Roster-ology 1.0: Projecting your 2013 Phillies
Here's our first stab at projecting what the Phillies' Opening Day roster will look like.
Roster-ology 1.0: Projecting your 2013 Phillies
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
It is Day 6 of spring training, when, for the first time, hitters will face pitchers in live batting practice sessions. The exercise sounds a lot cooler on paper than in practice. Many of the hitters will not swing the bat, instead using the session to stand in the box and get acclimated to recognizing and timing pitches. The younger guys tend to be less patient.
Throughout the spring, we'll take a stab at projecting what the 25-man Opening Day roster will look like. What follows is our first attempt.
STARTING LINEUP
- Jimmy Rollins SS (ODDS OF MAKING ROSTER/DL: 100 percent)
- Michael Young 3B (100 percent)
- Chase Utley 2B (100 percent)
- Ryan Howard 1B (100 percent)
- Darin Ruf LF (60 percent)
- Domonic Brown RF (65 percent)
- Erik Kratz C (95 percent)
- Ben Revere CF (100 percent)
STARTING ROTATION
- Cole Hamels LHP (100 percent)
- Roy Halladay RHP (100 percent)
- Cliff Lee LHP (100 percent)
- Kyle Kendrick RHP (100 percent)
- John Lannan LHP (95 percent)
BULLPEN
- Jonathan Papelbon RHP/CL (100 percent)
- Mike Adams RHP/SU (100 percent)
- Antonio Bastardo LHP/SU (98 percent)
- Chad Durbin RHP/MID (100 percent)
- Jeremy Horst LHP/MID (75 percent)
- Justin De Fratus RHP/MID (50 percent)
- Raul Valdes LHP/MID (50 percent)
BENCH
- Laynce Nix OF-1B/LHB (95 percent)
- Kevin Frandsen 3B-2B/RHB (95 percent)
- Humberto Quintero C/RHB (50 percent)
- Freddy Galvis SS-2B-3B/SHB (70 percent)
- John Mayberry Jr. OF-1B/RHB (80 percent)
DISABLED LIST
- Delmon Young - OF/RHB (100 percent)
BREAKDOWN: The Phillies sound as if they expect Delmon Young to begin the season on the disabled list, which takes some drama out of an intense outfield battle. . .Mayberry seems likely to make the team as he is out of options and is one of the few members of the organization who has major league experience in center field, although Laynce Nix has played the position and Rule 5 pick Ender Inciarte will look to make the Phillies make a difficult decision on Mayberry. . .Young starting the season on the DL would leave the last few spots in the bullpen as the tightest roster battle. Mike Stutes, Jake Diekman and Phillippe Aumont would be the last three players off the roster in this scenario.
Comments (50)
- By the way, the only one that is an obvious certainty is your "educated" guess concerning one Delmon Young.
I would consider batting Revere 7th because he can steal a base and be driven in by #8 (who would be Kratz, at least for 25 games). Ruf and Brown could rotate according to whether a lefty or righty was pitching for the opposition. One through four seems a solid top IF Utley and Howard are healthy. When Delmon Young gets healthy, then the weakest outfielder should go and give Young platoon AB with Brown or replace Ruf according to who is hitting. If Brown and Ruf are both producing, then Young can replace Nix or Mayberry on the bench.— gotedge- Revere should lead off. Rollins should bat 7th -- he can also steal a base and be driven in by #8, (that is if he doesn't pop up or hit a weak grounder to one of the infielders.)
- Yes, ghost of… You've nailed this on the percentages thing. 98% on Antonio Bastardo? That makes "sense", doesn't it.
In the first, of course, only players with no trades are certainties, and even they can waive the no trade.
I always like to look at so-called statistics as DM's %s, here as the worst sort of nonsense. A player is either an almost certainty to stay, an almost certainty to go, or nothing but a bad guess. Eight of the players named above, since they are less than 90% and more than 10% are nothing but sheer guesses. Everyone else is a near certainty, according to DM.
GOOD GRIEF! Sportshackery really is the very WORST of Spring training, what with nothing of reality to write and having to fill the lousy column every day.— BEMiller - I agree with you regarding "sportshackery". An article like this looses credibility quickly when it's obvious that the writer is pulling numbers (in this case, percentages) out of thin air. If Philly.com employs a senior editor, he should replace the sports editor post haste. He does a lousy job of editing. It's almost like each writer has carte blanche to write and have published whatever trash they submit for publication.
- That should be "loses" credibility, not "looses". This is what I'm talking about. How many times have the writers caught their own spelling or grammar mistakes?
- Ben Revere CF
Chase Utley 2B
Jimmy Rollins SS
Ryan Howard 1B
Darin Ruf LF
Michael Young 3B
Domonic Brown RF
Erik Kratz C
— MadChemist13 - While I agree with Revere leading off, I would switch Rollins with Young. Your 3 hole hitter is supposed to be your best hitter and Rollins "ain't it". Young (other than Utley) in that line up fits the 3 hole bill much better, not to mention that Young bats right, so you'd have Utley (lefty), Young (righty), and Howard (lefty).
- Thought about that but I do not see Young having enough power to bat toward the core of the lineup. My reasoning for Rollins is that he has some pop and is more of a free swinger. He should get more pitches in the zone batting in front of Howard that should hopefully make up for any lapses in plate discipline. Also, I like having two speed guys (Revere and Rollins) in front of Howard and Ruf to hopefully drive in some extra runs. Finally, looking at the lineup, Rollins is the only proven player without any health concerns and I think he will mentally accept moving to the 3-hole more than 6-7th. — MadChemist13
- I see your point, but Rollins pops up and hits weak grounders too frequently for the 3 hole. Yes, he's got some "pop" and speed and he's a switch hitter, but he's DEFINITELY not the best hitter on the team and that is historically who you put in the 3 hole.
- like your lineup. good things are happening if that is the phils lineup. ruf seeing fastball and getting some protection from Young. judging jimmy's year last year, he could be tough in the three hole if he keeps it up. will be interesting to see what happens with delmon if the others hit.
- You may like his lineup (I personally like M Young in the 3 hole and Rollins in the 6 or 7 hole), but it really doesn't matter what WE like. The foolish old goober will stubbornly write Rollins name in the lead off spot, as sure as I'm sitting here.
- Nice cheerleading by Paul SoTx. Check career stats versus LHP. Mayberry mashes lefties much better than Young. As for clubhouse cancer, here are two bits of evidence: 1. Nobody was willing to commit major league money to him. 2. The Phillies are forcing him to make weight six times. I don't see how Young suits up and puts a glove on for this team. His only exceptional skill is playing ball while looking as disinterested as possible.— jtj10
- I don't necessarily have an issue with him putting out percentages. Normal rationale would say that he's closer to the team than the average fan and able to give an informed opinion.
I don't like how he does it in this case. The sum of his percentages is 21.78. Do the exercise with an assumption of players in camp, and get the total number up to 25. Then we can debate the details on the board. As it stands now, he's basically missing 3 roster spots and offering little insight.— tripleplay83 - Would love to see Ender in Rt., Ruf in Left and Ben in Center to start the season. Why not? The others we know are all .240 hitters period. Let the new guys have some ABS and see if they can give some youth enthusiasm to the oldsters.— Koons
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High Cheese is your place for the best Phillies coverage from the Daily News.
David Murphy
Daily News Staff Writer
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