Phillies pay steep price for Revere
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Phillies pay steep price for Revere
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
The Phillies wrapped up the winter meetings by landing a center fielder who they hope will hold down the position for at least the next four years. There are plenty of indications that Ben Revere can be that man. But to acquire him, the Phillies made themselves weaker in the rotation, at least for time being, by sending Vance Worley to the Twins. They also parted with a player who entered the 2012 season as a Top 100 prospect as rated by Baseball America.
So what's the verdict?
As we noted, there are two issues to evaluate in this deal. Clearly, there is a lot to like about Revere. He has the reputation as a defensive whiz, with speed and base-running ability comparable to Michael Bourn, whom the Phillies decided against pursuing on the free agent market because of his asking price. Those abilities alone virtually guarantee that he will be, at the very least, an everyday major leaguer. His arm, according to scouts, is one of the weakest in the game, but in center field that should not be a huge issue. Everybody seems to agree that Revere can play stellar defense at the major league level.
The other characteristic Revere has that convinced the Phillies to pay a premium price is his youth. He does not turn 25 until May 3, and he has just 1 year and 149 days of service, meaning he won't be eligible for arbitration until after 2013 at the earliest. That means that the Phillies will pay their center fielder somewhere in the neighborhood of $515,000 this season, which obviously frees up money to address their other needs.
Other positives:
-Over the last two seasons he has stolen 74 bases while being thrown out just 18 times.
-His batting average, slugging percentage, and on base percentage all increased last year, from .267/.310/.309 to .294/.333/.342.
-He is a contact hitter, striking out in only 9.4 percent of his plate appearances, more than 10 percent better than league average.
-He is regarded as an excellent baserunner. Of the 14 times he has been on first base when a double has been hit, he has scored eight times. And he has scored on second from a single on 32-of-36 opportunities.
-He bunted for a base hit nine times last season.
-Away from pitcher-friendly Target Field, he has a career .297 batting average and .341 on base percentage.
It isn't a stretch of the imagination to see Revere developing as Bourn did, increasing his on base percentage and power to the point where he is a an average-to-slightly-above-average major league hitter, which, when combined with his defense and baserunning, would likely make him a huge bargain for the remainder of his time until club control.
That being said, the Phillies seem to have given up a ton to get Revere. That was my first reaction, and it seems to be pretty universal. While Revere makes plenty of contact, his walk rate and extra base hit rate are well below league average. The walk rate particularly is concerning, because Revere profiles as a leadoff hitter, and you'd like your leadoff hitter to reach base at least 34 percent of the time. If he cannot do that, you'd at least like for him to hit for power. The Phillies are putting a lot of stock in Revere's potential to develop. If Revere does not improve and Worley ends up becoming a middle-of-the-rotation fixture in Minnesota, it will be tough to argue that this trade is a win.
Which brings up the critical part of the equation: who replaces Worley in the rotation? The Phillies clearly plan on addressing the new vacancy on the free agent market. So it is possible that they could end up with an upgrade at the back end of the rotation, particularly when you consider the fact that Worley has never reached 150 innings in a season and struggled a bit with his conditioning last year (and is coming off a tough season that ended with minor elbow surgery). But their first concern is a right-handed power bat, and Michael Young does not count (reports had the Phillies attempting to deal for the Texas infielder, with Young needing to waive his no-trade clause to facilitate it).
I have long advocated Nick Swisher as the guy, but I have not heard anything from anybody that would indicate the Phillies have serious interest in him (Swisher is a switch-hitter, by the way). Josh Hamilton is a left-handed bat. Beyond those two, we drop down to players like Cody Ross and Scott Hairston, both of whom have power, but neither of whom reach base enough to be considered an impact player. Ryan Ludwick had been rumored to be on the verge of signing with the Reds, but apparently that has not happened yet. So he is available. The Phillies could also try to swing another trade.
A lot could depend on what kind of starter they are targeting. It wouldn't surprise me to see them make a play for Ryan Dempster, who has a pretty good relationship with pitching coach Rich Dubee from their time together with the Marlins. He is 36 years old and, reportedly, looking for a three-year deal, but that hasn't always deterred the Phillies in the past. He has experience as a closer too, for what that is worth. The top of the market features Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez and Edwin Jackson, followed by guys like Dempster, Kyle Lohse, Shaun Marcum, Brandon McCarthy and Joe Saunders. It's hard to believe that the Phillies would have enough money to land a Greinke or Sanchez and still have enough to add an impact bat and address the bullpen. But you never know.
Someone like Dempster, Lohse or McCarthy would make a lot of sense, particularly the first two.
Long story short, it is too early to assign a pass/fail mark to this trade. But when you consider the fact that the Nationals gave up one top pitching prospect for Denard Span, who is a vastly more accomplished and talented hitter, you can make an argument that the Phillies might have been better off using Worley to try to build a package for Span.
The question isn't just what did Worley and May land the Phillies in Revere, but what could have it landed them elsewhere?
We'll have to let the offseason play out before judging any further.
Hey Murph :
Overall -- assuming Michael Young hears positives from Cliff Lee and/or Roy Oswalt and says 'yes' -- If Ruben comes home with Revere and Young, we've got a bona-fide CF and an bona-fide everyday 3B who can fill in for anyone else in the infield who may go down, one a lead-off guy replacing an aging JRoll, and one a needed righty bat, and giving up Worley, May, and let's say, likely Schwimmer, and all the Phils have to pay for Young for 2013 is about 5 or 6 MM, Ruben's done well.- Your definition of bona-fide everyday 3B is different than mine. He had a negative WAR last year. And an average WAR of around 2 before that. They'd be better off using you and saving $6m, vs. getting yet another overpaid, aging, slow third baseman with no power. — PhillyPhan4for4
- Cluelss Rube traded away outfielders with much better resumes and much more valuable (Pence, Victorino) for literlaly nothing, and then trades away assets for another outfielder who is barely servicable and less valuable than what he gave away...considering how expensive outfielders are this winter, if instead of trading Pence for close to absolutely nothing last July, is there anyone outside of the Clueless Rube who couldn't get more for Pence this winter than a double A .250 hitting non-prospect? once again the imbecile shows how to destroy a franchise by overpaying by 200 to 500% in cash or prospects for what he thinks he needs, and getting only useless trash when he discards something or tries to get something cheap— warbiscuit
- What a dope. Not Ruben, warbunny. Pence sucked. Worley is a so-so pitcher, May, for being some top prospect, has been in the minors for five years. How hot is that? Good job done. — mike l
- biscuit, how are you always the first or second comment? what do you do with your life? refresh philly.com's page every 5 seconds all day?
— AlexSp - Can you please give it a rest? Every single article about the Phillies is IMMEDIATELY followed by your idiotic "Clueless Rube" shtick. Your knowledge of baseball is negligible, but even that would be OK if you didn't just beat the same tired, stupid drum day after day after day. Just do us all a favor and STFU.
— 1980 - Rube is the rube who got fleeced by a used car salesman. He just gave up a major league established arm AND their TOP prospect for a ground ball slap hitter who is an awesome corner fielder (with a weak arm)? Revere, is suspect in CF (look at his UZR while playing CF) and doesn't have much of an OBP. The kid is going to slide into the #2 spot but giving their TOP prospect for him? And Worley. He got swindled.— 46 and 2
- Worley is a so-so pitcher, May, for being some top prospect, has been in the minors for five years. How hot is that? Hey, Domonic Brown was considered one of the top three prospects by all of MLB. How good is he? Worley, what Cy young did he win and how will he be after elbow surgery? Love you gashouse managers. — mike l
- Revere can't hit lefties. He has good D and can steal bases, that's about it. Could they have gotten someone better for the price that they paid? — 46 and 2
- May's stock was falling like a stone and Worley has been hugely overrated in Philadelphia. Also, you will see over the next couple years Revere is actually better player than Span.— JBS67
- http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/phillies-pay-premium-for-ben-revere/ — 46 and 2
- The bottom line conclusion at FanGraphs is basically my feeling: Fair deal had it been for Worley alone but the Phillies overpaid by throwing May in.
One way to compensate would be to throw money at a starting pitcher who's a clear upgrade over Worley.— s - When will the same OLE laments over prospects ever end . If you really wanna complain about something why not complain about the former Scouting director who signed so many highly ranked but now traded former prospects. None of these so called "Lost Gems" has done anything anywhere to write home about,period! As for the Vanimal, he basically ate his way out of Philly and from what I saw and heard from him he let his clippings go to his head. The verdict is always out on any deal but the complainers never like any move and the hate for Amaro has nothing to do with his competence as a GM and it never has been and most know why he generates so much over the top hatred. It has nothing to do with BB at all.
— DUDESKINS - I don't hate the GM. I just think he overpaid. That seems to be the consensus among most writers so far. If nothing else, May could have been a trade chip to be used elsewhere. And Span for a minor league prospect makes it look worse. Two factors that probably played in: Span makes a lot more money and the Twins took less just to unload some salary. Worley was worth less than we could have gotten this time last year due to his sub-par year and elbow surgery.
It is what it is. We just have to see how Revere pans out now. And the Phillies have to make more moves. I'm most curious how RAJ fills out the rotation. Going into the season with Kendrick/Cloyd as your 4/5 is not helping the odds of any World Series run.— s
