How does this Phillies lineup stack up to the one the Nationals will field?
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How does this Phillies lineup stack up to the one the Nationals will field?
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
By DAVID MURPHY
The Phillies say they are unlikely to make another significant move before spring training. That means the lineup will be something similar to what you see right now. How does that compare to other contenders in the National League? We'll take a look at that question in the coming weeks as we get ready for spring training, which is now just 30 days away.
First, let's compare the Phillies lineup to that of the Nationals, who finished 17 games ahead of the Phillies in the NL East last season. The numbers for each player are his averages per 162 games over the last three seasons. The salaries are the Average Annual Value of the current contract.
| FIRST BASE | SALARY | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | RS |
| Ryan Howard, Phillies | $25 million | .256 | .339 | .483 | .822 | 35 | 125 | 87 |
| Adam LaRoche, National | $13 million | .255 | .323 | .462 | .788 | 29 | 101 | 78 |
ADVANTAGE: Phillies, although LaRoche was the superior player last season as Howard never was able to shake off the effects of an offseason lost to Achilles surgery. Howard is also twice as expensive as his counterpart in Washington.
| SECOND BASE | SALARY | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | RS |
| Chase Utley, Phillies | $12.1 million | .264 | .367 | .433 | .800 | 21 | 83 | 96 |
| Danny Espinosa, Nationals | $500,000 | .239 | .315 | .411 | .727 | 21 | 65 | 80 |
ADVANTAGE: Phillies, and it would be a huge advantage if Utley could stay on the field for all six months of the regular season. Thanks to the offensive dropoff they experienced with Utley on the disabled list for the first three months, Phillies second baseman finished 2013 hitting .255/.325/.411 with 17 home runs. Nationals second basemen hit .250/.314/.384 with 14 home runs.
| THIRD BASE | SALARY | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | RS |
| Michael Young, Phillies | $6.0 million | .299 | .341 | .430 | .771 | 14 | 91 | 92 |
| Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals | $16.7 million | .292 | .363 | .460 | .843 | 26 | 96 | 97 |
ADVANTAGE: Nationals, especially when you consider that Zimmerman is in the middle of his prime at 28 years old, while Young, at 36 years old, enters the season attempting to prove to naysayers that he is not washed up. Regardless of age, Zimmerman has a strong edge in power, base-reaching ability, and defense.
| SHORT STOP | SALARY | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | RS |
| Jimmy Rollins, Phillies | $9.5 million | .255 | .325 | .405 | .729 | 20 | 73 | 100 |
| Ian Desmond, Nationals | $3.2 million | .271 | .313 | .417 | .730 | 16 | 70 | 73 |
ADVANTAGE: Phillies, although you can certainly make an argument for the other side. My thinking goes like this: Prior to Desmond's huge season last year, he had hit .262/.304/.387 in his first 329 games in the majors. I'm gong to need to see more than one big year before I give him the benefit of the doubt. Of course, you could argue that Desmond's upside makes him the preferred option. I'll stick with the veteran hand, at least for now. Any way you look at it, the two teams are close at this position.
| LEFT FIELD | SALARY | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | RS |
| Darin Ruf, Phillies | $500,000 | .333 | .351 | .727 | 1.079 | 41 | 135 | 54 |
| Bryce Harper, Nationals | $2 million | .270 | .340 | .477 | .817 | 26 | 69 | 114 |
ADVANTAGE: Nationals, and it should be noted that Ruf's huge three-year numbers are composed solely of the ones he posted in 12 games last season, his first experience as a pro. If he manages to do it over the course of an entire season, than he'll have the advantage over pretty much every player in the National League, because he will be Albert Pujols. That being said, Harper has the better tools and the bigger sample size, and thus as the clear advantage at this position.
| CENTER FIELD | SALARY | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | RS |
| Ben Revere, Phillies | $500,000 | .278 | .319 | .323 | .642 | 0 | 41 | 82 |
| Denard Span, Nationals | $3.25 million | .271 | .334 | .367 | .702 | 5 | 54 | 90 |
ADVANTAGE: Nationals, although you can see what the Phillies were thinking when they traded for Revere shortly after Washington traded for Span, the two of whom were teammates on the Twins (Span played center field). At 28 years old, Span has likely reached his ceiling, at least when it comes to the maximizing of his tools. The Phillies can at least hope that Revere ends up developing into something more than a slap-hitter. For now, though, Span's marginal power gives him the advantage over Revere's non-existent pop.
| RIGHT FIELD | SALARY | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | RS |
| Domonic Brown, Phillies | $500,000 | .236 | .315 | .388 | .703 | 13 | 64 | 63 |
| Jayson Werth, Nationals | $18.0 million | .271 | .365 | .456 | .821 | 22 | 73 | 91 |
ADVANTAGE: Nationals. I'm curious to see what Brown would do over the course of an entire season, but we already know what Werth can do. And while his production over the past couple seasons has not matched the production we saw out of him here in Philadelphia, it's still far better than what anybody in the Phillies outfield has proven capable of on a consistent basis.
| CATCHER | SALARY | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | RS |
| Carlos Ruiz, Phillies | $4.6 million | .303 | .388 | .454 | .852 | 14 | 72 | 66 |
| Kurt Suzuki, Nationals | $4.25 million | .238 | .295 | .361 | .655 | 14 | 67 | 62 |
ADVANTAGE: Phillies, and it is probably their biggest advantage at any position. It won't be as big if Wilson Ramos can return from major knee surgery and produce at the level he did as a rookie, when he hit .267/.334/.445 with 15 home runs. And it won't be as big for the first 25 games of the season, when Ruiz serves a suspension for a positive test for amphetamines.
OVERALL: Clearly, the advantage goes to the Nationals, although if you squint you can see some reason to hope things will play out differently than they appear on paper. If Utley and Howard produce at their 2010 levels and either Brown or Ruf surprises with a big season and Revere develops some power, the Phillies would be thrilled with the results. Then again, those are some big Ifs, and the Nationals have plenty that can go right for them too.
"Clearly"?! Not so clear to me on either side:
-Werth hasn't been good for two years
-CF seems like a push
-I know he is young, but Harper had so much hype; I was actually expecting more.
-Desmond had a career year (like LaRoche); Rollins is getting old
-That was Zim's first good year in a while; Young's first sub-par year in a while
_Utley and Howard are old and old— beefbre- A lot depends on Revere and Ruff. They have the ability to to the balance. This assumes Howard and Utley are healthy and productive.— Breaking Bad
- This fails to take into account the fact that the extreme advantage defensively the Nationals have, particularly at 1B, 2B, 3B (SS is a push), and all over the outfield. If healthy the offenses are probably pretty comparable, although the age factor clearly favors the Nats. I think the Phillies close the gap this year but I can't see them making up 17 games. Especially since the pitching staffs are even at best.— Charlie Cheswick
- If anything depends on Revere "developing some power" - we are in trouble. That isn't going to just magically happen. Unfortunately, it isn't likely that a 36YO playing a position everyday that he didn't play well the last time he played it (2 years ago), is going to start playing it well and break out of his offensive slump at the same time - while facing pitchers that he hasn't seen regularly. We have reason to hope w/ Chase, Ryan, and the former MVP (who now is a loafer). Ruf and Brown are going to have to hit really well to make up for their defensive shortcomings. Who put this team together?!? Has a GM ever done a worse job with that kind of payroll??? 2nd highest payroll in the NL - I believe.
— Copper34 - Nationals have 3 backup outfielders (Roger Bernadina, Michael Morse, Tyler Moore) who are currently better than any Phillies outfielder.— zeke128
- Which suggests they (Nats) have a deeper bench.
And any Phils fan that thinks we can trade for Morse is delusional - no way Rizzo trades him in the NL East. It would have to be a delayed three or four team trade and there are few baseball GM's alive who know how to pull that off.— 24sDad - How did you compare Ruf and Harper and not laugh while doing it? People don't like the Nats being good? They were so bad for so long they got plenty of very high draft picks along the way, they should be good. Unfortunately, it may take that for the Phils to get younger and better. Sub-.500 year is what we're in for, I'm afraid.— PhillySubsMac
- 'Clearly' is based on two intangibles not calculated but alluded to in several of the comments. Youth and injuries - the latter including those injuries folks are coming off of and their propensity for injury or re-injury. Here, the Nats have it over the Phils in spades. One expects a younger player to have more stamina, and play more games. The numbers compared above mean nothing if the player doesn't play.
The last ingredient? The bench where the Nats may also have it on the Phillies which then is deeply associated with the health and durability of of the Phil's lineup.
— 24sDad - Clearly? The only spots the NAts clearly have an advantage with the 8 starters on paper...is LF 3B and RF. (span and revere are the same guy..spans 5 Homers is what the deciding factor is?...I'll counter with Revere 40-50 SB) 3 out of 8 is a clear advantage for the Nats? Interesting conclusion. Bench clearly Nats..and until we know what Doc and Bpen will be..gotta give them a Pitching edge. But the point of the article seems pretty close to me on paper— phillykid96
- Clearly? Phils ad in 4, Nats ad in 4. Yes. Crystal clear Murph. Good job yet again.— pbuscio
- The Nats have better pitching. That's what counts!!!!!— 4thand10
- Charlie C - if you think they have an 'extreme advantage defesnively', you clearly don't know the game. The fact you say SS is a wash supports that. The only area the Gnats have a distinct advantage is in left and right.
And it simply isn't about making up 17 games. There were several reasons for the Phils slide to 500 last year (an EXTREME rash of injuries for one). Not antcipating that level of injury and with their acquisitions, the would be meaurably be lessened. While the Phils aren't getting any younger, it isn't as if the Gnats are full of 'spring chickens'. Besides that, this isn't a sprinting exhibition and age in baseball isn't as impacting as some of the more physical sports.— hvitoloco - Um, let's see...Adam LaRoche is probably the best defensive 1B in the NL. Ryan Howard is not. Danny Espinosa is one of the best defensive 2B's in the game, and while Utley is not bad he has never been confused with Robbie Alomar, even when at his healthiest. Ryan Zimmerman is a former GG winner and in the argument for best defensive 3B in all of baseball not named Adrian Beltre. SS is absolutely an argument if you have ever watched Ian Desmond play the position.
And are you really arguing that the Phillies aren't significantly older around their infield? You don't have any idea what you are talking about.— Charlie Cheswick - Why are you so worried about power from Revere? If he hits near .300 and steals 40 bases and scores 100 runs, he will be the Phils best leadoff hitter since Richie Ashburn. If you check Howard's average with men in scoring positon, you will see that even last year, he hit far better when there was someone who needed to be driven in. What you want is for him to develop patience at the plate to add 50 -0 70 walks to 175 - 180 hits over a full season. What the Phils need is some pop from the corner outfielders. That is why Ruf is so intriguing. If you platoon Brown/Mayberry you can count on about 20 HR.— gotedge
- Closeout sale year. Utley gets traded at deadline, Brown is a bust, Mayberry still a stiff, Nix is Nix, Revere hits .280 with 20 RBI's. No bench, outfield stays a mess. Young hits .285, Chooch is 2011 model, Ruf hits 25 hr's but is Lonnie Smith in the field, Howard has a so-so year, bullpen is a mess, Doc struggles, Cole does a DL stint, Lee is 3 games over .500. Won't be a red October.— jimmymack
