The problem with a platoon (times two)
The notion of a platoon sounds great on paper, which is why managers are so often confronted with questions about them. And there's a reason why the general reaction of said managers is to recoil in disgust.
The problem with a platoon (times two)
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
By DAVID MURPHY
The notion of a platoon sounds great on paper, which is why managers are so often confronted with questions about them. And there's a reason why the general reaction of said managers is to recoil in disgust, to deny the existence or contemplation of anything resembling the platoon in question. Because managers know that games aren't played on paper, or in a vacuum, and when you start to consider the logistics of platoons in actual game situations, particularly National League game situations, you realize their drawbacks.
For starters, let's be clear: regardless of what you want to call the staffing situation at a given position, the success or failure of said position is going to decided largely on the personnel's ability to hit right-handed pitching. Last year, 70.2 percent of the Phillies' 6,172 plate appearances came against right-handed pitching. Because, obviously, the vast majority of pitchers are right-handed. So when you talk about a platoon, you are really talking about a rotation where, in a vacuum, one player is expected to garner three-quarters of the playing time. And in a true platoon, that hitter is the left-handed hitter. Which, in the Phillies case, is Domonic Brown in right field and, apparently, Laynce Nix in left field.
The relevant numbers. . .
Laynce Nix, career vs. right-handed pitching
.253 BA, .297 OBP, .447 SLG, .744 OPS, 64 HR, 411 SO, 1,701 PA
Domonic Brown, career vs. right-handed pitching
.243/.324/.412, .736 OPS, 11 HR, 73 SO, 383 PA
So in vacuum-sealed platoon, with every right-handed pitcher opposed by the left-handed piece of the platoon, then nearly three-quarters of the Phillies' at-bats at left and right field would be taken by players who thus far have been just below league average during their careers.
For those wondering, Nate Schierholtz's career numbers against righties are .266/.319/.413, .732 OPS, 21 HRs, 1,098 plate appearances, which is probably why the Phillies decided to non-tender him (doesn't make sense to pay $2.25 million for a third replica of the same left-handed hitter, although he did post an OPS of .800+ against RHP in each of his last two seasons and is a regarded as a better defender than Brown and Nix).
Long story short, the first draw back of the platoonish situation the Phillies are considering is that, in a vacuum, nearly 75 percent of their at-bats would still go to the player with the weaker platoon splits (compared with Darin Ruf and John Mayberry Jr.).
The second drawback, as we noted earlier, is that platoons are not executed in a vacuum. They are executed in game situations, and in a league where the pitcher is part of the batting lineup and in an era where teams carry two and sometimes three lefty specialists in their bullpens, a manager can often find his hands tied in the final few innings of his game.
Consider the following scenario in which the Phillies face Braves righty Tim Hudson on Opening Day.
Given the current personnel situation, with Laynce Nix and Darin Ruf platooning in left field and Domonic Brown and a right-handed bat TBD platooning in right field (John Mayberry at this point, although I still would be mildly surprised if the Phillies don't end up adding somebody else), the Opening Day personnel distribution would look something like this:
Starting Lineup:
- Ben Revere LHB
- Michael Young RHB
- Chase Utley LHB
- Ryan Howard LHB
- Erik Kratz RHB
- Domonic Brown LHB
- Jimmy Rollins SHB
- Laynce Nix LHB
- Pitcher
Bench:
- Darin Ruf RHB
- John Mayberry Jr. RHB
- Kevin Frandsen RHB
- Free Agent TBD, RHB
- Humberto Quintero C/RHB
Now, let's say that Hudson makes it through six innings, then is replaced at the start of the seventh by lefty Eric O'Flaherty with Chase Utley leading off. The score is tied at 3-3. O'Flaherty, who has held lefties to a .203/.265/.271 line in his career, gets to face Utley, who hit .215/.324/.355 vs. lefties in 2012 and .187/.298/.308 against them in 2011. Then O'Flaherty gets to face Ryan Howard (.173/.226/.378 vs. lefties in 2012, .224/.285/.347 vs. lefties in 2011).
Now, let's say the Braves leave O'Flaherty in to face Kratz. And let's say Kratz doubles off of him. The Phillies have the go-ahead run at second base with two out. But the next three batters in the order are Brown (.586 vs. LHP in his career), Rollins (.609 OPS and .612 OPS vs. LHP in 2011 and 2012) and Nix (.506 vs. LHP in his career).
Manuel pinch-hits righty Mayberry or Ruf for Brown. The Braves counter by bringing in righty Jordan Walden. The Phillies have the opportunity to counter with another pinch-hitter. Problem is, they don't have a lefty available on the bench, because both of their left-handed hitting outfielders are in the starting lineup.
This is just an example of the late-game problems that the Phillies could encounter by stacking their starting lineup with lefties. Frankly, if they really are entertaining the idea of straight platoons in left and right field, they might be better off pursuing a left-handed hitting outfielder rather than a right-handed hitting outfielder, since they already have three righties on the bench (four if you count Quintero, the back-up catcher until Carlos Ruiz returns from suspension). Either that, or sign both a lefty and a righty and part ways with Mayberry, although that would leave them without an obvious back-up option in center field. The other option is to sign a left-handed hitting outfielder with the intent of keeping three catchers (and, thus, six bench players) once Ruiz returns, allowing Kratz to be the right-handed power bat on the bench.
Of course, I don't expect the Phillies to operate on a straight platoon basis, particularly in left field. What will likely end up happening is a situation similar to the one we laid out at the start of this post. The media will try its hardest to get Manuel and Amaro to label themselves as fielding two platoons, and Manuel and Amaro will twist their faces in disgust and insist that they hate the word platoon, and Manuel will simply end up riding the hot hand regardless of said hand's dominance.
That, of course, assumes that there is a hot hand. Which brings us back to the reality of where the Phillies find themselves with barely more than a month to go before spring training. It is a reality they played with last year, heading into the season hoping that the combination of Nix, John Mayberry Jr. and Juan Pierre would yield a hand hot enough to compensate for the numerous other questions in the lineup. Now, they have that situation in both left field and right field, which really means that they are counting on at least one of Ruf or Brown to establish himself as a legitimate every day corner outfielder. Both have the potential, but keep in mind that the organization did not even think enough of Ruf to promote him to the majors before September, when a player along the lines of what they will need him to be in 2013 would have dramatically helped their late bid for a 2012 postseason spot. And while I do not believe that Brown has been given enough of an extended opportunity to merit a judgment on his future, he certainly does not merit the benefit of the doubt, at least not on a team with a $170 million payroll and championship aspirations.
In neglecting the corner outfield positions in each of the last two offseasons -- post-2011 was the crucial one, when bats like Josh Willingham, Jason Kubel, David DeJesus and even Carlos Beltran could have been acquired for a fraction of what similar players were costing in this year's free agent market -- the Phillies have decided to enter 2013 with two huge question marks at two hugely important offensive positions. And that leaves them little room for error in places like center field, where Ben Revere has shown promise but has yet to reach a 2012 Juan Pierre level on offense, or third base, where 36-year-old Michael Young is being counted on to rebound from the worst season of his career (while also staying healthy), or second base, where Chase Utley is hopeful to play more than four months for the first time since 2010, or first base, where Ryan Howard is assumed to have finally recovered from the Achilles surgery that cost him half of last season, the domino effect of which was blamed for numbers that dropped even more precipitously than was suggested by the gradual decline he had experienced over the previous few seasons.
The Phillies willingness to assume all of this offensive risk means they are once again highly-leveraged on the pitching side of things, where 36-year-old Roy Halladay is being expected to return to his pre-2012 levels and 28-year-old Kyle Kendrick is being expected to prove that he has finally become a consistent pitcher who can hold his own against lefties and miss a bat or two, at least to the point where, between Kendrick and John Lannan, the Phillies do not find themselves handing the ball to a fringe No. 5 starter two out of every five days.
The question isn't whether the Phillies can contend for a World Series with an offense that features rotations in left field and right field. The question is whether it is prudent to add that question to a roster that already features a slew of them. Because as we have seen the past few seasons, a baseball team is almost guaranteed to get one or two answers wrong over the course of a 162-game schedule.
- I don't really see Brown being traded at this point. I think they'll go into the year giving him a shot. His trade value has dropped so far from what it was early on. The Phillies probably feel like they can bring that value up a bit if he shows some of his early potential. As a few others have noted, his lack of basic baseball instincts/skills is what concerns me the most -- routes to balls in the outfield, etc. He's also injured a lot (tied partly to not playing smart ball I'd say). But the flip side I see is he's had relatively few ABs for the time he's been up and I don't think he responds well to being yanked around. He can also show some good patience at the plate. All-in-all I'm on the fence with Brown but I say go into 2013 thinking he's going to play. If that fails, plan B starts around the trade deadline and into 2014 when they can free up a lot of salary space. I'd love to see the guy succeed.
So, all that said, you have Brown and Mayberry able to cover CF if needed.
I'm desperate for some games at this point. All this theorizing ... I need to see some guys on the field.— s - For 2013, the Phils will have to accept the fact that RAJ has not maintained the quality he inherited. There is no Votto at 1st, no Longoria at 3rd, no Hamilton or Upton in the OF etc. Right now based on 2012 results, we have at best another 81-81 team and the majority of posters think even less is likely.
That said, it's time for Cholly to start April with the best of the group and stick with them. I don't want to see what happened to Dom in 2010, happen to Ruf in 2013. RAJ buttered the preverbial bed, the Phils have to sleep in it in 2013. It doesn't appear that the big RH bat will be had so let's see what we have. We can't have a HR hitter at every position so Revere's defensive skills, speed and stolen bases should be looked at as a positive. Ruf's best position is 1st but he doesn't appear any worse than Pat the Bat in Left. He broke Howards HR record in the minors so now he needs to be given a shot in the Bigs. If pitchers can find a hole in his swing then maybe he's just a good AAA player. It's Brown's time to shine if the lights can finally click. They started to flicker from time to time and 2013 might just be his breakout year. If not, he'll have a new home in 2014.
Out of the remaining 5 positions, 1st and 2nd are ??? If both remain healthy, we might be surprised. At 3rd, an aging above average player will need to improve on last years performance and playing every day should make that happen. What you see with J-Roll is what you get, a mostly known quantity as is with Ruiz when he returns in the meantime Kratz will be fine.
Last years healthy pitchers were pretty good...we'll see with Doc and Lannan in 2013. The BP will be better this year.
In all, despite all the naysayers, 2013 might be a lot better than we expect as long as the starting 8 aren't jerked around to much and Cholly lets them try to establish the 2013 team as a competitive one. Might be a real shock if Ruf and Brown perform at a higher than anticipated level.— streetrat - all much ado about nothing. if you don't pinch-hit for the platoon player and are placed into the non-favorable matchup you are talking about 1, maybe 2, wrong-handed matchups for the player for the whole game. sounds like you still get the customary "near 70%" favorable matchup over the course of the season. if 2 ABs in the 6th inning keep this team from contending, it's time to shed the 4 platoon players AND the 6 regulars.— cambo
- dom brown is something like 23, 24 years old, right? it takes a while to develop power sepecially one who was a two sport player who didn't concentrate on baseball until his pro career. i think the phils like brown's head and hope he develops the confidence to hit with power. as others have said, if the other players hit, the phils can get by with brown and ruf's on the job training. people keeping asking the phils to get young hungry players- well now you've got them.
and some expensive contract will be out there if the phils need an upgrade. time for ruf and brown to be the man.— high water - s, Good points again. I am another fan who would like to see both Mayberry and Brown succeed. I've carefully studied these guys and they both seem afraid to let it all out. They seem like they're afraid of making mistakes. They would probably be entirely different players on a small market team where their every move didn't make the sports page of the local newspaper on a daily basis. I think Mayberry and Brown are both really good, above average players, both offensively and defensively. But what has happened to them? Do you remember Mayberry's first game in the bigs when he took Andy Pettit yard at the Stadium? And do you recall any of Brown's first laser shots at the Bank? These guys can do everything the Phils need their outfielders to do, but the time from their early highlights to the present seems like an eternity. They can both get the job done, but something is holding them back. Someone needs to tell these guys that the time for playing cautious and holding back is over. It's game on from here on out, and time for John Mayberry Jr and Domonick Brown to start eating at the grown-ups table and not be afraid to ask for seconds.— onthebucks
- I really thought Mayberry would do better last year. He's a smart player and also very good defensively, although his defense disappointed at times last year. I think the worst case for Mayberry is he's a very solid bench player and you probably hang onto him for that reason alone. He has decent PH numbers for example. Brown to me is a guy who needs to play a lot to get into a groove. I agree that both guys -- particularly Brown -- are the types of guys you might see do very well if they're traded away to a team that just plays them every day. Brown has only 433 ABs in three years in the majors. Not nearly enough to judge him completely yet. Blame the Phillies for playing both guys too little and now having the issue forced on them since both guys are out of minor league options. — s
- Why is the article so long? Is this a disertation?— lgeagles
- You should know by now that Murphy bloviates uncontrollably. He would be best served swallowing some Kaopectate.
- phils collection of players offers lots of flexibility with lineup.
1. Revere
2. Utley
3. Rollins
4. Howard
5. Ruiz
6. Ruf
7. Young
8. Brown
9. Pitch
I think the Phils should protect Ruf in the lineup so he sees some pitches. move ruf up in the lineup and put a big bat behind him and force pitchers to pitch to him.— high water - Ew, I can't read another article about outfield platoons. I feel bad for the guy stuck writing it. Phils outfield could be comically bad all the way around and sure hope to be wrong.— PhillySubsMac
- One partial solution is to pick up a player like Justin Ruggiano from the Marlin to supplement (or if neessary replace) Brown in right (he also can play center). Ruf gets a shot full-time in left for two or three months. Mayberry is traded (the Braves would love him, Prado moving to third). Nix? Well Nix needs fairly regular playing time, but somewhere else.— JayW
- s, I totally agree with your very astute analysis. The Phils probably feel, as we do, that neither Mayberry nor Brown has really shown what they can do, mainly because their playing time has been so limited. When Mayberry has played in consecutive games, he has performed much better, but he and Brown played very tentatively last year - too tentatively for every day players. Not every player can handle Philly and the love-hate relationship Phillie fans have with their players. This may be part of the reason Mayberry and Brown play like they're afraid to make mistakes. I think both these guys could play at an All-Star level under the right circumstances. I see Mayberry as another Bernie Williams and Brown as another Jason Heyward. If they could play at these levels, the Phils would have shown patience, wisdom and enlightenment by not trading them. All this being said, I still think there are a few bargains in the trade market the Phils may regret not making in the not so distant future. I really like this Viciedo kid. He's 23, plays both corner outfield and infield positions, hits with great power to all fields, only makes $2.5 million a year and plays for the White Sox who are eager to trade him because of their surplus of right handed bats. If you added him to the mix with Ruf, Revere, Mayberry and Brown, you'd have not only one of the most complete outfields in baseball, but also one of the youngest. Good talk. 2013 should be a good one for the Phils.— onthebucks
- Not that complicated...
Unless Howard is back on track and hitting lefties (similar to Utley), then Rf should play 1st against ledfties...Ruf should be playing as much as possible NOW - no BRAINER. He's a better version of Luzinski, in my opinion, and could help make up for other anticipated weaknesses. Ruf at 1st & LF every day - with a breather every now and then...Gotta learn from keeping Howard down in the minors for too long!!
That said, I don't see this Phils team as being weak as so many seem to think. PITCHING is the key, so in reply to another article here, NO way do we jeopardize the 'pen for OF'ers at this point.
Mayberry may be the odd man out and Nix has never impressed in a Phillies uniform; perhaps more playing time will change that..
I LOVE the move for Rollins OUT of the lead-off spot...Not sure if Charlie has the brains to follow through though...Talk about a NO BRAINER!
Not a big D. Brown phan, but he has improved each year, including less K's - crucial for him if he is to help this team...
Ok, maybe it is complicated...
Go Phils!! We're taking the EAST!
PK— PhillyTheKid - Anyone really think Rollins gives up lead-off? Plu-eze!— mmds
- 1) Rollins SHOULD have been leading off in recent years.
With the possible exception of Pierre, who wasn't really a regular (and was coming off back to back seasons with .657 OPS), can anyone name players of the past few years who would have fit better in the leadoff spot than wherever they actually hit in the lineup?
2) Rollins is just as good a choice to lead off in 2013 as anyone else.
Rollins leading off last year: .325 OBP (.316 overall)
Revere leading off last year: .312 OBP (.333 overall)
Or, if you want to go back more than year:
Rollins over the last 3 years: .325 OBP
Revere over the last 3 years: .319 OBP
It's possible that Revere will be a decidedly better leadoff hitter at some point, but for now, he is likely to be the worst overall hitter in the 2013 lineup.— schmenkman
