Phillies pay steep price for Revere
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Phillies pay steep price for Revere
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
The Phillies wrapped up the winter meetings by landing a center fielder who they hope will hold down the position for at least the next four years. There are plenty of indications that Ben Revere can be that man. But to acquire him, the Phillies made themselves weaker in the rotation, at least for time being, by sending Vance Worley to the Twins. They also parted with a player who entered the 2012 season as a Top 100 prospect as rated by Baseball America.
So what's the verdict?
As we noted, there are two issues to evaluate in this deal. Clearly, there is a lot to like about Revere. He has the reputation as a defensive whiz, with speed and base-running ability comparable to Michael Bourn, whom the Phillies decided against pursuing on the free agent market because of his asking price. Those abilities alone virtually guarantee that he will be, at the very least, an everyday major leaguer. His arm, according to scouts, is one of the weakest in the game, but in center field that should not be a huge issue. Everybody seems to agree that Revere can play stellar defense at the major league level.
The other characteristic Revere has that convinced the Phillies to pay a premium price is his youth. He does not turn 25 until May 3, and he has just 1 year and 149 days of service, meaning he won't be eligible for arbitration until after 2013 at the earliest. That means that the Phillies will pay their center fielder somewhere in the neighborhood of $515,000 this season, which obviously frees up money to address their other needs.
Other positives:
-Over the last two seasons he has stolen 74 bases while being thrown out just 18 times.
-His batting average, slugging percentage, and on base percentage all increased last year, from .267/.310/.309 to .294/.333/.342.
-He is a contact hitter, striking out in only 9.4 percent of his plate appearances, more than 10 percent better than league average.
-He is regarded as an excellent baserunner. Of the 14 times he has been on first base when a double has been hit, he has scored eight times. And he has scored on second from a single on 32-of-36 opportunities.
-He bunted for a base hit nine times last season.
-Away from pitcher-friendly Target Field, he has a career .297 batting average and .341 on base percentage.
It isn't a stretch of the imagination to see Revere developing as Bourn did, increasing his on base percentage and power to the point where he is a an average-to-slightly-above-average major league hitter, which, when combined with his defense and baserunning, would likely make him a huge bargain for the remainder of his time until club control.
That being said, the Phillies seem to have given up a ton to get Revere. That was my first reaction, and it seems to be pretty universal. While Revere makes plenty of contact, his walk rate and extra base hit rate are well below league average. The walk rate particularly is concerning, because Revere profiles as a leadoff hitter, and you'd like your leadoff hitter to reach base at least 34 percent of the time. If he cannot do that, you'd at least like for him to hit for power. The Phillies are putting a lot of stock in Revere's potential to develop. If Revere does not improve and Worley ends up becoming a middle-of-the-rotation fixture in Minnesota, it will be tough to argue that this trade is a win.
Which brings up the critical part of the equation: who replaces Worley in the rotation? The Phillies clearly plan on addressing the new vacancy on the free agent market. So it is possible that they could end up with an upgrade at the back end of the rotation, particularly when you consider the fact that Worley has never reached 150 innings in a season and struggled a bit with his conditioning last year (and is coming off a tough season that ended with minor elbow surgery). But their first concern is a right-handed power bat, and Michael Young does not count (reports had the Phillies attempting to deal for the Texas infielder, with Young needing to waive his no-trade clause to facilitate it).
I have long advocated Nick Swisher as the guy, but I have not heard anything from anybody that would indicate the Phillies have serious interest in him (Swisher is a switch-hitter, by the way). Josh Hamilton is a left-handed bat. Beyond those two, we drop down to players like Cody Ross and Scott Hairston, both of whom have power, but neither of whom reach base enough to be considered an impact player. Ryan Ludwick had been rumored to be on the verge of signing with the Reds, but apparently that has not happened yet. So he is available. The Phillies could also try to swing another trade.
A lot could depend on what kind of starter they are targeting. It wouldn't surprise me to see them make a play for Ryan Dempster, who has a pretty good relationship with pitching coach Rich Dubee from their time together with the Marlins. He is 36 years old and, reportedly, looking for a three-year deal, but that hasn't always deterred the Phillies in the past. He has experience as a closer too, for what that is worth. The top of the market features Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez and Edwin Jackson, followed by guys like Dempster, Kyle Lohse, Shaun Marcum, Brandon McCarthy and Joe Saunders. It's hard to believe that the Phillies would have enough money to land a Greinke or Sanchez and still have enough to add an impact bat and address the bullpen. But you never know.
Someone like Dempster, Lohse or McCarthy would make a lot of sense, particularly the first two.
Long story short, it is too early to assign a pass/fail mark to this trade. But when you consider the fact that the Nationals gave up one top pitching prospect for Denard Span, who is a vastly more accomplished and talented hitter, you can make an argument that the Phillies might have been better off using Worley to try to build a package for Span.
The question isn't just what did Worley and May land the Phillies in Revere, but what could have it landed them elsewhere?
We'll have to let the offseason play out before judging any further.
- Bravo. The lament over lost prospects is neverending as is the intense anger at Amaro, but keep in mind, much of it comes from one extremely annoying and over-the-top poster. My only concern with the deal relates to Tyson Gillies, now blocked in center, admittedly another prospect and one oft injured, but clearly talented and seeming to finally mature into an everyday centerfielder.
— chuckw - All I have to say is wait till you see him play! He is fun to watch, especially when he makes ridiculous catches in the OF and draws the attention of the pitcher away from the batter due to his ability to steal pretty much when he wants to. I live in MN, the reason the Twins traded Span is due to Revere and the Only way the Twins would part with Revere is if they got something like this in return.
I think in due time Revere will make this a good trade if not excellent trade on your GMs part. Just give the soon to be 25 year old a chance, he's young and cheap for a while. He'll save more runs than he gives up on D— callmestupid - I think this is shaping up to be a good winter by Amaro. Michael Young is a proven veteran who can play 3B, 2B and SS. He’s a contact hitter who understands situational hitting. I’m familiar with him as I’ve followed the Rangers closely after living in Big D in ‘11, and I can tell you that YOUNG is the heart and soul of the Rangers- more so than Kinsler or even Hamilton. He’s a leader and a gamer and will be a great presence in the Phillies lineup. I think he would make a great three-hole hitter sandwiched between Utley #2 and Howard #4. His defense is above average, too; he won a GG at SS in ‘08.
I was hoping Amaro would sign Scutaro to fill the super utility role but landing MY is even better because it’s cheaper, for less years and Young is even younger than Scutaro. With Revere and Mayberry as a potential platoon in CF, and with this trade for Young, we HAVE officially improved, especially if Amaro can sign Cody Ross to solidify the OF with another RH power bat. I’m giving some major props to RAJ so far…
Potential opening day lineup:
1) B. Revere - CF
2) C. Utley - 2B
3) M. Young - 3B
4) R. Howard - 1B
5) C. Ross - LF
6) J. Rollins - SS
7) J. Mayberry/D. Brown - RF
8) E. Kratz - C
9) C. Hamels - P
— Sam Crow - Warbiscuit and 46 and 2 - If we end up winning the WS, please do not attend the parade. We don't need doomsdayers standing on the corner trying to ruin our fun.— Bruno Sammartino
- A better question is what could Rube have gotten for Worley and May last year at this time? He traded two players who had down years, when they probably had a lot more value a year ago. Also - @Exiled - Michael Young is anything but a bona-fide 3B these days.— dankil13
- who cares, baseball is soooooooo boring
— pieman - If it's soooooooo boring to watch, why are you here reading about it? Just like to see your writing in print?
- Centerfield defense is not particularly important. All you need is someone to make routine plays. When Victorino was winning Gold Gloves in center, this did not mean additional victories. Worley was cheap, now the Phillies have to spend major free agent bucks to replace him. Money that could have been spent on the problematic bullpen.— Freedom Fries
- We are still deep with pitching, Centerfielders, not so much..this guy is young, fast, and cheap..I'd say it was a very good trade— TexasYankee
- What was this alternate universe where May had this amazing season that everyone else was in?
In the universe I was in, May's stock was plummeting.— cloudkitt - http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16201 — 46 and 2
- only in loser-delphia can a g.m. turn a defending championship team into a 3rd place .500 team with one of the highest budgets in the league, continue to get significantly worse with no efforts at filling basic needs, and still have moronic fans act as if he must have some "plan" ....his smug arogance is a cover for his complete incompetence and cluelessness— warbiscuit
- how to run a business, Rube style: pay top dollar --more than value --for any acquisition; sell anything you have for nothing..imbecile hasn't made single "good" deal since he lucked into Lee from Cleveland— warbiscuit
- yes Victorino and Pence were infinitely better than this nobody...Phillies lost when they had Vic and Pence because they were woefully inadequate in a lineup that was mediocre or poor at just about every spot, now they are even worse.. a pitiful team with only 2 good players on entire 40-man roster (hamels, Lee), shaped by a complete imbecile who has turned a chamnpionship caliber team into a losing team with no present or future— warbiscuit
- May just spent last year getting rocked by AA hitting and has seen his minor league ERA hovering around 4.00 for the last 3 years. Worley was never a highly-touted prospect who just finished a 6-9/4.20 season and had elbow surgery.
I don't know what your definition of "steep price" is to acquire a promising young player of Revere's caliber, but let's stop pretending like we just gave up Maddux and Glavine shall we
