Someone's gotta blink...
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Someone's gotta blink...
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Thus far, the trade deadline is unfolding as we expected, with the few teams with desireable resources holding firm on their asking prices to the plethora of teams who all seem to be searching for the same thing.
Today in the New York Post, esteemed national baseball writer Joel Sherman includes a conversation with an anonymous baseball executive whose team has expressed interest in Carlos Beltran. That executive proceeds to lay out the case why the Mets will not be getting a Top 40 prospect in return for Beltran. We probably don't have to point out the obvious conflicts of interest here, but we will anyway. A team that has interest in Beltran is going to do everything in its power to play down the asking price for said player, if only because it will then have a trickle down effect on the market price for other trade candidates. The exec contends that the Mets are going to have to settle for a package of B-level prospects rather than the elite prospect they seek.
One of his rationalizations is the Mark Teixeira and Matt Holliday deals, which are described as a "pittance." Except, as we detailed in a previous post, those deals weren't exactly "pittances." Brett Wallace was a Top 50 prospect who was swapped for Holliday. He is now starting at first base for the Astros and having a solid season. The Braves, meanwhile, landed Casey Kotchman, a major-league ready hitter who was a former Top 10 prospect. I do agree with the executive's contention that teams totally overvalue their prospects. For example, knowing the Phillies' history and organizational philosophy, they would much rather trade Vance Worley than any of their young pitchers, even though Worley has at least shown that he can hold his own against major league hitters and those young pitchers are all at least two or three years away from even getting that chance to prove themselves. That's not saying that Worley has as much upside as Trevor May. But he at least looks like he has a future as a No. 4 or No. 5 starter or, at the very least, a solid bullpen piece. The young pitchers, meanwhile, are still competing against kids who can't legally drink alcohol, and have several years to get hurt or run into other road blocks in their development.
Regardless, it will be interesting to see how the Beltran situation resolves itself. One of the enjoyable parts of the trade deadline is watching the smoke signals that rival general managers send to each other through the media. For example, the executive that talked to Sherman is likely trying to forge some unity amongst the various teams who are competing for Beltran, laying out what an acceptable asking price is. But all it takes is one team to really want Beltran and be willing to part with what it will take to get a deal done. I still get the feeling that is going to happen, that the pressure of the deadline and the pressure to win this year will prompt a GM to part with the prospect the Mets desire.
I do not think that team will be the Phillies. They have too many competitors this time around to get away with the type of deal they used to land Roy Oswalt. Which is why their best course of action may be to go for quantity over quality: a second-division right-handed hitter along with a couple of relievers or maybe even a couple of hitters along with a relievers. Brandon League is a name that has been mentioned, but I don't know how much stock I would place into that. He has a great groundball rate, but he isn't really strikeout pitcher and he's been pitching in a pitcher's park the last couple of years. I just don't see what he brings you that makes him worth parting with anybody of value. The Marlins' Randy Choate would be a viable addition. Oakland lefty Craig Breslow is a guy who is supposedly available, but lefties have been hitting him pretty hard this season.
The biggest relief name out there is the Padres Heath Bell. Depending on the asking price, he'd be a solid addition. But I just don't know that he is going to be worth his asking price. Mike Adams is the better piece in that bullpen, although all of the national reports suggest that he is staying put. If the Phillies do not land a Beltran or a Hunter Pence or a B.J. Upton, the goal should be to fill a couple of needs. Josh Willingham and a reliever or Reed Johnson and a reliever would be my top two targeted packages, but that's just me. I'd also keep an eye on the Marlins' Omar Infante. He's struggled offensively this year, but he brings a lot of value in his versatility, and it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for the Phillies to build themselves some more infield depth.
Johnson is more of a rotational guy who could play right or left in place of Domonic Brown or Raul Ibanez plus provide some better right-handed punch off the bench. He is also a gritty veteran who is regarded as a great clubhouse guy. Willingham would be more of an every day option, although his defense leaves something to desire. Otherwise, there aren't a whole lot of options out there. A package that includes Ryan Ludwick along with one of the Padres relievers wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. I'm not a huge Ludwick fan. But again, that's just me. He'd definitely give opposing pitchers, particularly lefties, something to think about as they face Ryan Howard. Beyond Ludwick, though, I don't see a lot out there. Conor Jackson is a guy we've mentioned here before, and he's been swinging well lately, but he is more in the Reed Johnson mode. Adding a couple of bats wouldn't be the worst idea, but I don't get the sense that the Phillies think they need to do that.
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i don't get the bullpen thing, if our starting pitcher lets up 2-3 runs and we can't score that many, we lose?— main liner- Every Pence article I cry "Get him now"...These people just don't understand or appreciate how good he is. Look at his numbers on a truly awful Astros team, just imagine how well he will thrive in Philly. He is absolutely worth Brown and another, if not two, prospects. This guy can play and plays with a true love of the game. In the many times I've seen him in person, you just can't help but enjoy watching him, lanky scarecrow runnin, hustlin..he is really that good. Not only that, but his clubhouse presence, leadership, and community spirit, I'm surprised Astros would even think about trading him. He's 28, locked down for two years, already an allstar, would thrive in CBP, and he can field. So..what's not to like? Am I a Hunter Pence fan..lol, like I said, watching the Phillies play in Houston a few times, I was overly impressed with this guy..Get this done !!!!— TexasYankee
- Actually, the opposite is more apt to be the case. Players usually do better on horrid teams than on good since there is no pressure to actually produce on the horrid teams. Why anyone would be impressed by Hunter Pence is just unbelievable! — BEMiller
- I agree with some of these readers -- Pence is the better choice. He's a proven corner outfielder, strong arm, kills the Phils at the plate. Beltran is injury prone and a free agent. I hate to see Brown go, but I'd keep Mayberry over Brown at this point anyway. Now its up to Rube.— wipyousguys
- @farley - I'm not sure how you can say Pence is better than Weth ever was. yes, we all know how Werth is struggling this year. But if you compare their 2009 and 2010 seasons (the 2 seasons they were both full time starters), Werth has WAR of 5.9 and 5.4, vs. 2.8 and 4.0 for Pence. Weth had better OBP and slugging, as well as more HRs and RBIs, if you prefer the traditional stats. Werth even had better stats in all those categories in 2008 (except 1 less HR), despite not being a full time starter (he shared time with Jenkins most of the season). Pence is a nice player, but over the past 3 years his performance is not even close to Werth.— Phils Phan 28
- Where's Ruben?— shawnmac
- Probably, just as always, RAJ is doing his job, quietly, behind the scenes, and off the radar. That's how he's done it, and well, so far! — BEMiller
- The only reason Pence has good numbers is because Astros play in a small park— Ace-Philadelphia
- as much as i'd love to see Beltran,...his agent is Boras and the Phils just downright hate that guy,....same agent for Madsen and Dom Brown so don't be surprised to see Brown moved and Madsen gone after this year,.....thinking brown and a package for heath bell and ludwick— SyddBarrett
- Boras, who negotiated Madson's current contract, is the reason the Phillies will get Beltran. Beltran has full control over where he goes and he is going to go to the place that is best for him. Boras wouldn't let him do otherwise. That isn't Atlanta and their big ball park and it isn't SF where he would be expected to be the whole offense. It's Philadelphia, which is also fairly close to his current residence. Boras does a great job of putting his players in a position to succeed and helping them achieve their goals. Beltran wants a ring, has trade veto power, and Boras on his side-- so you can book it he will be coming to the Phillies or staying with the Mets. — jtj06
- Since this is his contract year, Carlos Beltran's agent is rather beside the point. Most agents only do what they are paid to do in any case. (Did you know that agents are paid on the premise they will get the best possible contract they can for their clients?) I should think that CB might actually lean toward coming to Philadelphia for the rest of this year since the Phillies probably offer him the best shot at getting a championship! — BEMiller
- to the people speaking in behalf of getting Carlos Beltran.. and giving up a few of our good but not best prospects.. you have it right on.. Beltran has close to a 400 OBP this year.. He is in the midst of a hot streak at the plate lately.. He is playing for a new deal. This guy is an all star caliber player and is the kind of guy who can carry a team for awhile. There's no way Houston lowers demands enough to trade for Pence right now.. Why trade for a righty platoon bat when most starting pitchers are right handed? Mayberry and Francisco are adequate to use in platoon roles. If a trade is to be made.. get a star and not a mid level player like we already have. The right move is for Beltran. The offer should be for one of our lesser "Baby Aces" and Francisco and if need be one minor league reliever as well.— bradco
- Matt Kemp is the answer! Bench strength: Hideki Matsui?— Seegs
- How do the Phillies compete if the Braves get Beltran and the Giants get Pence?— sonnybuoy01
- Unusually good comments today, with some in the pro-Beltran camp having me reconsider my extreme objection to trading for him. BTW: I don't think the Phillies make a move before Friday. By then, Worley will have pitched vs. the Giants and Oswalt will have made his first rehab start in the minors and had a day to assess how his back responded. If things go well, I think the Phillies trade Worley and Singleton and one of the baby aces for Pence and take their chances with Beltran going to the Braves or Giants.— andrewfrombrooklyn
