The situational hitting myth
News blogs, sports blogs, entertainment blogs, and more from Philly.com, The Philadelphia Inquirer and the Philadelphia Daily News.
The situational hitting myth
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
You've heard all of the explanations. You've probably invoked a few of them yourself. The injuries. The starting pitching. The situational hitting.
Actually, stop right there. Let's take a look at that situational hitting that has supposedly played a big role in the Phillies' lackluster start to the 2012 season. While there is no denying they have struggled with a runner on third base and less than two out, what if I told you that the Phillies rank in the top half of the National League in most other categories you would define as "situational?
Runners in scoring position? Their .263 batting average ranks fifth.
Man on second base with nobody out? They've advanced the runner 54 percent of the time, seventh in the NL.
Productive outs? They've converted 31 percent of their opportunities (advancing a runner with nobody out, scoring a runner with the second out, or a successful SAC for a pitcher with one out). That ranks seventh in the NL.
Since the Phillies are eighth in the NL at 4.30 runs per game, and they rank better than that in the aforementioned "situational hitting" categories, it is hard to say that situational hitting is the team's fatal flaw. True, they have driven in just 39 percent of their runners on third with less than two out, the worst mark in the National League. And if they instead drove those runners in at a league average rate, they would have scored 11 more runs over the course of the season.
But I'm not ready to concede that the Phillies are struggling to drive in runners from third because they are trying too hard. I'm sure that's part of it. You can't ignore the human element. Batting with a runner on third and less than two out can be like shooting a free throw in that you are expected to score.
Still, Shaquille O'Neal wasn't a bad free throw shooter because he was trying too hard. He was a bad free throw shooter because he was a bad shooter in general. And I'd be willing to bet the bulk of any struggles the Phillies have with situational hitting arise because they aren't a good enough hitting team in general. And those flaws just happen to show up more when there is a runner on third and less than two out.
The problem with the Phillies offense is far less complicated than "situational hitting." They don't reach base often enough, and they don't hit with enough power.
The lineup is composed mostly of slap hitters who lack the gap-to-gap power that creates runs in bunches. They hit ground balls at the second-highest rate in the National League. They hit line drives at the third-lowest rate. Only one NL team hits more of its fly balls to the infield. Only four NL teams hit for extra bases at a lower rate. No team in the National League walks at a lower rate.
None of this should come as a surprise given the personnel the Phillies have used. They are who they are, and who they are is a middling offense that ranks in the middle of the National League. And to win with a middling offense, a team needs excellent pitching. Given the state of the bullpen and the state of Roy Halladay's body, they haven't gotten that pitching. If the Phillies had entered the season with a legitimate power/on base threat in left field, or a legitimate shut-down set-up man, they might be where they were in 2010, hovering on the good side of .500 while positioning themselves for a second-half charge. Instead, they are six games below .500, and facing the very real possibility that are too far back to make that charge.
That's the real situation to focus on.
This comment has been deleted.— Quixote II- just curious:
are you capable of posting a comment without resorting to childish name calling and ad hominem attacks?
I get the feeling you don't even care about baseball; you just like to insult people.
— ekw555 - Good article and right on. The Phils are not playing well because they are are not a very good team, period. It is not because they are 'trying too hard' or are not doing well in some of the subtle nuances of the game like 'situational hitting'. Their record is appropriate for who they are. I used to think Amaro was doing a good job since he took over as GM, but I don't think that way now. He has taken a championship-caliber team and allowed the core to become too old. He has also traded away the cream of the farm system and received less value in return. The Phillies will never win another championship as long as RAJ is GM. He needs to be replaced.— lehphillyfan
- Pierre and Galvis (and his replacements) may be slap hitters, but they have also been among the best players this year. The rest of the team has enough power, just not the home run power they seem to think they have (Rollins and Victorino especially). I'd be interested in seeing how the team ranks in runs scored in the last three innings. This is where getting on base and moving runners over is critical. Also, it only takes a few abysmally poor situational hitters to kill a team.— JayW
- Your stats are great. Now break them down after the 6th inning. I believe they have lost almost every extra inning game they have played this year. Basically, this offense seems to have no sense of urgency of any kind. The problems didn't just happen this year, they have been building for the past couple of years. However, now the pitching has seemed to join in with the offense for a completely miserable watching experience. Thinking that Utley and Howard will fix this is fools gold.— bmcw
- Of the many miscalculations made by Amaro and his staff was to undervalue Galvis. All you read was that he was at least a year or two away and maybe just a utility player. So they signed Rollins to a three (four?) year contract. Galvis showed that he WAS ready. He still needs time to develop his hitting but he is much superior to Rollins defensively and would have saved millions of dollars to be spent on the bullpen and/or Beltran, Willingham, etc.— butchcat
- Let's just take a look at who the man is when Ryan is out: Pence. Is he still batting .200 with RISP for a 3/4 man?— palmyra21
Thank you, Murph. I recall a few years ago when the writers were whining about the Phillies' so-called lack of hitting with runners in scoring position, and Utley said, it's about getting runners on base. The more you get on base, the more you have a chance to score. "Situational hitting" is for people who want to pretend they know what's going on. The real problem with these guys is their highest priced talent is injured.— John621- The home run factor is overrated in my opinion. It's nice to be a big HR hitting team but it's not needed. The Phillies are 7th in HRs in the NL, just 2 HRs behind the NL East leading Nationals. Meanwhile, Colorado is 2nd (yeah, Coors Field) and the Dodgers are almost at the bottom. So you don't necessarily need HRs to be a winner and having them doesn't guarantee much. The Phillies are just a bad overall team right now. They can't put the three main pieces of a game -- pitching, defense, offense -- together on any given day. They've had (I think) 15 errors in the past 11 games which is just awful baseball. Even the good pitching has been more along the lines of mediocre, at least over the last month. Cliff Lee, for example, is really not having any sort of consistently great year and he's our highest paid pitcher. His ERA over the past month looks more like a Joe Blanton ERA. Surely not all his fault (some bad defense that wasn't ruled errors). Blanton, meanwhile, has thrown a few good games into a mix where he regularly gives up 5-7 runs. Hamels has had a few very mediocre outings. Throw Kendrick's batting practice into the mix and some weeks you only have Worley pitching a good game. On top of that, the bullpen has flat out stunk except for Papelbon.
I expected some bad offense. And I expected the bullpen to hit some speed bumps. What I didn't expect was the pitching to be such and overall let-down and the defense to be so putrid. They have the record they deserve.— s - Well put.
— zubzub - Murphy hasn't yet learned that sometimes statistics mean nothing. Most people drown in bodies of water that average 2/1-2 feet. Being 3rd or 4th in a category is meaningless if you're in last place 9 games out with the season more than 1/3rd gone.— 1republican
- Amaro should not shoulder all of the blame for this mess! He obtained the best starting pitching staff in baseball for us to win the pennant over the past two years. He went out and got the best closer over the winter. Unfortunately this franchise lacks good positional players at both the major and minor league levels. Also their minor league pitching talent seems to have been over hyped. Where he lacks ability is picking the right role players. Gillick was a master at that task. Amaro thus far has not shown that capability ala Michael Matinez, Ty Wigginon, etc. etc.— miket47
- Don't care what any stats say, what I am watching on a daily basis is terrible hitting in general. Poor approach by many (Rollins, Victorino, Pence...) and a smug, careless attitude by some (Rollins, Victorino). Not fun to watch and certainly not worth paying to see.— MrPhillie
- Check out the balls and strikes. Umps are killing the phils this year. Chart a game and see how many times umps call a 3rd strike on the other team and on phils. How many times the strike zone seems to change in the middle of the game. Think I am wrong chart the pitches. How many borderline pitches are not called strikes. See how it affects the game.— skolman
- Well with Thome out of the line up now were are the PHILIES going to get their HR and and RBIsfrom? Mayberry isstarting to look like he is turning it around at the plate but isa little shakey at 1st at times. JRoll cost us awin with that dumb error and TY dio not even get me started about him at 3rd base Pierre should be leading off the game and JRollneeds to just shut up and play the game were ever he hits in the line up. Choc should hit 5th and Vic or JRoll should hit behind him. Now once Utley and Howard return you have Pierre leading off Utley hitting 2nd, Hunter 3rd, Howard 4th, Cho 5th, Rjoll 6th Polly 7th and Vic 8th we have good speed leading off nice speed from 6th thur 8th and we should be able to score runs from 6th -8th too. Hopefuly weare not too far out of the playoff by the time Utely and Howard return and if we are then we need to make trades to get younger and find a few relief pitchers that can pitch! and some young minor guys with up swing too.— srcdaddy1216
