Someone's gotta blink...
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Someone's gotta blink...
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Thus far, the trade deadline is unfolding as we expected, with the few teams with desireable resources holding firm on their asking prices to the plethora of teams who all seem to be searching for the same thing.
Today in the New York Post, esteemed national baseball writer Joel Sherman includes a conversation with an anonymous baseball executive whose team has expressed interest in Carlos Beltran. That executive proceeds to lay out the case why the Mets will not be getting a Top 40 prospect in return for Beltran. We probably don't have to point out the obvious conflicts of interest here, but we will anyway. A team that has interest in Beltran is going to do everything in its power to play down the asking price for said player, if only because it will then have a trickle down effect on the market price for other trade candidates. The exec contends that the Mets are going to have to settle for a package of B-level prospects rather than the elite prospect they seek.
One of his rationalizations is the Mark Teixeira and Matt Holliday deals, which are described as a "pittance." Except, as we detailed in a previous post, those deals weren't exactly "pittances." Brett Wallace was a Top 50 prospect who was swapped for Holliday. He is now starting at first base for the Astros and having a solid season. The Braves, meanwhile, landed Casey Kotchman, a major-league ready hitter who was a former Top 10 prospect. I do agree with the executive's contention that teams totally overvalue their prospects. For example, knowing the Phillies' history and organizational philosophy, they would much rather trade Vance Worley than any of their young pitchers, even though Worley has at least shown that he can hold his own against major league hitters and those young pitchers are all at least two or three years away from even getting that chance to prove themselves. That's not saying that Worley has as much upside as Trevor May. But he at least looks like he has a future as a No. 4 or No. 5 starter or, at the very least, a solid bullpen piece. The young pitchers, meanwhile, are still competing against kids who can't legally drink alcohol, and have several years to get hurt or run into other road blocks in their development.
Regardless, it will be interesting to see how the Beltran situation resolves itself. One of the enjoyable parts of the trade deadline is watching the smoke signals that rival general managers send to each other through the media. For example, the executive that talked to Sherman is likely trying to forge some unity amongst the various teams who are competing for Beltran, laying out what an acceptable asking price is. But all it takes is one team to really want Beltran and be willing to part with what it will take to get a deal done. I still get the feeling that is going to happen, that the pressure of the deadline and the pressure to win this year will prompt a GM to part with the prospect the Mets desire.
I do not think that team will be the Phillies. They have too many competitors this time around to get away with the type of deal they used to land Roy Oswalt. Which is why their best course of action may be to go for quantity over quality: a second-division right-handed hitter along with a couple of relievers or maybe even a couple of hitters along with a relievers. Brandon League is a name that has been mentioned, but I don't know how much stock I would place into that. He has a great groundball rate, but he isn't really strikeout pitcher and he's been pitching in a pitcher's park the last couple of years. I just don't see what he brings you that makes him worth parting with anybody of value. The Marlins' Randy Choate would be a viable addition. Oakland lefty Craig Breslow is a guy who is supposedly available, but lefties have been hitting him pretty hard this season.
The biggest relief name out there is the Padres Heath Bell. Depending on the asking price, he'd be a solid addition. But I just don't know that he is going to be worth his asking price. Mike Adams is the better piece in that bullpen, although all of the national reports suggest that he is staying put. If the Phillies do not land a Beltran or a Hunter Pence or a B.J. Upton, the goal should be to fill a couple of needs. Josh Willingham and a reliever or Reed Johnson and a reliever would be my top two targeted packages, but that's just me. I'd also keep an eye on the Marlins' Omar Infante. He's struggled offensively this year, but he brings a lot of value in his versatility, and it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for the Phillies to build themselves some more infield depth.
Johnson is more of a rotational guy who could play right or left in place of Domonic Brown or Raul Ibanez plus provide some better right-handed punch off the bench. He is also a gritty veteran who is regarded as a great clubhouse guy. Willingham would be more of an every day option, although his defense leaves something to desire. Otherwise, there aren't a whole lot of options out there. A package that includes Ryan Ludwick along with one of the Padres relievers wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. I'm not a huge Ludwick fan. But again, that's just me. He'd definitely give opposing pitchers, particularly lefties, something to think about as they face Ryan Howard. Beyond Ludwick, though, I don't see a lot out there. Conor Jackson is a guy we've mentioned here before, and he's been swinging well lately, but he is more in the Reed Johnson mode. Adding a couple of bats wouldn't be the worst idea, but I don't get the sense that the Phillies think they need to do that.
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- pence is not a better player than werth. from 2008-2010 (since you are obviously speaking in past tense "ever was"), werth had more HR, doubles and RBI than Pence. don't the people calling for pence realize he has never hit more than 25 HR in a season, never had more than 91 RBI in a season, and never had more than 34 doubles in a season. this is not the type of player that you move top prospects for (let alone three top prospects as was suggested in a article today).
pence is a nice player. he was an all-star this year. however, he is not a franchise type player he is made out to be on these discussion boards. he is not a player the phillies should mortgage their future to acquire when they are already the best team in baseball. they should find another player who can fill the RH Bat void at a lesser price than what the astros will demand for their best player (who happens to be the best player on a dreadful team).— wobblie - IOW trade two prospects for Hunter Pence, who, if you'd actually bothered to look, is no where near Jayson Werth. The single reason I can see he was an all-star this year is the stupid "a player from every team" rule. That is all Hunter Pence amounts to being: The "best" player on a really horrid team! — BEMiller
- Thanks jtj, some people like to post without knowing the facts or just ignoring them. I also agree Beltran is going to pick the team, no the other way around. Most likely he'll want to stay in the East.— EL Zorro
- Hunter Pence will also look great, but the Astros are not giving him away cheap. As good as he is, he's not worth it what the Astros would ask in return (Brown, Cosart and Singleton). Those are our 3 best prospects, according to BA or Keith Law. I would trade Brown and a mid-level prospect for Pence.— EL Zorro
- That's my feeling too: Brown and an average prospect is a fair price for Pence. I'm okay with trading Brown at this point. He's too much of a work in progress and he may never live up to his hype.
— s - foolish statement: brown has played in 86 games and has 235 AB. how can you make a judgement on a player who has played so little? brown is not ready to be an everyday right fielder and would be in the minors had the phillies had another player. your idea is to trade him becasue he is not ready? why not find another player, put them in RF, send brown down, and then bring him up when he is ready? — wobblie
- The only thing that would make Hunter Pence a worthwhile acquisition is if he is CHEAP! — BEMiller
- We need to nail down this WS this year and get Pence.
Let Brown and cosart and singleton go for Pence.
Brown will be a good player stuck in Houston and will never be heard from again. Singleton is a first basemen who tried to play outfield but cant thus he is blocked by Howard. Cosart is the real question mark and may be a top of the rotation starter but who knows???
Come on Rube trade Brown,Singleton,and Cosart for Hunter Pence who is the missing piece. Pence will be great in Philadelphia. Go get him please.— Bob65S - Stupid, stupid, stupid. Since May 1, Pence has 7 homers, 16 doubles, 41 RBI and a .290 batting average. Since May 1, Raul Ibanez has 12 homers, 18 doubles, 41 RBI and a .274 batting average. Please stop pretending that Pence is a difference maker.
— phillyl0 - Frankly, I'm really happy someone has notice that Raul Ibanez has done pretty well since the early season horrors. The much over-rated Hunter Pence is no cure for anything, excepting, perhaps, winning. — BEMiller
- Willingham? The phillies need a guy to hit .240 like i need a certain hole on my elbow.— p
- Pence would be a nice acquisition, but trading Brown for him would be crazy. I'm willing to bet that Brown puts up better numbers than Pence for the rest of this season and for the future- forget about it. Three years from now if Brown puts up Pence numbers people will be wondering what's wrong with him.— jtj06
- "Pence would be a nice acquisition…" Is that the Blarney Stone you have for sale? The much over-rated Hunter Pence would NOT be a nice acquisition at all! — BEMiller
- Why not start Mayberry in Right field. He has looked good since being called up. Brown and Mayberry can platoon.— zeke128
- GET Pence...Brown is never going to live up to his potential, and even if he does it will be at least 3 years from now. Give them Cosart too...wh.o knows what he will become....we to win this year and the nxt!— plaurie
