State of the Phillies: First base
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State of the Phillies: First base
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
This week, the Daily News and High Cheese will be taking an in-depth look at the Phillies roster moving forward, breaking down the state of each position as it relates to the future and the present. In Tuesday's newspaper, Ryan Lawrence will look at the infield. Today, we'll start things off with a look at first base.
The success of a lineup is dictated by the economics of salary and personnel distribution, and the Phillies' production at first base in 2012 was a prime example. The market of talent in baseball features a strong supply of players who can both hit for power and reach base at rates above the league average. Of the $178 million that a team can spend before it exceeds the luxury tax threshold, the Phillies allocated 14.05 percent to their starter at first base. Really, the number is slightly higher than that when you factor in the $10 million that each team is required to pay for player benefits, which counts against the threshold (in other words, teams can spend about $168 million on player salaries before going over the threshold). In 2012, the Phillies flunked those economics, as their production at third base was well below league average in most major offensive categories.
I. 2012 production, Phillies first basemen (NL rank out of 16 teams in parentheses)
AVG: .234 (13)
OBP: .308 (13)
SLG: .415 (11)
OPS: .723 (13)
HR: 27 (4)
RBI: 102 (3)
RS: 75 (10)
BREAKDOWN: Ryan Howard struggled after he returned from the disabled list in early July, hitting .219/.295/.423 with 99 strikeouts in 260 at-bats in 71 games. Howard maintained his knack for hitting with runners on base (his 56 RBI in 71 games would equate to 127 RBI in 162 games) and for hitting home runs (14 HR in 71 games equates to 31 HR in 162 games). But a .219 batting average and .295 on base percentage are significant detriments: if you value RBI, you must value runs scored, and a hitter must reach base in order to score runs. Howard recorded career-worst marks in walk rate, strikeout rate and at-bats-per-home-run. The first three months of the season featured Ty Wigginton (62 games, .757 OPS) and John Mayberry Jr. (24 games, .625 OPS) getting the bulk of the action at first base. Combined, the result was production that was well below what the majority of other National League teams received from first base.
II. Future Salary Commitments (Edited to reflect lux. tax threshold increase to $189 mil in '14)
2012: Ryan Howard, 33 years old, $20.0 million (14.05 percent of luxury tax threshold)
2013: Ryan Howard, 34 years old, $20.0 million (14.05 percent of luxury tax threshold)
2014: Ryan Howard, 35 years old, $25.0 million (13.23 percent of luxury tax threshold)
2015: Ryan Howard, 36 years old, $25.0 million (13.23 percent of luxury tax threshold)
2016: Ryan Howard, 37 years old, $25.0 million (13.23 percent of luxury tax threshold
2017: Ryan Howard, 38 years old, $23.0 million or $10 million buyout (13.23 percent or 0.00 percent of luxury tax threshold)
Flexibility: None. Howard is still owed $95 million in annual salary over the next four seasons, plus a $10 million buyout in 2017. His luxury tax cost is $25 million a season over the next four years, and he will be 33 years old during the 2013 season.
III. 2013 Organizational Depth Chart
- Ryan Howard, 33, $25 million average annual value (AAV) signed through 2016
- John Mayberry Jr., 29, pre-Arb (2.095 service time), club control through at least 2016
- Laynce Nix, 32, $1.25 million AAV signed thru 2013.
- Darin Ruf, 26, pre-Arb (< 1.000 ST), club control through at least 2018
- Erik Kratz, 33, pre-Arb (<1.000 ST), club control through at least 2018
BREAKDOWN: First base will not be a priority for the Phillies for the foreseeable future. Manuel said late in the season that he thought Kratz could handle spot duty at first base, although there is no indication that will play a major role in 2013. Ruf, like any player with one month of big league experience, is an unknown, although he is the best chance for the Phillies to have some young depth at the position over the life of Howard's contract.
IV. Potential for personnel upgrades
TRADE POTENTIAL: None. Even during Howard's healthy 2011 season, his .253/.346/.488 batting line and 33 home runs were nearly identical to Adam LaRoche's .271/.343/.510 and 33 home runs for the Nationals this year. LaRoche, of course, was making $8 million in AAV compared with $25 million for Howard. Just to give Howard away to another team, the Phillies would likely have to eat at least half of the money remaining on his contract.
Disagree? Prior to 2011, Paul Konerko signed a three-year, $37.5 million deal that covered his 35, 36 and 37 years old seasons. Howard is due to earn $75 million for his 35-to-37-year-old seasons, plus a $10 million buyout for his 38-year-old season. If Konerko's contract is what the free market would bear for those years of power production at first base, there is little reason to expect that a team would assume more than that amount in acquiring Howard. Factor in the fact that Konerko's number have been better than Howard's over the past few seasons, and that Konerko is not one year removed from a ruptured Achilles, and it is pretty safe to say that the market would view Howard as, at best, a $12.5 million-per-season player over the remaining four years of his contract.
The time for maneuvering at first base was the last few seasons, when Howard, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols and Adrian Gonzalez all signed new deals. The Phillies made their choice, and now it is on Howard to prove them right or wrong.
FREE AGENT MARKET: With a slew of elite first baseman having signed contract extensions over the previous few seasons, the 2013 market is not a strong one. Assuming the Nationals exercise LaRoche's $10 million option, the only potential everyday players available are Mike Napoli, Carlos Pena and James Loney. The rest: Jason Giambi, Eric Hinske, Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Casey Kotchman, Ty Wigginton, Lyle Overbay, Xavier Nady.
V. First base: In conclusion
The Phillies have no choice but to believe that Howard will get back to the production level he offered when they signed him to a five-year, $125 million contract extension during the 2010 season, when he still had two years left on his existing deal. The first baseman was not in the same physical condition that he was before his surgery, which the Phillies hope will be rectified by an offseason of his usual training regimen. General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has acknowledged that the Phillies' future will be dictated largely by the performance of the players who are earning significant dollars, and Howard is the most crucial member of that club.
- Ryan Howard deserves better from a class organization????? He is making 15% of the organization's pay, by himself! He doesn't deserve anything else from this organization until he starts to perform to his compensation.
— kozykoz26 - Highway robbery cashing those checks. Not his fault but wonder if he feels at all guilty taking such a large chuck of the teams payroll and not being able to deliver up to expectations? This is what's wrong with baseball…guaranteed contracts suck! Football they cut you if you are not performing and the contract ends.— connorjr
- He feels no worse than the Phillies do taking your money to watch a team that had very little heart in 2012.
The last month, the players really wanted the season to be over. It was evident in their play.— fmMD - @1republican.... It's amazing how quickly people jump on the band wagon. Ruf looks like he might be a good player. However he has what 20 big league at bats? No team would ever declar someone ready for the bigs so quickly. Slow it down with the Ruf is the future. Right now he's just a guy that had a tremendous season in AA.— bobf876
- Yeah, we should take more time with the 26 yr Ruf. I'm so tired of this front office and it's hypnotized fan base projecting distrust about our prospects. They do this because they have a roster full of aging under performers who they have misjudged and overpaid. They would rather go out and sign a journeyman whose proven his mediocrity on 4 different rosters than give a young guy with upside a little time under the bright lights. I scratch my head. A winning team is a mixture of battle-tested experience and the fresh and hungry ambition of youth. Guys like Ruf, whatever their pedigree or paycheck are the lifeblood of a winning organization. Guys like Howard - once great but far in decline and owed a fortune, are cancerous to any team's prospects. I would pay someone to take him. — auntesther
- Howard cannot hit Lefthanders! The Phils could win another 5-10 games simply by platooning him.— farley
- Yes, right now the contract stinks. However, if they didn't sign him then and he was healthy and put up two more big seasons, he would be looking at slightly less than what Pujols and Fielder got last offseason. The Phillies took a calculated risk and due to the fact that Howard got hurt, it backfired. Right now his value is low, but if he can come back and have a big season or two in 2013 and 2014, they could trade him and get some value for him and let Ruf play 1st base in 2014/2015.— sjuhawk416
- @ David Murphy. One point you fail to touch on regarding Howard's contract/ extension and what the going free market rate would be in comparison to Konerkos is the fact that almost 100% of National League teams will lose out on signing a premiere free agent first baseman. With that said lets take a look at the first basemen that have left the NL as free agents - Adam Dunn, Mark Texeira, Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols. Ones that left because of future salary or signability issues - Miguel cabrera, Adrian Gonzalez. And ones that remained and reupped in the AL - Konerko, Ortiz.
The issue that NL teams have to contend with when thinking of extending or offering a free agent first baseman is the designated hitter. There is absolutely no way that an NL team can contend with an AL team when offering a contract. The difference being the guaranteed years a NL team can guarantee a first baseman until that player gets to old or is unproductive and does not offer any value anymore since he can't field his position. AL teams usually are capable of making a contract that is TWICE as long as a contract offer from a NL team work because of the DH rule.
Since NL cannot offer these guys contracts as long as AL teams they then need to compensate and compete with AL team contract offers somehow....that is where Ryan Howard's contract actually becomes a case study as to how NL teams would need to compete with AL teams.
— michael2_19030 - As a follow up to my last post and to sum everything up:
AL contracts to premiere 1B = 8-10 years at a high annual salary
On the flip side
NL contracts to premiere 1B = 4-6 years but an even HIGHER annual salary that the AL contract
Phillies found themselves gambling on Howard. Gambling that if he had two more seasons similar to one ones he had before signing the extension they would be out of the running for signing him, Pujols, Fielder, Gonzalez or any other premiere first base free agent that would likely sign with an AL team thus leaving them with someone to play 1B that would not be able to produce at the level they were used to.
It was a gamble that they lost on. But there was a thought process. Phillies didn't just throw 20-25 million or 5 years out there without thinking it through.— michael2_19030 - BB you said it
Myself- (1) he has the talent; (2) now he has the motivation; (3) even at half strengtht he became a force in the line up.— jbcanoe - BOBF876: HOWARD IS WASHED UP. GET OVER IT. HIS PRODUCTION HAD GONE DOWN CONSISTENTLY IN 2010 AND 2011, BOTH YEARS IN WHICH HE PLAYED WITHOUT INJURY. IF YOU THINK HE'S WORTH $25 MIL, START SENDING MONTHLY CHECKS TO THE PHILLIES ORGANIZATION TO HELP DEFRAY THE COST OF PAYING HIM. AN OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF FANS WOULD LIKE TO SEE HIM IN THE AL EVEN IF THE CLUB HAS TO EAT HALF HIS SALARY.— 1republican
- BB, I agree with your assessment. Really Howard should never have come back this season at all. But the way the season was going, he felt obligated to do something. I get the feeling that he will feel the same in this off-season and spring training. He knows that he had a sub-par year (regardless of injury) and is making 20M+. He wants to validate his contract which means he will play through all of spring training and the 2013 season. Unfortunately, he will also put a ton of pressure on himself to exceed his '06-10 years and he will take a ton of flak if he falters in the least bit. The only reason he gets such treatment is his contract. Which through no fault of his own, was offered at the peak of his offensive production.— PhillyinBmore
- All the analysis yields "no change"= why waste your time..........how about an article on how and why this happened - what were inputs for the decisions and accountability?? Try it - you may get somewhere with it.— Northcountry
- He'll still hit 30 hr's and knock in 125 runs a year, but he'll also hit .220 with 200 strikeouts, and be a liability at first base. Bottom line is that he's not terrible, and would be an asset were it not for the money that they are paying him, that could have been used to fortify another position— blaqjaq
- I bet on Howard making a comeback.
