The argument for keeping Joe Blanton
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The argument for keeping Joe Blanton
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Prevailing sentiment around baseball is that the Phillies will need to eat some money if they expect to trade Joe Blanton and the $17 million he is owed over the next two seasons. That's exactly why it might make more sense for RAJ and company to hang on to the veteran righthander. Problem is, the Phillies might feel like they have to trade Blanton in order to save on salary for the 2011 season. According to my calculations, the Phillies already have about $158 million committed to 18 players, and that's before arbitration raises to Ben Francisco and Kyle Kendrick that should total at least $3 million. They are still well short of the luxury tax threshold, so that isn't a concern. But nobody really knows what their internal budget is.
For the moment, though, let's pretend that dealing Blanton is more a case of financial prudence than downright necessity.
In that case, there is an argument you can make for keeping Blanton around.
And because we like to play Devil's Advocate, here is that argument:
1) His value could be down
The biggest problem for the Phillies right now could be getting a fair return on a player who is coming off a season that, statistically, was the worst of his career. Blanton logged career lows in starts (28) and innings (175.2), posted a 4.82 ERA that tied his career-high, and made just one appearance in the playoffs (a loss in Game 4 of the NLCS in which he allowed three runs in 4 2/3 innings).
Furthermore, the rest of the sport has to assume that the Phillies are determined to trade Blanton, which further limits their bargaining position when it comes to an eventual return (the combination of salary relief and personnel acquisition).
The Phillies know that Blanton was not as bad as his numbers indicate. Much of it had to do with the oblique injury he suffered in spring training. He spent his first month back struggling with his mechanics, rebounding to post a 3.92 ERA in his last 21 appearances (20 starts).
But overall numbers are overall numbers, and a general manager could find it a tough PR-sell if he pays a big price (in dollars/talent) for a guy with a Blanton's 2010 stat line.
2) $8.5 million per season is not an outrageous price for a dependable starter
Here are Blanton's numbers over the previous three seasons: 92 GS, 568.2 IP, 4.51 ERA, 92 ERA+, 6.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9
The following are contracts that have been signed by starting pitchers this offseason in years and guaranteed dollars, followed by their numbers over the previous three seasons:
Jorge De La Rosa 2/21.5 million
75 GS, 436.2 IP, 4.49 ERA, 104 ERA+, 8.9 K/9, 4.1 BB/9
Brett Myers 2/21.0
73 GS, 484.1 IP, 3.94 ERA, 105 ERA+, 7.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9
Jake Westbrook 2/16.5*
*Westbrook started just five games in 2008 and then missed all of 2009 following surgery. His final 2010 numbers (33 GS, 4.22 ERA, 202.2 IP, 5.7 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 92 ERA+) included a strong finish after switching leagues from Cleveland to St. Louis, where he started 12 games and posted a 4-4 record, 3.48 ERA and 113 ERA+.
Hiroki Kuroda 1/12.0
82 GS, 497.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 111 ERA+, 6.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9
Kevin Correia 2/8.0
78 GS, 453.0 IP, 4.91 ERA, 80 ERA+, 6.4 K/9, 3.5 BB/9
Javier Vazquez 1/7.0
91 GS, 585.0 IP, 4.17 ERA, 104 ERA+, 8.6 K/9, 2.6 BB/9
Jon Garland 1/5.0
98 GS, 600.2 IP, 4.12 ERA, 101 ERA+, 5.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9
Aaron Harang 1/4.0
75 GS, 458.1 IP, 4.71 ERA, 90 ERA+, 7.4 K/9, 2.6 BB/9
Vicente Padilla 1/2.0
70 GS, 413.1 IP, 4.49 ERA, 96 ERA+, 6.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9
As you can see, the market is difficult to read.
If you are Ruben Amaro Jr., you are looking at the deal Jake Westbrook signed and seeing it as a comparable.
Westbrook's career numbers are almost identical to Blanton's:
Westbrook: 193 GS (233 APP), 1,273.0 IP, 4.29 ERA, 101 ERA+, 5.0 K/9, 2.8 BB/9
Blanton: 190 GS (195 APP), 1,202.1 IP, 4.30 ERA, 99 ERA+, 5.8 K/9, 2.5 BB/9
If you are another GM, you are looking at Garland as a comparable.
Garland's contract features $4.5 million in base pay ($3.5 million in 2011 and a $1 million bonus in 2012), but can be worth up to $16.525 million over two years based on innings incentives in 2011 and an option for 2012 that vests if he reaches 190 innings in '11 and doesn't land on the DL in September with a right arm injury.
Long story short, if Garland pitches 190 innings next season, he'll be guaranteed at least $16 million over two years (and will get another $500,000 if he pitches 190 innings in 2012). That is pretty similar to the $17 million Blanton is guaranteed.
To put that in perspective, Garland has pitched at least 190 innings in each of his first nine full seasons in the majors. Blanton, meanwhile, logged at least 190 innings in each of his first five full seasons before finishing 2010 with 175 2/3.
Both contracts - Garland and Westbrook - will pay the same amount ($16.5 million) if the players fulfil their career norms over the next couple seasons. The difference, of course, is the Dodgers are only guaranteed to pay Garland $5 million if he struggles. The Cardinals are guaranteed to pay Westbrook $16.5 million, whether he makes one start or 100.
Regardless, the market price for a guy who logs 190 innings and posts an average-to-slightly-below-average ERA is not a heck of a lot less than $8.5 million.
3) In addition to having a rotation that is better than that of most fantasy teams (seriously, show me the fantasy squad that had Halladay, Hamels, Oswalt and Lee in it last year), the Phillies could have one of the most impressive pools of organizational depth in the NL.
Assuming everybody stays healthy, the Phillies can clearly survive with a fifth starter who is a liability. But that is a big assumption to make, particularly when a team has already invested so much in making it back to the postseason for a fifth straight season.
Let's say one of the Big 4 suffers an injury that sidelines him for an extended period of time. Suddenly, the Phillies would be left with a rotation that features both Kyle Kendrick and Vance Worley. That's not to say either of those players would definitely be liabilities. But Worley has started one big league game in his career, and Kendrick posted a 4.81 ERA and averaged about 5 2/3 innings per start last season.
With Blanton in the fold, the Phillies would be able to fill an injury by plugging in Blanton, who finished last year as the No. 4 starter and was the No. 3 guy the two years they went to the World Series.
4) There is no expiration date on potential deals
Blanton's value could always improve. Let's say Blanton has a bounce-back season, and Kendrick continues the improvement he showed last season, and the Phillies stay healthy through the first few months. Pitching is always in demand midseason, and the Phillies could very well end up getting a better return at that point. The biggest risk is that Blanton does not have a bounce-back year, but he is only 30 years old, and has a track record of dependability. And what if Kendrick doesn't improve, or the Phillies don't stay healthy? Well, at that point they would need a guy like Blanton, and rather than having to scramble to acquire one at the trade deadline, they'd already have him.
Certainly, if the Phillies can swing a deal and land a return that is commesurate with their evaluation of Blanton's track record and his potential over the next couple of years, they are in a position to do so.
But pitching is a valuable commodity, regardless of the amount you already have. And if the Phillies can't get solid value, and are forced to eat a sizeable chunk of Blanton's contract, holding on to him might be their best option.
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say what you want about joe, the man is an innings eater. when he's on, he's as good as anyone out there. i think he's a good no. 5 starter and someone we need to hang on to. dump ibanez and kendrick. that should help out.— Heckler
Good points, David. I don't see the rush. They won't save enough in salary to justify just unloading a good 5th starter. I'm not that high on Kendrick. Worley might turn out really good, but we haven't seen enough of him at major league level.— Colombia- I've always liked Joe Blanton. I think he's a good middle of the rotation guy, and a great back of the rotation guy. I think last year was tough for him mostly because of the injury, and he could bounce back to be very solid for the next few years. That being said, if the Phillies trade him to cut salary, I won't be mad. They got Cliff Lee, so they can do what they have to do. If they eat more than a few million of his contract though, I'll be a little disappointed.— padillaflotilla
- I'd deal Kendrick, Raul, and Howard before Blanton. Raul and Howard would be dumping salary, while Kendrick could be the value trade for what we need (infield depth, catching depth, outfield depth).
- i would not trade blanton, at this point, unless i could get what i thought was a good RH bat... i would consider trading him at the trade deadline; when you could probably get more for him.
- With Blanton as your #5 you could be looking at a historic season ... maybe 110 wins. Name a better 5th starter! The guy has been dependable since he got here, and good to very good the 2nd half of last year. You all seem to forget the Adam Eaton days. That's what you're looking at with Kendrick as your #5. Adam Eaton. I'd rather keep Joe and try to make history. Besides the guy has been a good soldier, hit a HR in the world series and for the most part has given solid starts when they were needed most. He deserves our support and a shot to run with this ridiculous foursome that has been assembled.— lefty1117
- Blanton is a innings eater and you can do worst than him at No.5 and his money. Only trade him and eat part of the contract if you are getting something you need in return, like a solid right-handed bat or left-handed reliever (Reye doesn't count), or really solid prospects (not the bag of beans the Phillies got from Seattle last year).— 76er
- Blanton does pitch well in the second half of the year and late during the regular season last year, he was putting up some of the better numbers on the staff.— 76er
- I'd hang on to him ... injuries occur on every team.— Grazman
- Kingofpoker and SOTX: We need one more righthanded outfielder, who can play center if Victorino goes down. No one is saying -- I didn't say -- a Corey Hart, All-Star kind of outfielder. A fourth or fifth outfielder who can spot start or more if Victorino or Ibanez goes down. Someone like Mike Cameron in Boston, who's the odd man out next year in an outfield of Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury and the ever-loveable JD Drew. The Sox have Ryan Kalish as their young fourth outfielder; he did fine in the Bigs the second half of last year. They don't need Cameron, he's in a contract year and he's 38 -- may be willing to accept a limited role at this point.— eman
I like the Star Wars connotation : R2C2 and JoeBeeWon. The latter needs to come into spring training 20 lbs lighter and gradually add weight as the season wears on, instead of coming in fat and trying to lose weight from the getgo.— RAS- Your point that his salary is not out of line for a dependable starter is absolutely correct. Of course some teams are going to say that the Phillies will need to eat some salary. What would you expect them to say? I think Blanton would fit right in at a place like Washington, D.C. The Philies should be able to get a few pretty good young players for him.— JayW
- joe the lumber is more than a serviceable starter in a league full of mediocrity. ship him out for some right handed thunder and we'll get this thing rolling again.— snakeplissken
- I agree that it would be nice to keep Blanton. The more our starters can keep the bullpen off the field the better and Blanton can help with that. I like Blanton over Kendrick, Worley or Bastardo (if he came back to a starter role). In 2008 Blanton was one of our more consistent pitchers. I like the article, thanks!— Bob20Philly
- Paul SoTx--This proves you are not even qualified to be the Assistant to the traveling secretary of a baseball team
