Some perspective on Cliff Lee
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Some perspective on Cliff Lee
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
It is funny how our brains work. As a sports writer, a large chunk of my job involves typing names and typing them correctly, often in a short frame of time. A lot of us have certain names that give us trouble. Earlier this season, while filing a story involving Matt Lindstrom, the Marlins closer, I accidentally typed the name Nik Lidstrom, the hockey player (and, coincidentally, as I tried to write Nik Lidstrom earlier today on this blog, I typed Erik Lidstrom). During spring training, when writing about John Mayberry, the Phillies outfielder, I would often catch myself typing Jermane Mayberry, the former Eagles offensive lineman. And just now, while writing a headline for a blog post about Cliff Lee, the Indians ace, I found myself typing a headline about Travis Lee, the former Phillies first baseman.
Lee, the Phillies first baseman, was involved in the deal that sent Curt Schilling to Arizona in exchange for a less-than-blockbuster package of players. Now, we are talking about another Lee, in the opposite circumstance, potentially headed to Philadelphia in a cost-cutting move by Cleveland.
But my dyslexic brain has also provided me with an appropriate, although meandering, segue into the current situation: if the Phillies are going to land Cliff Lee, they are going to be giving up a whole lot more than Travis Lee.
I think this is important to point out, because I've read a number of reports that suggest the Phillies view Cliff Lee as a far cheaper alternative than Roy Halladay. And while this may be true from a monetary perspective - Lee is owed just $9 million next season - nothing I have heard from folks around the league suggest that it will be true from a prospects perspective.
I would be very surprised if any deal for Lee does not require the equivalent of a Kyle Drabek. Now, maybe the Indians value someone like Carlos Carrasco (see the previous post for details on his situation) as a near-major-league-ready pitching prospect with huge upside. If that is the case, then perhaps Drabek would not be required. But the Indians had a scout watching Drabek pitch last night, and - at least on paper - Cleveland might have even more leverage than Toronto currently has with Halladay:
1) Cliff Lee's financial price tag is far less than Halladay's. Lee will earn $9 million next year. Halladay will earn nearly $16 million. While Cleveland might be under pressure to get rid of that salary, it would make little sense to do so in exchange for a package of players that does not involve at least one pitcher who is close to major league ready and can slide into the rotation next season. $9 million is not a high price to pay for a top-of-the-rotation starter, and unless Cleveland gets a player who can take his place next year, thereby giving them an actual savings of about $8.5 million on that roster spot, it doesn't make sense to me or other more informed people I have spoken with to trade him.
2) Cliff Lee has won a Cy Young much more recently than Roy Halladay. I'm not comparing the two. Halladay is far and away the cream of the crop. Lee had a great season last year and is having a very good one this year. But he does not have the track record of Halladay. And he is left-handed. The Phillies already have three lefties in the rotation. Hand dominance is not a deal-breaker. But in a perfect word, the Phillies would like a right-handed pitcher. That said, Lee is still a darn good starting pitcher. There is nothing second-rate about him, at least not over the last two years. Remember, we are talking about leverage right now, about the price-tag the Indians can demand in good conscience. And on paper, they have every right to ask for a blockbuster package.
3) Lee does not have a no-trade clause. Part of the reason why the Phillies have been labelled the front-runners for Halladay is that they are one of the few teams he would accept a trade to. Lee has no such limitations, meaning the number of teams who could land him might be greater than the number of teams who have a shot at Halladay. Greater demand equals greater price. Just ask OPEC.
4) One baseball person I talked to yesterday speculated - and, again, this is just speculation - that the Indians could be satisfied with a package that makes up for a drop-off in individual quality with quantity. But quantity does not mean five mid-level prospects equalling one top-level prospect. It means four or five very good prospects - think Carlos Carrasco, Michael Taylor and Lou Marson, among others.
5) A lot of this could depend on Cleveland's desperation to move Lee. Obviously, the more desperate they are, the greater the chance of acquiring him for a lesser package of prospects. There is no question the Indians' asking price should be lower than the Blue Jays. I'm just not convinced it will be as low as a lot of people think.
JIMMY D - Where did you read that Boston and Toronto are "about to make a deal"? The Yahoo article, (which seems pretty credible), said nothing of the sort, and there's nothing like that on the Globe either. Just another offer for Riccardi to play against other teams for the rest fo the week.— B in DC
I quote jman: "Murphy, Carrasco and Marson are mid-level prospects..." Has anybody proposed trading Murphy to the Toronto Star as part of a Halladay package? Just a thought...- I read that Boston offered the Blue Jays Buchholz and two prospects, neither as good as ours. I don't believe they are in the top 50 in BA rankings. I don't see Ricciardi dealing Halladay to the Sox. That would cause a revolt in Toronto.— EL Zorro
Get them both...wholesale the farm system and have an Atlanta Braves 1990's starting rotation. Fill in the gaps with younger cheaper players. We shouldn't need to score 6 runs a game with that staff.
I think you should package murph, kapadia and les bowen for some oreos and a gallon of whole milk— JakeTheSnake- Here it the link: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ys-tradebuzz072809&prov=yhoo&type=lgns— EL Zorro
- Phillies don't need another lefthander. Get Halladay, the best pitcher in baseball who's been pitching in the best division in baseball. No brainer.— psu05
- Heck, include Happ, and trade away whatever it takes to get both Halladay and Lee. Halladay, Hamels, Lee, Blanton....I like that!!— chower
- Murph has way too much upside to trade to the Toronto star..If u want to add Martino and Conlin (mid level prospect and over the hill geezer) to the package then thats ok. Happ, Taylor, Donald, Martino, Bill Conlin, and we throw in Steve Jeltz to seal the deal. Thats called a dynamic trade package!— philsfan in the atx
- Agree with donnellc111, BringBackBowa is the landslide winner of post of the day. I re-read it to be sure and yes, for the 9th time, I am still laughing. Onto the topic, sure Lee is not Halladay but here are the stats over the past six seasons: Lee is 80-44 in 167 starts, 4.05 ERA, 294BB, 776Ks in 1054 2/3 IP Halladay is 83-38 in 156 starts, 3.15 ERA, 198BB, 803K in 1107 IP Lee is only a year younger but that is irrelevant because this is a 15 month deal with the focus on hopefully 10-12 post season starts over that time period.— NMPartners
- I'm not wild about 4 lefty starters either. When you're looking at facing guys like Pujols, Holiday, Soriano, Lee, Ramirez, etc. in the playoffs, you'd like to have a couple of righties to throw at them instead of a steady diet of lefty pitchers.— JimG
- i keep wanting to type ray liotta instead of murph— soliteryman
As we're leading the division by 15 games in September, I hope we see all these prospects (those who are left, anyway) called up. Drabek and Carrasco, of course, but I want to see Taylor and Brown. If the window for the Phils is as close to closing as Halladay fans would have us believe, I'd like to see our outfield of the next decade.- NMPartners ... Why six years' worth of comparsion? How about four years: Halladay 63-26, 3.11 ERA, 24 complete games; Lee 48-31, 3.77 ERA, 9 complete games. Lee is very good. Halladay is great.— GoPhilsGo
- Lets get both....... Lee, a lefty, will replace Happ who goes to TBJ along with Taylor, Drebek and Donald. Send Carrasco and Marson to the Indians. Keep Brown for 2011 when Worth leaves. Send KK to the Nats for a right handed bat. Hope Myers and Pedro can sure up the bullpen.— joeolive
