The Prediction Post/Happ on roster
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The Prediction Post/Happ on roster
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
UPDATED: Before we get to the predictions, a piece of news to pass along. The Phillies have announced their 25-man roster for the NLCS and there are no changes from the NLDS roster. That means, as expected, lefty long-man J.A. Happ is in and righthander Rudy Seanez is out.
Now, on to the predictions:
A conclusion after looking at the Daily News' predictions and the predictions of all the national baseball experts: Either we are a bunch of homers, or the rest of the country has no idea what they are talking about.
A buddy of mine is convinced it is the first situation. I spent an entire card game last night explaining why the Dodgers had a good shot at winning this series. The Phillies offense is not automatic, and the Dodgers will throw out three pitchers who have the potential to give them trouble. Derek Lowe has started more playoff games than the rest of the Phillies rotation combined. I think the Dodgers-versus-Jamie Moyer match-up grossly favors the Dodgers. I told all this to my buddy. So when he picked up the paper today and saw I picked the Phillies in six, he sent me an email calling me a word that I cannot use on this blog.
But I'll explain. As much hesitation as I have about the match-up with the Dodgers, as much as I think the Phillies line-up could struggle against Lowe, Kuroda, Billingsley and even Kershaw, I keep coming back to one over-riding point: Cole Hamels and Brett Myers will pitch four of the first six games of this series. Since Aug. 17, the Phillies are 12-6 when one of those two pitchers starts a game. In the playoffs, they are 2-0. While Lowe has been one of the best pitchers in the NL over the last month, I don't think either he nor Billingsley has as good of a shot at shutting an opponent down for 7-8 innings.
So that is where I am putting my eggs, in the basket of the No. 1 and the No. 2. If either one falters, even slightly, the Phillies may very well follow. But I'm going to write a sentence I never thought I'd right in spring training: I'm picking the Phillies because of pitching.
Here is a look at how other prognosticators are picking this series:
Daily News
David Murphy: Phillies, 4-2
Paul Hagen: Dodgers, 4-3
Ed Barkowitz: Phillies, 4-3
Marcus Hayes: Phillies, 4-3
Bill Conlin: Phillies, 4-3
Sam Donnellon: Phillies, 4-3
Rich Hofmann: Phillies, 4-2
ESPN
Rob Neyer: Phillies, 4-3
Jayson Stark: Dodgers, 4-3
Tim Kurjian: Dodgers, 4-3
Steve Phillips: Dodgers, 4-3
Jim Caple: Dodgers, 4-1
Fox Sports
Ken Rosenthal: Dodgers, 4-3
Yahoo
Tim Brown: Dodgers, 4-2
Jeff Passan: Dodgers, 4-2
Steve Henson: Dodgers, 4-1
Gordon Edes: Dodgers, 4-3
The Sporting News
Matt Lutvosky: Dodgers, 4-2
Justin McGuire: Phillies, 4-2
Brad Pinkerton: Dodgers, 4-3
Chris Bahr: Phillies, 4-3
CBS Sportsline
Danny Knobler: Dodgers, 4-3
Eric Mack: Dodgers, 4-3
Scott Miller: Dodgers, 4-2
Mark Rosen: Dodgers, 4-2
Phillies 4-2— PhillyCooke- Bet it: 4-2 Phillies, maybe 4-1. We are going to the World Series.— GHOSTPHAYCE
- I see the Phillies winning 3 of 4 games with Hamels/Myers pitching and they will likely score enough runs to steal one with Moyer or Blanton. I think this series shakes out similar to the one with the Brewers actually. Way too many "experts" picking L.A....got to go the other way.— GHOSTPHAYCE
- I am really excited about this series.. One for the fact it's the NLCS and second is the matchup. We are very similiar teams and we are both playing very good baseball right now. I like the Phills taking the first two at home the crowd is going to be huge. Then I see us getting one back in LA so I see us taking this 4-2. I also do love the fact how many people are taking the Dodgers makes it even better.— Jbuzz
- Dave.. I love the work you did with this team all season can you please do me a favor and Take a shot at TJ Simers for LA Times who decided he wanted to bash Philadelphia and there sports teams in there paper today. I am sure you already heard but check it out if you get a chance.— Jbuzz
- I think it comes down to J Roll. If he's waiting for his pitch and has a good series Phils will win. If they have to wait for Utley and Howard to hit a lot of solo HRs then they're toast— ChekUrFax
Comment removed.- I saw let the national media pick the Dodgers. We as philly fans would have it no other way than be the underdog. Hamels wins 2 ,Myers and Moyer win 1 each Phils win back home 4-2.— phillyfaninbeantown
- I can't believe that 25 experts for got the most important fact...we are talking about a team for philadelphia, we are either going to sweep, or get swept. I wouldn't be surprised if we choke and get swept. I would love a world series, but i am not feeling it, the DMurph NFC Championship curse follows him to baseball and we lose the series winning one game if we're lucky...— scuba
- All anyone outside of L.A. knows about the Dodgers is the Manny RamÃrez plays for them. Yes, yes -- Manny's amazing but he's only one man. We can beat these guys.— Jeffrey
- Luckily, this isn't College Football (Go Nittany Lions!!!), and and the media's opinion matters little. I actually think the Brewers were a better team than the Dodgers, so I think we'll do much better than expected. It would be nice to see us take it in 4 or 5, though - I'm running out of Maalox...— Philth
- Phils in 5. I think Hamels and Myers will easily get us through games one and two. I think we split the Moyer/Blanton games, and Hamels finishes LA off in game 5. I think the top 4 in the order have a field day against LA's right handers. Hamles will be MVP for pitching 2 gems.— Gary Varsho
- I think most of those experts pick the Mets to win the division too. The Phillies will run on Martin and I expect Rollins and Victorino to be on base often and Utley and Howard to have good series against all the righthanders. We have to score early to avoid the lefties in the bullpen to become a factor. Phillies in 7.— EL Zorro
- Pitching is pretty much a wash. The Phils will not pitch to Manny. LA will not pitch to Howard. Rollins & Victorino MUST hit 1-2 to get on base and create havoc. If that happens, Phils in 6. If not, Dodgers in 5. Also, I think Werth needs to be on a short leash. He's been getting UGLY swings against RHPs. Jenkins is low ball hitter and Lowe throws sinkers. What will Charlie do? How ironic that Bowa is coaching with the Dodgers and Lopes with the Phillies?— bailey1
- TV wants LA against Boston; Manny against the Sox. TV gets what they want. Dodgers in 5. The Phillies line up is way too inconsistent and we can't really expect the starters to pitch way over their heads like they have been doing. The Phillies won the first two games against the Brewers with smoke and mirrors - misplayed ball that Utley hit; Vistorino slam against CC. It can't keep happening for us.— Bama
