The problem with a platoon (times two)
The notion of a platoon sounds great on paper, which is why managers are so often confronted with questions about them. And there's a reason why the general reaction of said managers is to recoil in disgust.
The problem with a platoon (times two)
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
By DAVID MURPHY
The notion of a platoon sounds great on paper, which is why managers are so often confronted with questions about them. And there's a reason why the general reaction of said managers is to recoil in disgust, to deny the existence or contemplation of anything resembling the platoon in question. Because managers know that games aren't played on paper, or in a vacuum, and when you start to consider the logistics of platoons in actual game situations, particularly National League game situations, you realize their drawbacks.
For starters, let's be clear: regardless of what you want to call the staffing situation at a given position, the success or failure of said position is going to decided largely on the personnel's ability to hit right-handed pitching. Last year, 70.2 percent of the Phillies' 6,172 plate appearances came against right-handed pitching. Because, obviously, the vast majority of pitchers are right-handed. So when you talk about a platoon, you are really talking about a rotation where, in a vacuum, one player is expected to garner three-quarters of the playing time. And in a true platoon, that hitter is the left-handed hitter. Which, in the Phillies case, is Domonic Brown in right field and, apparently, Laynce Nix in left field.
The relevant numbers. . .
Laynce Nix, career vs. right-handed pitching
.253 BA, .297 OBP, .447 SLG, .744 OPS, 64 HR, 411 SO, 1,701 PA
Domonic Brown, career vs. right-handed pitching
.243/.324/.412, .736 OPS, 11 HR, 73 SO, 383 PA
So in vacuum-sealed platoon, with every right-handed pitcher opposed by the left-handed piece of the platoon, then nearly three-quarters of the Phillies' at-bats at left and right field would be taken by players who thus far have been just below league average during their careers.
For those wondering, Nate Schierholtz's career numbers against righties are .266/.319/.413, .732 OPS, 21 HRs, 1,098 plate appearances, which is probably why the Phillies decided to non-tender him (doesn't make sense to pay $2.25 million for a third replica of the same left-handed hitter, although he did post an OPS of .800+ against RHP in each of his last two seasons and is a regarded as a better defender than Brown and Nix).
Long story short, the first draw back of the platoonish situation the Phillies are considering is that, in a vacuum, nearly 75 percent of their at-bats would still go to the player with the weaker platoon splits (compared with Darin Ruf and John Mayberry Jr.).
The second drawback, as we noted earlier, is that platoons are not executed in a vacuum. They are executed in game situations, and in a league where the pitcher is part of the batting lineup and in an era where teams carry two and sometimes three lefty specialists in their bullpens, a manager can often find his hands tied in the final few innings of his game.
Consider the following scenario in which the Phillies face Braves righty Tim Hudson on Opening Day.
Given the current personnel situation, with Laynce Nix and Darin Ruf platooning in left field and Domonic Brown and a right-handed bat TBD platooning in right field (John Mayberry at this point, although I still would be mildly surprised if the Phillies don't end up adding somebody else), the Opening Day personnel distribution would look something like this:
Starting Lineup:
- Ben Revere LHB
- Michael Young RHB
- Chase Utley LHB
- Ryan Howard LHB
- Erik Kratz RHB
- Domonic Brown LHB
- Jimmy Rollins SHB
- Laynce Nix LHB
- Pitcher
Bench:
- Darin Ruf RHB
- John Mayberry Jr. RHB
- Kevin Frandsen RHB
- Free Agent TBD, RHB
- Humberto Quintero C/RHB
Now, let's say that Hudson makes it through six innings, then is replaced at the start of the seventh by lefty Eric O'Flaherty with Chase Utley leading off. The score is tied at 3-3. O'Flaherty, who has held lefties to a .203/.265/.271 line in his career, gets to face Utley, who hit .215/.324/.355 vs. lefties in 2012 and .187/.298/.308 against them in 2011. Then O'Flaherty gets to face Ryan Howard (.173/.226/.378 vs. lefties in 2012, .224/.285/.347 vs. lefties in 2011).
Now, let's say the Braves leave O'Flaherty in to face Kratz. And let's say Kratz doubles off of him. The Phillies have the go-ahead run at second base with two out. But the next three batters in the order are Brown (.586 vs. LHP in his career), Rollins (.609 OPS and .612 OPS vs. LHP in 2011 and 2012) and Nix (.506 vs. LHP in his career).
Manuel pinch-hits righty Mayberry or Ruf for Brown. The Braves counter by bringing in righty Jordan Walden. The Phillies have the opportunity to counter with another pinch-hitter. Problem is, they don't have a lefty available on the bench, because both of their left-handed hitting outfielders are in the starting lineup.
This is just an example of the late-game problems that the Phillies could encounter by stacking their starting lineup with lefties. Frankly, if they really are entertaining the idea of straight platoons in left and right field, they might be better off pursuing a left-handed hitting outfielder rather than a right-handed hitting outfielder, since they already have three righties on the bench (four if you count Quintero, the back-up catcher until Carlos Ruiz returns from suspension). Either that, or sign both a lefty and a righty and part ways with Mayberry, although that would leave them without an obvious back-up option in center field. The other option is to sign a left-handed hitting outfielder with the intent of keeping three catchers (and, thus, six bench players) once Ruiz returns, allowing Kratz to be the right-handed power bat on the bench.
Of course, I don't expect the Phillies to operate on a straight platoon basis, particularly in left field. What will likely end up happening is a situation similar to the one we laid out at the start of this post. The media will try its hardest to get Manuel and Amaro to label themselves as fielding two platoons, and Manuel and Amaro will twist their faces in disgust and insist that they hate the word platoon, and Manuel will simply end up riding the hot hand regardless of said hand's dominance.
That, of course, assumes that there is a hot hand. Which brings us back to the reality of where the Phillies find themselves with barely more than a month to go before spring training. It is a reality they played with last year, heading into the season hoping that the combination of Nix, John Mayberry Jr. and Juan Pierre would yield a hand hot enough to compensate for the numerous other questions in the lineup. Now, they have that situation in both left field and right field, which really means that they are counting on at least one of Ruf or Brown to establish himself as a legitimate every day corner outfielder. Both have the potential, but keep in mind that the organization did not even think enough of Ruf to promote him to the majors before September, when a player along the lines of what they will need him to be in 2013 would have dramatically helped their late bid for a 2012 postseason spot. And while I do not believe that Brown has been given enough of an extended opportunity to merit a judgment on his future, he certainly does not merit the benefit of the doubt, at least not on a team with a $170 million payroll and championship aspirations.
In neglecting the corner outfield positions in each of the last two offseasons -- post-2011 was the crucial one, when bats like Josh Willingham, Jason Kubel, David DeJesus and even Carlos Beltran could have been acquired for a fraction of what similar players were costing in this year's free agent market -- the Phillies have decided to enter 2013 with two huge question marks at two hugely important offensive positions. And that leaves them little room for error in places like center field, where Ben Revere has shown promise but has yet to reach a 2012 Juan Pierre level on offense, or third base, where 36-year-old Michael Young is being counted on to rebound from the worst season of his career (while also staying healthy), or second base, where Chase Utley is hopeful to play more than four months for the first time since 2010, or first base, where Ryan Howard is assumed to have finally recovered from the Achilles surgery that cost him half of last season, the domino effect of which was blamed for numbers that dropped even more precipitously than was suggested by the gradual decline he had experienced over the previous few seasons.
The Phillies willingness to assume all of this offensive risk means they are once again highly-leveraged on the pitching side of things, where 36-year-old Roy Halladay is being expected to return to his pre-2012 levels and 28-year-old Kyle Kendrick is being expected to prove that he has finally become a consistent pitcher who can hold his own against lefties and miss a bat or two, at least to the point where, between Kendrick and John Lannan, the Phillies do not find themselves handing the ball to a fringe No. 5 starter two out of every five days.
The question isn't whether the Phillies can contend for a World Series with an offense that features rotations in left field and right field. The question is whether it is prudent to add that question to a roster that already features a slew of them. Because as we have seen the past few seasons, a baseball team is almost guaranteed to get one or two answers wrong over the course of a 162-game schedule.
I think talk of platooning is the Phils' shorthand for saying the job is there for someone to take. I think the job in left is there for Ruf to take if he can show he can field the position even moderately well and if he hits righties as well as he did last year. He's had no problem hitting lefties at the big league level. But a little pressure is taken off Ruf by the suggestion of a platoon. The suggestion is that everything is not resting on his shoulders. I see Nix as less of a platoon option and more of a fall back option.
In right the situation is different. Brown has not realized his potential against righties or lefties and Mayberry has demonstrated, at least to my satisfaction, that he is nothing more than a platoon player and defensive fill in. Brown, like Ruf, has to show that he an every day player. There's a difference in my mind between the Phils being reconciled to platoon situations if key players don't step up and and planning for platoons as a proactive strategy. I don't see evidence that the Phils are proactively pushing for platooning either in left or right.— Claudio Vernight- @CV, disagree.
The Phils, and Manuel, love platoons, and mixing interchangeable parts and lineups. Just look at the numbers for the times Manuel has used a different lineup - yes, often due to injury - but trying to mix/match against pitchers, infields, parks, etc.
Trust me, as of mid-winter, they are in LOVE with this idea and concept. Why? Because they have publicly stated they have no choice, a choice of their making.
I stick by my projection that they'll be looking to fix this by 25 games in about the time Ruiz returns. Further, if one of the guys is hot, yes, they'll stick with that guy, but they'll make no promises long term. Brown, Mayberry, Nix in particular. Brown or Mayberry would have to come up as beasts this spring and prove they can carry it through a year. I say it won't happen.
Jury's out on Revere and Ruf.— 24sDad - Yes, current statistical analysis does not point to significant success for the platoon option the Phillies have. However, there comes a point when teams have to just take a risk with young players and see which ones pan out. While the Phillies have a high payroll, they still can't really compete with Yankees, Red Sox and Angels because they can't afford to make mistakes on huge contracts or have too many players being paid millions when they aren't productive anymore. The team is already seeing some of the negative consequences of doing that. So the team has to give young, unproven players a chance and see what happens. It's part of the growing process that is necessary for sustainable success.— OutofTownPhillyFan
- @ Cloudio - completely agree. The ideal probably is (and should be) that somebody steps up so a platoon is no longer necessary and Mayberry just gets lots of spot duty when guys need a break while Nix focuses on pinch hitting.— OutofTownPhillyFan
- Looking at the hitting lineup and bench:
1. High Cheese lists only 12 hitting spots. Isn't it usually 13?
2. Where is Galvis? Is HC saying Frandsen will back up Rollins at SS and Utley at 2nd? Young can't play everywhere. At 36, we don't want to see him starting at short.
3. Agree with the article that whiffing on Willingham was a key blunder last offseason. He would have cemented left field, offered more than respectable power. Amaro apparently thought Mayberry was ready. Wrong.
— eman - This is the problem with any "free agent outfielder to be determined" like Murphy has penciled in. Someone has to be traded or be sent to the minors. The only guys I'm aware of with options are Ruf, Galvis and Revere. I imagine Murphy is one of those who feels carrying 6 outfielders is more important than having a defensive infielder on the bench. Personally I'd carry both Fransden and Galvis on the bench at all cost and I'd get both guys regular playing time. That means you're resting the old guys. Which means we probably won't see it happen. Ruf ends up being the liklier odd man out if they pick up a FA outfielder in my opinion. That may be one reason they're going with what they have -- to see what Ruf has for a while at least.
Things would be a lot more flexible if they had a minor league outfielder with promise and power close to being ready. You'd put that guy on the 40-man and let him shuttle back and forth between Allentown and CBP as needed. Failing grades for the farm system and outfielders right now.— s - Hey, I re-read that and I guess that "minor league outfielder with promise and power close to being ready" sounds a lot like Ruf, doesn't it? :-)
The problem I have there is he's 26 already. The time to see what he has is now.— s - Or whiffing worse on Cuddyer. He would've meant much more than Willingham in a mix/match methodology.
But we're grousing over spilt milk. Unless we like lapping off the floor, the milk is spoiled. Wipe it up and let's move on.— 24sDad - I agree ,too many Shoulda Coulda Wouldas and What Ifs along with pining away for Lost Prospects 24sDad you are right on. Also in the FYI column we have this tidbit." Jonathan Singleton has been suspended 50 games. Singleton’s statement: “I was informed today that I have tested positive for marijuana,” Singleton said in the statement. “As a result, I am being suspended for the first 50 games of the 2013 season.… It seems that our organizational strength and prospect collection was somewhat "Tainted" to say the least and the culture down there that is now coming to light may explain the willingness to deal some of what many held so dear. It adds light to why some of the minor league scouting gurus were let go. This is a story in the sense that so many have been caught out right and one wonders who else slid under the radar. It at least may explain why some guys were passed over for a shot when it seemed like a no brainer to many on here they should get a call up??
— DUDESKINS - why is everyone so concerned w the outfield spots. How about we concentrate our attention To Halladay and Lee stop being such prima donnas and pitch big in big games— 420Phillie
- The Phils have a unique situation with their outfield. This stems from the fact their projected every day left fielder, Ruf, is a rookie, and their projected every day center fielder, Revere, is relatively inexperienced. So, let's say the Phils trade away Brown. That leaves Mayberry and Nix as the back-up outfielders. Now, let's say Ruf or Revere are out of the lineup for an extended period of time. Mayberry can fill in and play every day, but he can't hit right handed pitching. Nix probably can't play every day and he can't hit left handed pitching. The situation gets even more complcated if Revere is the one out of the lineup. Only Mayberry can play center field. With Mayberry and Brown both in the mix, the Phils are left with two young and athletic outfielders who can play all three outfield positions on an every day basis. Mayberry may not be able to hit right handers as well as lefties and Brown may not be able to hit lefties as well as righties, but Mayberry and Brown could occupy two-thirds of the Phils outfield full time. Viciedo, Morse and Soriano could play every day, but they couldn't play all three outfield positions. So, in a way, the Phils are fortunate to have two young athletes who can platoon in right field and still be available to play every day in left or center if needed. I'm sure Amaro feels, at the very least, Soriano will still be available before the mid-season trade dealine, and if the Mayberry and Brown platoon doesn't pan out, Soriano could be acquired. I'm sure he also feels there will be free agent outfielders available in 2014 that might make more sense for the Phils when the Phils make some room on their payroll and the major league luxury tax cap is increased. A Mayberry and Brown platoon could be very productive and the best of all offensive and defensive worlds for the Phils. I'm sure Amaro believes this. Now only Mayberry and Brown have to start believing it.— onthebucks
- Except that they've also tried Galvis out there, and Young has played OF too. So the premise, while interesting, is generally in line with the fact that most teams, Angels for instance among them and others, that have 4 guys relatively consistently playing 3 OF positions.
I think the difference that everyone is commenting on, as you have, is that Ruf and Revere are young, and Mayberry and Brown haven't shown what they can do day in and day out, and Nix is virtually nothing but a bloated shell of a player. So the idea that any production comes out of this crew, at the level of some of the other clubs, is more the worry than whether or not a platoon works.— 24sDad - It's been a while but Nix has also played some CF. If it got to the point where you're worrying about replacing Revere someone would be called up. Gillies is on the 40-man and he plays CF. — s
- You lost me when you listed Kratz as the No. 5 hitter.— Phillip?
- am I reading this correctly? Rollins batting 7th in the proposed opening day lineup? Manuel got Jimmy's permission to do this, and that is assuming that Manuel even wanted to do it himself?
Hardly on all counts.
As for the platoon, many of us whom have posted the past few days would love to see Ruf get the same shot Mayberry and Brown each got for the entire second half of the season last year...a shot to play every ay so we can see if the kid's got it.— advantasux
