Second Acts: Why tonight is so big for Kyle Kendrick
According to the little counter on the front page of the Phillies web site, there are 17 days, six hours and 29 minutes to Opening Day. Which means there are roughly 129 days, six hours and 29 minutes until the 2010 trading deadline, and 194 days, six hours and 29 minutes until the end of the 2010 regular season, and 320 days, six hours and 29 minutes until pitchers and catchers again report to Clearwater. Actually, those figures are a little bit off, because it took me a few minutes to figure all of that out. Point is, time keeps on slippin', slippin', slippin' into the future, and for a guy like Kyle Kendrick, the future is now -- more specifically, tonight against the Baltimore Orioles in the Phillies' first game back from their lone day off of the spring. How did I spend my day off? I did some laundry, watched Brad Lidge pitch in a minor league game, watched the best first day of the NCAA tournament in quite some time, then listened to a slightly-inebriated Gators fan explain to me why Tim Tebow will thrive as an NFL quarterback. The conversation about Tebow brought a particularly entertaining end to my day, almost as entertaining as watching Villanova almost lose to a 15th-seeded team from a school that sounds more like a Big Tobacco Company than a place of higher education. In normal society, the Tebow argument might be debunked by highlighting the lack of success enjoyed by spread/spread option quarterbacks in the NFL -- Alex Smith, Ryan Leaf, Vince Young anybody? -- or the fact that Tebow's throwing motion looks like it pre-dates the advent of the forward pass. But Florida fans possess a remarkable ability to avoid any sense of logic when it comes to their Gators. And, considering most of their backgrounds, it makes sense. After all, when you live in a state that is home to seven of the country's worst-performing metropolitan economies AND the world's largest shuffleboard courts, a six-pack of Bud and an ignorance of reality are essential tools for survival. In a way, Kendrick shares some commonalities with Tebow, and not just because he was offered a scholarship to play in a spread offense at Washington State. Kendrick, like Tebow, enjoyed early success running an unconventional offense, throwing sinker after sinker after sinker during a rookie campaign in which he went 10-4 with a 3.87 ERA in 20 starts. But, like Tebow, Kendrick's skill set wasn't suited to extended success in the professional game, so he went down to the minors, re-invented himself, developed a change-up and a cutter that looked sharp late last season and even looks even better this spring, and now has reached a point where he has a real opportunity to establish himself as a big leaguer for years to come. Of course, this is where Kendrick's path diverges with Tebow's, because there are no minor leagues in football, and you have a window of about three years to prove yourself, and if you do not, then you are back in Gainesville selling insurance and speaking at the Touchdown Club. Or appearing on The Bachelor. Professional baseball features a larger window of opportunity. Thanks to its extensive, and cheap, development system, the sport doesn't expect you to show up on the scene all growed up. Kendrick has taken advantage of this, but he has plenty of work left to do, and it begins tonight against the Orioles. Why is tonight so big? Because tonight, against a team he faced just five days ago, Kendrick is expected to throw 65-75 pitches, which means he will be in the game longer than two or three innings, which means hitters will get to face him more than one time. In three Grapefruit League starts, Kendrick has yet to make two full trips through a line-up. In fact, only six batters have faced him more than once this spring. Why does that matter? Check out Kendrick's splits from his rough 2008 season, based on the number of times an opponent saw him in a game: 1st Plate Appearance: 282 PA, .266/.338/.387, .725 OPS, 34 RS, 7 HR 2nd Plate Appearance: 249 PA, .289/.366/.486, .852 OPS, 27 RS, 7 HR 3rd+ Plate Appearance: 191 PA, .376/.426/.618, 1.045 OPS, 30 RS, 9 HR His first time through the line-up, Kendrick allowed a HR every 35.4 at-bats. After his second time through the line-up, he allowed a HR every 12.3 at-bats. Point is, as good as Kendrick's performance has been this spring -- he has allowed four hits and no walks in nine scoreless innings -- his work is only just beginning. As for Tebow, I do not mean to disparage the man. In fact, I like him a lot. If I were an NFL GM, and I wanted to be sure that my quarterback did not end up bankrolling a dog-fighting ring or (allegedly) luring unsuspecting women into bathrooms, he'd be my first-round draft pick. But if I were an NFL GM, and I wanted to win, and I couldn't get Sam Bradford, I'd take Tim Hiller before Tebow. Just remember: Danny Wuerffel was a helluva good guy too.
Second Acts: Why tonight is so big for Kyle Kendrick
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
According to the little counter on the front page of the Phillies web site, there are 17 days, six hours and 29 minutes to Opening Day. Which means there are roughly 129 days, six hours and 29 minutes until the 2010 trading deadline, and 194 days, six hours and 29 minutes until the end of the 2010 regular season, and 320 days, six hours and 29 minutes until pitchers and catchers again report to Clearwater.
Actually, those figures are a little bit off, because it took me a few minutes to figure all of that out. Point is, time keeps on slippin', slippin', slippin' into the future, and for a guy like Kyle Kendrick, the future is now -- more specifically, tonight against the Baltimore Orioles in the Phillies' first game back from their lone day off of the spring.
How did I spend my day off? I did some laundry, watched Brad Lidge pitch in a minor league game, watched the best first day of the NCAA tournament in quite some time, then listened to a slightly-inebriated Gators fan explain to me why Tim Tebow will thrive as an NFL quarterback. The conversation about Tebow brought a particularly entertaining end to my day, almost as entertaining as watching Villanova almost lose to a 15th-seeded team from a school that sounds more like a Big Tobacco Company than a place of higher education. In normal society, the Tebow argument might be debunked by highlighting the lack of success enjoyed by spread/spread option quarterbacks in the NFL -- Alex Smith, Ryan Leaf, Vince Young anybody? -- or the fact that Tebow's throwing motion looks like it pre-dates the advent of the forward pass. But Florida fans possess a remarkable ability to avoid any sense of logic when it comes to their Gators. And, considering most of their backgrounds, it makes sense. After all, when you live in a state that is home to seven of the country's worst-performing metropolitan economies AND the world's largest shuffleboard courts, a six-pack of Bud and an ignorance of reality are essential tools for survival.
In a way, Kendrick shares some commonalities with Tebow, and not just because he was offered a scholarship to play in a spread offense at Washington State. Kendrick, like Tebow, enjoyed early success running an unconventional offense, throwing sinker after sinker after sinker during a rookie campaign in which he went 10-4 with a 3.87 ERA in 20 starts. But, like Tebow, Kendrick's skill set wasn't suited to extended success in the professional game, so he went down to the minors, re-invented himself, developed a change-up and a cutter that looked sharp late last season and even looks even better this spring, and now has reached a point where he has a real opportunity to establish himself as a big leaguer for years to come. Of course, this is where Kendrick's path diverges with Tebow's, because there are no minor leagues in football, and you have a window of about three years to prove yourself, and if you do not, then you are back in Gainesville selling insurance and speaking at the Touchdown Club.
Or appearing on The Bachelor.
Professional baseball features a larger window of opportunity. Thanks to its extensive, and cheap, development system, the sport doesn't expect you to show up on the scene all growed up. Kendrick has taken advantage of this, but he has plenty of work left to do, and it begins tonight against the Orioles.
Why is tonight so big?
Because tonight, against a team he faced just five days ago, Kendrick is expected to throw 65-75 pitches, which means he will be in the game longer than two or three innings, which means hitters will get to face him more than one time.
In three Grapefruit League starts, Kendrick has yet to make two full trips through a line-up. In fact, only six batters have faced him more than once this spring.
Why does that matter?
Check out Kendrick's splits from his rough 2008 season, based on the number of times an opponent saw him in a game:
1st Plate Appearance: 282 PA, .266/.338/.387, .725 OPS, 34 RS, 7 HR
2nd Plate Appearance: 249 PA, .289/.366/.486, .852 OPS, 27 RS, 7 HR
3rd+ Plate Appearance: 191 PA, .376/.426/.618, 1.045 OPS, 30 RS, 9 HR
His first time through the line-up, Kendrick allowed a HR every 35.4 at-bats. After his second time through the line-up, he allowed a HR every 12.3 at-bats.
Point is, as good as Kendrick's performance has been this spring -- he has allowed four hits and no walks in nine scoreless innings -- his work is only just beginning.
As for Tebow, I do not mean to disparage the man. In fact, I like him a lot. If I were an NFL GM, and I wanted to be sure that my quarterback did not end up bankrolling a dog-fighting ring or (allegedly) luring unsuspecting women into bathrooms, he'd be my first-round draft pick. But if I were an NFL GM, and I wanted to win, and I couldn't get Sam Bradford, I'd take Tim Hiller before Tebow.
Just remember: Danny Wuerffel was a helluva good guy too.
Sounds like someone got dumped by a Gatorette. It would be interesting to hear what the Sun News thinks of you Dave. Do a little homework... University of Florida is a top rated school (top 20 for every discipline in business in the country as well as a host of other disciplines; Newsweek rates it the best college value in the country). Your LaSalle credentials would not have gotten you in.— PhilaSota
Comment removed.- Very literate posts here. Where are the regular negadelphia wags? The quality of Kendrick's non-sinker aresenal and his willingness to throw what Chooch calls will tell the tale. I predict he'll be the fifth starter in short order, but not out of the gate.— steelydad
- thank you @ToughLove. In addition to his sense of humor, maybe Philadelphiafreedom81's tobacco knowledge is pretty weak if he didn't get the Philip Morris reference.— esesjay
- Not too many haters out today...they must be at the Tongue Sharpener Store. VERY good writing today Dave, and the stat analysis is interesting. I plan on savoring each and every game in what SHOULD be an epic season......with an eye out for a good spot to stand during the parade in November.— TBear
- descentry— xrajux
- The ad hominem barrage directed at Florida and Tebow was neither illustrative nor entertaining. If you're going to rip somebody to make a point about somebody else, please do make it enjoyable to read and relevant. Otherwise, it just makes you sound like a brat.— LazarWolf
- Not much information about Kendrick, or the pitching staff, after getting thru the fluff...— Cameiros
- Philadelphiafreedom81 ... I think Murph knows Robert Morris. I'm more worried about your ability to recognize humor ...— ToughLove
- The second time through the line up is Kyles problem but how about applying the same to Hamels. What is his second time through numbers. Bet they are not much better when it comes to game changing hits than Kyles.— Wally 24
- Comment removed.
- The pictures of the shuffleboard court and the Bachelor I get. Why the picture of Sisyphus?— GoPhilsGo
- those stats are misleading...heretofore Kendrick has had only one 'out' pitch a fastball...now with a effective change-up and more importantly a cutter...and is learning from a master cutter himself Doc H...Moyer is over the hill I don't care if he is owed 8 million...if KK gets the job done tonight he has earned a shot!— PHILLYMARK
- Careful Murph, you're here a couple more weeks. Too many FHP troopers and county sheriff's deputies are U of F grads. You don't want to go 'missing' down in the Glades (chomp, gulp). You might want to try to chump Gelp into swapping ID's w/ you...
Moyer took the money the Phillies offered. They should have only offered one year, I agree. Kendrick could be the answer of he has more thsan one effective pith now. He is far from the only pitcher who becomes more hittable the third time around. I think Tebow might be able to play QB in the NFL. If throwing a pretty pass was a requirement for NFL success, Jeff George would be the all-time greatest QB, and there would have been no way for Billy Kilmer or Joe Kapp to be so successful. I am really tired of all the whining about LEE. If Cliff had been willing, like the Yankee starters were, to go on short rest, The Phillies may have beaten the Yankees in seven. But he would not. When he and his agent look to break the bank, and that is their intention, I will be interested in how much more he gets paid than Halladay. Amaro is doing a great job. He should have a lot more support from the Philly faithful.- MURPH, Watch the ignorance reference. Not all of us living in Florida are gators. I'm a Gator Hater, THE PHLORIDA PHILLIE PHANATIC, hate Bud, and love cheesesteaks (as opposed to "steak and cheese"). Being born and raised in the Lehigh Valley area helped, even though I've been down here since 1972. If I ever get to meet you, I'll buy you a Coors Light, a favorite of Harry the K and Paul Hagen.— SEEK313
- DMurph: I reported yesterday Charlie and the Phanatic will be riding the float together in the WS parade in Nov pulled by the newest Phillies, the Budweiser Clydesdales ... Can you have Charlie or Ruben sitting next to you during this mornings' chat session to comment?.— Bluster_Gammenthal
- So Kendrick will end up being the fifth starter and Moyer will be the guy who cost us Lee because he would not retire. Thanks Jamie!
- Come on we all know this article was only written so that he could post a picture of the bachelor..— lefty1117
- I wonder what happened to Murph while working at the Sun News.— EL Zorro
- "...watching Villanova almost lose to a 15th-seeded team from a school that sounds more like a Big Tobacco Company than a place of higher education." Murphy, you may know a bit about sports but your Philadelphia history is pretty weak if you don't know who Robert Morris is. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Morris_(financier)— Philadelphiafreedom81
- I hope 'all growed up' was intentional. If it was, kudos to you, sir.— DCExpat
- As a Floridian for many years, yer killin' me (the truth hurts and ye spaketh it with darts :-) ... as a Phillies fan, you're spot on. This next three months will tell the tale on Kendricks.— macdofcb
- OUCH!! MAN, that was killer.— MichaelZoe
- Nice piece Murph, now you have to go after TJ Simmers and LA fans.— EarlKeese
- Sounds like the Florida humidity is starting to get to our boy...— sla6yer
- a slightly-inebriated Gators fan? Isn't that like the white buffalo?— Grazman
- Nice post, Murph - and love that Member's Only Jacket look you got going on— horhey
- Florida just got served!
- "...when you live in a state that is home to seven of the country's worst-performing metropolitan economies AND the world's largest shuffleboard courts, a six-pack of Bud and an ignorance of reality are essential tools for survival." Ouch!— budcnj
- Murph, please observe the speed limit during the balance of your stay in the "Sunshine State.' Some of those smokies know how to read and if you are linked to your latest lament, you are looking at a long stretch.— mick314
- David: very nice piece of writing and analysis.— ThicketDan
