixeira will earn over the last five years of his deal, from his 32nd birthday through his 36th.
One key difference is that Teixeira has a full no-trade clause. Howard has a limited no-trade clause (at this point, I'm not sure how limited), which for the Phillies could wind up being more valuable than $12.5 million.
On the other hand, Teixeira's deal was signed when he was on the open market. The Phillies weren't negotiating against anybody else with Howard's deal.
Teixeira deal
2009 (29): $20.0
2010 (30): $20.0
2011 (31): $22.5
2012 (32): $22.5
2013 (33): $22.5
2014 (34): $22.5
2015 (35): $22.5
2016 (36): $22.5
Howard deal
2012 (32): $20.0
2013 (33): $20.0
2014 (34): $25.0
2015 (35): $25.0
2016 (36): $25.0
2017 (37): $10.0 (guaranteed)/$23.0 (if option exercised)
3. How does the contract affect the Phillies ability to re-sign Jayson Werth?
Not as much as you might think. It might affect their willingness to give Werth a long-term deal at his market rate, but Howard's contract does not eliminate the possibility. The extension takes effect in 2012, when the Phillies now have $84.25 million guaranteed to Roy Halladay, Joe Blanton, Chase Utley, Placido Polanco, Shane Victorino and Carlos Ruiz, along with a $1.5 million buyout to Brad Lidge if they don't pick up his $12.5 million option. This number does not include Cole Hamels, who will be eligible for arbitration after making $9.5 million in 2011. Hamels is eligible for free agency after 2012. It also doesn't include salaries for J.A. Happ and Ben Francisco, both of whom will be arbitration eligible.
So the Phillies still have plenty of payroll flexibility in 2012. The Howard deal does not affect their flexibility for next season, when they have $130.85 million guaranteed to 15 players.
The doubt about the Phillies' ability to sign Werth centers around next year, since they have just $9.15 million of available cash before they hit this year's Opening Day roster total of about $140 million, and 10 active roster vacancies to fill.
4. What was that anguished scream echoing across the Mississippi River I just heard?
That would be John Mozeliak, general manager of the Cardinals. Perhaps part of the Phillies' strategy was to either get Albert Pujols traded out of the National League or bankrupt St. Louis in the years to come. Regardless of what you think of the extension, the Phillies set an early market for future free agents like Pujols and Prince Fielder a year-and-a-half before they had to.
5. So why now?
It's going to be a big question posed to Ruben Amaro Jr. later on this evening. I'm not surprised that they decided to sign Howard now, but I would've thought that any deal would come only as a result of some obvious concessions on Howard's part. I thought there might be a chance that the two sides re-worked these next two seasons as well, giving the Phillies a better opportunity to sign a guy like Jayson Werth. Perhaps cutting Howard's salary a tad next season and then adding it on in the form of deferred money or some back-loaded years.
I am sorry, Murph, but this strikes me as one of the most absurd contracts in years. Howard has worked very heard the last two off-seasons to get in shape and improve his game, which is commendable. But sluggers of his body type have almost never aged well, and he does not have the defensive strength or all-around hitting ability of a Pujols or Tex. Plus, as you pointed out, the Phillies had him locked up for two years. Why do this now? His numbers look much better on the surface than they really are because of the high RBI count that is mostly a function of the lineup hitting around him, and it appears that Amaro was duped by the kind of stats that fans love but baseball executives are paid to see through. And, oh yeah, the Phillies do not exactly have the hefty financial resources of the Yankees to overpay for a first baseman. Moyer… Ibanez… Howard… who’s next in line for a silly contract???— PhillyGuyInDC- I like that thinking...— phigglesfan75
- R U listening Joe Banner! This is how U build championship teams!— BirdsSuck
- Great article as always murph. The contract makes sense because they are still building around their core players and Howard has improved over the years as a defensive player and has gotten in shape. If Jayson werth leaves Dominic brown could take his place. I know that's a big if but it is not a long shot. The phillies continue to move in the right direction.— nilsen
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- Wow folks, you whine when they sign 'em, whine when they let 'em go. Howard is one of the faces of the franchise, why the complaints?! Dude earned it.— Timmy
- i love this deal. it's a bargain. sounds crazy but, he is not going to slow down the next two years... which would have made the free agent price higher. sometimes, you have to part ways with star players. jayson werth is a star player. i think the bigger issue is rollins. what if rollins plays this year and next at a very high level. does he pack up and leave? the deal he is playing under now is a super bargain for the phils. i am happy for ruben and ryan howard. how the next few years pans out will be fun to watch. i bet the owners are wishing they built CBP for 50,000 fans.— referees
- Pitching wins and if the Phillies had that much money they should have signed Cliff Lee to a contract extension. The Yankees did not win the World Series because of Mark Teixeira. Teixeira hit .167 in the 2009 ALDS, .222 in the 2009 ALCS and .136 in the 2009 World Series. The Yankees won the World Series primarily because of Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte.— Gnip Gnop
- Anybody else REALLY glad that PhillyGuyInDC isn't the Phils' GM? Another homegrown, All-Star locked-up long term... it's a lot fun being a Phils fan these days.— The Pack Leader
- krakatoa.... actually minus a couple games the bullpen has been one of the best in the NL. It's a good thing you have a crystal ball and already know how Lidge is going to perform. Must be all the baseball experts in the organization are incorrect. Great move by the Phils, waiting 2 years would have cost them dearly. Howard has shown his desire to get better after signing his first contract.— bobf876
- PhillyguyInDC are you really saying that siging the best HR hitter and the RBI machine in the MLB Yes that includes Pujols is a bad Idea? Does everyone in DC have moronic opinions? Bottom line is he hits 50 plus homers a year (that doesnt have anything to do with his lineup around him) averages what 125 RBI a year and not to mention have you seen the mans body transform from a fat big man to a cut big man? He's a fan favorite a great person and he deserves every penny if not more. Chase Howard and Halladay = World Series Contenders for the next four years. Get a clue!— Phillyphan26
- Murph, we chatted a while back when I took issue with your notion of the Phillies reaching a revenue ceiling. This contract indicates that the guys signing the checks probably see it my way. They expect their revenues to grow if they keep putting a winning product on the field, as it should.— jtj06
- This is awesome, I can't believe we locked him up. I seriously thought he was going to wind up in the AL East.— phillyfan#1
- I just loved that it wiped out all of the news about the Eagles draft. Ha ha.— AreaMan
