The bullpen, and the economic stratification of the Phillies' payroll
As we wrote in today's Daily News, the Phillies long ago reached a point where upgrading their bullpen became a necessity, not only for 2012, but for 2013 and beyond. Early in the offseason, we spent a decent amount of time looking at the potential strategies the club could pursue with regards to bolstering a bullpen that was thin on experience. We knew that they would prioritize a closer, with Ryan Madson the frontrunner. But we also assumed they would pursue some veteran depth for the seventh and eighth innings, given Jose Contreras' elbow surgery and the struggles that young set-up men Antonio Bastardo and Mike Stutes experienced in September. The Philies ultimately decided to make Jonathan Papelbon their lone significant upgrade, signing Chad Qualls to a $1.25 million deal late in the offseason.
The bullpen, and the economic stratification of the Phillies' payroll
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
As we wrote in today's Daily News, the Phillies long ago reached a point where upgrading their bullpen became a necessity, not only for 2012, but for 2013 and beyond. Early in the offseason, we spent a decent amount of time looking at the potential strategies the club could pursue with regards to bolstering a bullpen that was thin on experience. We knew that they would prioritize a closer, with Ryan Madson the frontrunner. But we also assumed they would pursue some veteran depth for the seventh and eighth innings, given Jose Contreras' elbow surgery and the struggles that young set-up men Antonio Bastardo and Mike Stutes experienced in September. The Philies ultimately decided to make Jonathan Papelbon their lone significant upgrade, signing Chad Qualls to a $1.25 million deal late in the offseason.
In today's story, we noted that one of the ironies of the current administration's pursuit of a second World Series ring is that they have strayed away from the formula that won them their first title. In an attempt to quantify just how much their personnel strategy has changed, I crunched some numbers and calculated how much of their Opening Day payroll they spent on the bullpen compared to the rest of the team. I did this for 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 too. The table below breaks down what percentage of the Opening Day payroll was dedicated to the rotation, bullpen, lineup and bench in each of the last five years.
Position-by-Position Spending as % of Total Opening Day Payroll
| Pos. | 2008% | 2009% | 2010% | 2011% | 2012% |
| Rotation | 24.23 | 27.19 | 22.43 | 39.21 | 37.96 |
| Bullpen | 19.66 | 20.77 | 20.21 | 16.23 | 11.68 |
| Lineup | 52.16 | 48.03 | 53.84 | 41.94 | 46.61 |
| Bench | 3.94 | 4.01 | 3.52 | 2.63 | 3.4 |
Note: Numbers calculated using actual salaries, not Avg. Annual Value
As you can see, the amount of payroll space the Phillies spent on their bullpen has dropped in each of the last three seasons, from 20.77 percent of the total payroll in 2009, to 20.21 percent in 2010, to 16.23 percent in 2011, to 11.68 percent in 2012.
But the more significant disparity is in their resource allocation within the bullpen. Of the 11.68 percent they spent this season, 6.38 percent is dedicated to the closer. In other words, 54 percent of the money they spent on the bullpen is tied up in Jonathan Papelbon, which is easily the greatest concentration of funds of the five-year span in question.
Compounding the problem is that the next two highest-paid relievers are Jose Contreras, who opened the season on the disabled list and is back there for the remainder of the schedule, and Kyle Kendrick, who is really a spot starter/long man. Along with Papelbon, those three players account for $17 of the roughly $20 million the Phillies have dedicated to their bullpen.
Essentially, what the table shows jibes with what you have seen. Despite new contracts for Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins, the Phillies are actually spending 5.5 percent less on their lineup than they did in 2008, relative to their total payroll. That payroll space is now being spent on starting pitching.
Keep in mind that the lineup figures include salaries for Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, just like the bullpen includes Contreras. Take away those players, and the Phillies entered the season with roughly 38 percent of their resources tied up in the rotation, 10 percent tied up in the bullpen, and just 25 percent in the lineup, with 23 percent on the disabled list and the rest on the bench. That probably jibes even better with what you have seen.
None of this does much to explain how the Phillies have fared relative to the entire sport. To do that, we'd have to calculate how much each team has spent on its bullpen. But it does give you some sense of the way the organization's priorities have changed over the last four years.
Murph, the numbers would have more meaning and be more interesting if you also provided info on how the total payroll amt., and its year-to-year percentage increase, has literally exploded over the past several seasons. That's what is really concerning, because I'd guess the Phillies' expenditures have drastically exceeded the MLB average in player compensation inflation, as well as having higher total payroll growth than almost any other team . With the numbers you've provided, one could logically say, well they increased their spending on pitching by about 5% and reduced their lineup spending by roughly the same amount, to which most people would think, well, yeah.— ijj- Theres an old saying..."you pay bananas you get monkeys" that is what happened with this bullpen issue. All the money went to a closer who can't get in ballgames cause of the long and short relief. Qualls has been washed up for two years now and Contreras has been done for one. Mix that in with depending on unproven youngsters and you have this recipe for disaster which is now in front of us. We desperatley need a veteran righty and lefty and I know you'll see a HUGE IMPROVEMENT, which in turn will lead to at least 30% more victories. Tie that in with utley, howard and doc returning and that equates.....PLAYOFFS. Mark it down BABY!!!!— Trot
- Yet you still dont propose the move or moves that you would have made to solve this issue. This article is a waste of time. Yes the bullpen has struggled mostly because they do not have a 6th-7th inning swing guy. Stutes, Defratus, Contreras, Herndon(even though he stinks), and Kendrick were all guys that could have been huge parts of the pen but they either got hurt or filled another role. Their farm system's strength was relief arms and you have really caught a bad break with injuries. Have you even checked that Qualls has not allowed a run in his last 9 appearances? How about focusing in on the inability to score runners from 2nd and 3rd with less than 2 outs, Charlies ridiculous in game and lineup maneuvers, Victorino's 4 xtra base hits in the last month, and Pence batting .100 with RISP since May. I think you'll find offensive short comings have a lot more to do with the record than the bullpen.— FABER
- The Phillies had a worse situation last year before the start of season. Lidge was hurt and they were counting on Stutes, Bastardo and Herndon. Contreras became the closer and got hurt. Bastardo and Stutes were pleasant surprises, although both faded in the second half. However, the starters pitched pretty well, deep into the games. Worley was a rookie of the year candidate and KK was pretty good as a long reliever/spot starter. This year everything seems to be the opposite. Halladay and Worley got hurt, as opposed to Blanton and Oswalt in 2011, Stutes hasn't pitch an inning and Contreras got hurt again. Lee doesn't have a win yet. Blanton has been Blanton and Kis having a tough year. As a result the young relievers have been asked to pitch in tough situations. When you have a lot of money invested in the rotation and the starting lineup, you have to get young and cheap somewhere. That's why I think the best way to fix the situation is to trade Lee and sing Hamels. Vic should go also. A quick fix (getting a reliever) might not be enough. This team is not good or discipline enough to make noise in the playoffs, even with Howard, Utley and Halladay back. See last years. Get younger and hungrier.— EL Zorro
- KK, I meant instead of Kis.
— EL Zorro - Amaro's decision to go "all in" on starting pitching, which became evident with the Cliff Lee signing, to my mind also convinced Amaro to sign Papelbon. You can't have $20 million starting pitchers go 7-8 innings and hand the ball to guys life Qualls, Schwimer or even Bastardo for the close.— eman
- Agree with above, with the starters and veteran star line up the place to save payroll is bullpen -- and AAA looked stacked between Aumont (control problems took a step back), DeFratus (had a good shot to make the team, injured...) Schwimmerand Savery (disappointing), injuries to RH pitchers have killed them (Stutes, Contreras).
Had the AAA guys stepped up, or our RH BP not be post-op right now, allowing Qualls to be a sit righty things might look different.
That said love Diekman and Valdes, Pap is a workhorse stud- add a RH Mike Adams type 8th inning reliever and this team makes the playoffs.
Myers, if they eat some salary.— WFChamps - paralysis by overanalysis. go break down medicare, use that degree where we can really stick it to corporate america. and give me a writer who can break down a broken swing, or why Qualls sinker is a stinker.— UnaBlogger
- As usual, EZ is on to something. Best to move Lee and Ms Vicki for relief help and prospects, sign Hamels and add Cloyd to 40man.— NewMick314
- First off, you can't use the argument that the last 3 year percentages are a drop off when the 1st year of that 3 year period is actually equal to the 3 year average when comparing 2008, 2009 and 2010. Secondly, averages do not tell the whole story. For example, if the total salary for 2011 was $135mm that would make the bullpen portion (@ 16.23%) $21mm for that year. If the total salary in 2012 was $180mm, the bullpen portion (@ 11.68%) would be just about the same. Using just one variable in your statistics could distort the value of what was actually spent. That being said, the bullpen still stinks!— RLTC
Those payroll stats are nice.
But heavily influenced by Brad Lidge.— zubzub- The Phils are walking on thin ice with the current payroll and urgent need to spend some money to improve. Resigning Hamels to a long-term, fair-market contract is the organization's top priority. Unfortunately, the only way to accomplish such a feat before Hamels decides to turn free agent and allow a new San Diego ownership to make him their franchise player is to trade Lee right now and free up his $25 million a year salary. Hamels is 5 years younger than Lee and is currently pitching much better. I've always liked Lee but the Phils are currently overpaying him for the mistake of prematurely trading him, and he's just not worth $25 million a year through 2016. A big chunk of that $25 million a year would be better spent on Hamels. Also, the Phils need a few major league ready prospects to add depth to their pitching, third base and catching. Lee should be able to command a boatload of top shelf talent from a number of different teams. After Hamels is resigned and Lee is traded, the Phils need to clean house of all non-essential players. Earlier today, mlbtraderumors.com reported the Phils have not put Hamels or Victorino on the trade block but could make Blanton, Wigginton and a few other players available. Nix, Qualls and a few others could also be added to the list. Top prospects are usuall what the Phils hope to acquire in trades, but such prospects haven't helped the Phils much recently. Personally, I'd rather see the Phils give up a few players to get an experienced veteran or two in return. In the past, Melky Cabrera and Gio Gonzalez could have been acquired in this fashion, and other players who could actually help the Phils right now will probably become available before the trade deadline.
- good quantitative analysis but need to say it clearly for a lot of the readers who can't read bewteen the lines and understand the implicit criticism: Rube just wasted $50 mil. on a closer, $7.6 mil. on useless awful Kendrick and thought he could then get away with bargain basement trash like Qualls, Willis and mediocre minor leaguers to comprise a bullpen... becuase this is sheer folly and obvious to any half-intelligent sportswriter or blogger, ergo Ruben is clearly incompetent— warbiscuit
- Great article Murph. Too bad Charlie "aint smart enough" to get the questions you were asking him last night about JStrolls base running (or lack thereof).— MrLincoln
- as I've said before and blogger Jim Smith suggests names in other murphy article, Broxton, Rodney, Capps, Frasor, Cordero, Dotel, Farnsworth, Hawkins, Saito were all available in the financial range of what Kendrick was signed for...there were dozens of avaiable pitchers in free agency (including Capuano as a 5th starter for example) and good g.m,'s find the undervalued ones while poor g.m.s seem to only find the overrated or awful ones— warbiscuit
