Phillies pay steep price for Revere
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Phillies pay steep price for Revere
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
The Phillies wrapped up the winter meetings by landing a center fielder who they hope will hold down the position for at least the next four years. There are plenty of indications that Ben Revere can be that man. But to acquire him, the Phillies made themselves weaker in the rotation, at least for time being, by sending Vance Worley to the Twins. They also parted with a player who entered the 2012 season as a Top 100 prospect as rated by Baseball America.
So what's the verdict?
As we noted, there are two issues to evaluate in this deal. Clearly, there is a lot to like about Revere. He has the reputation as a defensive whiz, with speed and base-running ability comparable to Michael Bourn, whom the Phillies decided against pursuing on the free agent market because of his asking price. Those abilities alone virtually guarantee that he will be, at the very least, an everyday major leaguer. His arm, according to scouts, is one of the weakest in the game, but in center field that should not be a huge issue. Everybody seems to agree that Revere can play stellar defense at the major league level.
The other characteristic Revere has that convinced the Phillies to pay a premium price is his youth. He does not turn 25 until May 3, and he has just 1 year and 149 days of service, meaning he won't be eligible for arbitration until after 2013 at the earliest. That means that the Phillies will pay their center fielder somewhere in the neighborhood of $515,000 this season, which obviously frees up money to address their other needs.
Other positives:
-Over the last two seasons he has stolen 74 bases while being thrown out just 18 times.
-His batting average, slugging percentage, and on base percentage all increased last year, from .267/.310/.309 to .294/.333/.342.
-He is a contact hitter, striking out in only 9.4 percent of his plate appearances, more than 10 percent better than league average.
-He is regarded as an excellent baserunner. Of the 14 times he has been on first base when a double has been hit, he has scored eight times. And he has scored on second from a single on 32-of-36 opportunities.
-He bunted for a base hit nine times last season.
-Away from pitcher-friendly Target Field, he has a career .297 batting average and .341 on base percentage.
It isn't a stretch of the imagination to see Revere developing as Bourn did, increasing his on base percentage and power to the point where he is a an average-to-slightly-above-average major league hitter, which, when combined with his defense and baserunning, would likely make him a huge bargain for the remainder of his time until club control.
That being said, the Phillies seem to have given up a ton to get Revere. That was my first reaction, and it seems to be pretty universal. While Revere makes plenty of contact, his walk rate and extra base hit rate are well below league average. The walk rate particularly is concerning, because Revere profiles as a leadoff hitter, and you'd like your leadoff hitter to reach base at least 34 percent of the time. If he cannot do that, you'd at least like for him to hit for power. The Phillies are putting a lot of stock in Revere's potential to develop. If Revere does not improve and Worley ends up becoming a middle-of-the-rotation fixture in Minnesota, it will be tough to argue that this trade is a win.
Which brings up the critical part of the equation: who replaces Worley in the rotation? The Phillies clearly plan on addressing the new vacancy on the free agent market. So it is possible that they could end up with an upgrade at the back end of the rotation, particularly when you consider the fact that Worley has never reached 150 innings in a season and struggled a bit with his conditioning last year (and is coming off a tough season that ended with minor elbow surgery). But their first concern is a right-handed power bat, and Michael Young does not count (reports had the Phillies attempting to deal for the Texas infielder, with Young needing to waive his no-trade clause to facilitate it).
I have long advocated Nick Swisher as the guy, but I have not heard anything from anybody that would indicate the Phillies have serious interest in him (Swisher is a switch-hitter, by the way). Josh Hamilton is a left-handed bat. Beyond those two, we drop down to players like Cody Ross and Scott Hairston, both of whom have power, but neither of whom reach base enough to be considered an impact player. Ryan Ludwick had been rumored to be on the verge of signing with the Reds, but apparently that has not happened yet. So he is available. The Phillies could also try to swing another trade.
A lot could depend on what kind of starter they are targeting. It wouldn't surprise me to see them make a play for Ryan Dempster, who has a pretty good relationship with pitching coach Rich Dubee from their time together with the Marlins. He is 36 years old and, reportedly, looking for a three-year deal, but that hasn't always deterred the Phillies in the past. He has experience as a closer too, for what that is worth. The top of the market features Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez and Edwin Jackson, followed by guys like Dempster, Kyle Lohse, Shaun Marcum, Brandon McCarthy and Joe Saunders. It's hard to believe that the Phillies would have enough money to land a Greinke or Sanchez and still have enough to add an impact bat and address the bullpen. But you never know.
Someone like Dempster, Lohse or McCarthy would make a lot of sense, particularly the first two.
Long story short, it is too early to assign a pass/fail mark to this trade. But when you consider the fact that the Nationals gave up one top pitching prospect for Denard Span, who is a vastly more accomplished and talented hitter, you can make an argument that the Phillies might have been better off using Worley to try to build a package for Span.
The question isn't just what did Worley and May land the Phillies in Revere, but what could have it landed them elsewhere?
We'll have to let the offseason play out before judging any further.
If someone said you could get Bourn for Worley & May it would be a no-brainer. But the reality is, Bourn will cost at least $75M and tie our hands for 5 years. During that time we will watch his skills skills and speed diminish (see second half of last season) and eventually regret the bloated contract. Instead we added a guy who basically looks and plays like Bourn did when he was starting his Astros years. Speed, fielding, contact hitting. On top of that Revere strikes out significantly less, costs less, is controllable for years, and gives the Phils financial flexability down the road. Meanwhile, Worley is on his way to the mediocrity of JA Happ now that the league has seen him, and is just another back of the rotation starter - easy to find and replace. Losing May sucks - but the Phils saw things this year that made him expendable. I won't be surprised when he fizzles in the Twins minor leagues. I like this trade, and have been thrilled that the Phils have avoided overpaying the average-at-best group of free agents out there.- Excellent post, Chris. Upton or Bourn would have been long-term disasters for the Phils. Revere is exactly what's needed to balance out the older age and heavier contracts of players like Rollins, Howard, and Lee. And it looks like the kid can play. Phils still need a power bat, though. NOT Hamilton, who is too risky a proposition. Cody Ross isn't enough. Swisher?
Worley wil be replaced by a better, more reliable four or five via free agency. May is a prospect but one whose stock dropped considerably last season. At some point folks you havto take risks. Taking one on a young guy, who is getting better, has upside, is "controllable", doesn't strike out, and steals bases is a great move. Sweat if he is Juan Pierre at 24? I'd take that every day at the lead off spot. And, Rurbenis not done. Look for another impactful move for a 3B or OF with the money he saved by not signing Bourn - a guy who strikes out way too much for this lineup.— topwonk- 2013 World Series champs. We are now way better than Atlanta and Washington. This kid is the next Hamilton.— Drew777
- @Rat - Acquiring Young with 2 or 3 years left on his contract would qualify as a reach, but for one year at $6M? Not so much. I'm not sure I agree that CF needs to be a high RBI position, either. You should be able to get that production from LF, RF. CF is normally a speed position. Howard will bounce back this year. I predict he will actually return to pre-Achilles form now that his ankle is 110%. Rollins won't be leading off in a Sanberg lineup, either. One more year of that particular nonsense is all we will be forced to stomach, thank God.— Sam Crow
- People need to take it easy with this top prospect stuff. I'd bet their are around 10 other prospects the phillies value higher than May. In my opinion, and apparently the phillies(as well as other mlb teams or else he would have been more sought after and brought a bigger return), he is not their top prospect, not even close. He's not even the most major league ready pitcher they have, 4 other guys who would get a callup before May. I like Vance a lot but he's a 4th starter at best and we've proven more than capable of bringing up a young kid with not the greatest stuff and making it work. I'm gonna do the smart thing and wait till Ruben finishes his plan. If we add Michael Young, who i'm ok with(only 1 yr), along with a solid 8th inning guy(still guys out there). We'll still have a nice chunk of change to get the power threat we need as well as a backend starter. The market for pitchers hasn't even taken shape yet. Not to mention Ruben is always willing to add a significant piece at the trade deadline. Just be patient and let this play out. This isn't the last move Ruben will make, especially since Revere in terms of money is costing us absolutely nothing. We added a very speedy cf, who can steal bases and hit for avg(which people were clamoring for) and it doesn't affect our remaining budget at all. With the cost of position players going through the roof they'll end up spending less on a back end starter than they would have on a FA center fielder. Seems to me that's probably why Ruben made this deal, solid player but incredibly cheap, so he can get more value for his money at other positions.— Stephen45
- No Cody Ross, please.— philly2sf
- please. they didn't give up anything. Worley will struggle to stay in the twins rotation this year. he's a #4 at best. and I'm not convinced may will ever be anything that special either.— Ryan
Good trade. We had to replace the speed we lost with Pierre and this kid is much younger and a good slap hitter. I'm hoping Ruf gets a job in the outfield. He could be the missing power tehy need. Worley is a decent fourth starter but I think they replace him.— The Monk- Not a good day in philly.Avantasux you are brighter than all these posters.Warbiscuit you are my favorite poster because you can read DUMB RUBE like a book.I often say you can sell the philly fans anything.Selling M.Young is not a good move.Would love to have Upton(not B J)and all his HOMERS.— tobyjoe
- Steep price? Worley = Happ, a 4 or 5 starter at best, and prospects are prospects. I'll trade that any day for a legit young speedy defensive smallball player.
A smallball player is exactly what this team needed to start to remember how to manufacture runs. Revere could easily develop into an all star considering the numbers he's already put up. I seriously doubt there's any chance of ever seeing Worley in an all star game.— Jangocat - After reading more about Revere, I don't think there's any way Cholly can do anything but bat him first in the lineup. Jimmy Rollins days in the leadoff spot are officially over if this kid can keep his average above .280 and runs the bases like they say he does. The Lil' Slugger better get used to his new role setting the table for the 7, 8, and 9 hitters.— Sam Crow
- I told Rube to sit tight! Do nothing!!! Now look what he's done. Twins fans very happy with this trade. Accordng to a Twins post "Revere throws like a girl".— john blatnik
- To me this deal was worth either Worley or May and one other minor leaguer. It's not that May is the next Cy Young. Just that it feels like the Phillies didn't have to give up so much. It's something we may not know for years.
This move isn't going to look good unless they make some other bigger moves. Young is really a non-factor here in my opinion. I agree with signing him for the year but you can't look at him as any difference maker unless we get lucky. They could really upgrade the rotation by going after a guy like Anibal Sanchez but I don't see that happening. Maybe Rube will surprise us since he seems to love pitching so much. I think with another outfielder, unless there's a good trade to be had, you'd have to go with Hamilton for a clear upgrade. I'm not a big Swisher fan. Or Cody Ross.— s - was never a big worley fan,too injury prone,and may is an unknown...revere could be a player who morphs into an above average player and the deal is sensible from a monetary standpoint...young would be a huge upgrade at 3rd and if they can swing a deal or acquire a 5th starter somewhere they would only need an 8th inning set up guy and a more reliable bench outfielder...chris heisey,maybe?/— jabac
