Some perspective on Cliff Lee
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Some perspective on Cliff Lee
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
It is funny how our brains work. As a sports writer, a large chunk of my job involves typing names and typing them correctly, often in a short frame of time. A lot of us have certain names that give us trouble. Earlier this season, while filing a story involving Matt Lindstrom, the Marlins closer, I accidentally typed the name Nik Lidstrom, the hockey player (and, coincidentally, as I tried to write Nik Lidstrom earlier today on this blog, I typed Erik Lidstrom). During spring training, when writing about John Mayberry, the Phillies outfielder, I would often catch myself typing Jermane Mayberry, the former Eagles offensive lineman. And just now, while writing a headline for a blog post about Cliff Lee, the Indians ace, I found myself typing a headline about Travis Lee, the former Phillies first baseman.
Lee, the Phillies first baseman, was involved in the deal that sent Curt Schilling to Arizona in exchange for a less-than-blockbuster package of players. Now, we are talking about another Lee, in the opposite circumstance, potentially headed to Philadelphia in a cost-cutting move by Cleveland.
But my dyslexic brain has also provided me with an appropriate, although meandering, segue into the current situation: if the Phillies are going to land Cliff Lee, they are going to be giving up a whole lot more than Travis Lee.
I think this is important to point out, because I've read a number of reports that suggest the Phillies view Cliff Lee as a far cheaper alternative than Roy Halladay. And while this may be true from a monetary perspective - Lee is owed just $9 million next season - nothing I have heard from folks around the league suggest that it will be true from a prospects perspective.
I would be very surprised if any deal for Lee does not require the equivalent of a Kyle Drabek. Now, maybe the Indians value someone like Carlos Carrasco (see the previous post for details on his situation) as a near-major-league-ready pitching prospect with huge upside. If that is the case, then perhaps Drabek would not be required. But the Indians had a scout watching Drabek pitch last night, and - at least on paper - Cleveland might have even more leverage than Toronto currently has with Halladay:
1) Cliff Lee's financial price tag is far less than Halladay's. Lee will earn $9 million next year. Halladay will earn nearly $16 million. While Cleveland might be under pressure to get rid of that salary, it would make little sense to do so in exchange for a package of players that does not involve at least one pitcher who is close to major league ready and can slide into the rotation next season. $9 million is not a high price to pay for a top-of-the-rotation starter, and unless Cleveland gets a player who can take his place next year, thereby giving them an actual savings of about $8.5 million on that roster spot, it doesn't make sense to me or other more informed people I have spoken with to trade him.
2) Cliff Lee has won a Cy Young much more recently than Roy Halladay. I'm not comparing the two. Halladay is far and away the cream of the crop. Lee had a great season last year and is having a very good one this year. But he does not have the track record of Halladay. And he is left-handed. The Phillies already have three lefties in the rotation. Hand dominance is not a deal-breaker. But in a perfect word, the Phillies would like a right-handed pitcher. That said, Lee is still a darn good starting pitcher. There is nothing second-rate about him, at least not over the last two years. Remember, we are talking about leverage right now, about the price-tag the Indians can demand in good conscience. And on paper, they have every right to ask for a blockbuster package.
3) Lee does not have a no-trade clause. Part of the reason why the Phillies have been labelled the front-runners for Halladay is that they are one of the few teams he would accept a trade to. Lee has no such limitations, meaning the number of teams who could land him might be greater than the number of teams who have a shot at Halladay. Greater demand equals greater price. Just ask OPEC.
4) One baseball person I talked to yesterday speculated - and, again, this is just speculation - that the Indians could be satisfied with a package that makes up for a drop-off in individual quality with quantity. But quantity does not mean five mid-level prospects equalling one top-level prospect. It means four or five very good prospects - think Carlos Carrasco, Michael Taylor and Lou Marson, among others.
5) A lot of this could depend on Cleveland's desperation to move Lee. Obviously, the more desperate they are, the greater the chance of acquiring him for a lesser package of prospects. There is no question the Indians' asking price should be lower than the Blue Jays. I'm just not convinced it will be as low as a lot of people think.
The Jays holding company released their quarterly earnings report today and the CEO indicated, in not so many words, that they were eager to dump salary or "improve the financial performance" of the team. This is good for the Phils because the BJs don't have a lot of better offers, certainly not from the Yankees or Redsox, who I imagine they would not want to trade with anyway.— PuPuMan
Comment removed.- offer Drabek, Taylor, and Donald for Halladay. That's the best offer the Jays would get, and I think JP would take it. Even though Drabek will most likely be better than Happ, it doesn't make sense to create a hole in your rotation if you're trying to win right now. And Taylor will be ready for the bigs next year -- when our outfield is still full (of all-stars) -- while Brown's natural arrival time will be 2011, right when Werth is leaving for a big payday somewhere else.
- either Halladay or Lee... at least one of them— eaglefandan977
- Trading Happ won't create a hole because Halladay or Lee, would take his spot. You only need 4 starters for the playoffs anyway. So let's hope Pedro can help us the rest of the way as our #5 and maybe taking over the #4 spot in the playoffs.— EL Zorro
- Hey Murph, another good post. Is it me or was Travis Lee the most miserable ballplayer in the history of MLB. He made Dave Hollins look like Chris Rock. I never understood how a guy getting paid millions of dollars to play a kids game could be so miserable.— Mickey0123
This city waits WAY too long between championships to not strike why the iron's hot and go for it now. There's no guarantee that Drabek or Marson or any other prospect is going to be an All-Star or League MVP or even have a World Series supporting cast of players surrounding them when they reach the Bigs. The cast of World Series players are in place RIGHT NOW....let's win championships when we know we have a great chance of doing so!- i'd much rather have Happ starting a potential game 4 than Moyer (who got shelled in the postseason last year) or Pedro (who knows what you're gonna get from him). But since a game 4 start is not even a given in a short series and he'll only pitch once in a long one, this isn't a huge point for me. What is though, is next year. Without Happ, we'd have 2 huge question marks at the back of our rotation. And as for the skepticism, the guy did K 545 in 528 minor league innings, a ratio much better than Drabek's (granted Happ did go to college and was older, which matters). As far as his stuff goes, if you read the scouting report on Cliff Lee (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/baseball/mlb/11/13/scoutingreport.lee/), you could substitute Happ's name in there and no one would bat an eye. He'll at least be a solid #3 and a darn good #4.
- We can kiss Halladay good bye. reports in Boston are that they have added Buckholz to there package and there about to make a deal. Way to go Ruben— JIMMY D
- We can kiss Halladay good bye. reports in Boston are that they have added Buckholz to there package and there about to make a deal. Way to go Ruben— JIMMY D
- Haren? Why not just go get Josh Beckett?— B in DC
- I'm so glad Reuben "retained our prospects for the future" while Epstein and Boston went out to win now. What a freaking joke. Murph, you might as well start writing your story welcoming Washburn or Garland to town. This is a complete waste of 1 of the 2 remaining years for our core players.— J.H.S.
- Add to the package Toronto wants and send it to Clv for Lee & Martinez. Include Happ/Drabek/Brown/Donal & Carrasco and get Martinez to bat behind Howard and Lee to be your #2. Get er dun!— Wheelermustgo
- Reflections on forgetfullness: Swiss, Limberger, Muenster, American, Muzzarella, Wid....its all cheese to me, Murph. Is your favorite oldie: "Who put the overalls in Mrs Murphy's chowder ?" Last played at your grampa's wedding reception by Spike Jones (or was it Jim Jones, Ron Jones, Spike Lee, Lee Westwood, David West, Western Egg, Egg Harbor, Harbor Lights, Miller lite, Miller Barber, Sal the Barber,,,,I cant stop .— mick314
- Who the heck is Erik Lidstrom? Was he a viking?— mebphila
