The situational hitting myth
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The situational hitting myth
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
You've heard all of the explanations. You've probably invoked a few of them yourself. The injuries. The starting pitching. The situational hitting.
Actually, stop right there. Let's take a look at that situational hitting that has supposedly played a big role in the Phillies' lackluster start to the 2012 season. While there is no denying they have struggled with a runner on third base and less than two out, what if I told you that the Phillies rank in the top half of the National League in most other categories you would define as "situational?
Runners in scoring position? Their .263 batting average ranks fifth.
Man on second base with nobody out? They've advanced the runner 54 percent of the time, seventh in the NL.
Productive outs? They've converted 31 percent of their opportunities (advancing a runner with nobody out, scoring a runner with the second out, or a successful SAC for a pitcher with one out). That ranks seventh in the NL.
Since the Phillies are eighth in the NL at 4.30 runs per game, and they rank better than that in the aforementioned "situational hitting" categories, it is hard to say that situational hitting is the team's fatal flaw. True, they have driven in just 39 percent of their runners on third with less than two out, the worst mark in the National League. And if they instead drove those runners in at a league average rate, they would have scored 11 more runs over the course of the season.
But I'm not ready to concede that the Phillies are struggling to drive in runners from third because they are trying too hard. I'm sure that's part of it. You can't ignore the human element. Batting with a runner on third and less than two out can be like shooting a free throw in that you are expected to score.
Still, Shaquille O'Neal wasn't a bad free throw shooter because he was trying too hard. He was a bad free throw shooter because he was a bad shooter in general. And I'd be willing to bet the bulk of any struggles the Phillies have with situational hitting arise because they aren't a good enough hitting team in general. And those flaws just happen to show up more when there is a runner on third and less than two out.
The problem with the Phillies offense is far less complicated than "situational hitting." They don't reach base often enough, and they don't hit with enough power.
The lineup is composed mostly of slap hitters who lack the gap-to-gap power that creates runs in bunches. They hit ground balls at the second-highest rate in the National League. They hit line drives at the third-lowest rate. Only one NL team hits more of its fly balls to the infield. Only four NL teams hit for extra bases at a lower rate. No team in the National League walks at a lower rate.
None of this should come as a surprise given the personnel the Phillies have used. They are who they are, and who they are is a middling offense that ranks in the middle of the National League. And to win with a middling offense, a team needs excellent pitching. Given the state of the bullpen and the state of Roy Halladay's body, they haven't gotten that pitching. If the Phillies had entered the season with a legitimate power/on base threat in left field, or a legitimate shut-down set-up man, they might be where they were in 2010, hovering on the good side of .500 while positioning themselves for a second-half charge. Instead, they are six games below .500, and facing the very real possibility that are too far back to make that charge.
That's the real situation to focus on.
Great. Slice it any way you want but Amaro overpaid and assembled this crappy bunch and Manuel can't seem to get anything extra out of it. Given the damage Amaro has done already allowing him to make one more move would be gross negligence. He has no concept of talent or how to build a winning team. I could do a better job as a GM than Amaro.— lazyboy- Agreed. Booben is the laughing stock of MLB. He took a championship team and ran it into the ground with a bloated payroll filled with retreads and gutted the farm to assure future years of misery.— DameB
- Hard to watch boys and girls... And on a completely different topic, this awful bunch really exposes those nitwits on TV. Just another reason why this is truly a radio sport...— ratherlistenontheradio
- The Phillies are second in the league in hits behind the Rangers. Their batting average is 4th. Yet they are 27th in the league when it comes to leaving guys in scoring position and in the 23rd in leaving guys in scoring position per game. They are also winless when trailing after the 7th inning... THAT is a situation hitting problem.— dx326
- Well said on this point Murph. Overall, they are just not playing very well. Season is not over in 2 wild card format, but they sure are putting their backs against the wall at this point.— chicagoB
- @dx...nice wording, you are dead bang on.
@Q....way to call a spade a spade. Murph has been dipping in the kool aid fountain at CBP.
It is ALL about situational hitting. And the fact of the matter is if you put all .290 and .300+ hitters in the lineup like the Cards did last fall you score runs and you win games.....you put some dead space in your lineup like Vic, JNoRoll, Martinez, Schneider, Wigginton, and even Mayberry this year and you get what you got. Easy outs with runners in scoring position every time. Give me 8 Pierres and I win with WS, even if I single the other team to death. The 3 run HR is the myth here. You clog the bases with old people and it takes 5 singles to score a run. The Phils don't have the ability to hit 5 singles in half a game, let alone in one inning. Hence, runners stranded at near record amounts. This is the first 3 day period in 10 years that I went 3 days in a row without watching a Phils game on my MLB.com package. I now regret paying for the season. Imagine that.— Mark1npt - Mark - your analysis is terrific. — coloradoeagle
- The pitching isn't just Halladay (and by extension Kendrick) and the bullpen. Cliff Lee and Joe Blanton have also had too many games where they've given up 4 or more earned runs. The defense can also be classified as "horrid" at this point and has certainly caused more than its share of losses.
I also agree that the worse they play, the more unbearable the broadcast team becomes.— s - I agree with the comments about the horrid broadcasting. I feel bad for the younger Philly sports fans who will never know the magic of listening to games called by Harry and Whitey and Gene Hart. Cherish Merril Reese while you can. When he's gone, there will be nothing left.
— TexColorado - Those bashing Murphy are taking out anger about the team on a guy scrambling to give you something to think about during an otherwise intollerable season. Those of you lamenting the awful braodcasting- Turn OFF McLOSER, Wheel(less) and Sarge the stooge and enjoy the best homage to Harry and Whitey we could have hoped for on radio. Franzke and L.A. Stone cold ROCK.— GNIKGNARLY
- The team is beyond bad right now. So many problem areas. Looking to the future, i would not resign Shane to any kind of big deal.....in fact, i'd probably not sign him at all. He is not a star, and he no doubt will want to be paid like one.This Phils team could really use him right now but look what he's hitting, .245. He and Rollins should be leading this team but instead are hurting this team. Does any two teammates hit more infield popups than these two? Seriously.— MrPhillie
- Victorino should definitely not be resigned. In a contract year, when the team really needs him, he's coming up small.
Have they learned nothing from resigning Rollins? Are they destined to repeat the mistake? They're stuck with a declining Rollins now (at bat, on the bases, and even fielding). Victorino's speed and outfield skills will diminish with age also. His hitting skills are already on the decline. Do they really want to be stuck with him for 3 or 4 more years at 8 figures annually?— SteveS11 
Yada yada. They don't hit Home Runs. Period. Play small ball all you want. There is nothing like a three rum homer. No power at first, second, short, third, left, center. Can't score runs that way. Nobody can.
IMO.— zubzub- EXACTLY...This group does not scare Major League pitchers...and even with men on base, a mistake by an opposing pitcher has not consistently ended up in the seats..Having power throughout the lineup,even from the middle positions, is what made the Phillies elite, even before they went out and got somebody else's star pitchers. — bearsfriend
- categorize situational hitting stats however you want - all fans are seeing the hitters come up short when they could have made a difference.
My 4 year-old's love of baseball and the Phils has me watching every pitch still (sometimes on DVR long after I've seen or read about the travesty about to unfold before my eyes). At least he's learning why it's important to get your glove down (thanks Pence), set your feet before you throw (Martinez, Rollins, others), and know the situation (entire organization).— phils_tnj1
