Phillies pay steep price for Revere
The Phillies wrapped up the winter meetings by landing a center fielder who they hope will hold down the position for at least the next four years. There are plenty of indications that Ben Revere can be that man. But to acquire him, the Phillies made themselves weaker in the rotation, at least for time being, by sending Vance Worley to the Twins. They also parted with a player who entered the 2012 season as a Top 100 prospect as rated by Baseball America.
Phillies pay steep price for Revere
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
The Phillies wrapped up the winter meetings by landing a center fielder who they hope will hold down the position for at least the next four years. There are plenty of indications that Ben Revere can be that man. But to acquire him, the Phillies made themselves weaker in the rotation, at least for time being, by sending Vance Worley to the Twins. They also parted with a player who entered the 2012 season as a Top 100 prospect as rated by Baseball America.
So what's the verdict?
As we noted, there are two issues to evaluate in this deal. Clearly, there is a lot to like about Revere. He has the reputation as a defensive whiz, with speed and base-running ability comparable to Michael Bourn, whom the Phillies decided against pursuing on the free agent market because of his asking price. Those abilities alone virtually guarantee that he will be, at the very least, an everyday major leaguer. His arm, according to scouts, is one of the weakest in the game, but in center field that should not be a huge issue. Everybody seems to agree that Revere can play stellar defense at the major league level.
The other characteristic Revere has that convinced the Phillies to pay a premium price is his youth. He does not turn 25 until May 3, and he has just 1 year and 149 days of service, meaning he won't be eligible for arbitration until after 2013 at the earliest. That means that the Phillies will pay their center fielder somewhere in the neighborhood of $515,000 this season, which obviously frees up money to address their other needs.
Other positives:
-Over the last two seasons he has stolen 74 bases while being thrown out just 18 times.
-His batting average, slugging percentage, and on base percentage all increased last year, from .267/.310/.309 to .294/.333/.342.
-He is a contact hitter, striking out in only 9.4 percent of his plate appearances, more than 10 percent better than league average.
-He is regarded as an excellent baserunner. Of the 14 times he has been on first base when a double has been hit, he has scored eight times. And he has scored on second from a single on 32-of-36 opportunities.
-He bunted for a base hit nine times last season.
-Away from pitcher-friendly Target Field, he has a career .297 batting average and .341 on base percentage.
It isn't a stretch of the imagination to see Revere developing as Bourn did, increasing his on base percentage and power to the point where he is a an average-to-slightly-above-average major league hitter, which, when combined with his defense and baserunning, would likely make him a huge bargain for the remainder of his time until club control.
That being said, the Phillies seem to have given up a ton to get Revere. That was my first reaction, and it seems to be pretty universal. While Revere makes plenty of contact, his walk rate and extra base hit rate are well below league average. The walk rate particularly is concerning, because Revere profiles as a leadoff hitter, and you'd like your leadoff hitter to reach base at least 34 percent of the time. If he cannot do that, you'd at least like for him to hit for power. The Phillies are putting a lot of stock in Revere's potential to develop. If Revere does not improve and Worley ends up becoming a middle-of-the-rotation fixture in Minnesota, it will be tough to argue that this trade is a win.
Which brings up the critical part of the equation: who replaces Worley in the rotation? The Phillies clearly plan on addressing the new vacancy on the free agent market. So it is possible that they could end up with an upgrade at the back end of the rotation, particularly when you consider the fact that Worley has never reached 150 innings in a season and struggled a bit with his conditioning last year (and is coming off a tough season that ended with minor elbow surgery). But their first concern is a right-handed power bat, and Michael Young does not count (reports had the Phillies attempting to deal for the Texas infielder, with Young needing to waive his no-trade clause to facilitate it).
I have long advocated Nick Swisher as the guy, but I have not heard anything from anybody that would indicate the Phillies have serious interest in him (Swisher is a switch-hitter, by the way). Josh Hamilton is a left-handed bat. Beyond those two, we drop down to players like Cody Ross and Scott Hairston, both of whom have power, but neither of whom reach base enough to be considered an impact player. Ryan Ludwick had been rumored to be on the verge of signing with the Reds, but apparently that has not happened yet. So he is available. The Phillies could also try to swing another trade.
A lot could depend on what kind of starter they are targeting. It wouldn't surprise me to see them make a play for Ryan Dempster, who has a pretty good relationship with pitching coach Rich Dubee from their time together with the Marlins. He is 36 years old and, reportedly, looking for a three-year deal, but that hasn't always deterred the Phillies in the past. He has experience as a closer too, for what that is worth. The top of the market features Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez and Edwin Jackson, followed by guys like Dempster, Kyle Lohse, Shaun Marcum, Brandon McCarthy and Joe Saunders. It's hard to believe that the Phillies would have enough money to land a Greinke or Sanchez and still have enough to add an impact bat and address the bullpen. But you never know.
Someone like Dempster, Lohse or McCarthy would make a lot of sense, particularly the first two.
Long story short, it is too early to assign a pass/fail mark to this trade. But when you consider the fact that the Nationals gave up one top pitching prospect for Denard Span, who is a vastly more accomplished and talented hitter, you can make an argument that the Phillies might have been better off using Worley to try to build a package for Span.
The question isn't just what did Worley and May land the Phillies in Revere, but what could have it landed them elsewhere?
We'll have to let the offseason play out before judging any further.
- Chris Heisey rocks!...Just needs at bats.
— bearsfriend - I am not sure about you anymore david. You seem to be on the wrong side of every decsion. I don't think you now much about baseball. Vance Worley is a 5th starter and there are a slew of players on the FA market who would be an upgrade. May is going downhill not uphill which is a bad sign. With the additon of Young, the Phillies cans till add another bat and have Ruf/Brown. Say they add a Marcum with Young, Revere and another outfield addition, they are vastly improved team. Revere and Young are what the Phillies bneed, guys who can hit for average. I don't what League Average means since its attached to All-stars and platoon players alike(apparently 85% of players are league average), so wherever you Misleading Metrics guys cooked this up, you can keep it, it smells bad.— UncleStosh
- should have signed Melky Cabrera - and for all you holier-than-thou types, seems that Carlos Ruiz sudden amazing transformnation into a good player wasn't entirely natural either...and it seems that Braun didnt decline one iota after he was caught so would assume Melky can keep it up too now that he had his "boost" --woud rather have a productive cheater like Melky than an incompetent Bube as g.m.— warbiscuit
- who's the bigger thief? Melky and Carlos Ruiz for transforming themselves into good players by cheating, or Ruben Amaro who steals a salary and acts like a big-shot g.m. of a major league baseball team, when in reality he has zero ability to evaluate players or assemble a roster and has absolutley no clue what he's doing ... someone give the Clueless Rube his gameboy back— warbiscuit
- Murphy and others have expressed concern about Revere's walk rate. Twins' analyst Roy Smalley (former SS) addressed that point on WIP today. For those who didn't hear him, Smalley said that because the Twins had Revere hitting second last season, they wanted him to swing the bat to try to advance lead-off man Span, not take walks. Smalley felt Revere had a very good idea of the strike zone and would get on base more if he were asked to lead off. So there's that.— Dave Clemens
- We'll have to wait a year to determine it but I think that Worley shot his load as a rookie and he will become another Joe Blanton. He doesn't have a true out pitch and I think that even if his arm had been healthy, he would have slipped last year from his rookie year. May? Another minor league question mark. He does NOT have a big arm. The Phillies got a CF who can hit .290 - .300 and flag the ball in the field. Michael Young is a pro's pro. He is not the best at anything but he gives you a day's work wherever you play him. He is a leader in the Jim Eisenreich mold. Now, the Phils need to close the deal with Young and get another outfielder and an 8th inning relief pitcher. So far, the Phils have kept their treasury intact for a big deal or two. As for giving up Victorino and Pense, they are both overpriced for what they bring to the table. The Phillies are trying to compensate for all the money they spent on 3 pitchers and 2 infielders and still put together a winner. Revere is step one in that process.— gotedge
- twins fans love this trade which means rube is still a boob— 1stamendment
- As with every trade, time will tell if we over traded for Revere. Anyway, I like this deal. Fast, young and a great fielder. We just got better and cheaper.— bobcitydoc
- speed always wins. take it over a pitcher that never went more than 150 innings any day of the week.— rich brunetti
- Lets hope he is better than Ben Rivera....— tomficara
- Pence? Worst RF in recent memory, certainly no Willie Montanez...I like the trade, this kid has hops and a great glove, not to mention the anti-thesis of the other Phillies (NO WHIF)— BirdinParadise
- @Sam Crow: I do like your optimism! Regarding M Young, I am in the minority here and am perfectly fine with Kevin Frandsen. Young does provide a value in playing other infield positions if and when Chase or Ryan need a rest or get injured. I will not be convinced Rollins will give up the lead off position...during Charlies remaining time. Expect a major tiff if or when Ryno takes over in the future on this issue. In a way, J-Roll has earned that spot. He has been the straw that stirs the drink and for all his lolly gagging, he still represents this team when he strolls up to that plate (no pun intended).
@Dave Clemens: Ditto. Charlie is probably the most loyal manager and coach this town has ever seen. I respect the man in total for the way he has held this team together for so long, during times when another manager could have lost the team. And after having seen the man manage this team, there is no doubt that Revere will bat second. Either way, some new blood in the clubhouse next February is going to be welcome indeed!— DelawareRiverRat - Typical Rube Panic move.
Fail.— fmMD - the amaro haters are getting really annoying. people forget that this guy built the greatest phillies team of all time, the 2010 phillies. they didn't win the series, but they were twenty times better than the 2008 or 1980 phils— Ryan
- After 3 years in the Majors,Revere has never hit a home run - if Howard is not up to speed - Phillies are scoring very few runs and if Halliday is not pitching - they are down to 2 starters looks like 3rd or 4th place next year— Roswell Greys
