Phillies FA Preview: Third Base
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Phillies FA Preview: Third Base
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Over the past couple of days, we've taken a look at the various avenues the Phillies might take once the free agent signing period begins tomorrow. To recap, the Phillies have seven open roster spots to fill between now and spring training -- a starting third baseman, three relievers, a back-up catcher, and two other bench players. In a perfect world, they would also sign a player with the capability of competing for the fifth spot in the rotation with Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick.
According to our projections, they will have $119.75 million locked up to the 17 players who are under club control for next season. General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has said that he does not expect to spend much more on payroll than he did last season, when the Phillies finished the year paying out just over $137 million. So, for the sake of evaluating this free agent class, we are operating under the assumption that the Phillies will have a $140 million Opening Day payroll, giving them roughly $20.25 million to spend. This projection is hardly scientific. In reality, Amaro could be planning on spending more than $140 million, but it does not behoove him to publicly say so.
Over the last two days, we've looked at the bench and the bullpen situation. Now, we'll take a look at one of the most important voids the Phillies have to fill: third base.
I. Needs
We've spent a considerable amount of cyberspace breaking down the third base position, so feel free to go back and read our previous posts. In a nut shell, though, the Phillies decided to make Pedro Feliz a free agent for several reasons. Among major league third baseman, Feliz ranked 12th in batting average (.266), 18th in on base percentage (.308) and 18th in OPS (.694). Only two major league third basemen with enough qualifying at-bats had a lower OPS than Feliz.
Furthermore, Feliz's offensive shortcomings left the Phillies with subpar production out of the No. 7 spot in the order, where they ranked 19th in OPS.
But Feliz led the team in hitting with runners in scoring position and over the last two years established himself as one of the top defensive third basemen in the majors.
In order to upgrade the position, the Phillies need to find a player whose offensive production would off-set whatever defensive drop off he would present.
II. Potential Targets: DeRosa and Polanco
There are several third basemen - and infielders who can play third base - available. Below, we've broken down each of the leading candidates by the categories that the Phillies should be looking for in their new bat, including power, on base percentage, situational hitting and defense.
We said early on that the smart money was on Mark DeRosa, and it still might be given a combination of factors that includes affordability. But don't count out Placido Polanco, the former Phillie whose departure hastened the current year-by-year third base experiments by the front office. Polanco hasn't played third since 2005, but many believe he can transition back to the position with little problem (he won a Gold Glove at second base this season).
In many ways, Polanco could fit the Phillies roster better than DeRosa. For starters, he is a year younger. Secondly, he is an experienced everyday player who has at least 600 plate appearances in each of the last three seasons. He isn't coming off wrist surgery, as DeRosa is. He is a better defender at second and third and played some short stop earlier in his career. He hasn't proven that he can play extensively in the outfield. But the outfield is the least of the Phillies concerns right now.
At the plate, DeRosa has a clear edge in power, but statistics say that Polanco is a better situational hitter. To quantify situational hitting, you have to utilize some pretty specific statistics. The most basic, and easiest to understand, are "Productive Outs." Essentially, a "Productive Out" occurs when a hitter moves a runner with no out or drives home a runner while making the second out of the inning.
According to Baseball-Reference.com, the Phillies converted just 29 percent of their opportunities for a productive out, the third-worst percentage in the National League. With a man on third and less than two out, the Phillies scored just 48 percent of the time, which ranked in the bottom half of the NL.
Over the last three years, Polanco has converted on 32.8 percent of his opportunities for a productive out. DeRosa, on the other hand, has converted on 29.5 percent. Polanco also hits for a higher average, strikes out less, and has 13 sacrifice hits over the last two years compared to DeRosa's seven.
That said, the Phillies have always liked DeRosa, a former quarterback at Penn who can play the outfield as well as second and third.
Among the available third basemen that the Phillies are likely considering, DeRosa's defense at third base leaves the most to be desired. It is tough to quantify defense, so I'm not going to bother throwing out statistics. You'll just have to take my word for it based on conversations I've had with various scouts and personnel men. But DeRosa brings enough positives, both at the plate and in his versatility in the field (he has the tools to be an everyday second baseman or outfielder), where the Phillies would view him as an upgrade. A few weeks ago, I asked one veteran scout who has an intimate knowledge of the Phillies' roster if DeRosa would be an upgrade over Feliz, and he said that he would. The one unknown is what kind of contract DeRosa will be looking for. He'll be 35 years old on Opening Day and is coming off wrist surgery. He made $5.5 million last season, which is what the Phillies would have paid Feliz had they picked up his option. But a multi-year contract isn't out of the question. Even if DeRosa proves to be a liability at third base, his versatility would prevent him from turning into dead money. In a worst case scenario, the Phillies could be back in the market for a third baseman next offseason, while having DeRosa as an option in right field, where Jayson Werth will be a free agent, or as a super-utility man.
A lot has been made about DeRosa's roots, but I wouldn't put too much stock into that. For a player like DeRosa, who has never had a "huge" multi-year deal and who is in the twilight of his career, a situation like this offseason is all about maximizing his return. These guys have a very small window in which to make their money, and DeRosa's window is closing. But given the glut of third base candidates on the market, the Phillies have a good chance at signing DeRosa to a cost-effective deal.
Why would they want to do so?
1) DeRosa is extremely effective against left-handed pitching. Even last season, when he struggled with his wrist injury after being traded from the Indians to the Cardinals, he finished hitting .278 with a .341 on base percentage and .928 OPS against lefties. He averaged a home run every 12.6 at-bats against lefties. Feliz, meanwhile, hit just .208 against lefties, although that stat is an anomaly when you look at his career.
In 2008, DeRosa hit .310 with a .398 on base percentage and .894 OPS against lefties, while hitting .275 with a .367 on base percentage and .842 OPS against righties.
2) On paper over the last three years, DeRosa has brought a better combination of power and situational hitting than Polanco.
III. Other names to watch
Two of the more intriguing names out there are Adrian Beltre and Miguel Tejada. Beltre is coming off an injury-plagued season, but he is a good defender who put up impressive power numbers in a division rife with pitcher-friendly ballparks. Tejada, meanwhile, has never played third base, but many project him to eventually move to the position.
Tejada would seem to fit perfectly in the Phillies line-up, given his ability to both move runners and hit the ball out of the ballpark. But there are two big unknowns: Would he move to third base, and what is his price tag?
IV. What about Figgins?
Provided Chone Figgins lands the contract many expect him to, don't count on the Phillies as serious players. While there is no doubt he would upgrade the line-up and give the roster a tremendous, versatile weapon, there is a pretty good chance the Phillies do not feel he is worth the money given the other options that are out there.
V. Comparing the candidates
Below, I've broken down the key statistics posted by six free agent third basemen -- Polanco, DeRosa, Beltre, Figgins, Tejada and Troy Glaus. I've also included Feliz's numbers as a point of reference. I did not include Glaus' statistics fromt his past season, when he was limited to under 100 PA by injuries.
Plate Appearances
Feliz: 625 (2009), 463 (2008), 590 (2007), 644 (2006)
Polanco: 675 (2009), 629 (2008), 641 (2007), 495 (2006)
DeRosa: 576 (2009), 593 (2008), 574 (2007), 572 (2006)
Beltre: 477 (2009), 612 (2008), 639 (2007), 681 (2006)
Figgins: 729 (2009), 520 (2008), 503 (2007), 683 (2006)
Tejada: 673 (2009), 666 (2008), 568 (2007), 709 (2006)
Glaus: DNP (2009), 637 (2008), 456 (2007), 634 (2006)
On Base Percentage
Feliz: .308 (2009), .302 (2008), .290 (2007), .281 (2006)
Polanco: .331 (2009), .350 (2008), .388 (2007), .329 (2006)
DeRosa: .319 (2009), .376 (2008), .371 (2007), .357 (2006)
Beltre: .304 (2009), .327 (2008), .319 (2007), .328 (2006)
Figgins: .395 (2009), .367 (2008), .393 (2007), .336 (2006)
Tejada: .340 (2009), .314 (2008), .357 (2007), .379 (2006
Glaus: DNP (2009), .372 (2008), .366 (2007), .355 (2006)
Home Runs
Feliz: 12 (2009), 14 (2008), 20 (2007), 22 (2006)
Polanco: 10 (2009), 8 (2008), 9 (2007), 4 (2006)
DeRosa: 23 (2009), 21 (2008), 10 (2007), 13 (2006)
Beltre: 8 (2009), 25 (2008), 26 (2007), 25 (2006)
Figgins: 5 (2009), 1 (2008), 3 (2007), 9 (2006)
Tejada: 14 (2009), 13 (2008), 18 (2007), 24 (2006)
Glaus: DNP (2009), 27 (2008), 20 (2007), 38 (2006)
Slugging Percentage
Feliz: .386 (2009), .402 (2008), .418 (2007), .428 (2006)
Polanco: .396 (2009), .417 (2008), .458 (2007), .364 (2006)
DeRosa: .433 (2009), .481 (2008), .420 (2007), .456 (2006)
Beltre: .379 (2009), .457 (2008), .482 (2007), .465 (2006)
Figgins: .395 (2009), .367 (2008), .393 (2007), .336 (2006)
Tejada: .455 (2009), .415 (2008), .442 (2007), .498 (2006)
Glaus: DNP (2008), .483 (2008), .473 (2007), .513 (2006)
OPS
Feliz: .694 (2009), .705 (2008), .708 (2007), .709 (2006)
Polanco: .727 (2009), .768 (2008), .846 (2007), .693 (2006)
DeRosa: .752 (2009), .857 (2008), .792 (2007), .812 (2006)
Beltre: .683 (2009), .784 (2008), .802 (2007), .792 (2006)
Figgins: .789 (2009), .685 (2008), .825 (2007), .712 (2006)
Tejada: .795 (2009), .729 (2006), .799 (2007), .878 (2006)
Glaus: DNP (2009), .856 (2008), .839 (2007), .868 (2006)
AB/SO
Feliz: 8.5 (2009), 7.9 (2008), 8.0 (2007), 5.4 (2006)
Polanco: 13.4 (2009), 13.5 (2008), 19.6 (2007), 17.1 (2006)
DeRosa: 4.3 (2009), 4.8 (2008), 5.4 (2007), 5.1 (2006)
Beltre: 6.1 (2009), 6.2 (2008), 5.7 (2007), 5.3 (2006)
Figgins: 5.4 (2009), 5.7 (2008), 5.5 (2007), 6.0 (2006)
Tejada: 13.2 (2009), 8.8 (2008), 9.3 (2007), 8.2 (2006)
Glaus: DNP (2009), 5.2 (2008), 3.8 (2007), 4.0 (2006)
GIDP Percentage
Feliz: 10 (2009), 15 (2008), 14 (2007), 15 (2006)
Polanco: 13 (2009), 11 (2008), 8 (2007), 17 (2006)
DeRosa: 9 (2009), 7 (2008), 14 (2007), 11 (2006)
Beltre: 18 (2009), 10 (2008), 12 (2007), 10 (2006)
Figgins: 7 (2009), 11 (2008), 7 (2007), 6 (2006)
Tejada: 23 (2009), 21 (2008), 20 (2007), 16 (2006)
Glaus: DNP (2009), 11 (2008), 8 (2007), 20 (2006)
Productive Out Percentage
Feliz: 31 (17/54, 2009), 36 (17/47, 2008), 15 (8/53, 2007), 28 (21/74, 2006)
Polanco: 32 (20/62, 2009), 31 (22/70, 2008), 35 (23/66, 2007), 42 (24/57, 2006)
DeRosa: 31 (18/58, 2009), 24 (14/58, 2008), 34 (18/58, 2007), 24 (16/66, 2006)
Beltre: 15 (6/41, 2009), 32 (20/63, 2008), 22 (16/73, 2007), 27 (19/71, 2006)
Figgins: 35 (17/48, 2009), 35 (11/31, 2008), 38 (20/52, 2007), 38 (20/52, 2006)
Tejada: 39 (27/70, 2009), 38 (26/69, 2008), 35 (21/60, 2007), 35 (24/69, 2006)
Glaus: DNP (2009), 26 (14/53, 2008), 28 (11/40, 2007), 31 (18/59, 2006)
Man on Third, Less Than Two Out (Percentage runner scored)
Feliz: 67 (24/36, 2009), 57 (13/23, 2008), 46 (12/26, 2007), 52 (32/61, 2006)
Polanco: 58 (21/36, 2009), 56 (19/34, 2008), 68 (19/28, 2007), 65 (20/31, 2006)
DeRosa: 50 (19/38, 2009), 47 (25/53, 2008), 63 (22/35, 2007), 50 (17/34, 2006)
Beltre: 52 (17/33, 2009), 49 (19/39, 2008), 58 (18/31, 2007), 50 (23/46, 2006)
Figgins: 41 (13/32, 2009), 34 (10/29, 2008), 74 (26/35, 2007), 58 (19/33, 2006)
Tejada: 69 (27/39, 2009), 50 (15/30, 2008), 52 (23/44, 2007), 58 (29/50, 2006)
Glaus: DNP (2009), 48 (14/29, 2008), 51 (18/35, 2007), 49 (20/41, 2006)
Man on Second, No out (Percentage runner moved to third)
Feliz: 48 (16/33, 2009), 35 (9/26, 2008), 21 (5/24, 2007), 34 (18/53, 2006)
Polanco: 54 (13/24, 2009), 34 (12/35, 2008), 57 (26/46, 2007), 68 (21/31, 2006)
DeRosa: 38 (11/29, 2009), 38 (17/45, 2008), 38 (15/39, 2007), 51 (18/35, 2006)
Beltre: 55 (12/22, 2009), 43 (17/40, 2008), 54 (20/37, 2007), 28 (11/40, 2006)
Figgins: 46 (19/41, 2009), 32 (8/25, 2008), 48 (14/29, 2007), 64 (25/39, 2006)
Tejada: 46 (23/50, 2009), 40 (21/53, 2008), 45 (18/40, 2007), 56 (18/32, 2006)
Glaus: DNP (2009), 47 (16/34, 2008), 36 (10/28, 2007), 43 (16/37, 2006)
I agree with some of the posts, keep Feliz if you're not going to spend the money to really improve the position. The money could be better spent on the pitching issues...— JRum- "Polanco is a gold glove second baseman, our second baseman is not. Why not move Utley to third where we would not have to turn any double plays." In fact, Utley's the best defensive 2nd baseman in baseball: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/highs-and-lows-of-uzr-2007-9-utley— mkdelucas
- Tejeda was on fumes by the end of the seasom. Beltre is steroid brittle. Anyone but those two.— fakeplastic
Comment removed.- booman55 is right ..... Polanco was a terrible third baseman when he was here ...... In 2002, he made three (3) errors in the 173 chances for a .983 fielding percentage ..... In 2003, he made two (2) errors in 49 chances for a .959 fielding percentage ..... In 2004, he made zero (0) errors in 41 chances ..... And in 2005, he zero (0) errors in 23 chances ..... That's seven (7) errors in 286 chances ...... That comes out to a .983 fielding percentage in 95 games as a member of the Phillies ...... Whatever you do, booman55, don't let the facts get in the way of your opinion.— PhightinPhil
- BK, at the time, the Phillies couldn't put Polanco at 3rd because they had David Bell locked up for a few years. This also was a brilliant move to strengthen the bullpen so they traded for U. Urbina who had a profound impact on their postseason push by preparing to attack his employees with a machete.— catnameddomino
- Seeing as we need a 3rd baseman but also need a bench player that can play multiple positions and relieve players so that they can get a day off such as Rollins, Utley, Ibanez, etc.. Why cant we see consider getting both Polanco and Derosa. They can platoon at 3rd and whoever isnt playing 3rd that day can always play another position and give that guy a day off. I dont know what kind of money these 2 players will command but its worth considering— philliekev04
- I hear the Marlins 3rd baseman is available. He has a better righthanded stick than any of these free agents. Not sure about his defense but has good power. Maybe our 2nd best outfield prospect and a minor league pitcher could get him?— sfw
- Pbrax, where did you hear that?— benjyedwards
Polanco #1 and Derosa #2. johnnyu
Re-sign Pedro. He'll be a bit cheaper than $5.5 mil they would have paid and there is NOTHING wrong with 82 RBI's out of the 7 slot. The other candidates are bigger risks with long term contracts. There are no great options here but Pedro is the best. Sign Polanco to be the super sub and spell Rollins, Feliz and Ibanez as well as pinch hit. I'll bet he wouldn't mind coming back for a ring or two.- I don't see a candidate among free agents that blows me away in terms of value. Not perfect, but Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padre 3rd baseman appears to be intruiging. Average, strikeouts, OBP are not much improvement, but he's a young player who plays terrific defense, and will bang out 25-30 homers at he Bank. And the Pads have depth at 3rd base. And he struck out 30 fewr times last year. I'd like to see Ruben at least take a shot at him.— KBland
- zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz— scars73
- Thank you - I have been posting Polanco for the past two weeks and no one was listening. It is the best move. It allows you to use a page out of Tony Larussa's book and play this lineup - 1. Victorino (CF) 2. Polanco (3B) 3. Utley (2B) 4. Howard (1B) 5. Werth (RF) 6. Ibanez (LF) 7. Ruiz (C) 8. Pitcher (9) Rollins (SS) - The addition of a guy like Polanco with his solid OBS and low strikeouts increases your offense two fold. Batting Rollins ninth simply the puts four legitimate scoring chances on base in front of Howard. It's successful for Larussa, it can be successful for Manuel. Try it, and watch Rollins hit .300 in the nine hole.— mikeyg
- Feliz had 80+ rbi. That says a lot for a player batting in the 7th spot in the line up. Did his defense decline? Get a person at third base who does not field will KILL good pitching! How many rallies or hits did Feliz prevent with his defense? If what works WORKS don't change it!!!! It what you get in his place is a clearly better then you get it. Don't spend MORE fore LESS!
