State of the Phillies: Third base
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State of the Phillies: Third base
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Yesterday, we kicked off our week-long State of the Phillies series by breaking down the past, present and future of the first base and second base positions. Our mission over these next few days is to identify where, exactly, the Phillies can improve this roster. The lesson from yesterday was that any improvement won't come at first or second base. Or, for that matter, anywhere in the infield, a point that Ryan Lawrence expands upon in today's paper.
The Phillies do have a vacancy at third base, but they don't have much in the way of options for filling that vacancy. The free agent market is thin, as is the trade market (forget David Wright). In other words, it is business as usual for the organization.
The last time Phillies third basemen finished a season with better than a .697 OPS was 2004, when David Bell hit .289/.362/.455 to lead the position. The only similarity between the position then and the position now is that Placido Polanco played it. Of course, Polanco had as many home runs in 50 plate appearances that season as he had in 315 plate appearances this season: two.
2012: .672
2011: .665
2010: .697
2009: .686
2008: .695
2007: .688
2006: .684
2005: .692
2004: .828
I. 2012 production, Phillies third basemen (NL rank out of 16 teams in parentheses)
AVG: .272 (9)
OBP: .315 (11)
SLG: .357 (15)
OPS: .672 (15)
HR: 5 (16)
RBI: 42 (16)
RS: 50 (13)
BREAKDOWN: The above numbers pretty much tell the story. Placido Polanco was once again beset by injuries and is clearly winding down his career. In 78 games, he posted a .259/.301/.331 batting line. Ty Wigginton hit just .184 when playing the position and was not much better on defense. The one bright spot was Kevin Frandsen, who made the most of his opportunity, hitting .335/.377/.450 in 205 plate appearances at third base.
II. Future salary commitments (luxury tax threshold $178 million in 2013, increases to $189 million in 2014)
2012: $7.25 million, 3.37 percent of luxury tax threshold (Placido Polanco, 36 years old)
2013: None
FLEXIBILITY: The Phillies have plenty of flexibility to add personnel at the position. The $7.25 million salary listed above for Polanco include a $1 million buyout on a mutual option that is a formality at this point.
III. 2013 Organizational Depth Chart
- Freddy Galvis, 23, pre-Arb (1.000 service time) under club control through at least 2017.
- Kevin Frandsen, 31, arbitration eligible (est. 4.000 ST) under club control through at least 2014
- Cody Asche, 23, AA
BREAKDOWN: There are no easy answers at this position. Barring an unforeseen trade, Galvis figures to enter the season as the top defensive option at the position. The Phillies have yet to give an indication that they view Frandsen as an everyday player at the hot corner, talking about his prospects for 2013 more in the terms of a utility man or platoon player. The problem with a platoon is that Frandsen is a right-handed hitter who mashed lefties this year, and slick-fielding rookie Galvis was much better as a right-handed hitter. Galvis has never played third base, but he has shown he can play shortstop and second base and the Phillies are confident he would do the same at third. The big question is whether he can hit well enough to justify an everyday spot in a contending major league lineup. In 58 games before a back injury and PED suspension, Galvis hit just .226/.254/.363 with three home runs, 24 RBI and 14 runs. A repeat of those numbers would mean the Phillies actually got worse offensively at the position. Asche is the one hope for the future. He hit .324/.369/.481 with 12 home runs in 559 plate appearances at high-A Clearwater and Double-A Reading, but he will have to prove that he can field the position without being a glaring liability before he gets a shot in the majors. We should see him in big league spring training, but there is no way the Phillies can base their Opening Day plans for the position around Asche.
IV. Potential for personnel upgrades
TRADE POTENTIAL: There have been rumblings all season that the Padres are open to parting with veteran third baseman Chase Headley, whose plate approach and power potential would provide a perfect fit for this lineup. But the Padres also have a news ownership team that has locked up Carlos Quentin and Huston Street, and their strong finish to the season has tempered expectations that Headley will be traded. Houston's Jed Lowrie, who has 52 career starts at third base, is another player who you could at least envision being traded, given the Astros frequent activity in the trade market. That being said, the Astros probably wouldn't have much financial motivation to trade Lowrie, who made just $1.15 million 2012 as a first-time arbitration-eligible player. That means any team hoping to acquire him would likely have to overpay for a player who has never cracked 400 plate appearances in a season and whose career batting line is .250/.326/.417. Lowrie did hit 16 home runs in 387 plate appearances this season. There are no indications that the Mets are willing to trade David Wright. The Brewers made a late run at the postseason thanks in part to a .901 OPS and 27 home runs out of Aramis Ramirez, so it does not seem logical that they would trade the veteran. Plus, the Phillies could've signed Ramirez themselves last offseason if they viewed him as a solution at third base, although their philosophy was likely affected by the presence of Polanco.
FREE AGENT MARKET: Jeff Keppinger played third base for a playoff contender in Tampa Bay this season, posting an .806 OPS and .367 on base percentage. That being said, he had a .698 OPS in the four seasons prior. Kevin Youkilis, who had a solid run with the White Sox after Boston traded him away, could become a free agent if Chicago declines his $13 million extension. Eric Chavez had a solid season for the Yankees, but there is reason to doubt that he would hold up physically as an everyday third baseman. Same goes for Youkilis.
V. Third base, in conclusion
We'd have Galvis as our early favorite to enter the season as the regular third baseman, with Frandsen getting 300 to 400 at-bats, depending on whether he plays his way into more time. It would not be surprising to see the Phillies get creative at the position, but I have spent most of the season trying to figure out a creative way that they might fill the void and have failed to come up with a potential trade scenario. The likely scenario is rolling with Galvis and a low-cost veteran (perhaps Frandsen) and hoping they get lucky like the Rays did with Keppinger. With the rest of the holes that need to be filled, particularly in center field and perhaps one of the corner outfield spots. The Phillies can't afford to significantly overpay for the production they will receive, particularly if there are health concerns with the signee.
I'm with most of the posters here, specifically @Mark1npt, @zwarte and @eman, in asserting that Kevin Frandsen in combo with Galvis is the best bet for 2013. Frandsen gave us muich needed energy and a head for the game, and was as responsible for the Phils' awakening in August and early September as was anyone else on the team. Galvis is more than a plus defender, he can be one of the best glove men around and is needed on this club for more than just backing up 3B.
Also echoing all the posters who (correctly) pointed out that at least two OF positions need to be the GM's priority. Mayberry is lazy in the OF and brings almost nothing to the offense and Brown is a guaranteed two-hopper to second base at least twice per night and is hysterical in the outfield (ill-timed jumps, over-running flyballs, etc.). I believe all of us have seen enough of both of them to believe that they should platoon at best, although I wish that Mayberry would be sent packing.
The track record of Rubens A Moron Jr. is that he will do exactly the opposite of what most fans believe he should do, so prepare for Frandsen and Ruf to not be part of this team in 2013, and definitely do hold a spot on the opening-day roster for organizational darling Michael Martinez.
— advantasux- Polonco will retire. If the Phils want to go for it, they should
step up and make a play for David Wright at 3rd. They can still
dump a few more guys on the current payroll to offset that cost.
Their are a few vet outfielders they can also pick up that won't
cost a fortune. Galis will be a backup infielder along with
Frandsen. Both are not starting players on a playoff team.— mdcasino - In my opinion:
Platoon Galvis and Frandsen for next year while fixing the outfield and maybe another bullpen arm. Granted if something good comes up go for it but there is no need to force anything here. Frandsen has been good at the plate this season and even without hitting for much power, having a guy that can get on base and knock a double here and there is important. Sure Galvis has hit only .226 but he is a 22 year old rookie and the offensive should improve with time. Regardless if it is at 3rd, SS or 2nd he is the future of the Phils infield somewhere so getting him major league at bats is important. Also I will note that while hitting only 3 HRs he did have 15 doubles and 24 RBIs so even if he doesn't hit the ball over the fence he still has enough power and speed to get extra bases. If Utley, Howard and Halladay can come back healthy (even if they are not the stars they once were) this will be a dangerous team next year if they can find a solid centerfielder. Brown has shown flashes and I think goes into next season as a starting rightfielder but this is the last chance they should give him. Ruf and Schierholtz can split leftfield and Mayberry on the bench as he should be (his ability to play all 3 outfield positions as well as first base is nice). That leaves centerfield as the first issue to be fixed. Also even if some of the young arms in the pen came on late in the season I think picking up a solid vet is needed. After those two are fixed then we can talk 3rd base again (and a big part of this is lack of options in free agency and a poor farm system when thinking about trades).— MadChemist13 - The hesitation with Frandsen is he played in 55 games and that was the second most games he's ever managed to play in a major league season. He should get a shot to show he can continue that level of play but banking on it happening would be irresponsible. He also lacks some of the defense I would want at 3B. Asche has never showed up on anyone's top 3B prospects list. Franco gets ranked higher but he's further away. So rather than assume a year bridge to Asche they could also try trading for a top 3B prospect who could start in 2013. That idea was floating around out there at the trade deadline.— s
- Having Galvis learn and play some 3B is good regardless of what they do at 3B. It makes him more valuable as a utility guy. I'd like to see how he does defensively there. My guess is he would not disappoint. On a related note, if Hernandez is viewed as a Galvis with a better bat, why not see if he can play some 3B? Even if they're targeting him to replace Chase at 2B in 2014 I still think it couldn't hurt. Having these young guys try new positions is better than trying to convert veterans to new positions in my opinion. Hernandez is on the 40 man. They could have played him in some September games without any roster moves. Why not?— s
- The right move is to slide Jimmy over. Freddy has more range (youth) and Jimmy can extend his value - slide down to $5 or 6 in the lineup, and handle the hot corner. It worked for Cal, it worked for A-Roid, and gives fantastic Freddy a chance to shine where he'll do the most good defensively. Freddy's offense will come along.— kearnjo
- This is why it's tough to get too fired up about the Phillies winning. I'm not a Rollins fan, but he would be a perfect fir for 3B batting 6th. He would field the position well, and can't field SS as well as Galvis, and he likes to hit HRs. That's all you need. But the Phillies aren't going anywhere while a cancer like Rollins a) refuses to do what's best for the team, and b) isn't held accountable for being selfish. Meanwhile, Ryan Howard's probably putting on the pounds while he broken toe heals. Spending that $20 million is a good way to keep his mind off the fact that most big guys are short for this league as injuries accumulate to their legs. — jtj06
Frandsen and Galvis sounds like the ANSWER... johnnyu- They need a one year fix. It's not my money so I would gamble on Eric Chavez. He played over 100 games for the Yankees this season and could do the same for the Phils. Rest him two games a week and have Frandsen play the other games. If Chavez breaks down, the Phils are no worse off than they were this season, didn't give a out a stupid contract and bought some time for Asche. There are no long term solutions available via free agency this year and the Phillies have a prospect who may be a year away. If Ruben feels the need to spend money, spend it on an outfield. They don't have one player on the roster who is a legitimate starting outfielder. That's the priority.— syddan26
- Thanks for the reminder that Ramirez' .901 OPS would have made the difference for the Phils in 2012. Instead, we had the pleasure of witnessing the carcasses of Thome, Qualls, Nix and Wigginton all year. Ruin Tomorrow, please go away.— PhillyPhans10
- I thought it was interesting that folks think moving Utley to third and hyaving Galvis at second would improve things? What? Leave Utley at second, sit twice week especially early in the year. Galvis plays those two dates, plus Give Frandesen a spell once a week or two and that would give all three players 4 or 5 games a week. Saving some dimes. Since available power hitting third basement are as frequent as a blue moon these days, Frandsen is really an acceptable alternative( as long as he continues hitting) There isn't a lot to do except wait for the seasoning and maturation of Cody Asche...(I say here, If Asche shows Harper/trout like abilities next spring, start him!) We do need to develop our players. This includes Ruf who should start 4 games in outfield, one or two games at first against Ryan Howard's achilles heel pitchers. I think Ruf has shown he isn't a terrible slouch at the plate, if he plays and Ryan plays perhaps 2 guys with 100+ rbis... a lot more than we had this year. So Ruf isn't a natural outfielder who cares! The Bat (2008) and the Bull(1980) say it isn't completely necessary. One new position player, 2 new bullpen pieces, and maybe .,just maybe a 6th starter. We'd be competitive barring injuries.— Prausch
- I posted something similar before: Make Galvis the new Wilson Valdez and have him learn 3B as part of that. Give Utley some regular rest and even Rollins once in a while and let Galvis be Frandsen's defensive replacement at 3B with some starts there as well. That way he gets enough ABs to gauge his offense. But that would be my plan B. If I believed the team could win another World Series in 2013 my plan A would be to try trading for a 3B upgrade. For plan B to work I think they have to compensate by getting at least one top notch hitting outfielder. Either one may require a trade to get the player you really want. — s
- Two points:
1) I'm A:WAYS hoping I get Lucky. That is the only plan!!!
2) Sign Keppinger. For one thing, his name reminds me of Don Kessinger of olden days. And let's do the Cardinals thing and have a bunch of interchangeable parts. We need a Mark McLemore/Lenny Randle. Alan Bannister type but I don't know if decent utility players exist anymore.— Horst Muhlman lives on in all of us - @kearnjo...if Galvis was even a .250-.260 hitter I'd be tempted try what you are suggesting but to take a guy hitting .335 with a nearly .400 obp out of this already anemic lineup and replace him by moving your .250 hitting SS into his position and adding a .220-.230 hitter back in makes no sense. Amaro has talked for two years about changing the approach at the plate. People keep doubting Frandsen claiming he's really a .250 hitter and will regress. You sound like Obamonites reciting whatever stats makes you feel superior. Fact of the matter is, Frandsen is a career .300 hitter in AAA who hasn't gotten many opportunities at the ML level. In nearly every ab he had this year he displayed grit, a good eye and the ability to work a pitcher by fouling off tough pitches and then going with the pitch wherever it was to make good solid contact and line a single or double somewhere. IMO, if we had more guys like Frandsen and Pierre in the lineup working counts and frustrating pitchers, just like Chase usually does, the boppers (or whoever used to be boppers) would feast due to all the "pitcher agita" from dealing with these guys. Don't get mne wrong, I love the 3 run homer, but too often the last 2 years most HRs we hit have been solo jobs because nobody's on base. I want guys with a high obp in my lineup wherever I can get them. If I don't hit any 3 run HRs but I get 12-15 hits every night, we're still gonna score runs and win lots of games. How many times have we seen this cast of characters (Rollins, Vic, Howard, Ruiz, MMart, Mayberry, and yes Utley, too....come up with only 2-3 hits a game? Way too many.— Mark1npt
- I hope you see the contradiction here: Frandsen, with 228 major league games over 5 seasons before this year, "hasn't gotten many opportunities." But with 58 games under his belt we have the book on Galvis.
I like Frandsen and I'm all for giving him every shot to make the roster in 2013. But it's unwise (in my opinion) to assume too much about his great 55 games this year.
Galvis also has more upside than Frandsen given his age and great defense.
I think there's room for both unless they trade for a 3B upgrade, in which case Frandsen could be the odd man out.— s
