Five questions: Making sense of Howard's new deal
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Five questions: Making sense of Howard's new deal
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
There is plenty of info to come on the five-year, $125 million contract extension Ryan Howard agreed to earlier today. For all the nuts and bolts of the deal, see our previous post. In the meantime, we'll look at some FAQs concerning the deal.
This started as three questions, and will likely grow throughout the day.
1. What does this mean?
It means that the Phillies are planning on building around Howard, Roy Halladay and Chase Utley for the next four seasons. Those three players are the only ones on the roster signed through the 2013 season. Utley's contract expires after 2013. The Phillies have a club option on Halladay for 2014. Howard, obviously, is signed through 2016.
Here is the money the Phillies have allocated through the end of Howard's deal, according to Daily News records:
2012: $82.75 million to Halladay, Howard, Utley, Victorino, Blanton, Polanco, Ruiz (Lidge option; Hamels, Happ, Francisco arb eligible)
2013: $55.0 million to Halladay, Howard, Utley (Polanco, Ruiz club options; Happ, Francisco arb eligible)
2014: $45 million to Howard and Halladay (assuming option vests)
2015: $25 million to Howard
2016: $25 million to Howard
Jimmy Rollins is signed through 2011.
2. How does Howard's contract compare?
The market was set last year by the Yankees when they signed Mark Teixeira to an eight year, $180 million contract that runs from 2009-16. Like Teixeira's, Howard's contract runs through 2016. Like Teixeira, he will be 36 years old in the final guaranteed year of his deal. Howard's contract guarantees him $12.5 million more than Teixeira will earn over the last five years of his deal, from his 32nd birthday through his 36th.
One key difference is that Teixeira has a full no-trade clause. Howard has a limited no-trade clause (at this point, I'm not sure how limited), which for the Phillies could wind up being more valuable than $12.5 million.
On the other hand, Teixeira's deal was signed when he was on the open market. The Phillies weren't negotiating against anybody else with Howard's deal.
Teixeira deal
2009 (29): $20.0
2010 (30): $20.0
2011 (31): $22.5
2012 (32): $22.5
2013 (33): $22.5
2014 (34): $22.5
2015 (35): $22.5
2016 (36): $22.5
Howard deal
2012 (32): $20.0
2013 (33): $20.0
2014 (34): $25.0
2015 (35): $25.0
2016 (36): $25.0
2017 (37): $10.0 (guaranteed)/$23.0 (if option exercised)
3. How does the contract affect the Phillies ability to re-sign Jayson Werth?
Not as much as you might think. It might affect their willingness to give Werth a long-term deal at his market rate, but Howard's contract does not eliminate the possibility. The extension takes effect in 2012, when the Phillies now have $84.25 million guaranteed to Roy Halladay, Joe Blanton, Chase Utley, Placido Polanco, Shane Victorino and Carlos Ruiz, along with a $1.5 million buyout to Brad Lidge if they don't pick up his $12.5 million option. This number does not include Cole Hamels, who will be eligible for arbitration after making $9.5 million in 2011. Hamels is eligible for free agency after 2012. It also doesn't include salaries for J.A. Happ and Ben Francisco, both of whom will be arbitration eligible.
So the Phillies still have plenty of payroll flexibility in 2012. The Howard deal does not affect their flexibility for next season, when they have $130.85 million guaranteed to 15 players.
The doubt about the Phillies' ability to sign Werth centers around next year, since they have just $9.15 million of available cash before they hit this year's Opening Day roster total of about $140 million, and 10 active roster vacancies to fill.
4. What was that anguished scream echoing across the Mississippi River I just heard?
That would be John Mozeliak, general manager of the Cardinals. Perhaps part of the Phillies' strategy was to either get Albert Pujols traded out of the National League or bankrupt St. Louis in the years to come. Regardless of what you think of the extension, the Phillies set an early market for future free agents like Pujols and Prince Fielder a year-and-a-half before they had to.
5. So why now?
It's going to be a big question posed to Ruben Amaro Jr. later on this evening. I'm not surprised that they decided to sign Howard now, but I would've thought that any deal would come only as a result of some obvious concessions on Howard's part. I thought there might be a chance that the two sides re-worked these next two seasons as well, giving the Phillies a better opportunity to sign a guy like Jayson Werth. Perhaps cutting Howard's salary a tad next season and then adding it on in the form of deferred money or some back-loaded years.
flyerrichs - utley is signed for four more years... they've got a solid starting 4 locked up for as long, too. how is that taking a backseat? Amaro has committed big dollars to send a message that utley, howard and halladay will be the core of this team for years to come. He's looking beyond a one-year plan revolved around 2 starting pitchers. Come trade deadline when he has the flexibility to fix the REAL need on this team -- the bullpen -- that money will come from the Cliff Lee fund (who btw still hasn't made a pitch this season)- Sliced bread: Pujols is the best, but objectively, Howard is definitely a top 25 position player, and just as important, he puts fannies in the seats. This was a smart move by the Phillies. This says "we want to keep our core players for the long run". The guy is a solid citizen, a more than solid ballplayer, and a face of the franchise. Methinks you doth protest too much.— OBLawyer
- Phillyphan26, please, do not waste your breath on that idiot---PhillyGuyInDC has no clue what he is posting---he is a rather homely single guy who is really just a jealous Eagle fan trying to get some attention---since mom ignores him now, he surfs over here to get noticed— will_wonders_never_cease
He is only worth the money if he continues to produce. Think he would have taken a deal of $50 million/year if he produces and $0 if he doesn't? Of course not. He will collect his $125 million even if he stands up to bat and never swings again. All the while, some overachieving younger player will collect less than $1 million. That's the problem with guaranteed contracts. This contract could turn out to be an albatross for the organization. Lee would have been a better gamble.- So youre paying him 25 million to hit RH pitching, how much will you have to pay his platoon mate in 2 years?— Sliced Bread is the best thing since Matt Wieters
- Try to think of some of this new contract money as money Howard maybe should have been rewarded with for his production up to this point. One could argue that he has been underpaid for his previous productive seasons and his impact on the team's success. We do not know how productive he will be in the future, however he is not a flash in the pan and appears to be very willing to work hard at improving his game. Players of his caliber sell tickets. Still,the economics of professional baseball boggles the mind.— Beck
- First Philadelphia is not a small town market. This town supported two teams before and for over 50 yrs. Second if they didn't sigh Howard then he was going to walk and the possibilites didn't look good. Does anyone think for a minute the Cards wouldn't go out of their way to sign him? That could be ugly come playoff time. I have watched a lot of baseball over the last 57 yrs and Ryan Howard is in the top 5 for strength. When Ryan learns the other fine points of hitting he will be awesome. As yet he is still not there, even though he always leads the league in RBIs and HRs. The contract comes down to one decision really. Do you want him hitting for you or against you? Only an idiot or a fool would not have signed him. I see them either trading Werth for someone to help the club now since Rubin emptied the farm especially if Lidge and Romero stink the place up.— Wally 24
- stupid contract for the most over rated team in baseball!! Unless the Phils take their payroll to $200 million, this team can't win cause they ain't got pitching!!! And, like A-Rod, Howard was pathetic in the World Series. Broke records for strikeouts!!— littlerico
First promotion of the 2011 season --- $5 Hot Dog Night !!!— WylieG- Hey Randy Miller???????? I thought you said he was "Outta here" after this contract was up????????????— Philly4fanDoc
It seems like the Phils overpaid, but one thing about his RBIs and their being "a function of the lineup hitting around him". For the past 3 years, he has driven in the highest PERCENTAGE of the runners who are on base when he comes to bat. So yes, he gets more opportunities than most, but no one capitalizes on them like Howard.— schmenkman- Creative financial minds will (should) figure a way to finance long term debt to sign Werth. Issue bonds, take 10 yr low interest note, empty Piggy banks, renogiate hot dog contract, or check with Chris Dodd. There must be a way. Get on this Murph or we will recall Andy.— mick314
So, is the back door being left unlocked for J-Roll's departure? There is a lot of *defensive* talent around here for that position.— baworks- PhillyGuyInDC - I agree with the gist of your argument. For those of you who are lambasting him, I'm not sure what you guys do, but anyone who negotiates for a living (salesman, lawyer, business exec) knows the first rule of negotiations is never concede a point unless you receive a concession in return. Howard was going to ask for A-ROD money on the open market in 2012. RAJ gave it to him 2 years early. But what did he receive in return? Cost certainty? That's not a concession on Howard's part, and I'd argue that unless salaries are forecasted to rise significantly in the next 2 years above the 25 mil mark, and the number of teams that can pay any player 25 mil increases, that Howard would not have received more than 25 mil two years from now anyway. So the cost projections are the same either way. Howard also seems to have won on the length of contract point. The only thing that RAJ may have received back is the "limited no-trade", which arguably could be big later on. But I think it was premature to do this deal this early without getting a home-team discount.— CupOrBust
- Cup or Bust, he did give concessions. Outside of the fools on this blog, he is considered a top 5 position player. If the Phillies waited two more seasons he would have gotten closer to 30 million a year but more importantly, he would have gotten the same 5 year contract bringing him to the age of 38/39. The Phillies, by signing him now, have locked him up for his prime and can look to move on when he is 36. Remember, he was already making so close to 20 mil a season for the next to seasons that nothing has changed except the Phillies don't have to be locked into him when he is really old.— UncleStosh
