Second-guessing the second-guessing of alleged second-guessing: Part I
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Second-guessing the second-guessing of alleged second-guessing: Part I
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
In addition to an observer, recorder, and analyzer of history and the human condition, a writer is also a therapeutic device, the disembodied equivalent of dry wall. Rather than punching a hole through the actual source of one's discontent, an individual can punch a hole through the words of the person who chronicles it, thus limiting the chance of physical harm or public shame or prison time. I enjoy the role, but I also like to make sure that the displaced aggression is grounded in some form of reality. For instance, the Phillies' rough start has produced a rash of allegations from emailers and commenters to this blog that writers like myself are guilty of second-guessing, that we spent all offseason and spring training singing glorious psalms of inevitable success for this team and are now little more than bandwagon deserters. It is a serious charge, but it is one that I dispute. So I spent part of a recent morning reading back through the archives of the newspaper and the blog and highlighted some pertinent excerpts. We'll take a periodic look at these excerpts, which I have grouped together in categories.
Next week, we'll look at our coverage of Chase Utley's injury and our analysis of the offseason moves that were made. Today, we'll start with our analysis of the moves the Phillies needed to make in what was then the upcoming offseason, culled from blog posts and Daily News stories that ran from October to early November:
ON THE FRONT OFFICE'S PAST MOVES: "When you really break it down, a front office's job is to predict the future better than other front offices. Certainly, it is to predict the future better than the general public. Nobody is saying that Amaro and his fellow executives have failed. Remember, the Phillies are coming of a 102-win season. If they lose to the Braves in the final series of the regular season and eliminate the Cardinals from the playoffs, there is a good chance they are still playing. For the second straight year, they ran into the one team that was built to beat them in the postseason. This is not revisionist history. I said it last summer about the Giants, and I said it this summer about the Cardinals. At the time, neither team was a lock for the playoffs. Both of them snuck in. And, as fate would have it, both ended up playing the Phillies. At the same time, the Phillies learned a tough lesson. When you put the majority of your chip stack on black, and the wheel lands on red, you have a problem. Black is postseason success. Black is pitching. The Phillies' traded for Roy Oswalt and signed Cliff Lee. They did not add a corner outfielder like Lance Berkman, or reserves like Nick Punto or Ryan Theriot or Rafael Furcal. Oswalt battled injuries, saw his strikeout rate dip, and allowed five runs while taking the loss in Game 4. Lee dominated during the regular season, then allowed five runs and took the loss in Game 2."
PERSONNEL, NOT APPROACH, IS THE PROBLEM: "Maybe Amaro thinks that the Phillies need to stop going to the plate looking for a pitch they can drive, and instead look for a pitch they can put into play to get on base. Maybe if they had that mentality, Chase Utley and Raul Ibanez would have hit singles instead of flying out in front of the wall in Game 5. On the other hand, maybe the players on the roster are who they are. Maybe the roster was constructed with hitters who have spent their entire careers looking for pitches they can drive. In 2002, former big league manager Chuck Tanner told Baseball Digest, "If a guy is a .250 hitter, he's going to hit .250. It's as simple as that."
ON POTENTIAL ROAD BUMPS: "One of these years, the Braves are going to get it all together and mount a serious challenge for NL East supremacy. As long as Lee, Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels remain healthy, this team should continue to win a lot of games, regardless of the offense. But one serious pitching injury -- or one serious opponent in the playoffs -- could make this year's NLDS disappointment seem mild. The Phillies are no longer a team that can rely on their ability to crush fastballs and poorly executed offspeed pitches, because they are not crushing those fastballs and poorly executed offspeed pitches like they did in their prime. Witness Utley and Ibanez flying out to the wall on Friday night. Who knows where those balls land a few years ago? This is not a team in need of an implosion, but it is a team that has not changed its offensive identity nearly as fast as its former identity has changed. They need a hitter or two who can reach base, who can work a count, and they need depth at all positions."
ON ADDING OFFENSIVE DEPTH: "The success of the rotation overshadowed a lot of depth problems, not only in the bullpen, but on the bench. The Phillies simply do not have the young home-grown talent that the Cardinals were able to use to off-set their veteran core. The lack of depth was on display throughout the stretch run in playoffs. The Phillies simply did not have anybody who could play in place of Polanco. Their top left-handed option off the bench was Ross Gload, whose power was sapped by a hip injury. We haven't even mentioned Chase Utley's knee problem. He played all season, but not at the elite level that the Phillies need. This line-up has reached an age where injuries need to be factored into roster construction. Expecting guys like Polanco and Utley and Rollins to make it through a whole season unscathed borders on fantasy."
ON LEFT FIELD AS OFFSEASON PRIORITY: "Regardless of what the Phillies say publicly, they are going to bring in an outfielder who can give them some depth/insurance behind John Mayberry Jr. Mayberry played great last season, but nobody knows if he can do it on an every day basis. The smart money is on a left-handed bat. I've floated the name David DeJesus because he is one of the few options who brings any sort of offensive and defensive versatility to the table, and because he is just one year removed from hitting .300 and doing a lot of nice things for the Royals. He had a career-worst year last season in Oakland, but let's face it: a lot of players have career-worst years in Oakland. Johnny Damon is another guy who has some upside, but he is also far enough away from his peak years that any investment is fraught with risk. The rumor mill has mentioned the Phillies in the same sentence with Twins lefty Jason Kubel on several occasions. Such a signing would not surprise me, although it would seem to run counter to the Phillies' desire to change the dynamic of their lineup. . .Josh Willingham is one of the better offensive outfielders available, but there have never been any indications that the Phillies view him as a likely fit. One wild card to watch is Carlos Beltran. If the veteran outfielder was prioritizing a shot to win a ring and was willing to accept a one or two-year deal, the Phillies might find themselves tempted to make a run at him. He would drastically upgrade the offense, provided he remained healthy."
ON THE SET-UP MEN: "In a perfect world, Triple-A relievers Justin De Fratus and Phillippe Aumont are ready to make instant impacts and get the call to the majors at some point in 2012 and Joe Savery or Jacob Diekman establishes himself as a reliable left-handed option. But those are all huge question marks. Entering the season without a veteran swing-and-miss pitcher to complement (the closer) and Bastardo will constitute a significant risk if the Phillies hope to rein in their starters. Assuming the Phillies do not have unlimited payroll flexibility, the $1.25 million they are paying to Thome is $1.25 million they cannot pay to somebody else. And if they carry six bench players, it leaves them with three open spots behind (the closer), Bastardo and a long man, and decreases Manuel's ability to mix-and-match his way through the late innings."
ON SIGNING A CLOSER: "Cost-effectiveness is the key here. After all, Madson blew just one save this year and the Phillies still lost in the first round of the playoffs. They went to Game 6 of the World Series when Brad Lidge had one of the worst years ever out of a closer. Sure, it's an important position. But not important enough that a team should sacrifice the ability to upgrade in another area."
ON COMPENSATING FOR LOSING RYAN HOWARD: "What if Howard's recovery does stretch into next season? If the Phillies had any doubt about devoting some serious consideration toward left field, it would likely be eliminated. The team would have to think about playing John Mayberry Jr. at first. They obviously aren't going to be players for Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols. Veterans like Michael Cuddyer and Wilson Betemit leave much to be desired on the defensive end, but they can play first base and outfield along with third base. . .Maybe Howard is back to full strength by the start of next season, or shortly thereafter. But his power and on base numbers and even his RBI total have dropped over the last three seasons. Same goes for Chase Utley at second base. Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence are the only two regulars who are undoubtedly in the prime of their careers. If Jimmy Rollins leaves via free agency, they will already head into next season weaker at one position (Jose Reyes is not an option and Rollins is clearly the second-best available offensive shortstop). If Howard's injury is not a big factor, Mayberry is the best option in left. But he has never played on a regular basis. And heading into a season with him and Domonic Brown as the top two options in left would require a huge leap of faith. Which is why the Phillies should seriously consider free agency, assuming Amaro can't pull another big trade out of his hat. Nick Swisher could be a free agent if the Yankees decline his option. That isn't a sure thing, but he's an OBP guy who can work a count, something that was noticably missing from the Phillies' line-up during the postseason. Josh Willingham is another player in that mold. Defense is the big issue there, but he isn't replacing a Gold Glove in Ibanez. I wouldn't rule out Ibanez returning at a drastically lower salary and without any guarantee of regular playing time. But his is the one position that can clearly be upgraded through free agency. Remember when the Cardinals took a chance on Lance Berkman?"
I don't think this is called for. Readers remember what was read and it doesn't make sense to be all defensive, but if you are going to dreg up the past, how about reprinting some of those columns where you mocked the idea that the Nationals rotation and/or roster might be as talented as the Phillies? To your credit, you write alot of stuff, but you can't have it both ways by reposting the parts that make you look prescient and leaving out the parts that don't.— jtj10- You, for one, clearly need a refresher. Show me where in the post I mocked the Nationals. In fact, I don't seen an ounce of opinion in there. Just a look at what the numbers say about what Davey Johnson said. Thanks for the suggestion, though. Here's the link: http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies/Fact-checking-Davey-Johnson.html— dmurph003
- David Murphy the heaviest of the lightweights. Your arrogance is surpassed only by your conceit. Thank goodness Phils fans are blessed with a sports scribe lik you that can prognosticate who the Phils should fear most year after year. Master of the obvious, it did not take a genius to figure out the the Cards last year (with their late season heroics) nor the San Fran team a couple years back (with their dynamite pitching staff)were to be formidable obstacles for the Fightins. If only management would listen to you Murph, then the Phils would win this thing every year. You could be like their secret weapon. You could become the Joe Banner of Phillies baseball. — rockinrob
Cody Ross. Cody Ross sees the ball extremely well at CBP. Also at Turner Field and Nationals Park. As far as second guesses go, he's #1 on my list. They committed to Mayberry in LF so they didn't go after him this offseason. They should have.— Sam Crow- David - I remember reading this material then and thinking that the Phils would surely see the same things and react - after all, they had done the right things before, correct? Whenever they needed a player, Ruben got him. How in the world did they muck this up so badly? Please disregard all the negativity and keep up the great analyses - this is one lifelong Phillies' fan who appreciates all you do!— dwp66
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- Only the fans who say "hey, that's baseball, this team is talented and they'll come around". They need something beyond therapy. — fmMD
- Anyone have the rotation for the McFadden's girls ? The one under the big screen showing the NJ-LA Cup game on Wed. nite was absolutely a perfect ten.— UnaBlogger
- I think that you do a fine job, but this is a very difficult time for fans. I have been a Phillies fan for over 50 years, and watched or listed to over 90% of all their games, and because they have been so good for so long, I am having a problem now watching their games.— fish1463
- so why not say just straight out that Amaro was clearly wrong on every aspect of how he addressed Phils needs ths past off-season— warbiscuit
- everyone is entitled to their own opnion but not their own set of facts The fact is Charlie Manuel is a horrible manager.— gates2012
- I'm not sure why Murphy did this but his points were/are valid. I would make two points in response: 1. I disagree that signing Papelbon was a mistake that's truly hurting us. We're lucky that we didn't sign Madson, obviously, so let's say we sign a closer for $4 million less per year than Papelbon. Who would we have landed for that kind of coin? Ryan Sweeney? And, would the fictional closer be perfect in save opportunities, as Papelbon is? Unlikely. 2. A lot of the comment-ers at this site make and have made accurate assessments as well -- including warbiscuit. I, for one, was skeptical about Mayberry, citing years of minor league mediocrity. I also was not on the Galvis bandwagon, hitting-wise. I'm still not. Etc. And it's not just the biscuit man and me.— eman
- Utley may never play a game again. Howard may not play this year. This was a definite possibility before the season began. So, the major mistake made was not ensuring that left field was filled with a power hitter. Either resign Ibanez or trade for someone. Taking a chance on Mayberry was an incompetent decision. Everybody makes mistakes, so I'll give Amaro a second chance on this one. He's got to make a major trade to get some pop in left - even if that means moving Victorino.— joberzut
- BINGO!
That's the big frustration this year. Everybody knew Utley was going to have problems with those knees. Everybody.
And of course you don't blow out an Achilles Tendon and then play MLB 7 months later. You can't even play it 12 months later.
The Phillies front office based their season on hope and a faith in Jesus. Or something. It wasn't based on facts. So they signed Wiggenton and Nix. That was the hitters they got.
They deserve to go to the bottom, which *SURPRISE* is where they're at.— fmMD - LOL.— EL Zorro
- Ahhh to have a crystal ball. Reality check, the issue with Utley is with Utley, not RAJ. Utley did NOT do what was needed in the offseason to make sure he was ready for the season. He smoked and mirrored us all (including RAJ/Cholly) into thinking he'd be ready for game action by mid March and ready for openning day. It was HE who duped us all. Can't blame RAJ for that. As for Howard, that is a physician's issue. How can a player have a chronic surgical infection four months after the fact? Thats insane by any medical standard, not to mention for a player with a $25 million buy in. Who knew Rollins would bat even lower than thought, and Pense/Victorino would try to carry the team on their shoulders, only to hit fly balls to opposing outfielders. Did RAJ know Halladay would be injured along with just about everyone on the roster (Galvis is out too...).— drhoffman
- Dr Hoffman, your excuses for the front office don't hold water.
I knew along with half the Philly fan base that Howard and Utley would have issues getting on the field this year. That was common sense.
Why would you give the Amaro and the front office a pass on this? It makes no sense.— fmMD - In the case of Ryan Howard, it is often the case with Achilles tendon repair that the skin in the area of the procedure remains open, and takes time to heal, because of the nature of the skin in a very high stress area. When Howard began spring training activity, that opened the wound up again, and that's where the infection can get in there. Read the medical literature on it. — laser5
- Seriously... are you paid by the word like Charles Dickens? You ramble on endlessly all the frickin time. CUT TO THE CHASE!— bingbangbong
- drhoffman, you have to be kidding. Utley has missed a ton of games the last few years, has chronic injury that only gets worse, and is old for a middle infielder. Of course if you ask him, he thinks he'll be back,but management needs to deal with reality. Similar with Howard. The Phillies were criticized for extending Howard precisely because similar players couldn't stay healthy into their 30s. When he went down last October, I figured he's probably done for good. As Murphy pointed out in an earlier post, Rollins, Pence, and Victorino are more or less playing at the same level they have the last 3 years. 50% of starting pitchers go on the DL on average, Halladay is aging and Manuel has used him hard the last two years. I would have been surprised if he didn't miss significant time this year or next. Throw in the fact that they only have fielded three position players younger than 31 this year-- of course old guys are going to get hurt. You act as these easily foreseeable things are some unbelievable stroke of bad luck. I'd expect Victorino, Ruiz, and Rollins to miss significant time between now and September. They aren't durable players and they are aging.— jtj06
- Here's the bottom line; if you spout enough garbage, you will always have articles to say "see, I'm right; I know all".
It is disingenious at best!— JBinPA - Murph, interesting stuff and shows your sense of accountability. Bravo— tommazza
- Papelbom a big plus addition. Big Madson fan but who knows whats going to develop with Boras as agent. Pierre a plus On base a good deal, can hit good pitchers, catches what he should. No power, poor arm an on base plus I can live with the minus parts. Qualls has been very poor. He has had a career which says he should be doing better. Qualls career is a hit per inning not many walks or homers given. In 2010 he pitched as poorly as he's done this year. I dont think you can put him in a close game right now. Wiggington has been decent offensively. Ty is a journeyman who can park one at times. Ty has had trouble at 3rd and were used to seeing Polanco gobble up everything. Galvis now with back fracture and Polanco with wrist problem it never ends. The Phills have played poorly and deserve to be in last. There is still 100 games to be played. Problem is Braves, Nats, Marlins all show improvement.... Many of the negative comments can be other teams fans unhappy with Phills achievements. They may be people who are just negative. They also could be fans unhappy with Phills poor performance.— Don w
- I never want to see Qualls in a Phils uni ever again. Same with Shwimmy.— Seegs
