The argument for keeping Joe Blanton
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The argument for keeping Joe Blanton
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Prevailing sentiment around baseball is that the Phillies will need to eat some money if they expect to trade Joe Blanton and the $17 million he is owed over the next two seasons. That's exactly why it might make more sense for RAJ and company to hang on to the veteran righthander. Problem is, the Phillies might feel like they have to trade Blanton in order to save on salary for the 2011 season. According to my calculations, the Phillies already have about $158 million committed to 18 players, and that's before arbitration raises to Ben Francisco and Kyle Kendrick that should total at least $3 million. They are still well short of the luxury tax threshold, so that isn't a concern. But nobody really knows what their internal budget is.
For the moment, though, let's pretend that dealing Blanton is more a case of financial prudence than downright necessity.
In that case, there is an argument you can make for keeping Blanton around.
And because we like to play Devil's Advocate, here is that argument:
1) His value could be down
The biggest problem for the Phillies right now could be getting a fair return on a player who is coming off a season that, statistically, was the worst of his career. Blanton logged career lows in starts (28) and innings (175.2), posted a 4.82 ERA that tied his career-high, and made just one appearance in the playoffs (a loss in Game 4 of the NLCS in which he allowed three runs in 4 2/3 innings).
Furthermore, the rest of the sport has to assume that the Phillies are determined to trade Blanton, which further limits their bargaining position when it comes to an eventual return (the combination of salary relief and personnel acquisition).
The Phillies know that Blanton was not as bad as his numbers indicate. Much of it had to do with the oblique injury he suffered in spring training. He spent his first month back struggling with his mechanics, rebounding to post a 3.92 ERA in his last 21 appearances (20 starts).
But overall numbers are overall numbers, and a general manager could find it a tough PR-sell if he pays a big price (in dollars/talent) for a guy with a Blanton's 2010 stat line.
2) $8.5 million per season is not an outrageous price for a dependable starter
Here are Blanton's numbers over the previous three seasons: 92 GS, 568.2 IP, 4.51 ERA, 92 ERA+, 6.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9
The following are contracts that have been signed by starting pitchers this offseason in years and guaranteed dollars, followed by their numbers over the previous three seasons:
Jorge De La Rosa 2/21.5 million
75 GS, 436.2 IP, 4.49 ERA, 104 ERA+, 8.9 K/9, 4.1 BB/9
Brett Myers 2/21.0
73 GS, 484.1 IP, 3.94 ERA, 105 ERA+, 7.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9
Jake Westbrook 2/16.5*
*Westbrook started just five games in 2008 and then missed all of 2009 following surgery. His final 2010 numbers (33 GS, 4.22 ERA, 202.2 IP, 5.7 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 92 ERA+) included a strong finish after switching leagues from Cleveland to St. Louis, where he started 12 games and posted a 4-4 record, 3.48 ERA and 113 ERA+.
Hiroki Kuroda 1/12.0
82 GS, 497.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 111 ERA+, 6.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9
Kevin Correia 2/8.0
78 GS, 453.0 IP, 4.91 ERA, 80 ERA+, 6.4 K/9, 3.5 BB/9
Javier Vazquez 1/7.0
91 GS, 585.0 IP, 4.17 ERA, 104 ERA+, 8.6 K/9, 2.6 BB/9
Jon Garland 1/5.0
98 GS, 600.2 IP, 4.12 ERA, 101 ERA+, 5.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9
Aaron Harang 1/4.0
75 GS, 458.1 IP, 4.71 ERA, 90 ERA+, 7.4 K/9, 2.6 BB/9
Vicente Padilla 1/2.0
70 GS, 413.1 IP, 4.49 ERA, 96 ERA+, 6.7 K/9, 3.1 BB/9
As you can see, the market is difficult to read.
If you are Ruben Amaro Jr., you are looking at the deal Jake Westbrook signed and seeing it as a comparable.
Westbrook's career numbers are almost identical to Blanton's:
Westbrook: 193 GS (233 APP), 1,273.0 IP, 4.29 ERA, 101 ERA+, 5.0 K/9, 2.8 BB/9
Blanton: 190 GS (195 APP), 1,202.1 IP, 4.30 ERA, 99 ERA+, 5.8 K/9, 2.5 BB/9
If you are another GM, you are looking at Garland as a comparable.
Garland's contract features $4.5 million in base pay ($3.5 million in 2011 and a $1 million bonus in 2012), but can be worth up to $16.525 million over two years based on innings incentives in 2011 and an option for 2012 that vests if he reaches 190 innings in '11 and doesn't land on the DL in September with a right arm injury.
Long story short, if Garland pitches 190 innings next season, he'll be guaranteed at least $16 million over two years (and will get another $500,000 if he pitches 190 innings in 2012). That is pretty similar to the $17 million Blanton is guaranteed.
To put that in perspective, Garland has pitched at least 190 innings in each of his first nine full seasons in the majors. Blanton, meanwhile, logged at least 190 innings in each of his first five full seasons before finishing 2010 with 175 2/3.
Both contracts - Garland and Westbrook - will pay the same amount ($16.5 million) if the players fulfil their career norms over the next couple seasons. The difference, of course, is the Dodgers are only guaranteed to pay Garland $5 million if he struggles. The Cardinals are guaranteed to pay Westbrook $16.5 million, whether he makes one start or 100.
Regardless, the market price for a guy who logs 190 innings and posts an average-to-slightly-below-average ERA is not a heck of a lot less than $8.5 million.
3) In addition to having a rotation that is better than that of most fantasy teams (seriously, show me the fantasy squad that had Halladay, Hamels, Oswalt and Lee in it last year), the Phillies could have one of the most impressive pools of organizational depth in the NL.
Assuming everybody stays healthy, the Phillies can clearly survive with a fifth starter who is a liability. But that is a big assumption to make, particularly when a team has already invested so much in making it back to the postseason for a fifth straight season.
Let's say one of the Big 4 suffers an injury that sidelines him for an extended period of time. Suddenly, the Phillies would be left with a rotation that features both Kyle Kendrick and Vance Worley. That's not to say either of those players would definitely be liabilities. But Worley has started one big league game in his career, and Kendrick posted a 4.81 ERA and averaged about 5 2/3 innings per start last season.
With Blanton in the fold, the Phillies would be able to fill an injury by plugging in Blanton, who finished last year as the No. 4 starter and was the No. 3 guy the two years they went to the World Series.
4) There is no expiration date on potential deals
Blanton's value could always improve. Let's say Blanton has a bounce-back season, and Kendrick continues the improvement he showed last season, and the Phillies stay healthy through the first few months. Pitching is always in demand midseason, and the Phillies could very well end up getting a better return at that point. The biggest risk is that Blanton does not have a bounce-back year, but he is only 30 years old, and has a track record of dependability. And what if Kendrick doesn't improve, or the Phillies don't stay healthy? Well, at that point they would need a guy like Blanton, and rather than having to scramble to acquire one at the trade deadline, they'd already have him.
Certainly, if the Phillies can swing a deal and land a return that is commesurate with their evaluation of Blanton's track record and his potential over the next couple of years, they are in a position to do so.
But pitching is a valuable commodity, regardless of the amount you already have. And if the Phillies can't get solid value, and are forced to eat a sizeable chunk of Blanton's contract, holding on to him might be their best option.
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Comment removed.
Doesn't point 2 contradict 1? His value is down, but he is not expensive? Oh, and how many of those comparisons were brought in to be a #5?
Joe has been a good guy here, but an arm or 2 have to go to create value for another OF. The only way his value increases here is if one of the top 4 gets hurt, and then we need him.
I guess if given a keyboard and 10 minutes, one could come up w/arguments why Iran should get nuclear arms or poverty is not such a bad thing or we should have never traded McNabb.— Gioff23- A good, thoughtful analysis...thanks!— expatinva
- Does the same analysis pertain to trading Raul????? Prospects could get the team and the trading team a balanced event and good for both.— Koons
- Are we forgetting already what injuries can do? We saw Phils have to scramble for a starter this past season with Blanton slow to heal, Happ hurt, and then Moyer got hurt. Nelson Figueroa was pressed into an emergency start. Ruben HAD to go out and deal for another starter and got Oswalt. Blanton is dependable, and let's not forget with post-season experience -- keep him around.
- You nailed it, Dave-- the Phils will hold on to Blanton until or unless they get value for him. RAJ is smart and knows that he loses leverage if the league believes he's desperate to unload Joe. Same goes for Raul. My prediction, though, is that Ed Wade in Houston takes Blanton for a solid prospect and without the Phils eating any of his salary!!— everydayguy
- With the 4 aces we have... sometimes we forget that Blanton is a decent, dependable guy. For the most part, you know what youre gonna get out of a Blanton start. That type of pitching is needed around the league... i totally agree, lets see what happens and not rush off to deal him for nothing.
Finances come into play and we as fans dont know the ins and outs of those... baseball wise, it makes sense to be patient and see how things unfold. Joe Blanton could be a very reliable starter for teams that are right on that line of making a run. Lets see what comes to us instead of shopping him hardcore.— inkd0874 
Somebody has to go in return for a good RH bat or two. I'd rather it be Blanton and/or Kendrick than any of our minor league pitchers. Rizzotti is doomed to be a DH so maybe getting rid of him wouldn't hurt if we could get a nice bat in return that can help now.- Big Joe is OK---but never forget that the Phillies need a strong right handed hitter--and if one shows up--goodbye Joe— richweb
- I'm not buying. Murph's own stats show Blanton's performance the last three years (our years) has been less than his career performance (career ERA: 4.30; last 3 years, 4.51). That's troubling. He's been hurt. He was godawful by his own admission most of last season (mediocre only at the end). And, it sure doesn't look like he much of a workout ethic, which probably is why his "mechanics" needed work after his oblique injury. If the Phils can save even half his salary, and use some of it for a RH hitter who can serve as a fourth or fifth outfielder, we're better. We need one more RH bat to start the season, not after July 1.— eman
Good analysis.. My opinion is that if there's any market at all for a guy like Kyle Kendrick, the Phils need to move him, even if the return is a package of hot dog buns. He is not a major league pitcher, and the more he pitches the more his value will decline, if he even has any value at this point. Worley is an unproven commodity, but he has really solid stuff, and a good fastball with movement - Kendrick never had any of the attributes that Worley has shown in his limited action. No clue if Worley will turn into anything, but he at least has some pedigree/upside, whereas Kendrick is what he is.— CosmoK- We don't need 7 starting pitchers. Kendrick could possibly be used as the long man in relief.But he normally starts slow. Blanton cannot he is bad in his first inning consistantly. Worley is an unknown at this point with potential but he is young and we need some youth on an aging team.. We need some right handed hitting. If they trade Blanton and or Ibanez they would probably have to eat 1/3 - 1/2 of their salaries. so they may have to stay until the trading deadline when their value could increase. I don't know who has a decent right handed hitting outfielder to get in a trade thats better then what we already have. They still seem to be talking with Chad Durbin so if they resign him they probably should move Kendricks. We also need some more hitting off the bench from both the right and left side if we plantoon and with Dobbs gone and Ben playing right field now. We have zero in double A and triple A To trade except that left handed hitting first basement( Rizuto or something like that) who is now at either reading or was promoted to triple A and he has to knock out Ryan Howard to make the team. A package of Blanton or Kendricks and the left handed first basement to an American League team seems an option if we get something in return in the way of a starting right fielder ( right handed hitter for the #5 slot to replace Werth) and possibly a prospect at the AA or higher level with a shot to make the team. It is nice to have a surplus of starting pitching. We had a tough yer with injuries in 2009 so having strenght as backups is a plus. Tough call for Amaro but I trust him. Go Phillies— naplesbear
- I love all these armchair GM's... "well duh it's EZ jus trade blanton and kendrick and an ibanez for a RF like corey heart or cuddyer their right hand hitters and u wont have to pay those bums, come on ruben jus dooooo it."— jgizow44
- JB is classic case of fat cat syndrome...eating too many pizzas and donuts instead of innings means its time to say sayanora aka Joe Must Go!!!— jmmdk5
All the people who think they need to trade for a outfielder are not thinking straight. They have numerous options in house. First, Ibanez is the LF and Francisco the RF. Second, you platoon players in the outfield Francisco/Gload and/or Ibanez/Mayberry while you wait for Brown to get ready, Third, you play Brown, ready or not, in right. Here is another one, you put Victorino back in right and play the rule 5 kid in centerfield. As far as hitting behind Howard, it would be best to bat a switch hitter there so you could never leave a situational lefty in for the 4 and 5 spots without a bad matchup against the 5 hitter. So, Jimmy or Vic hits 5th, and Raoul hits 6th.
Here is my lineup recommendation to start the season:
Victorino CF
Polanco 3B
Utley 2B
Howard 1B
Rollins SS
Ibanez LF
Ruiz C
Francisco RF
I would be sure to play Gload, Schnieder and Mayberry enough that they can stay sharp.
