The Breakdown: Three Days and a Cloud of Rest
News blogs, sports blogs, entertainment blogs, and more from Philly.com, The Philadelphia Inquirer and the Philadelphia Daily News.
The Breakdown: Three Days and a Cloud of Rest
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
As first reported by MLB.com early Sunday morning, the Yankees have defeated the Angels for the right to face the Phillies in the World Series. There is no cheering in the press box, but there was plenty of it in my living room, where mental preparations were being made for a cross-country flight to southern California early Tuesday morning. The sentiment, I'm sure, is shared by the majority of the Phillies organization. An Amtrak charter is a hell of a lot more convenient than a plane.
But while the Yankees victory over the Angels was a victory in terms of travel logistics, it also sets the stage for one of the most intriguing World Series in quite some time. You want hype? How about two of the top five television markets in the country squaring off? You want stars? How about four of the last eight regular season MVP winners on the field? You want a pitching duel? How about a pair of Game 1 starters whose ERAs are barely over the legal limit (OK, that's an exageration)?
I've used the word several times over the last couple days to describe a potential Phillies-Yanks World Series: Spectacle.
Of course, in the end, the game is the thing. So we're going to spend the next day or two breaking down this match-up, while also keeping you up to date as the Phillies shape their roster and their rotation.
Speaking of rotations. . .
^
Three Questions: The Yankees Rotation
1. How will Joe Girardi will set up his rotation?
Lefty C.C. Sabathia will face former teammate Cliff Lee in Game 1. And A.J. Burnett will almost certainly pitch in Game 2. But the big question involves when Girardi will give both pitchers their next start.
In the first two rounds of the playoffs, the Yankees were aided by an extra off day, which enabled them to go with a three-man rotation while pitching only Sabathia on three days rest, and only once. In the World Series, however, the extra off day is eliminated. So if the Yankees bring Sabathia back for Game 4 on short rest, they would likely have to do the same with Burnett in Game 5.
Advantage, Phillies?
Not so fast.
Burnett has started four games in his career on three days rest and is 4-0 with a 2.33 ERA, allowing 19 hits and two home runs while striking out 24 and walking 10 in 27 innings.
During the regular season, Sabathia is 3-1 with a 1.01 ERA in four starts on short rest. His most recent postseason start came on three days rest, when he allowed one run on five hits against the Angels in a 10-1 win in Game 4 of the ALCS on Oct. 20.
So there is a strong possibility that the Phillies will face Sabathia or Burnett in four of the first five games of the World Series, with Andy Pettitte starting Game 3 at Citizens Bank Park.
The good news is that they faced all three pitchers during a May series at Yankee Stadium, when they came a Brad Lidge blown save away from a sweep.
2. Why is Sabathia such a force?
Like last year's NLDS against the Brewers, the Phillies' fate will likely lie in their ability to scratch together enough offense against Sabathia to support whoever is facing him on a given day. While it is possible we see three Lee-Sabathia match-ups, the Phillies sound hesitant about sending Lee out on three days rest, something he has never done before. So there is a chance Sabathia could face three different starting pitchers if this series goes seven games.
Here is what the Phillies will be dealing with in Sabathia:
- He has allowed just three earned runs in 22 2/3 inning in three starts this postseason. In his two ALCS starts, he allowed two runs on nine hits and struck out 12 while walking 3 in 16 innings. He has allowed one home run this postseason.
- He has allowed just two home runs in his last 11 starts dating back to the regular season. The Yankees are 3-0 in Sabathia's starts this postseason and have won 14 of his last 15 starts dating back to the regular season.
- He has a proven ability to pitch lights out on three days rest. While Lee has been even more dominant than Sabathia this postseason, the Yankees likely will not have to face him twice in the first four games. And even if they do, there is no telling how Lee will respond.
3. How have the Phillies fared against the Yankees' triumverate of starters?
Games 1/4: C.C Sabathia
at Citizens Bank Park: Sabathia's only career start in Philly came in Game 2 of the NLDS last year, when the Phillies beat him 5-2. The game had two highlights, one of which led to the other: After Pedro Feliz's one-out double tied the game at 1-1, Brett Myers drew a nine-pitch two-out walk, which was followed by a Rollins walk to load the bases. Shane Victorino then hit a 1-2 pitch for a grand slam that seized control of the game. Sabathia lasted just 3 2/3 innings, allowing five runs on six hits. The good news? Myers might be on the postseason roster. The bad news? He almost certainly will not face Sabathia. The worse news? Sabathia was pitching his fourth straight game on three days rest at the time.
Career vs. Phillies: 3 GS, 1-1, 4.35 ERA (10 ER in 20.2 IP, 1 HR)
Last outing vs. Phillies: 5/24/09, at NYY, L 4-3, 8 IP, 9 H, 3 R/ER, 0 BB, 4 SO, 0 HR
The Phillies rallied with two outs in the third, getting a single from Carlos Ruiz, an RBI double from Jimmy Rollins, and an RBI single from Shane Victorino. Their other run came in the sixth, when Raul Ibanez hit a no-out RBI double that drove home Victorino from first. Sabathia was making his fourth straight start on short rest.
Games 2/5: A.J. Burnett
at Citizens Bank Park: 6 GS, 2-3, 5.04 ERA, 5 HR in 30 1/3 IP.
Career vs. Phillies: 17 G, 16 GS, 5-8, 4.75 ERA
Last outing vs. Phillies: 5/22/09, L 7-3, 6 IP, 8 H, 5 R/ER, 2 BB, 7 SO, 3 HR
Burnett has had mixed results against the Phillies. In his last start at Citizens Bank Park, he held them to two runs on four hits in 6.1 innings of 6-3 win while a member of the Blue Jays last May. But at Yankee Stadium this May, the Phillies hit three home runs off of him en route to a 7-3 win. Jimmy Rollins led off with a home run in the first inning, Carlos Ruiz hit a two-run home run in the second, and Jayson Werth hit a two-run home run in the fifth inning. Shane Victorino also tripled off of Burnett.
Game 3: Andy Pettitte
at Citizens Bank Park: 2 GS, 1-0, 0.75 ERA (1 ER in 12 IP)
Career vs. Phillies: 7 GS, 2-2, 3.67 ERA
Last outing vs. Phillies: 5/23/09 at NYY, W 5-4, 7 IP, 5 H, 4 R/ER, 2 HR, 5 SO, 2 BB
John Mayberry's three-run home run in the fifth and Raul Ibanez's solo shot in the second were the extent of the Phillies' offense against Pettitte. The Phillies took a 4-2 lead into the bottom of the ninth, where Brad Lidge allowed three runs for the blown save.
^
We'll have much more throughout the day, including a breakdown of the Yankees' vaunted line-up, and our projection of the Phillies rotation, which, after further review, has changed since we appeared on Comcast Sports Net's playoff preview show last night. I, like Fergie, gotta feeling, that Pedro Martinez is going to pitch Game 2.
Charlie Manuel is scheduled to meet the media at noon, when he is expected to regale the press corps with a story about the time when he was managing rookie ball and the team bus broke down and he used a 38-ounce Louisville Slugger to fix the spark plugs.
Mazal Tov!
Comment removed.
If Rollins had the ability to lead off with a two-run homerun, he truly is amazing! Nice work as always Murph!— Preserve Jon- Have Dave, PROOF READ !! "Lefty C.C. Sabathia will face former teammate Cliff Lee in Game 2. And A.J. Burnett will almost certainly pitch in Game 2." Huh ? You mean C.C. will face Lee in Game 1 dontcha ??— ragaje
- Keep up the good work Murph. BTW, tell the superiors that the new site stinks. It looks nicer but it is much harder to find things.— DennyP
- Comment removed.
- Preserve Jon, Can you read? It never states that Rollins led off with a 2 run homer. My taxes must not be going to public school education.— ALJ
- It is "mazel," not "mazal."— eagyop
- Comment removed.
- In fairness to Preserve Jon, it did originally say that Rollins hit a two-run home run, and he was correct in pointing out that a leadoff two-run home run would be a very impressive feat in baseball.
- not only does it not say rollins led off with a two run shot, i can't find where it says lee will face sabathia in game 2 either. why when we have a great phils writer do people try their hardest to find faults? enjoy murph's articles. i sure do.
- and the dudes cool enough to write comments on his own articles. right on. go phils!
- I miss the 4 for 4 week schedules that used to be on the right. Also, lose the anoying auto video. GO PHILLIES GO !!!!!!!!!!
- Comment removed.
- Murph is a treasure. Keep up the good work. We'll need you through the series to keep us on the straight and narrow!— jhpdoc1
- When facing CC and Pettitte in the Bronx, it has to be Francisco in LF and Ibanez as DH, right? And when facing Burnett, probably Dobbs. I'm not sure about Stairs cracking the lineup. Also, I'm curious what Lee's numbers look like when facing A-Rod. Regardless, it looks like these teams are evenly matched. Should be a cracking series.— cazzoduro
- people that criticize and continue to harp on typos are losers.— Gary Varsho
- heh chaseformvp that was some praise on my part. what can i say? the WFC's have me in a good mood lately!!
- c'mon guys quit spell checkin the article...we all know what Murph meant. the important thing is that the Phils are in the World Series. How bout we talk about the matchups instead of talkin about how Murph spelled mazel...— apiscielli
- The "Mazel Tov" reference is from The Black Eyed Pees song..."I gotta a Feeling". Hence, the mention of "Fergie", who, is the female singer from that band.— skipper22
- Why is it called the World Series?— wtfiwwtp
- To Pedro my son, Dear Son I am sorry I neglected you and was not around to see you grow up to be a National League Baseball Star . I sure could use some of those fat meatballs you used to throw in your days as in boston. You may have been an accident the result of too much rum and a hot evening in the dominican, but I told your boss Charlie to have you come up to the Bronx to give you those spankings you apparently tried to get from Don Zimmer and remind you who your daddy is.— joe343453
- AJ is Yanks weak link so why not put Hamels up against him and this way Pedro gets to face one less leftie in Philly as there will be no DH and Matsui will be out of the lineup. Plus a Pedro-Pettite matchup is good nostalgia. Have to bat Stairs as DH vs Burnett since Dobbs may be needed in an emergency in the field and if you use the DH to play the field then the pitcher must bat going forward— davi
- Comment removed.
- David Murphy, Isn't it your job to proof read before a article is posted, not afterwards?— ALJ
- AJ is Yanks weak link so why not put Hamels up against him and this way Pedro gets to face one less leftie in Philly as there will be no DH and Matsui will be out of the lineup. Plus a Pedro-Pettite matchup is good nostalgia. Have to bat Stairs as DH vs Burnett since Dobbs may be needed in an emergency in the field and if you use the DH to play the field then the pitcher must bat going forward— davi
- check out the new "Phillies Repeat" fan page on Facebook http://www.facebook.com/pages/Phillies-Repeat/159006479711?ref=ts— Eagle GREEN Mt State
- Lets beat the NYers for the '50's Whiz Kids. The should have Robin Robers toss a ceremonial first pitch. Go PHILLIES REPEAT!— wcoastphan
I'm excited and a little bit nervous. But I am SURE that the Phillies can beat that team from Philadelphia's little nephew city, New York, on any given day.— Rotcod
C.C.'s ARM WILL LIKELY FALL OFF..— NRGjunk
