Phillies pay steep price for Revere
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Phillies pay steep price for Revere
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
The Phillies wrapped up the winter meetings by landing a center fielder who they hope will hold down the position for at least the next four years. There are plenty of indications that Ben Revere can be that man. But to acquire him, the Phillies made themselves weaker in the rotation, at least for time being, by sending Vance Worley to the Twins. They also parted with a player who entered the 2012 season as a Top 100 prospect as rated by Baseball America.
So what's the verdict?
As we noted, there are two issues to evaluate in this deal. Clearly, there is a lot to like about Revere. He has the reputation as a defensive whiz, with speed and base-running ability comparable to Michael Bourn, whom the Phillies decided against pursuing on the free agent market because of his asking price. Those abilities alone virtually guarantee that he will be, at the very least, an everyday major leaguer. His arm, according to scouts, is one of the weakest in the game, but in center field that should not be a huge issue. Everybody seems to agree that Revere can play stellar defense at the major league level.
The other characteristic Revere has that convinced the Phillies to pay a premium price is his youth. He does not turn 25 until May 3, and he has just 1 year and 149 days of service, meaning he won't be eligible for arbitration until after 2013 at the earliest. That means that the Phillies will pay their center fielder somewhere in the neighborhood of $515,000 this season, which obviously frees up money to address their other needs.
Other positives:
-Over the last two seasons he has stolen 74 bases while being thrown out just 18 times.
-His batting average, slugging percentage, and on base percentage all increased last year, from .267/.310/.309 to .294/.333/.342.
-He is a contact hitter, striking out in only 9.4 percent of his plate appearances, more than 10 percent better than league average.
-He is regarded as an excellent baserunner. Of the 14 times he has been on first base when a double has been hit, he has scored eight times. And he has scored on second from a single on 32-of-36 opportunities.
-He bunted for a base hit nine times last season.
-Away from pitcher-friendly Target Field, he has a career .297 batting average and .341 on base percentage.
It isn't a stretch of the imagination to see Revere developing as Bourn did, increasing his on base percentage and power to the point where he is a an average-to-slightly-above-average major league hitter, which, when combined with his defense and baserunning, would likely make him a huge bargain for the remainder of his time until club control.
That being said, the Phillies seem to have given up a ton to get Revere. That was my first reaction, and it seems to be pretty universal. While Revere makes plenty of contact, his walk rate and extra base hit rate are well below league average. The walk rate particularly is concerning, because Revere profiles as a leadoff hitter, and you'd like your leadoff hitter to reach base at least 34 percent of the time. If he cannot do that, you'd at least like for him to hit for power. The Phillies are putting a lot of stock in Revere's potential to develop. If Revere does not improve and Worley ends up becoming a middle-of-the-rotation fixture in Minnesota, it will be tough to argue that this trade is a win.
Which brings up the critical part of the equation: who replaces Worley in the rotation? The Phillies clearly plan on addressing the new vacancy on the free agent market. So it is possible that they could end up with an upgrade at the back end of the rotation, particularly when you consider the fact that Worley has never reached 150 innings in a season and struggled a bit with his conditioning last year (and is coming off a tough season that ended with minor elbow surgery). But their first concern is a right-handed power bat, and Michael Young does not count (reports had the Phillies attempting to deal for the Texas infielder, with Young needing to waive his no-trade clause to facilitate it).
I have long advocated Nick Swisher as the guy, but I have not heard anything from anybody that would indicate the Phillies have serious interest in him (Swisher is a switch-hitter, by the way). Josh Hamilton is a left-handed bat. Beyond those two, we drop down to players like Cody Ross and Scott Hairston, both of whom have power, but neither of whom reach base enough to be considered an impact player. Ryan Ludwick had been rumored to be on the verge of signing with the Reds, but apparently that has not happened yet. So he is available. The Phillies could also try to swing another trade.
A lot could depend on what kind of starter they are targeting. It wouldn't surprise me to see them make a play for Ryan Dempster, who has a pretty good relationship with pitching coach Rich Dubee from their time together with the Marlins. He is 36 years old and, reportedly, looking for a three-year deal, but that hasn't always deterred the Phillies in the past. He has experience as a closer too, for what that is worth. The top of the market features Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez and Edwin Jackson, followed by guys like Dempster, Kyle Lohse, Shaun Marcum, Brandon McCarthy and Joe Saunders. It's hard to believe that the Phillies would have enough money to land a Greinke or Sanchez and still have enough to add an impact bat and address the bullpen. But you never know.
Someone like Dempster, Lohse or McCarthy would make a lot of sense, particularly the first two.
Long story short, it is too early to assign a pass/fail mark to this trade. But when you consider the fact that the Nationals gave up one top pitching prospect for Denard Span, who is a vastly more accomplished and talented hitter, you can make an argument that the Phillies might have been better off using Worley to try to build a package for Span.
The question isn't just what did Worley and May land the Phillies in Revere, but what could have it landed them elsewhere?
We'll have to let the offseason play out before judging any further.
@Sam Crow: I like moving Utley to 2 and Young at 3, and unfortunately agree with you that their "big" move for a RH bat to hit 5th will be Cody Ross. I'd have Ruf in LF and Ross in RF vs lefties, though. I also wonder if Cholly will have the stones to move Jimmy down to 6 where he belongs. Also unfortunately, Young is a below average defensive 3rd baseman (.950 fielding % last year) and plays better defense at 2nd, which I'm sure he'll play when Utley is on the DL.— Only in Philly...- I don't think Manuel does have the stones to move Jimmy down in the lineup, unfortunately. And because of this we can't field the most competitive lineup. It's ridiculous and throws everything out of whack. If you move Rollins to the leadoff spot, you would then need to move Revere down to #2 which would shift Utley to #3. This would be counterproductive because it would move Young, who is a good situational hitter, much further down in the lineup. Rollins holds the club hostage. An outfield cache of Ruf, Ross, Mayberry, Revere, Nix and Brown would provide a lot flexibility on any given day (3 righties and 3 lefties).
— Sam Crow - Concerning the steep price, Worley lived with that fastball that would run away from lefthanded hitters, often surprising batters from BOTH sides for stikeouts looking, but if location of the rising fastball wasn't out of the strikezone, he became batting practice...The wildcard is May...a super arm who overthought much of what he was doing (concerning setting up hitters, tinkering with a new changeup) in Reading and fell back some, as other new arms cameinto the brass' sights...most notably Adam Morgan and Ethan Martin, with the always steady Jon Petibone ascending quicker. The Twins NEED arms, and Worley is serviceable, and May has some upside.— bearsfriend
- Not sure what they are thinking with Revere. He sounds like a younger version of Juan Pierre as a hitter, which isn't all bad, but I'm not sure that's what the Phillies were looking for in a Center Fielder.— SteveS11
- So because he did not overpay for older outfielders, Upton and Shane, he is a rube, lets see slightly use and hurt pitcher a 4 or 5 a rookie that has not proven anything for a CF who bated 290 stole 40 bases is a good defensive player, is 24 years old and won't see Free agency for 4 or 5 years looks like a smart deal, I don't consider Worley or Mays a TON good job Ruben— PHILLY76
- I actually like this deal. We still don't know what Worley would have done and this season was a disappointment and raised some flags. Revere finally gives us a leadoff hitter who actually cares about getting on base and igniting rallies instead of trying to hit for the fences and wasting a lot of opportunities like Rollins. To have a pure singles-doubles hitter is pretty rare, so good for Amaro.— echosmyron
- Regarding Revere, you have a guy with just a little over a year's ML experience whoi made just 492k last season, so he's under control....CHEAP....He's a legitimate defender (average arm) who to me, tells me Ruf is truly in the plans for LF (yes!), giving the Phillies the cheapest OF for 2013...maybe allowing them to go in other areas...Adds balance as he's a stolen base threat...Many fans did NOT want the Phillies to go loco offering $15 million on up for either Upton or Bourne, and with Gillies not far along enough, here we are...If Gillies (or eventually Zach Collier) develop, the Phillies now have true speed options coming along...Add the thought of Roman Quinn (fastest human in the system, playing in Lakewood this year at SS), and a new facet may be emerging for the Phightins.— bearsfriend
- Worley was a marginal prospect who took advantage of his opprtunity to pitch in the majors just like Kyle Kendrick a few years before. Good for him. But he can be easily replaced.— zeke128
- Steep Price?...Yea... we'll see if May turns into something other than that this was exactly what the Phillies needed and they stole him from Minnesota. I guess High Cheese needs to rethink this one.— Apollo Creed
- Most of negative comments simply do not understand the economics of baseball nor the future. Revere is basically the same player Michael Bourn is, but strikes out MUCH less, and will be paid MUCH less than a guy like Bourn over the next 4-5 years. Same dude, less cash. Next....Michael Young CAN play 3B. He hasn't due to Adrian Beltre (and who wouldn't play Beltre over Young?). One year of Young is what the Phillies would want, hoping that Cody Ashe/Mikael Franco will be ready for 2014 (one of them). Young can also play some 2B as can Frandsen, so its a better insurance policy for Utley's knees than Freddy "Mendoza line" Galvis. The outfield of Ruf/Revere/Brown is pretty much what you see is what you get. I see RAJ pouncing on a pitcher in the free agent market to replace Sir Vance Alot. Trevor may has been rated high previously, but he didn't excite anyone last year at Reading, where Jonathan Petibone surpassed him and Jesse Biddle will too shortly. Morgan is also waiting in the wings. Like the possible deals so far. Getting Young on board would make these meetings much more successful and well on the way to a good offseason so far. Like I've said SO many times before, never judge the off season until April hits.— drhoffman
- Hey Warbiscuit, are you some disgruntled relative. Why do you even bother if you have that much disdainful felling for the GM. Or is it a secret little girl love affair????
— Mike DP - He maybe fast but this lineup can not move runners. They don 't hit. Makes no sense. Then to go after a 37 yr old 3rd baseman. Wow...you are looking at a last place finish based on what the Nats and Braves accomplished w their upgrades.— 76sixers
- Crazy deal...Revere is a younger version of Juan Pierre who they could have kept and traded nothing for..makes no sense to trade away your #4 starter and your top pitching prospect for what amounts to Juan Pierre??— flyers1000
- "...the Phillies seem to have given up a ton to get Revere. That was my first reaction, and it seems to be pretty universal." Uh, not universal. Am I missing something? Worley is a #4 guy at best. I like him and would have liked to keep him but this makes sense. Also, prospects are just that prospects. Very few are can't miss. And clearly with the drop in performance from one level to the next May is not a can't miss prospect. He may be great one day who knows. But I'll trade a prospect every day over something taht is a known quantity at the MLB level. And in this case adresses a primary need in the lineup. I am still miffed D. Brown was not packaged to get Halladay in '09 after they made the Lee deal (can you say 3 in a row if they had). How foolish do they look now to have what is at best a #4 OF?— homerjay99
- I think if they put Charlie Noggin in the outfield and Peter Pannache on 3rd the Argyles might pull this out. What? It's not 1932?— neddyflanders
