State of the Phillies: shortstop
State of the Phillies: shortstop
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
I. 2012 production, Phillies shortstops (NL rank out of 16 teams in parentheses)
AVG: .244 (10)
OBP: .309 (9)
SLG: .413 (6)
OPS: .722 (6)
HR: 23 (3)
RBI: 68 (5)
RS: 102 (1)
BREAKDOWN: Evaluating Rollins is always a complicated task because of the varying perceptions that surround him. He has never reached base as often as an ideal leadoff hitter, and his contact numbers are not what they were during his prime (his 96 strikeouts this season were the most since he 24 years old). And Charlie Manuel expressed dissatisfaction with his hustle on the base paths on a couple of occasions this season, which has been an issue at various points in Rollins' career. That being said, his .250/.316/.427 line in 2012 was actually fairly close to the National League average for the leadoff spot (.257/.319/.382). He also hit 23 home runs and converted 30-of-35 stolen base attempts. And he continues to provide excellent defense. While there is certainly an argument to be made that Rollins is better suited to hit fifth, sixth or seventh now that power has become the most attractive part of his game, there is no question that he is still an above average offensive shortstop (more on that below). And his defense remains strong, although quantifying just how strong is difficult given the uncertainty of current advanced metrics
II. Future salary commitments (luxury tax threshold $178 million in 2013, increases to $189 million in 2014)
2012: 11.0 million, 5.34 percent of luxury tax threshold (Jimmy Rollins, 34 years old)
2013: 11.0 million, 5.34 percent of luxury tax threshold (Jimmy Rollins, 35 years old)
2014: 11.0 million, 5.03 percent of luxury tax threshold (Jimmy Rollins, 36 years old)
2015: 5.0 million, 5.03 percent of luxury tax threshold (Jimmy Rollins, 37 years old)
FLEXIBILITY: Rollins name started popping up in rumors a week or so before the trade deadline, which gave the impression that the Phillies were gauging interest in him. Maybe they would be open to trading the veteran just one year after signing him to a guaranteed $38 million over three years, but Rollins has 10-and-5 rights, which means he to can veto any trade and opt to remain with the Phillies if that is his preference. Whatever the case, it is really hard to see them trading Rollins and making their infield weaker when they already have a void at third base and Chase Utley's knees to worry about at second.
III. 2013 Organizational Depth Chart
- Jimmy Rollins, 34, $9.5 million average annual value through 2015
- Freddy Galvis, 23, pre-Arb (1.000 service time) under club control through at least 2017.
- Roman Quinn, 19, short-season Class A Williamsport
BREAKDOWN: The Phillies love Galvis' glove and would slide him to shortstop if Rollins ever were to miss an extended stretch of time. Quinn, a highly regarded switch-hitting prospect who was drafted in the second round in 2011, showed plenty of promise in his first full season in the minor leagues, hitting .281/.370/.408 at short-season Williamsport with one home run, 30-of-36 steals, and 61 strikeouts in 267 at-bats. But he is several years away from even being in the conversation about the immediate future.
IV. Potential for personnel upgrades
TRADE POTENTIAL: The Phillies simply aren't going to find a shortstop who can match Rollins' production. Only seven players at the position finished 2012 with a higher OPS (min. 200 PA): Troy Tulowitzki (.846), Ian Desmond (.845), Jose Reyes (.780), Josh Rutledge (.775), Jed Lowrie (.769), Hanley Ramirez (.759) and Starlin Castro (.753). The Phillies could theoretically attempt to make a play for Lowrie with the Astros, who always seem willing to listen on players, and put him at 3B. But a deal for a shortstop who would replace either Rollins or Galvis is highly unlikely.
FREE AGENT MARKET: Again, in the unlikely scenario that the Phillies trade Rollins, they won't be going outside the organization to replace him. Assuming the Tigers pick up Jhonny Peralta's $6 million option, the available free agents are a collection of light-hitting veterans: Jason Bartlett (33), Ronny Cedeno (30), Stephen Drew (30), Alex Gonzalez (35), Yuniesky Betancourt (31) and utility men: Cesar Izturis (33), Brian Bixler (30). Only Marco Scutaro is the only real bat available at the position, and he is 37 years old and a question mark as an everyday player.
V. In conclusion: shortstop.
Pretty self-explanatory here. Expect Rollins here for at least the next couple of seasons.
- @'candidly': The facts are that this season, when the team needed a true "leader" and someone to be energized and play small ball by getting on base and manufacturing runs, lil jimmie Popup was a dog with fleas. So though you will get hammered with the tired "hater" handle, your point has merit.
And lastly, I find it amusing that the WWE has a performer whose main schtick is that he has a little imaginary friend named "lil jimmie". "lil jimmie" leads. "lil jimmie" bats leadoff. Those wrastlers are smarter than you think.
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with @candidly on this, wish Rollins was already gone because I believe him to be selfish (@ -s labels it "infexible") and because this team's manager's top priority is to always make sure his veteran guys are happy with him. Guys like Rollins put expectations on Manuel which he is never apt to break.
Of course, that is Manuel's shortcoming, but Rollins and others like him that put the kiss-b*tt-manager in a bind are not good for this team. Team needs always play second fiddle to individual needs.
Jim-ME is the ultimate in worrying first about his individual needs.
To @dcs2008 who will now level the "you dislike him personally charge" against me as he did against @candidly, why must any criticism of any player ever devolve into that? Neither @candidly nor I even know Rollins. Why must our concerns about hsi lack of hustle and his selfishness translate into not liking him? Because we dare to ignore the stats and believe instead that the team would be better off without all the attitude?
Sounds an awful lot like what's going on in this country and what will come to a head on November 6th.— advantasux- Generally and usually right on baseball @advantasux, however, if you, or me for that matter, think that Nov 6 fixes anything in this country we are both delusional. We pay nearly 600 people in Congress to do nothing, and Nov 6 will not seemingly fix that since everyone, like attempting to fix the SS position on the Phils, is focused on two people, neither of which truly matter.
Getting back to baseball, we have Mr. Shortstuff (the shortstop), and Mr. Shortcomings (Manuel), who are the tandem that stirs the drink here. Suggest Mr. Shortstuff get moved to the 5,6 hole, and possibly to 3B, while Mr. Shortcomings become Ryne Sandberg's bench coach. Oh, I forgot, he knows nothing about 'strategery.' (sic). Sick.— 24sDad - @24sDad (would love to know the genesis of that name, by the way), thanks for your supportive words on baseball, and for your intelligent words on the state of the country. I never meant to go as far as to suggest November 6th will "fix" anything in our world; I was commenting instead about how any expression of preference for one candidate over another nowadays often brings with it derision and taunts about the reasons behind that preference.
I don't understand that in the least; by now, I know 50% of America sees it one way and 50% the other and there are so many reasons for folks to line up on this side or that. Same with the Phillies...people speak of their preference for certain players to be gone and cries of racism and other nonsense ensue. I hate defending myself and my choices for reasons that are never my own.
Getting back to your post, I love the pairing of Jimmy and Manuel with the "Mr. Shortstuff and Mr. Shortcomings" labels, could not agree more with you that if Rollins were to be properly slated in the #5 hole, so much about him would be overlooked and it would make so much sense for the team; which means, of course, it will never happen.
And, finally, I loved your sly pairing of "(sic)" and "Sick" at the close. As always, my friend, a very interesting read.— advantasux - These are a good series of articles, especially with the comparative numerical rankings. I agree that Galvis and Frandsen give good depth at three positions, but the Phillies still need to find a starting third baseman who's neither one of them, even if it's a short-term bridge to Asche. Jeff Keppinger would be a good place to start. If the Astros would really be willing to talk about Lowrie, I'd be more than just a little interested.— dasher
- @candidly: You are absolutely correct. He plays for himself. Watch him and it's obvious. JimME is all about JimME.— ghost of callison
- And, @advantasux, you and I are (once again) on the same page.— ghost of callison
- @ghost, any time I am on the same page with you is a good day, my friend. I find myself in full agreement with all of your posts.Not to mention seeing your name and always thinking that you and I share the memory about what it meant to idolize Johnny Callison back in the day. I tell my son he was the original Chase Utley. Johnny C. did, or tried his best to do, everything right.Great talking to you again. Let's hope that Rubens A Moron, Jr. (my contribution to the list of Amaro monikers) doesn't mess this winter up as he did the last one, and the one before that. (HTML deleted) — advantasux
- Thank you, my friend. Good talking to you as well. Yes, Johnny Callison was my boyhood hero and he was indeed the original Chase Utley. I like that new moniker for Amaro. Unfortunately, I have absolutely no faith in his ability to get the right pieces. His rule 5 picks (Herndon in '09 and Martinez in '10), and his smug inability to admit he was wrong by keeping them on the team, coupled with the first Lee trade when we could have won another WS with both Halladay and Lee, resigning Schneider, then going cheap on the bench with Nix and Wigginton, and finally, keeping both Manuel and Dubee will be Amaro's legacy I'm afraid. How could anybody have any faith in a GM who has been completely exposed as lacking any ability to judge talent? I guess somebody should ask Montgomery that question, but he'd probably say he's satisfied with Amaro's performance. I guess as long as fans and their fannies inhabit the ball park, Montgomery will be satisfied. When and if he takes a hit in that considerable wallet of his, the tide may turn.
- @ghost, if I didn't know better, I'd swear I wrote the above post, not you. You hit on all the key points of Amaro's work over the past three years, ESPECIALLY his choice to relinquish Cliff Lee once he acquired Roy Halladay in December 2009, when he and the Phils could have gone into that season so dominant.
And you're right about what must be Montgomery's take on Amaro's work, and how it won't waver as long as the ballpark fills up.
The only place I will part with you is on your premise that Amaro lacks any ability to judge talent. There is no doubt as to the factual basis for that statement but I believe he has something else going on that makes things even worse and that is his narcissistic personality that always seeks pleasure and fulfillment from outside his own home. His pieces in the minors are NEVER good enough to satisfy him and build his legacy with; he'd rather play the game like a gambler does so he can get his full fix of excitement by bringing in other teams' castoffs and seeing how he can make great use out of them.
All of which is fine and well except that
1) he never gives his own kids the same opportunity and,
2) he so infrequently finds anyone of value from outside (back to the poor talent evaluation problems he has).— advantasux - @advanta, my friend, you raise a very good point about Amaro and his narcissistic personality overtaking his better judgment. The only thing I would add is that the decisions to retain Martinez, Herndon, and Schneider when it was apparent that they were baseball's equivalent of scrapple (along with him visiting the bargain basement during the last off-season and selecting Nix and Wigginton for the bench --even though there were significantly better players available at near the same price) definitely do not lead one to have any confidence in Amaro's ability to rebuild the team properly. I agree with you completely regarding his smug, stubborn inability to accept responsibility for his many mistakes. We are definitely on the same page, as usual. Bottom line: If I were Montgomery, I'd be very uneasy about the direction of my team going forward.
- How many of you who are critical of J Roll checked to see how many time a leadoff man is the first batter up in any successive inning ? Google it, and you'll see the average is one more time. Would Jimmy be better off batting nearer the meat of the order ? Probably.
Is there someone who can replace him, and hit as many home runs leading off ? Not on your tintype . So often blind hate over rules common sense. Jimmy has a good year or two left in him. Beyond that, we should be in position to bring a replacement up, or trade for a shortstop.
There is big problems in the outfield. Why not vent your anger on the garbage we have there ? Jimmy can at least hit, and field his position. That's more than I can say for the rest.— phineas - Jimmy should be batting about 6th. Sorry, but .250 BA and .316 OBP doesn't cut it for a leadoff hitter. Hell, I'd rather have Chase hit leadoff.— Only in Philly...
- It's been interesting to read the well thought out and creative ideas the writers and commenters are coming up with to fix this team. Unfortunately, I fear narcissist Rube is focused on what move will get him the most attention this off season. He is the Kim Kardashian of GMs, "Big Splashes" and "Block Busters" will get more of the spot light on his smug face and that seems to have become his priority.— fhs77
- @fhs77, perfectly said. That has been my concern and main gripe with our smug GM for the four years I've been posting here, and he never disappoints (as in, he consistently manages to live DOWN to my expectations).
How else to explain the incessant conga line of castoff refugees from other teams but almost never fully developing a kid from the farm into an everyday player?
He seems to desire to build his legacy by acquiring talent (yeah, right) from outside. He believes that will earn him his stripes with his peers.
Rubens A Moron, Jr - our own Kimmy K.— advantasux
