State of the Phillies: Center field
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State of the Phillies: Center field
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Yesterday, we kicked off our week-long State of the Phillies series by breaking down the past, present and future of the first base and second base positions. Our mission over these next few days is to identify where, exactly, the Phillies can improve this roster. The outfield is one such area, although the free agent market isn't exactly bursting with talent there either. In today's story in the Daily News, Ruben Amaro Jr. tells Ryan Lawrence that the trade market could offer some possibilities. Here, we break it down.
This is the position that offers the most options for the Phillies thanks to the relative abundance of center fielders who are scheduled to hit free agency. Like most of the other positions on the market, though, this one does not offer a ton of high-end options, meaning to land one a team will have to open up the checkbook.
I. 2012 production, Phillies center fielders (NL rank out of 16 teams in parentheses)
AVG: .268 (7)
OBP: .332 (10)
SLG: .412 (8)
OPS: .745 (9)
HR: 16 (7)
RBI: 66 (6)
RS: 75 (13)
BREAKDOWN: Like most aspects of this Phillies team, center field was a tale of two halves. The first half featured Shane Victorino posting a below-average batting line of .261/.324/.401 with nine home runs. The second one featured John Mayberry Jr. posting a line of .258/.330/.399 with six home runs. The first three months saw the Phillies get poor bang for their buck (a $9.5 million salary for Victorino). The final two months saw the Phillies get about the bang they paid for in a $480,000 salary for Mayberry. All told, the Phillies were about league average, with below average marks in on base percentage and runs scored (funny how those two categories seem to be related).
II. Future Salary Commitments
2012: $9.5 million, 5.34 percent of luxury tax threshold (Shane Victorino, Opening Day)
2013: None
FLEXIBILITY: Plenty. End of story.
III. 2013 Organizational Depth Chart
- John Mayberry Jr., 29, pre-Arb (2.095 ST) under club control through 2016
- Nate Schierholtz, 29, arb-eligible, $1.3 million in 2012 (4.078 ST) under club control through 2014
- Tyson Gillies, 24, AA
BREAKDOWN: Mayberry spent most of the half playing center field. He can handle the position defensively, and performs well enough against left-handed pitchers that he is in the conversation. But at this point he projects as a rotational guy at best. Schierholtz spent some time in center field but he doesn't appear to have the range to be a viable everyday or even platoon guy. I did not list Michael Martinez because he really shouldn't be in the conversation for anything more than organizational depth. Gillies posted an .809 OPS in 339 plate appearances at Double-A Reading. This is a make-or-break year for him. The Phillies saw some reason for hope last season, but he'll need to stay on the field and perform while he is there for the entire first half of 2013 before we start talking about him as a potential big leaguer.
IV. Potential for Personnel upgrades
FREE AGENT MARKET: Aside from the bullpen, this is the vacancy that has the greatest volatility for the Phillies moving forward. There are so many options available that there is plenty of potential to grab a guy at a reasonable cost will ends up having a big season and making a difference in the lineup. Identifying which guys will fall into that category is the tricky part. I don't think even the Phillies know what direction they will head at this point. The smart play is patience, since the only clear difference-maker available is Josh Hamilton, and that situation is so unique that I find it hard to believe that the Phillies would make a serious push. Patience could be difficult to exert, since the center field market has all the makings of one in which agents and players will spend the early part of the offseason waiting for the first domino to fall. Michael Bourn and B.J. Upton are likely the first two dominos, but both have the right combination of potential and red flags to lead to a stalemate with teams who target them. Which would likely leave players like Angel Pagan and Melky Cabrera and Shane Victorino waiting around for the top of the market to get set. Those five are the clear everyday options who will be available. Cody Ross and Scott Hairston probably are not everyday options, although it would not surprise me to see one of those two land with the Phillies. At least right now it wouldn't. That could change as we look deeper at the position, which we'll do between now and the start of free agency. At this point, though, the Phillies' likely path is impossible to predict.
TRADE MARKET: Buster Olney reported earlier this week that Chris Young is very much available from the Diamondbacks. There are plenty of reasons why such a deal probably wouldn't make sense for the Phillies. For starters, Young is a career .224/.311/.409 hitter away from Chase Field, compared with a .254/.325/.465 hitter at home. Secondly, he is a career .228/.299/.419 hitter against righties. Since roughly 2/3rds of his plate appearances are going to come against righties, that can be a problem. Third, he is due to make $8.5 million in 2012, along with a $1.5 million buyout of an $11 million club option. If the Diamondbacks are not expecting anything in the way of prospects in return, $10 million for one season of Chris Young would not be the worst idea in the world. Still Gerardo Parra would make a lot more sense. But he'd also seem to make more sense for the Diamondbacks to keep. Which is why trading for players is not easy.
Denard Span has spent all season hearing his name in trade rumors. Again, this one falls into the category of not being worth the price it would likely cost to obtain him. Span hit .283/.342/.395 this season, but over the last three years that line is .271/.334/.367. He is affordable at $11.25 million over the next two seasons. But it still would appear to make more sense to go with a lower-cost free agent option instead of spending prospects on a player who really hasn't shown above-average hitting ability since his first couple of years in the league.
V. Center field: In conclusion
Judging by the emails I have received, there is a contingent of fans who would like to see the Phillies bring back Shane Victorino instead of pursuing change for change's sake. My intuition tells me that this is unlikely to happen, mostly because Ruben Amaro Jr. and Charlie Manuel have both said publicly that they believe that change for change's sake can be a good thing. That being said, the market has a funny way of affecting these decisions, and it could very well shake out that Victorino is the most cost-effective option.
- Ha ... I see your post on Fowler in the other outfield thread El Zorro. Good points. I figured he was better at Coors but I didn't look the splits up. I'd still take him for the right package.
A guy like Fowler had better lead-off numbers than Rollins last year. Even a guy like Coco Crisp, who may be tradeable with Cespedes in the picture (not sure if I'm interested but he may be available).
I think if I were GM I'd be looking to end the "Rollins has to lead off" debate once and for all as part of getting the players I need.
If not trades are made I think I'll be disappointed. I think they need to do more than pay some overpriced free agents and give some of the same guys yet another year to bloom. Some pieces need to be moved.— s - once again, the ego of the moron RAJ gets in the way of a good business decision.— Richardgozinya
- Headley and Upton— Seegs
- So Mayberry provides average centerfield production at 480k, and a change needs to made? Why? Save the money, use it for the bp and 3rd. All of the possible replacements are either no better, or prohibitively expensive, and still have their own issues. Why is this a tough decision, bring back mayberry!— mjc1
- Yes. mjc1, if you look at the production of Phillies RF they were at the bottom on most categories and that was because Pence put avg to avobe avg numbers in the first half, while Mayberry put similar numbers than Victorino and the our CF were avg. Yet, the writers and some posters want Brown to start and Mayberry to warm the bench. Somebody please explain that to me, and I don't want to hear upside. We have been waiting 3 years for that upside to pan out and to borrow a phrase from the great Yogi Berra, it's getting late early. BTW, Pagan hit a homer in his first AB. His asking price is going up.— EL Zorro
- If Shane was so great, why was he traded? He is gone, let him go. Time to upgrade and move beyond this aging group. Resigning Victorino is absolutely the wrong direction this team needs to take. Have to agree with Faber.— billtfla
- Cody Ross is no centerfielder ! Neither is Shierholtz.
Hamilton played left mostly with the Rangers - barely adequate as a centerfielder.
Bourn is very good defensively but strikes out way too much. The belief is that he is very vulnerable to high velocity fastballs.
Victorino is a switch hitter which makes him an everyday player. Still chases down the ball with the best of them but arm still not fully back to where it was three years ago. His market value really dipped after a rather dissapointing season with the Phillies and Dodgers. May be had at a bargain price. High upside for a big rebound year. Worth another look if the price is right. Might be a difference maker if he could hit .300 again and steal 30+ bases. Would still save a lot of runs with his defense. Could be the best one out there for a team willing to take a chance.
— candidly - Not fully true. Hamilton has played more CF than LF career. In 2010/2011 he played more LF. This year more CF again. He's also played some RF.
Hamilton seems like a huge risk but if it paid off it would also be huge. It's interesting to consider. Also too many LH hitters in the lineup again but I'm not sure it matters with the power he could bring.
I really have no interest in Bourn and I'm very lukewarm about a Victorino return. That ship seems to have sailed. A guy like Schierholtz could easily end up in a trade package. Assuming they get a new outfielder or two there are too many outfielders vying for bench spot. A few guys are likely going to be playing somewhere else. I can't see that any outfielder is a lock if the right trade can be made.— s - Hamilton isn't close to as risky as the deals signed with Howard in 2010 and Rollins before this year. If you can get him for 5 years or less- ideally 4- you'd have to consider it and do it if you had the money. — jtj06
- @s, Fowler's numbers look good. 300 BA, 13 HR and .863 OPS. However, he had a .332 BA and .984 OPS at Coors Fields. On the road, he hit .262 with an .720 OPS. 10 of his 13 HR were hit at home. For his career he has posted a .243 BA-698 OPS away from home. At friendly Coors Field .295/882. He still very young at 26 and athletic, though. It depends of what the Rockies ask for him. I don't know if you part with Biddle. I'll give them KK and Trevor Mays. As for the Nats, that was the GM's decision to shut down Strasburg. It's not looking good right now. He should be fired for that and for giving Werth that big contract.— EL Zorro
- Personally, I would not part with Biddle for Fowler. I think Biddle is lining up to be a stud pitcher. Plus he's local. I have to admit I like that. — s
- Strongly disagree RE: Rizzo in Washington. The Werth signing worked out beautifully. He said at the time he wanted to make a big splash for a winning player to change the attitude and he was willing to overpay for that-- almost desiring to overpay-- to send the signal to the organization that the time to win is now. It seems to have worked. Gillick did that when he went after Garcia. People pan that deal, but it was that deal that inspired Rollins to call the Phillies the "team to beat in the NL East." Before then second place and a winning record seemed to be satisfactory outcomes- taking a bold, risky move signaled that it was not. Shutting down SS was a good move too. At the end of the day it will pay off big time. — jtj06
- Whoa ... Ibanez. I dissed him a bit because I don't want him back but I like Raul and I'm happy for his success. I like these Orioles though.— s
- I'm sorry, but it's go-for-broke time: Hamilton in center, batting third or fourth, and we have a new team. Sign a Cody Ross or Angel Pagan for quality depth, mix in Brown, Nix, Mayberrry (or not!). At that point, I'd let third base solve itself, with Frandsen in the lead and Galvis behind him. Maybe Asche in September.
I mean, how about this lineup: 1. Rollins (not ideal); 2. Utley; 3. Hamilton; 4. Howard; 5. Ruiz (a push but it is what it is); 6. Ross/Pagan; 7. Brown or the other outfield mix guy; 8. Frandsen/Galvis.
The only difference-maker out there is Hamilton and a lot of top-spending teams won't be in the market for him after generous 2011 seasons: Angels, Dodgers, Marlins, Nationals, Tigers.
Is Hamilton a gamble? Sure. Would he hit something like: .285, 40 HR and 120+ RBI in CBP, while playing a decent center field for the next 2-3 years (then move him to left)? Probably. Are we a big market team with a chance to win it all in the next 2-3 years, or aren't we?
— eman
