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Status updates: Contreras, Utley, Howard, and more

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47 comments

Status updates: Contreras, Utley, Howard, and more

POSTED: Monday, January 30, 2012, 7:30 PM

Just arrived home from the Philadelphia Sports Writer's Association's annual banquet, where the Phillies always send a large contingent. I have to write a story for the newspaper, so I will be light on details and quotes. But here are some of the key things that jumped out at me in conversations with Charlie Manuel, Ruben Amaro Jr. and others. Keep in mind that I have been largely out of the fold for the past month-and-a-half, so a lot of this might be reptetitive. 

-I don't want to say that Manuel tends to have an overly optimistic outlook with regards to injuries, but he seems to operate on the assumption that if the appendage is still attached to the body in any manner (tendon, bone, ductape), then a player could return in the near future. Hey, I'd think the same way if I were a manager and had nearly died on an operating table. But even though Manuel said he doesn't think Howard is going to miss much time, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said, "If he's back by some time in May, I'll be happy." Keep in mind that Howard is a big fella, and that he blew out the Achilles on his back foot. The Phillies played two months without Chase Utley last year and still won a team record and major league season-high 102 games. So expect caution.

-Early prediction: On the third day of spring training, Manuel starts giving out wedgies every time a reporter asks him about the clean-up spot in the line-up. He seemed to get a little - and I mean little - edge in his voice when somebody asked him who will take Howard's spot in the middle of the order. Often times, this is less of an indication of annoyance with the question than it is annoyance at having to think about something that has no obvious answer.

Say what you will about Ryan Howard's contract, the guy has elite power and a knack for driving home runners, and the Phillies don't exactly have an abundance of options to replace him. The first guy who Manuel mentioned was John Mayberry Jr., but he also named Hunter Pence and Chase Utley, even Laynce Nix and Jim Thome, provided Thome is able to play a game or two a week at first, which is still very much in question.

There really is no obvious answer. Pence has a career .236/.271/.350 line in 30 starts at the clean-up spot. Whether you think that means anything is up to you. His numbers are far more prolific at No. 3, No. 5 and No. 6. 

Other line-up notes:

-He likes Polanco hitting second when Polanco is healthy. Polanco has recovered from offseason surgery and is expected to be 100 percent at the start of spring training (First workout: Feb. 18).

-He likes Utley hitting third.

-He sees John Mayberry Jr. as a left fielder. Laynce Nix and Ty Wigginton will likely get playing time at first base, with Thome perhaps factoring into the mix.

-Random line-up projection based on all of this knowledge:

  1. Jimmy Rollins SS
  2. Placido Polanco 3B
  3. Hunter Pence RF
  4. Chase Utley 2B
  5. Shane Victorino CF
  6. John Mayberry Jr. LF
  7. Laynce Nix 1B
  8. Carlos Ruiz C
-Another random line-up projection with Ty Wigginton at first base:
  1. Jimmy Rollins SS
  2. Placido Polanco 3B
  3. Hunter Pence RF
  4. Chase Utley 2B
  5. Shane Victorino CF
  6. John Mayberry Jr. 
  7. Ty Wigginton 1B
  8. Carlos Ruiz C
With Howard out, it just makes sense to get your five best hitters at the top of the order. I would hit Carlos Ruiz seventh so his base-reaching ability plays up more with Wigginton or Nix behind him. But Manuel has always liked Ruiz at No. 8. Against lefties I'd flip Pence and Utley so that Utley is hitting third and Pence is hitting clean-up. 
Other news:
Sounds like Manuel likes the addition of Juan Pierre to the mix. If you look at the roster right now, it's hard to envision a way that Pierre does not make the Opening Day squad. Scott Podsednik will have a chance to compete in spring training, although I asked Amaro about him and Amaro did not sound like he had huge expectations. 
At the moment, here's how the roster looks:
REGULARS (8): With Mayberry in left, we'll put Wigginton in as the starting first baseman. Then we have Polanco, Utley, Rollins, Ruiz, Victorino and Pence.
ROTATION (5): Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, Vance Worley. Manuel labelled Joe Blanton as having to prove that he is healthy, while Amaro said he expects Blanton to be in the Opening Day rotation. But Amaro said Worley's job is his to lose. Hard to see a guy like Kyle Kendrick or Joel Piniero beating him out in spring training.
BULLPEN (6): Jonathan Papelbon, Jose Contreras, Antonio Bastardo, Dontrelle Willis, Michael Stutes, Kyle Kendrick. I'd expect the Phillies to go with seven relievers, at least until Howard returns, if for no other reason than the fact that they really don't have an obvious candidate for a sixth bench spot. A number of players will be in the mix for that seventh bullpen spot. Manuel said he likes Willis as the lefty specialist. 
BENCH (5): Jim Thome, Laynce Nix, Brian Schneider, Michael Martinez, Juan Pierre. Manuel said Martinez enters spring training as the leading contender to fill the utility void, although he said that Freddy Galvis could merit a serious look if Jimmy Rollins were to miss an extended period of time. There really aren't many other obvious options to fill the utility hole, unless one of the minor league free agents really impresses during spring training. Martinez has minor league options. 
-Utley is healthy, according to Amaro and Manuel.


47 comments
Comments  (49)
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 10:52 PM, 01/30/2012
    I'd flip Utley and Pence regardless of lefty-righty, until Utley shows consistent pop. The part that made me barf: Blanton as No. 4 starter. That will be a blood bath. The guy hasn't had an ERA below 4.00 since 2007 and that was an anomaly in his career. No, I'd rather see Worley or even KK No. 4 ahead of Mr. $8 million a Year No Show. I'd fret more but Blanton will be so brutal in March it won't happen.
    eman
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:16 PM, 01/30/2012
    polanco's obp of .335 was second lowest of any regular on Phils (beating only Ibanez, but trailing even Francisco) and his slugging pctge and OPS were by far the lowest of any regular..he led the team in "grounded into double plays" with 15 (even with his time on dl) ... nothing like a no. 2 hitter who just makes a lot of outs but don't let facts get in the way of baseball "theory" and, by the way, at the end of his Detroit career in 2009, Leyland had dropped him from no. 2 in order, and they had little interest in re-signing him
    warbiscuit
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:43 PM, 01/30/2012
    Yo Murph, would love to see a piece on Utley. IMO he's the key and he's not been good for two years. Showing up for Spring hurt last year is still unforgivable for a pro player. Supposed to fix what you can in the offseason, not May. Why does he get such a pass in this town?
    mjf
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:31 AM, 01/31/2012
    There still is Kevin Freidsen (sp)?. He has experience plaing the infield and has a much better bat than Martinez will ever have.
    drhoffman
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 4:28 AM, 01/31/2012
    Poly was healthy for one month last year-april-when Utley was out. His job as #2 is to get JRoll over, or get on base if JRoll isn't there. He's great at it and if healthy should stay there. End of discussion
    jeff gross
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 9:14 AM, 01/31/2012
    Any chance the Phillies trade for David wright? D.Brown & V.Worley for wright works for me.
    Phillyrick
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 9:25 AM, 01/31/2012
    WHY IN H--- WOULD ANYONE CONSIDER A NOW POWERLESS CHASE UTLEY FOR CLEANUP? HE CAN'T EVEN HIT 3RD ANYMORE!
    DONDEN31
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 9:25 AM, 01/31/2012
    WHY IN H--- WOULD ANYONE CONSIDER A NOW POWERLESS CHASE UTLEY FOR CLEANUP? HE CAN'T EVEN HIT 3RD ANYMORE! (HTML deleted)
    DONDEN31
  • Comment removed.
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 9:53 AM, 01/31/2012
    I'd like that Contreras update too.

    I like a healthy 2009 version of Polanco batting second. The question is whether we'll ever see that version of Polanco again. Other than April he was hurt all last year and it affected his offense. In 2010, he had that elbow injury most of the year that also affected him (although he was better than he was last year). At 36 years old, I have to see that he can come in healthy and stay healthy. Polanco and a guy like Utley should also be rested more than once every few weeks. If that actually happens (I have my doubts) we should see the lineup changing depending on who's starting.

    I also question Chase batting cleanup. He's lost a lot of power. Again, maybe we'll see some of that come back but he has to show it.

    I can't see how any lineup could be set at this point given the question marks with the infielders. You pretty much have to see what spring training reveals and go from there. Charlie should be more flexible in that regard. I feel like he'll stick with a lineup regardless of how it's doing most of the time.
    s
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 10:29 AM, 01/31/2012
    Polanco's on base pctge in 2010 for Phils was .339, not much better than his awful .335 in 2011; indeed Phils struggled for runs in 2010 even more than 2011 --Polanco's offense is about equivalent to a utlity infielder like Theriot who signed for $1.25 mil. with SF except that Theriot is much younger and has more speed
    warbiscuit
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:42 AM, 01/31/2012
    I like Victorino batting 2nd over Polly. Polly is a singles hitter with no speed. You put Polly between Rollins and Utley followed by Pence and you are undermining the running game and forget the double steal. He has no speed. I like the fact that Victorino becomes the second leadoff hitter at the top. If Jimmy fails and he gets on, you don't have to hit a triple or HR to score him. Polly was supposed to improve our hitting approach, and it hasn't happened. (Maybe it has something to do with the free swinging approach of the team. Polly has been a .300 hitter everywhere else except Philly, although he hit .316 in 43 games in 2005 before being shipped to Detroit.) I never liked the signing a few years ago.
    EL Zorro
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:46 AM, 01/31/2012
    The realistic fact is that Polanco may be done. I'd like to see the guy healthy and back close to what he was but at 36 that's a pretty tall order. He had some decent 2010 numbers but, like last year, he didn't do much in the post-season that year (a decent series against SF but a pretty horrid NLDS). One of the problems with guys like Polanco and Utley is they can be completely worn down by October and not offer much for a post-season run. Charlie has to rest guys more. He has no excuse now with some of the bench signings.

    By all accounts the Phillies were looking to try and move him and upgrade 3B. I still think a change at 3B is possible by the trade deadline.
    s
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 4:36 PM, 01/31/2012
    i think the second run production warbiscuit refers to has more to do with pence being in teh line up then polanco being out of it.
    AndyReidsMustache
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 7:29 PM, 01/31/2012
    So what is the status on Utley. C'mon maaan!
    SilliBilli


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