Has Charlie Manuel mishandled J.C. Romero?
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Has Charlie Manuel mishandled J.C. Romero?
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
The conventional wisdom suggests that Charlie Manuel is as much to blame for J.C. Romero's struggles this season as Romero himself. Manuel, the thinking goes, has used Romero far too often against right-handed hitters instead of using him exclusively against lefties. Of the 72 batters Romero has faced, 45 have hit from the right side of the plate.
Romero is still an effective pitcher against lefties: This season, he has allowed just five hits (all singles), in 22 at-bats with eight strikeouts and four walks against them. Against rightities, he has allowed 11 hits (with five doubles) in 36 at-bats with two strikeouts and eight walks.
All of that has begged the question: Why does Manuel insist on using Romero against righties?
But. . .
Maybe Manuel really hasn't insisted on using Romero against righties as much as we think, at least not in situations that have impacted the outcome of a game.
A few things to consider:
1) Of Romero's 45 plate appearances against righties this season, 14 took place in situations where the Phillies were leading or trailing by at least four runs in the seventh, eighth, or ninth inning.
Of the remaining 31 plate appearances:
- Five came in the seventh or eighth inning of a game that the Phillies trailed by three runs.
- Eight came in the seventh or eighth of a game that the Phillies trailed by two runs.
- Three came in the sixth inning of a game that the Phillies led by three runs.
In other words, of Romero's 45 PAs against righties, only 14 came in situations where he was being asked to protect a tight lead or hold a small deficit in the later innings. These are the ones we remember: Lance Berkman's walk-off RBI single in the ninth inning of a 1-1 game in St. Louis. Adrian Beltre's double in the eighth inning of a game the Phillies trailed 1-0, etc.
2) Leverage Index is a metric that attempts to quantify the importance of a given situation in a game. A plate appearance with runners on base in a tie game in the ninth has a high Leverage Index. A plate appearance with nobody on in a five-run game has a low Leverage Index.
Baseball-Reference.com defines a "High Leverage" situation as one with a Leverage Index of 1.5 or greater. Medium leverage is 0.70-1.49. Low leverage is anything below 0.70.
Romero has faced a batter in a "High Leverage" situation 13 times this season. He has faced a pure right-handed batter in only three of those plate appearances. In three others, he has faced a switch-hitter: Berkman, who has a .779 career OPS as a right-handed batter compared to a 1.013 OPS as a left-handed batter, and Chipper Jones, who faced Romero twice (Jones has a career OPS of over .900 from both sides of the plate, although his OPS as a righty is slightly lower).
Even when you factor in the switch-hittes, Romero has faced lefties in seven of his 13 High Leverage plate appearances. In those seven plate appearances against lefties, he has recorded an out three times. In the other four, he has allowed three walks and an infield single.
In 12 medium leverage plate appearances, Romero has faced righties six times, lefties five times, and a switch-hitter once.
In the 5 medium leverage PAs against lefties, he has recorded three outs, with the other two batters reaching base on singles. Righties are 3/7 with two doubles and a double play ball.
So in 25 medium-to-high leverage situations, Manuel has used Romero against lefties in 12 plate appearances and against righties/switch-hitters in 13.
Romero has not recorded a strikeout in any of those 25 plate appearances. His highest-leverage strikeout came against Pittsburgh's Xavier Paul with a man on second base in the bottom of the seventh inning of a game the Phillies trailed 4-2 (.52 leverage index).
3) So while Manuel has used Romero against righties 45 times, 32 of those plate appearances came in low leverage situations. Of his 27 plate appearances against lefties, 13 have come in low leverage situations.
4) Of the 26 left-handed relievers with at least 16 appearances this season, only 11 have faced lefties more times than righties. Two of those pitchers are members of bullpens in which there are two other lefty relievers. And four others are paired with another lefty specialist.
Romero's numbers certainly suggest he should be deployed as a LOOGY. But situations that call for a LOOGY have been few and far between this season, with the starters pitching so deep into games and lefty Antonio Bastardo establishing himself as a viable set-up man. Unlike the Phillies, most teams do not have four left-handed hitters in the top seven spots in their line-up. And there are a lot of situations where a manager cannot afford to use a reliever to face one batter, particularly when his other lefty is a set-up man and not a lefty specialist.
The Cardinals' Trever Miller is the only lefty in his bullpen, and he has faced 18 righties compared with 38 lefties. So it can be done. And you can certainly find some situations where Manuel might have been better off using somebody other than Romero to face a righty.
But keep in mind the Phillies enter today with a 3.02 bullpen ERA that ranks fourth in the National League, despite injuries to two of their top arms (Lidge and Contreras). The Phillies have spent the bulk of the season with rookies as the top two options behind Ryan Madson. While the bullpen has logged fewer innings than any other NL team, Manuel also hasn't exactly had an enviable array of options to select from beyond Madson, Bastardo and Stutes.
Last season, Manuel used Romero against lefties in 97 of 181 plate appearances. But he also had Lidge, Contreras, Madson and Chad Durbin and, at times, Bastardo as a second option to face lefties.
Clearly, the ideal situation has Romero facing lefties. But I'm not sure that Manuel has mis-handled him to the extent that we think.
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Romero can't get anyone out lately. He has no control. He walks lefties and gives up hits to righties. Time to go back to the minors.— Pap
Comment removed.- Comment removed.
- He was much better when he was on the roids.— lonestar2000
- Righty, lefty, it doesn't matter. Romero can't throw strikes consistently. Is it coincidental, that he hasn't been the same since the banned substance suspension.— RMO
- As usual, in Murphys NEED to find a story, he creates one that doesnt exist and his original premise is flawed. Batters reaching base 9 times out of 22 isnt good. It what world is that acceptable? Secondly, maybe Murph should watch the games a little more closely and perhaps he'd realize that Romeros velocity is nowhere near what it was in 2008 when he routinely clocked in at 93 and 94. At that velocity he could and was effectively wild, but not now. We dont need Murphs mumbo jumbo to let us know if Romero is effective or not. How about watching the games Murph and you might know as much as we do.— Norf77
- The Phillies can't have a pitcher who just pitches to one left-handed hitter and then is relieved immediately. He is a Major League pitcher and has to get all types of hitters out. As mentioned previously, it is because RAJ continues to keep pitchers he is committed by contract that keeps him on the club. It would be crazy to sign him after this year unless Bastardo is severely injured. I would only pitch him in games that they are behind many runs and need innings to eat and don't care if he gives up more. Outside of that, he is useless.— RunningTheBases
- The point wasn't that Romero has been lights out against lefties. As I pointed out, he hasn't recorded a single strikeout - righties or lefties - in his 25 most pivotal plate appearances. The point was that Manuel isn't to blame for Romero's struggles. The overall numbers suggest Manuel has ignored the fact that Romero has been far better against lefties than righties. I've heard and read people say as much. The only point was that when you look closer at the situations in which Romero has been used, Manuel really hasn't used him against righties - or lefties, for that matter - all that much when the game is on the line, or even within reach. Aside from one or two incidents, Manuel has pretty much played with the hand he has been dealt as well as you could hope for.— David_Murphy
- A lot of bull spit. Why not sat Boston was right, Romero stinks. He shouldn't be wearing a uniform unless it's a prison uniform.— phineas
- A lot of bull spit. Why not sat Boston was right, Romero stinks. He shouldn't be wearing a uniform unless it's a prison uniform.— phineas
- A lot of bull spit. Why not sat Boston was right, Romero stinks. He shouldn't be wearing a uniform unless it's a prison uniform.— phineas
- Murph, maybe theres a problem with your writing when every poster doesnt get what your point was. Just sayin...— Norf77
- I really can't blame Cholly. Idiots like him are never responsible for their actions.— Wilhelm Von Humboldt
- did you really write this entire article without mentioning the 7-5 game against chicago, which was clearly manuels most egregious use of romero this year? he had stutes in the bullpen, yet allowed romero to pitch to 2 righties after the initial lefty. because he faced the two righties, the score went from 7-2 to 7-5. Of course you can say he hasnt been badly mismanaged if you ignore the worst mismanagement. Terrible work.— JimEisenreich
- I agree with those that say Romero is NOT a LOOGY, because he's not particularly tough against left handers. The real misuse comes from putting Romero in the game with runners in scoring position. The guy walks far too many hitter to do that. Much like Brad Lidge, Romero needs to start an inning. I'm not sure why that's so hard to figure out at this point.— Moondown
