Has Charlie Manuel mishandled J.C. Romero?
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Has Charlie Manuel mishandled J.C. Romero?
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
The conventional wisdom suggests that Charlie Manuel is as much to blame for J.C. Romero's struggles this season as Romero himself. Manuel, the thinking goes, has used Romero far too often against right-handed hitters instead of using him exclusively against lefties. Of the 72 batters Romero has faced, 45 have hit from the right side of the plate.
Romero is still an effective pitcher against lefties: This season, he has allowed just five hits (all singles), in 22 at-bats with eight strikeouts and four walks against them. Against rightities, he has allowed 11 hits (with five doubles) in 36 at-bats with two strikeouts and eight walks.
All of that has begged the question: Why does Manuel insist on using Romero against righties?
But. . .
Maybe Manuel really hasn't insisted on using Romero against righties as much as we think, at least not in situations that have impacted the outcome of a game.
A few things to consider:
1) Of Romero's 45 plate appearances against righties this season, 14 took place in situations where the Phillies were leading or trailing by at least four runs in the seventh, eighth, or ninth inning.
Of the remaining 31 plate appearances:
- Five came in the seventh or eighth inning of a game that the Phillies trailed by three runs.
- Eight came in the seventh or eighth of a game that the Phillies trailed by two runs.
- Three came in the sixth inning of a game that the Phillies led by three runs.
In other words, of Romero's 45 PAs against righties, only 14 came in situations where he was being asked to protect a tight lead or hold a small deficit in the later innings. These are the ones we remember: Lance Berkman's walk-off RBI single in the ninth inning of a 1-1 game in St. Louis. Adrian Beltre's double in the eighth inning of a game the Phillies trailed 1-0, etc.
2) Leverage Index is a metric that attempts to quantify the importance of a given situation in a game. A plate appearance with runners on base in a tie game in the ninth has a high Leverage Index. A plate appearance with nobody on in a five-run game has a low Leverage Index.
Baseball-Reference.com defines a "High Leverage" situation as one with a Leverage Index of 1.5 or greater. Medium leverage is 0.70-1.49. Low leverage is anything below 0.70.
Romero has faced a batter in a "High Leverage" situation 13 times this season. He has faced a pure right-handed batter in only three of those plate appearances. In three others, he has faced a switch-hitter: Berkman, who has a .779 career OPS as a right-handed batter compared to a 1.013 OPS as a left-handed batter, and Chipper Jones, who faced Romero twice (Jones has a career OPS of over .900 from both sides of the plate, although his OPS as a righty is slightly lower).
Even when you factor in the switch-hittes, Romero has faced lefties in seven of his 13 High Leverage plate appearances. In those seven plate appearances against lefties, he has recorded an out three times. In the other four, he has allowed three walks and an infield single.
In 12 medium leverage plate appearances, Romero has faced righties six times, lefties five times, and a switch-hitter once.
In the 5 medium leverage PAs against lefties, he has recorded three outs, with the other two batters reaching base on singles. Righties are 3/7 with two doubles and a double play ball.
So in 25 medium-to-high leverage situations, Manuel has used Romero against lefties in 12 plate appearances and against righties/switch-hitters in 13.
Romero has not recorded a strikeout in any of those 25 plate appearances. His highest-leverage strikeout came against Pittsburgh's Xavier Paul with a man on second base in the bottom of the seventh inning of a game the Phillies trailed 4-2 (.52 leverage index).
3) So while Manuel has used Romero against righties 45 times, 32 of those plate appearances came in low leverage situations. Of his 27 plate appearances against lefties, 13 have come in low leverage situations.
4) Of the 26 left-handed relievers with at least 16 appearances this season, only 11 have faced lefties more times than righties. Two of those pitchers are members of bullpens in which there are two other lefty relievers. And four others are paired with another lefty specialist.
Romero's numbers certainly suggest he should be deployed as a LOOGY. But situations that call for a LOOGY have been few and far between this season, with the starters pitching so deep into games and lefty Antonio Bastardo establishing himself as a viable set-up man. Unlike the Phillies, most teams do not have four left-handed hitters in the top seven spots in their line-up. And there are a lot of situations where a manager cannot afford to use a reliever to face one batter, particularly when his other lefty is a set-up man and not a lefty specialist.
The Cardinals' Trever Miller is the only lefty in his bullpen, and he has faced 18 righties compared with 38 lefties. So it can be done. And you can certainly find some situations where Manuel might have been better off using somebody other than Romero to face a righty.
But keep in mind the Phillies enter today with a 3.02 bullpen ERA that ranks fourth in the National League, despite injuries to two of their top arms (Lidge and Contreras). The Phillies have spent the bulk of the season with rookies as the top two options behind Ryan Madson. While the bullpen has logged fewer innings than any other NL team, Manuel also hasn't exactly had an enviable array of options to select from beyond Madson, Bastardo and Stutes.
Last season, Manuel used Romero against lefties in 97 of 181 plate appearances. But he also had Lidge, Contreras, Madson and Chad Durbin and, at times, Bastardo as a second option to face lefties.
Clearly, the ideal situation has Romero facing lefties. But I'm not sure that Manuel has mis-handled him to the extent that we think.
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As usual Cheese you give us the IN depth look at a situation, usually only the baseball minds ponder. We get angles ata subject that we normally would not look at or don't have the smarts to do so. I always look forward to your column to get the insight on the Phils that isn't your normal fluff bull. Keep up the good work and know there are readers out here that wait for your columns— Trot- Insight? That Murph says, "Romero is still an effective pitcher against lefties" is absurd: LEFT-HANDED (as an aside, "lefty" refers to, or at least connotes, a pitcher) HITTERS HAVE AN OBP OF .350 AGAINST ROMERO, WHICH IS A HORRIBLE OBP FOR A SO-CALLED LEFTY SPECIALIST TO HAVE AGAINST LEFT-HANDED HITTERS. — Truth B. Told
- the person who has mishandled JC Romero is Ruben Amaro. The glue factory keeps calling for Romero and Amaro has been stubborn about letting him go. Do us all a favor Amaro...eat the last half of Romero's one year deal and get us someone else who has major league control and ability..— bradco
- What about the fact that Romero and Baez are STILL on this team. i am postitve that two youngters from reading could do the same job or better. It is a shame that money is the reason either one is still on the phils. Also when are they gonna give up on the rule 5 picks of herndon and Martinez again being held hostage by money or rules
— Trot 
I'd like to deploy a LOOGY on Romero's face— MPatt24- Agree with Trot, Murph's coverage and analysis of the Phils is on par with Sheil's coverage of the Eagles. Gives me hope that real sports reporting isn't quite dead in Philly just yet. Excellent work, I follow the Phils very very closely and this article gave me a new perspective. Nice work. Other writers on staff should take notice of what sports writing should look like.— kgall
- Murph, you wasted a lot of time with all the above mumbo-jumbo. The only stat that matters is Romero has stunk since his suspension. Read between the lines!— jman
- Romero hurt Romero - he is not the same pitcher since he gave up the juice, err, supplement. Can't pin this one on Charlie.— CrotchetyOldMan
- Manuel misuses Romero ever time he sends him to the mound in a MLB game.— bird11
- Also - how many righties has Romero faced after walking the LH batter he was originally brought in to get out?— dankil13
Comment removed.- I appreciate the due diligence here Murph but the fact is Romero has NOT been very effective. Regardless of the situation. He has very few innings this season and looks extremely poor. Walks are high, outs are low. We've got better options at AAA.— Grazman
- The only time Manuel mishandles Romero is when he brings him into a game.— tchilltown
- Murph - Good job. My only counter would be, of the low-leverage situations, how many of those did JC exacerbate and either kill our ability to rally or start another team's rally? Example, "...8 came in the seventh or eighth of a game that the Phillies trailed by two runs..." 2 runs is a close game. What if JC put men on base or allowed even 1 run, that could be a significant contributing factor to killing any kind of hope the offense comes back. Likewise, if the team is up say 2 or 3 runs, even giving up a run allows the opposition back in the game. The real issue is Baez and Herndon are using roster spots that could go to others, thereby relegating JC to strictly LOOGY or garbage time. There's just no upside to using JC against righties because low leverage or not, he's just not as good against them.
— DennyP - maybe if Romero gets back on the drugs he was taking he could become an effective pitcher again.— wolfburn
- Unfortunately, Romero has little left but limited guile. He has no velocity whatsoever. When Larry Anderson was throwing with that slow stuff, he had excellent control. This guy is missing command. The Loogy comment by MPATT was hilarious. Bring up DeFratus!— leecee
- alot of wasted effort here murph. stop with the lefty/righty nonsense. he just stinks. he can grab himself well after every pitch. that's it.— manly
- Comment removed.
- Murphy, stop being an apologist for Manuel and Amaro. Manuel is about two degrees above the intelligence of a Rhesus Monkey and Amaro is a knee jerk, reckless GM who would be far better off running a Casino in Vegas. You guys won't criticize the verbally challenged Manuel because you don't want to lose access to the locker room, duh! Is there a such thing as objective reporting any more? Obviously the all mighty dollar rules:-)
The Phils could have been a dynasty if they had an intelligent 21st century manager and a savvy GM with an ounce of baseball integrity and tactical knowledge. Too bad.— daystrum - Lot of ignorance in the comments. Striking out over 11 per 9, inducing almost 80% ground balls against lefties is terrific. He just should never, ever face a right-handed pitcher. You need to put your players in the best position to win and Charlie has not done that with Romero. Like asking Valdez to hit a ball past the infield.— Bobby Yost
- Murph, I like your articles, you are thorough and knowledgeable, unlike certain HOF writers who are too drunk and cynical to connect with today's readers. However, in this case, you can't "paint by numbers". Romero has lost his command, and hasn't had it since his elbow surgery. His mechanics have been way off to compensate for the injury, and his propensity for walking the leadoff guy(guys) when starting an inning, regardless of left vs right, is a game changing momentum killing downer. If want to look at some numbers, look at the Phillies 7th innings, for their starters and especially the relievers, relative to the 8th and 9th. All we need is one guy who is decent to handle the 7th, like Durbin did, and they are "lock down solid". Romero is the worst guy for the 7th, and I don't trust him to be our LOOGY either, because of the walks. Walks starting innings late in the game kill games, and he is the worst offender. I don't blame Charlie one bit, In fact, I think he has stuck with him for too long out of loyalty, or desperation, since there is no one else. Zagurski is not the guy either, its time to cut both of them loose and get ourselves a real LOOGY.— laser5
- the only proper way to handle romero would be to give him a one way bus ticket to lehigh valley. he's completely washed up. either that, or take him back to that GNC and get him back on whatever it was he was taking back in 08— Ryan
- Consider the last time you felt confident about anything Romero had to offer the Phillies and I'd venture you're talkin' 2008 or earlier. The guy sends chill down my spine when I see him sauntering in from the bullpen. As with all relievers there is a limited shelf life with this breed and this cat has run out of lives. He can't throw the ball over the plate, he puts men on base and gets particularly frustrated while doing it. It's clear Charlie and Dubbee are rolling the dice every time they call him in. I'm frankly amazed to still see him on the team- especially in light of what the youngsters are doing these days. I was pleased to see him in a minor league uniform a while back- but it seems the ghost of Romero will haunt us yet another season.— bob warkulwiz
- Bottom line - Romero has not been the same pitcher since he suspended for juicing. End of story.— FatBoy90
- They should not have brought him back after last season. The guy stinks.— eaglesman1
- Why bring the boob in anyway--the guy he's going to replace can just as easy walk the next batter!!! Everybody's right this guy has NOT been the same since well you know when.— george22
- Oh,J.C.! Not Romero!!!— dasher
- Trade JC to the Yank who need a reliever, any reliever. Bring up a Lehigh kid who is any handed. He would do better for the team than JC nowadays. And that is a fact.— Koons
- i hope cholly handles him,.... right to the scrap heap— SyddBarrett
- The Phillies have to have another LH reliever in the minors that is better than JC. He is done.— Phront_Runner
- The problem with Romero, even facing lefties, is that he doesn't throw strikes. What good is it to bring in a lefty specialist if he walks the only hitter than he's in there to face?— SteveS11
- What about where he comes in to face the lefty, and they pinch-hit a righty?— sportsdude99
- After Romero's last outing, he came in with a 7 run lead & after he departed it was a 7 to 5 lead. No lead is safe enough for Romero.
I would only feel safe if he came in to pitch the 9th inning of a 12 to 1 lead. But, how many games do the Phils offense generate a dozen runs.
On a positive note, Bastardo & Stutes have been overly impressive and exceeded everyone's expectations.
The Marlins have lost 11 of their past 13 games - so the Phils MUST beat these WRETCHED teams. The Braves just recently swept the Fish in a 3 game series.
What's up with Tuesdays for the Phillies?? They have won ONLY 1 game the entire year on TUESDAYS. Stop this hex TONIGHT!!!!!!!!— johnpaulcpa - To be fair, Romero entered the game with a five-run lead and runners on first and third. Contreras began the inning and left after allowing a two-run single to Aramis Ramirez.
Now, when the Phillies took that 7-0 lead, I was thinking that that was the ideal spot to use Romero. Start the inning clean with no pressure. Unfortunately, Manuel brought him into a pressurized spot and, to no one's surprise, he failed.— PhightinPhil - Enough of walking batters— shawnmac
- Interesting Murph but in reality Dubee makes the pitching decisions.— NewMick314
- All that analysis could've been summed up with one line: If ya can't throw strikes ya can't pitch. How can someone be counted on as a 'situational lefty' in high-leverage situations if he can't throw the ball over the plate?? And I don't even want to get into how much I hate the term 'situational lefty.' Puhleeaasee. If you want to pitch at the highest level and get paid millions of dollars, do yourself a favor and learn how to get guys out from both sides of the plate. Hell I'm left handed, pay me what you're paying Romero and I'll come out to face a lefty, after 4 or 5 pitches the hitter will be handing the bat to the bat boy as he trots down first and Chollie comes out of the dugout calling for a righty. Where do I sign up??— stikolaboloni
- Murph. Let's make a very LONG story short, shall we?
In his last appearance, Manuel brought Romero in to face the Cubs Blake DeWitt, a left-handed batter, with runners on first and third and the Phillies leading, 7-2. Romero walked DeWitt on four pitches to load the bases. He then allowed an RBI single to Geovanny Soto and a two-run single to Lou Montanez on a one ball, two strike pitch over the heart of the plate.
By your logic, Manuel used Romero properly in this case. But because he failed to record a single out, even against the lefty, Charlie was forced to burn through another reliever, Stutes, who was forced to bail out Romero.
— PhightinPhil - if he can't handle the BP, maybe he can be the team barber!
:)— marcooo - The mere notion that any human being other than J.C. Romero being responsible for J.C. Romero's "struggles" (he's not really struggling; he's just not good anymore now that he's off of PEDs...remember he was WAIVED by Boston before he got to the Phils, then he got on the juice and pitched lights out, then he got busted, made excuses - and whether he meant to or not is irrelevant, the fact is that the PEDs did in fact help him significantly, then got suspended, then not surprisingly post-PED use he's had injury problems, and now not surprisingly - but no less disappointingly - he's simply not good. To say that "conventional wisdom suggests that Charlie Manuel is as much to blame" is so ridiculous. To what "Conventional wisdom" would you be referring? Have you watched Romero pitch? Actually, you might be right - the fact that Manuel would EVER put Romero in the game at all is the problem. Your erroneous statement that, "Romero is still an effective pitcher against lefties" is absurd: LEFT-HANDED ("lefty" refers to, or at least connotes, a pitcher) HITTERS HAVE AN OBP OF .350 AGAINST HIM, WHICH IS A HORRIBLE OBP FOR A SO-CALLED LEFTY SPECIALIST TO HAVE AGAINST LEFT-HANDED HITTERS. Romero's unconditional release from the Phils is LONG overdue.— Truth B. Told
- Last Friday, Romero's problem was he couldn't throw strikes. Not the first time this season either.— PJH
- Good analysis Murph. I think that Romero, from day one, had to be looked at as only a LOOGY. Early on Bastardo hadn't established himself and there was no other lefty reliever so it wasn't as clear. But we knew what Romero was when we signed him again. He really is only suitable for that specialist role. What would be interesting to look at is this: How many of those non-LOOGY situations did Romero end up in because all other options were exhausted?
The reason he's around is they have no other left-handed reliever options other than Zagurski. I thing the Big Z can't be much worse though. Romero is done in my opinion. It's just a matter of when.
— s - Romero sucks because of him, nobody else— Old German
- Just get rid of him, PERIOD!— Clay Bigsby
- Romero he cocky like a rooster but get eaten by chicks. He no good.— Sam Crow
- Romero can't get anyone out lately. He has no control. He walks lefties and gives up hits to righties. Time to go back to the minors.— Pap
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- He was much better when he was on the roids.— lonestar2000
- Righty, lefty, it doesn't matter. Romero can't throw strikes consistently. Is it coincidental, that he hasn't been the same since the banned substance suspension.— RMO
- As usual, in Murphys NEED to find a story, he creates one that doesnt exist and his original premise is flawed. Batters reaching base 9 times out of 22 isnt good. It what world is that acceptable? Secondly, maybe Murph should watch the games a little more closely and perhaps he'd realize that Romeros velocity is nowhere near what it was in 2008 when he routinely clocked in at 93 and 94. At that velocity he could and was effectively wild, but not now. We dont need Murphs mumbo jumbo to let us know if Romero is effective or not. How about watching the games Murph and you might know as much as we do.— Norf77
- The Phillies can't have a pitcher who just pitches to one left-handed hitter and then is relieved immediately. He is a Major League pitcher and has to get all types of hitters out. As mentioned previously, it is because RAJ continues to keep pitchers he is committed by contract that keeps him on the club. It would be crazy to sign him after this year unless Bastardo is severely injured. I would only pitch him in games that they are behind many runs and need innings to eat and don't care if he gives up more. Outside of that, he is useless.— RunningTheBases
- The point wasn't that Romero has been lights out against lefties. As I pointed out, he hasn't recorded a single strikeout - righties or lefties - in his 25 most pivotal plate appearances. The point was that Manuel isn't to blame for Romero's struggles. The overall numbers suggest Manuel has ignored the fact that Romero has been far better against lefties than righties. I've heard and read people say as much. The only point was that when you look closer at the situations in which Romero has been used, Manuel really hasn't used him against righties - or lefties, for that matter - all that much when the game is on the line, or even within reach. Aside from one or two incidents, Manuel has pretty much played with the hand he has been dealt as well as you could hope for.— David_Murphy
- A lot of bull spit. Why not sat Boston was right, Romero stinks. He shouldn't be wearing a uniform unless it's a prison uniform.— phineas
- A lot of bull spit. Why not sat Boston was right, Romero stinks. He shouldn't be wearing a uniform unless it's a prison uniform.— phineas
- A lot of bull spit. Why not sat Boston was right, Romero stinks. He shouldn't be wearing a uniform unless it's a prison uniform.— phineas
- Murph, maybe theres a problem with your writing when every poster doesnt get what your point was. Just sayin...— Norf77
- I really can't blame Cholly. Idiots like him are never responsible for their actions.— Wilhelm Von Humboldt
- did you really write this entire article without mentioning the 7-5 game against chicago, which was clearly manuels most egregious use of romero this year? he had stutes in the bullpen, yet allowed romero to pitch to 2 righties after the initial lefty. because he faced the two righties, the score went from 7-2 to 7-5. Of course you can say he hasnt been badly mismanaged if you ignore the worst mismanagement. Terrible work.— JimEisenreich
- I agree with those that say Romero is NOT a LOOGY, because he's not particularly tough against left handers. The real misuse comes from putting Romero in the game with runners in scoring position. The guy walks far too many hitter to do that. Much like Brad Lidge, Romero needs to start an inning. I'm not sure why that's so hard to figure out at this point.— Moondown
- Baez,Romero,Martinez must go! Amaro gets too much credit as GM with this payroll!— bill poore
- Eisenreich - If you use the back of your bullpen in every five-run game, you aren't going to have much of a bullpen left by the end of the season. Stutes has pitched in nearly half of the Phillies' games since he was called up. A game you lead 7-2 is a good time to give those guys a break. If you can't pitch a guy in a blowout, when can you pitch him? The Phillies have lost two games this season when leading after six innings. Two. Despite having two rookies as their primary set-up guys.— David_Murphy
- It was a save situation, Murphy. Tying run on deck with 1 out is not the time to use your worst possible matchup. Romero pitched to a RHB when the tying run was at the plate. Go ahead and ignore the base-out situation and just focus on the score, though.— JimEisenreich
- Its actually stunning that you would call a 7-3 score with the bases loaded a blowout— JimEisenreich
- RH or LH, Romero usually ends up walking them, or allowing them to get on base somehow, so I don't see how this can be put on Charlie's shoulders....— PhilliefaninAZ
J.C.Romero is simply just not good enough for Prime Time... You need someone to pitch against "The Litrtle Sisters of the Poor"??? JC is your man... Otherwise... LOL...- Romero has had too much uncertainty finding his target for a year and a half now...taking 50 seconds in between pitches doesn't help his cause in my book either...after Zagurski and Perz, the organization is real thin wth lefthanded relievers...Sergio Escalona is looking real good right now for the Astros...ED Wade..every time!— bearsfriend
- Murph, love your math/stat argument... It's rather evident from any POV that Romero just plain stinks! I think this whole "dead weight" issue involving players such as Romero, Baez, Martinez, et al, will need to be addressed in a month or so (trade deadline) when Amaro is forced to do so.— Seegs
- Murph, good work, nice to see someone doing some work and getting into the actual numbers. Won't change the perception of Romero though; Manuel can share in the blame possibly but the fact is, Romero hasn't been the same player the last 2 years.— JBinPA
- out of curiosity, how do you think he did back in 2007 vs. lefties? was he of loogy-quality then?— Bobby Yost
- Very interesting data and analysis, all that stuff about high leverage. I took some of the data and wrote a program to analyze it myself. The output: Romero stinks.
What's worse is he thinks he's great. I'd like to deploy him as a LOOGY, ptooey.— COskier
