How does this Phillies lineup stack up to the one the Nationals will field?
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How does this Phillies lineup stack up to the one the Nationals will field?
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
By DAVID MURPHY
The Phillies say they are unlikely to make another significant move before spring training. That means the lineup will be something similar to what you see right now. How does that compare to other contenders in the National League? We'll take a look at that question in the coming weeks as we get ready for spring training, which is now just 30 days away.
First, let's compare the Phillies lineup to that of the Nationals, who finished 17 games ahead of the Phillies in the NL East last season. The numbers for each player are his averages per 162 games over the last three seasons. The salaries are the Average Annual Value of the current contract.
| FIRST BASE | SALARY | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | RS |
| Ryan Howard, Phillies | $25 million | .256 | .339 | .483 | .822 | 35 | 125 | 87 |
| Adam LaRoche, National | $13 million | .255 | .323 | .462 | .788 | 29 | 101 | 78 |
ADVANTAGE: Phillies, although LaRoche was the superior player last season as Howard never was able to shake off the effects of an offseason lost to Achilles surgery. Howard is also twice as expensive as his counterpart in Washington.
| SECOND BASE | SALARY | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | RS |
| Chase Utley, Phillies | $12.1 million | .264 | .367 | .433 | .800 | 21 | 83 | 96 |
| Danny Espinosa, Nationals | $500,000 | .239 | .315 | .411 | .727 | 21 | 65 | 80 |
ADVANTAGE: Phillies, and it would be a huge advantage if Utley could stay on the field for all six months of the regular season. Thanks to the offensive dropoff they experienced with Utley on the disabled list for the first three months, Phillies second baseman finished 2013 hitting .255/.325/.411 with 17 home runs. Nationals second basemen hit .250/.314/.384 with 14 home runs.
| THIRD BASE | SALARY | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | RS |
| Michael Young, Phillies | $6.0 million | .299 | .341 | .430 | .771 | 14 | 91 | 92 |
| Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals | $16.7 million | .292 | .363 | .460 | .843 | 26 | 96 | 97 |
ADVANTAGE: Nationals, especially when you consider that Zimmerman is in the middle of his prime at 28 years old, while Young, at 36 years old, enters the season attempting to prove to naysayers that he is not washed up. Regardless of age, Zimmerman has a strong edge in power, base-reaching ability, and defense.
| SHORT STOP | SALARY | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | RS |
| Jimmy Rollins, Phillies | $9.5 million | .255 | .325 | .405 | .729 | 20 | 73 | 100 |
| Ian Desmond, Nationals | $3.2 million | .271 | .313 | .417 | .730 | 16 | 70 | 73 |
ADVANTAGE: Phillies, although you can certainly make an argument for the other side. My thinking goes like this: Prior to Desmond's huge season last year, he had hit .262/.304/.387 in his first 329 games in the majors. I'm gong to need to see more than one big year before I give him the benefit of the doubt. Of course, you could argue that Desmond's upside makes him the preferred option. I'll stick with the veteran hand, at least for now. Any way you look at it, the two teams are close at this position.
| LEFT FIELD | SALARY | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | RS |
| Darin Ruf, Phillies | $500,000 | .333 | .351 | .727 | 1.079 | 41 | 135 | 54 |
| Bryce Harper, Nationals | $2 million | .270 | .340 | .477 | .817 | 26 | 69 | 114 |
ADVANTAGE: Nationals, and it should be noted that Ruf's huge three-year numbers are composed solely of the ones he posted in 12 games last season, his first experience as a pro. If he manages to do it over the course of an entire season, than he'll have the advantage over pretty much every player in the National League, because he will be Albert Pujols. That being said, Harper has the better tools and the bigger sample size, and thus as the clear advantage at this position.
| CENTER FIELD | SALARY | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | RS |
| Ben Revere, Phillies | $500,000 | .278 | .319 | .323 | .642 | 0 | 41 | 82 |
| Denard Span, Nationals | $3.25 million | .271 | .334 | .367 | .702 | 5 | 54 | 90 |
ADVANTAGE: Nationals, although you can see what the Phillies were thinking when they traded for Revere shortly after Washington traded for Span, the two of whom were teammates on the Twins (Span played center field). At 28 years old, Span has likely reached his ceiling, at least when it comes to the maximizing of his tools. The Phillies can at least hope that Revere ends up developing into something more than a slap-hitter. For now, though, Span's marginal power gives him the advantage over Revere's non-existent pop.
| RIGHT FIELD | SALARY | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | RS |
| Domonic Brown, Phillies | $500,000 | .236 | .315 | .388 | .703 | 13 | 64 | 63 |
| Jayson Werth, Nationals | $18.0 million | .271 | .365 | .456 | .821 | 22 | 73 | 91 |
ADVANTAGE: Nationals. I'm curious to see what Brown would do over the course of an entire season, but we already know what Werth can do. And while his production over the past couple seasons has not matched the production we saw out of him here in Philadelphia, it's still far better than what anybody in the Phillies outfield has proven capable of on a consistent basis.
| CATCHER | SALARY | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | RS |
| Carlos Ruiz, Phillies | $4.6 million | .303 | .388 | .454 | .852 | 14 | 72 | 66 |
| Kurt Suzuki, Nationals | $4.25 million | .238 | .295 | .361 | .655 | 14 | 67 | 62 |
ADVANTAGE: Phillies, and it is probably their biggest advantage at any position. It won't be as big if Wilson Ramos can return from major knee surgery and produce at the level he did as a rookie, when he hit .267/.334/.445 with 15 home runs. And it won't be as big for the first 25 games of the season, when Ruiz serves a suspension for a positive test for amphetamines.
OVERALL: Clearly, the advantage goes to the Nationals, although if you squint you can see some reason to hope things will play out differently than they appear on paper. If Utley and Howard produce at their 2010 levels and either Brown or Ruf surprises with a big season and Revere develops some power, the Phillies would be thrilled with the results. Then again, those are some big Ifs, and the Nationals have plenty that can go right for them too.
Can't make these projections. Ruf vs Harper? Werth vs Brown? Wasted use of letters.— Barneyboy-
"Um, let's see...Adam LaRoche is probably the best defensive 1B in the NL. Ryan Howard is not. Danny Espinosa is one of the best defensive 2B's in the game, and while Utley is not bad he has never been confused with Robbie Alomar, even when at his healthiest. Ryan Zimmerman is a former GG winner and in the argument for best defensive 3B in all of baseball not named Adrian Beltre. SS is absolutely an argument if you have ever watched Ian Desmond play the position.
And are you really arguing that the Phillies aren't significantly older around their infield? You don't have any idea what you are talking about."
— Charlie Cheswick
Actually Charlie, you're the one who sounds like he doesn't know what he's talking about. The Nats are already planning for the day when Zimmerman can no longer handle third base. They are concerned that for reasons they don't understand Zimmerman has trouble with routine throws from a set position. There are shoulder issues there and they may have to move him to first. Desmond covers a lot of ground but makes a lot of throwing errors. He's improving and is not a liability but don't appoint him a gold glover just yet. Espinoza is solid, is actuaslly better going up the middle then he is to his glove side. LaRoche is the only guy I recognize from your description and I live in D.C. and see these guys a lot.— Claudio Vernight - Zimmerman's shoulder is an issue but that doesn't stop him from being clearly a far superior 3B to Michael Young who has spent very little of his career there and is a downgrade from Polanco defensively. The main reason they will move him to 1B is because of Anthony Rendon who is one of the best young prospects in the game. Desmond is an on the rise player whose defense has improved every year and the only guy on the field who may be slightly below his Phillies counterpart. Espinosa is elite defensively at both 2B and SS and the only reason he is at 2B is because Desmond is so good. — Charlie Cheswick
- Clearly to the Nats? What are you smoking, Murph, or has your calculator broken? It looks to me like it's 4 positions to each side! How is that clearly to the Nats?— vietnamvet
- Charlie Cheswick is absolutely right. The Nats' defensive advantage is huge at 1st, 3rd and the outfield. Better pitiching, too.— altoonaaslan
- Funny stuff guys ,but the OLD Phils are like burnt toast toooooooooo crispy to fry.— tobyjoe
- i'm not sold on the nats having better pitching, so what the phils pitching had an off year. plenty of rest and we'll see.— sgamble077
- i think the stinking nationals are better in all the positions except catcher and much friendlier contracts. ESPECIALLY their starting rotation: Strasburg better than Hamels. Gonzalez better than Lee. Zimmerman better than Doc (unfortunately). Detwiller better than Kendrick (LOL). Any guy other than Lannan is better than Lannan.— xrajux
- your stats are pure junk.
either you use an average of the past to represent the possible future (Howard & Utley) or you comically extrapolate a few weeks into a monster season (Ruf).
taking the comically overpaid Rollins over Desmond is an error.— ekw555 - This article is written by a complete homer....Desmond was an all star last year and has been improving every year. He's very young and Rollins is on a sharp decline. Your arguments for Howard and Utley had huge IF's in them regarding their health. Comparing Harper to Ruf is ridiculous. Chooch had a career year last year, but also got caught cheating. I don't think he's that huge of an advvantage over Suzuki and Ramos. Also, you failed to mention the defense that each team is putting out there. Nats have the best defensive outfield out there and their infield has 2 gold glovers and 2 others who will be in the running every year. This article is delusional and anyone who sides with the Phils on this has their eyes completely closed.— JustAnOpinion
- Murphy didn't mention a few things. The Nats lost most of their middle relievers from last year to free agency. That was a huge asset to them. Does anyone really expect Gio Gonzalez to win 20 games again? Everything went right for them last season except the bonehead move to not pitch Strasburg in the playoffs last year. The Phillies had every bad break in the book last season including injuries, Halladay not pitching like Halladay and nobody who could pitch the eighth inning. The Phillies have a lot of question marks this season but maybe Ruf is the real deal and maybe the real Roy Halladay will return. The Nats caught some breaks last season. It won't be so easy in 2013.— syddan26
Comparing lineups is fun. But it doesn't really mean much. See the Giants lineup from 2010 and 2012.
Nats pitchers ... all of them ... were very, very good last season. Let's see how they follow that up. By the way, Phils vs Nats last year 9-9.— zubzub- Phils "clearly" have the advantage of having been through some adversity last year. All the Nats need is a Werth meltdown, an inevitable down year from Harper, an early ligament issue with Strasburg and they'll all come apart. Phil fans are the best, too, whereas in DC they're bandwagon jumpers and no-shows.— BillGee
- And we are back to all the "ifs"
Another sloppy article by Murpf - I guess the dog eat the second half of the piece.— majpooper - Head to head comparisons are valuable for evaluating the teams and matchups. However, if this was all it took to win games then we wouldnt have to play them for real, just simulate on computer. The reason we love sports is because of the factors that can’t be measured (until after the season). Team chemistry, injuries or lack thereof, surprise performances by unknowns, mid-season trades, which team has momentum at the end of the season, etc. I’m ready to start the season with what we have; improvements can be made as needed.
— terrycindyian
