State of the Phillies: Third base
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State of the Phillies: Third base
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Yesterday, we kicked off our week-long State of the Phillies series by breaking down the past, present and future of the first base and second base positions. Our mission over these next few days is to identify where, exactly, the Phillies can improve this roster. The lesson from yesterday was that any improvement won't come at first or second base. Or, for that matter, anywhere in the infield, a point that Ryan Lawrence expands upon in today's paper.
The Phillies do have a vacancy at third base, but they don't have much in the way of options for filling that vacancy. The free agent market is thin, as is the trade market (forget David Wright). In other words, it is business as usual for the organization.
The last time Phillies third basemen finished a season with better than a .697 OPS was 2004, when David Bell hit .289/.362/.455 to lead the position. The only similarity between the position then and the position now is that Placido Polanco played it. Of course, Polanco had as many home runs in 50 plate appearances that season as he had in 315 plate appearances this season: two.
2012: .672
2011: .665
2010: .697
2009: .686
2008: .695
2007: .688
2006: .684
2005: .692
2004: .828
I. 2012 production, Phillies third basemen (NL rank out of 16 teams in parentheses)
AVG: .272 (9)
OBP: .315 (11)
SLG: .357 (15)
OPS: .672 (15)
HR: 5 (16)
RBI: 42 (16)
RS: 50 (13)
BREAKDOWN: The above numbers pretty much tell the story. Placido Polanco was once again beset by injuries and is clearly winding down his career. In 78 games, he posted a .259/.301/.331 batting line. Ty Wigginton hit just .184 when playing the position and was not much better on defense. The one bright spot was Kevin Frandsen, who made the most of his opportunity, hitting .335/.377/.450 in 205 plate appearances at third base.
II. Future salary commitments (luxury tax threshold $178 million in 2013, increases to $189 million in 2014)
2012: $7.25 million, 3.37 percent of luxury tax threshold (Placido Polanco, 36 years old)
2013: None
FLEXIBILITY: The Phillies have plenty of flexibility to add personnel at the position. The $7.25 million salary listed above for Polanco include a $1 million buyout on a mutual option that is a formality at this point.
III. 2013 Organizational Depth Chart
- Freddy Galvis, 23, pre-Arb (1.000 service time) under club control through at least 2017.
- Kevin Frandsen, 31, arbitration eligible (est. 4.000 ST) under club control through at least 2014
- Cody Asche, 23, AA
BREAKDOWN: There are no easy answers at this position. Barring an unforeseen trade, Galvis figures to enter the season as the top defensive option at the position. The Phillies have yet to give an indication that they view Frandsen as an everyday player at the hot corner, talking about his prospects for 2013 more in the terms of a utility man or platoon player. The problem with a platoon is that Frandsen is a right-handed hitter who mashed lefties this year, and slick-fielding rookie Galvis was much better as a right-handed hitter. Galvis has never played third base, but he has shown he can play shortstop and second base and the Phillies are confident he would do the same at third. The big question is whether he can hit well enough to justify an everyday spot in a contending major league lineup. In 58 games before a back injury and PED suspension, Galvis hit just .226/.254/.363 with three home runs, 24 RBI and 14 runs. A repeat of those numbers would mean the Phillies actually got worse offensively at the position. Asche is the one hope for the future. He hit .324/.369/.481 with 12 home runs in 559 plate appearances at high-A Clearwater and Double-A Reading, but he will have to prove that he can field the position without being a glaring liability before he gets a shot in the majors. We should see him in big league spring training, but there is no way the Phillies can base their Opening Day plans for the position around Asche.
IV. Potential for personnel upgrades
TRADE POTENTIAL: There have been rumblings all season that the Padres are open to parting with veteran third baseman Chase Headley, whose plate approach and power potential would provide a perfect fit for this lineup. But the Padres also have a news ownership team that has locked up Carlos Quentin and Huston Street, and their strong finish to the season has tempered expectations that Headley will be traded. Houston's Jed Lowrie, who has 52 career starts at third base, is another player who you could at least envision being traded, given the Astros frequent activity in the trade market. That being said, the Astros probably wouldn't have much financial motivation to trade Lowrie, who made just $1.15 million 2012 as a first-time arbitration-eligible player. That means any team hoping to acquire him would likely have to overpay for a player who has never cracked 400 plate appearances in a season and whose career batting line is .250/.326/.417. Lowrie did hit 16 home runs in 387 plate appearances this season. There are no indications that the Mets are willing to trade David Wright. The Brewers made a late run at the postseason thanks in part to a .901 OPS and 27 home runs out of Aramis Ramirez, so it does not seem logical that they would trade the veteran. Plus, the Phillies could've signed Ramirez themselves last offseason if they viewed him as a solution at third base, although their philosophy was likely affected by the presence of Polanco.
FREE AGENT MARKET: Jeff Keppinger played third base for a playoff contender in Tampa Bay this season, posting an .806 OPS and .367 on base percentage. That being said, he had a .698 OPS in the four seasons prior. Kevin Youkilis, who had a solid run with the White Sox after Boston traded him away, could become a free agent if Chicago declines his $13 million extension. Eric Chavez had a solid season for the Yankees, but there is reason to doubt that he would hold up physically as an everyday third baseman. Same goes for Youkilis.
V. Third base, in conclusion
We'd have Galvis as our early favorite to enter the season as the regular third baseman, with Frandsen getting 300 to 400 at-bats, depending on whether he plays his way into more time. It would not be surprising to see the Phillies get creative at the position, but I have spent most of the season trying to figure out a creative way that they might fill the void and have failed to come up with a potential trade scenario. The likely scenario is rolling with Galvis and a low-cost veteran (perhaps Frandsen) and hoping they get lucky like the Rays did with Keppinger. With the rest of the holes that need to be filled, particularly in center field and perhaps one of the corner outfield spots. The Phillies can't afford to significantly overpay for the production they will receive, particularly if there are health concerns with the signee.
It's funny how some posters blast Freddy's bat, but he did have 24 RBIs in about the same number of ABs as it took Frandsen to produce 14 RBIs. I say we keep them both, but Freddy's glove gets the nod and Frandsen is our utility IF.— Phront_Runner- Youkilis on a one year deal is the answer. Galvis is NOT a 3b. Youk at 3rd and batting 3rd would give a high OBP guy in front of Howard , Chooch and Dom Brown. We should get at least enough out of Youk before he gets hurt to see if Asche could be the guy in 2014...— cdedrick05
- Youkilis on a one year deal is the answer. Galvis is NOT a 3b. Youk at 3rd and batting 3rd would give a high OBP guy in front of Howard , Chooch and Dom Brown. We should get at least enough out of Youk before he gets hurt to see if Asche could be the guy in 2014...— cdedrick05
- Hear that sizzling sound? That's Youklis ... or maybe Polanco. It's hard to distinguish between the two. — s
- @s....I hear you. The significant difference is that Frandsen is a career .300 hitter in AAA whereas Galvis has never sniffed that at any level, even the lower levels. I doubt that you'll find anybody in the Phils organization who thinks Galvis will ever approach being a .300 hitter. Yes frandsen's sample is small but he showed no signs of letting up the longer he played whereas Kratz fell right back to about where he has always hit (.240-.250), after his hot start filling in for Chooch.....
@cdedrick....I don't think Youkalis can be had for a one year deal....he'll probably get atleast 2 just like Nix was given.
@phront......the opportunity for Frandsen and Galvis to drive in rbi's was not equal. Where you hit in the lineup makes a huge difference in your opportunity to drive in runs. Galvis for the most part hit 8th with usually a runner or two on base and every pitcher went after him trying to end the inning and leadoff with the pitcher the next. A big strategy in the NL with no DH. This combined with seeing a lot of fastballs early in the year when nobody knew him accounted for the vast majority of his rbi's. Frandsen on the other hand, hit leadoff, 2 spot and just about everywhere else but cleanup. Galvis regressed in his numbers the more he played just like Kratz while Frandsen did not. I like Galvis, I am a big supporter of his but not to the tune of taking a guy who hustles, plays a very decent 3rd base, hit .335 and with nearly a .400 obp out of this lineup. So he doesn't hit many HRs, big deal.— Mark1npt - It's hard to compare the two in large part due to the age difference. Frandsen was 22 when he hit the minors. Galvis was 17. At the age of 21, in AAA by that point, Galvis was hitting .298 (in 2011). His offense picked up a lot his last year in the minors. A lot of that could be an age/maturity factor. I'm not sure a minor league numbers comparison is a fair one given the age difference.
I like Frandsen and would like to see him continue what he showed this year.— s - None of the players listed will be the Phils starting 3b in 2013. Look for the Phils to sift through names like Michael Young, Headley, Beltre, Lowrie, Rendon and Ramirez.
Texas is looking for a stud 1b and pitching and names like Lee, Howard, Utley, Beltre and Young will be discussed. Young will not spend another season in Texas at 16 million to be a utility player. Not sure if anything will come of it but Hamilton is almost assuredly moving on and the Rangers will need to replace his numbers either at 1b or DH as no CF replacement with generate his numbers. They also have Olt to take over at 3b if they want to move Beltre's salary for multiple pieces.
RAJ knows he's got to do something major at 3b and corner OF, I believe he will make a trade to solve those positions and let CF play out with the internal candidates (Gillies, Mayberry, possibly Brown if the corners get filled).— LJ14 - I've always felt a big trade is likely to solve a number of the Phillies problems. That includes getting rid of more salary. I think this year was a wake up call and they now realize that tweaking around the edges won't get it done if they want to win another World Series. There's no guarantee that Amaro can make a trade happen but I think he'll be working that angle hard. He floated Lee's name out there at the trade deadline for a reason. And he dumped Victorino and Pence and the team played better. People may like to call him names but he's got two eyes like the rest of us. — s
Comment removed.- Headley solves several weaknesses (offense and defense). I'd give the Padres whatever they want.— Seegs
- Freddy Galvis does not offer the production offensively of even an average second baseman. Now, the plan is to move him to a position of power, third base? Mindless.— PhightinPhil
- Galvis is nothing but a utility player; if that. When will the philly media stop selling us that a .180 hitter is an everyday MLB player? He's a good glove; nothing else.— JBinPA
- Frandsen was just about the best player on the team in 2012 and displayed a winning attitude, grit, and determination while playing through injuries. He should be the starter until Asche wins the job from him. Galvis is a great example of how the Phillies ruin their young players. He is a shortstop and should be their regular shortstop. Nothing like developing your talent by jerking them around and having them play a new position every year.— jtj06
- I can't figure out if LJ14 is serious or not. Please tell me he is not. Beltre is signed through 2015 and posted a WAR of 6.9. Ramriez through 2015 a WAR of 5.1. Why would these teams deal this players? Headley is highly coveted and the Phillies simply don't have the players necessary to make that deal. Michael Young is perhaps the least valuable player in all of baseball and would be a downgrade over current 3B options on the roster. Seriously, have you watched him "play" defense. It is terrifying. Lastly, and what should be obvious...Howard is untradeable. Nobody is going to eat his contract for the production he brings. He had the worst contract in baseball before it even began. Add in the achilles issue and his trade value is next to nothing. The 3B next season will either be an oft injured stop gap or a combo of Fransden/Galvis. Not other solution is plausible.— Armyofthe15Monkies
- If the Rangers have both Olt and Beltre you have to think they have some flexibility in trading one of them to get other pieces they need. Like the Phillies, their list of big names isn't getting it done for them.
I don't agree with some of the specifics LJ14 alludes to but I do think trades are always possible. A lot of the projections we read assume trades are all but impossible. Amaro has shown before that he'll do the unexpected. Not that this is always a good thing ...— s
