Phillies going Young. . .in name only?
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Phillies going Young. . .in name only?
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
As always, the wisdom of any trade for Michael Young, which the Dallas Morning News reports is in advanced stages, will depend entirely on two key details: the salary the Phillies are taking on, and the talent with which they are parting. According to Rangers beat writer Evan Grant, the Rangers would assume more than half of $16 million. For the trade to make much sense from the Phillies perspective, they would likely have to eat WELL more than half, as any salary approaching $8 million for a player who hit .277/.312/.370 in 651 plate appearances simply would not make sense, especially if a free agent like Kevin Youkilis could be had for the one-year, $12 million contract that the Yankees have reportedly offered him.
As for the talent departing, I can't imagine it would be much more than a B.J. Rosenberg or Michael Schwimer type, although if the Rangers eat all of the salary that might change.
Now that we have all of those caveats out of the way. . .
In a vacuum -- that is, without consideration for the cost of acquiring and paying Young -- the move makes sense for two reasons. The first is the obivous one: the Phillies simply do not have many good options to man the hot corner. Young is hardly known for his defense anymore. He started 25 games at third base in 2012 and 39 the year before. The last season he played the position regularly was 2010, when he started 155 games.
But the Phillies already feel like they have a solid defensive option in Freddy Galvis. Look at him as the fallback plan. If Young were to show that he can't play the position defensively, then they could always revert to Galvis.
But the Phillies have to diversify their offensive options at the position. Even in the worst year of his career, Young's numbers still dwarfed the ones Galvis posted as a rookie second baseman: Batting average (Young .277, Galvis .226), On Base Percentage (Young .312, Galvis .254), Slugging percentage (Young .370, Galvis .363). And while Young hit just .257/.291/.352 against right-handed pitching, Galvis hit just .208/.231/.331.
The Phillies did sign Kevin Frandsen to an $850,000 contract, but he has many of the same questions as young, particularly on defense. While Frandsen his .338/.383/.451 in 2012, he did so in only 210 plate appearances. For his career, Frandsen is a .267/.322/.364 hitter. In other words, Frandsen's career numbers are similar to the ones Young posted in the worst year of his career.
It is hardly a perfect situation at the hot corner, particularly because the Phillies would have three options who all are far better against left-handed pitching than right-handed pitching. On that note, Young did hit .331/.371/.423 against lefties last year, which is much better than either Galvis or Frandsen did.
The second thing you have to consider is Young's ability to play second base. In fact, at the right price, acquiring him to provide some insurance behind Chase Utley might make sense all by itself. Again, those numbers that Galvis posted last year came almost entirely at second base when Utley was missing for the first two months of the season. As good as Galvis was defensively, the drop off in production at the plate between him and Utley was one of the big reasons why the Phillies couldn't seem to buy a run for their pitchers the first couple months of the season.
I would not be surprised if the Phillies are exploring this deal knowing full well that Michael Young might not be an everyday third baseman anymore. But if they figure he can get at-bats at second base against lefties to give Utley a rest, as well as first base to give Ryan Howard a rest, and get the rest of those at bats at third base, he could cobble together 400-500 plate appearances. Of course, that would require Charlie Manuel to rest Utley and Ryan Howard against some lefties, something he has been reluctant to do in the past.
And we haven't even mentioned the upside, which is that Young was still a pretty good hitter as recently as 2010 and 2011. He will be 36 in 2013, but you never know.
Again, this all comes down to the money that the Phillies will end up paying, and whether that money makes more sense than the money they would have had to pay Youkilis, or the money it would have cost to convince Jeff Keppinger not to take a three-year, $12 million deal from the White Sox.
- Major upgrade from the garbage the Phils have now. He was DH because Tex has 3 younger players who play that position as well and they have Olt coming up too. You're a dope too.
— kozykoz26 - I like the player. I would put Scwimmer on a flight in first class to make it happen.— Relocator
- I'd take Young for $8m and the loss of Schwimer.— everydayguy
- My argument would be that defensively and certainly based on last year, Frandsen is ahead of Young now. I would have liked to have had Young 4-5 years ago. Not sure about now.— Mark1npt
- What's taking him this long?.... He'll play 150 games this year w/ Phils, more if he wants to. Lee and / or Oswalt should have said, "go ahead, Philly is great." Could it be Mrs. Young doesn't want to move?
- You gotta wonder.....
1. Does obtaining Revere mean the organization has given up on Gillies as a ML capable OF'er?
2. Does getting a cheap CF (Revere) and a 3rd baseman relatively cheap (Young), mean that the Phils are in the hunt for a big time player with a big time contract? Grienke? Hamilton? or a trade for Cudyyer or Willingham? Or is Ruf the righty hitting power guy in the 5 spot in the order?— Mark1npt - Worried that Phils might be offering Justin De Fratus in the Young trade. That would turn me against the trade. There are so many reasons for the Rangers to want to move Young to a team that will pick up $ 6- 8 M of the money owed him. For that it's all bout appearances since they can't trade Young for a stack of dimes. But the Phils need to keep their most effective relievers such as De Fratus and Horst. Amaro needs to hold the line and include Lindblom or Schwimer or Rosenberg and then a prospect like Rodriguez or Ramirez, not more.— Claudio Vernight
- Young brings actual DH experience for all of those inter-league games too.— burholme
- How can .277 be a bad batting average, paying less than $16M, when we pay a guy who hits .230 a total of $25M, and he strikes out 175 times every year and cannot hit a ball thrown by my mother, who throws left-handed.— 4thand10
- it's not fantasy baseball— dwilly
- Kool, wouldn't Ruf be the power hitter behind Howard?— Eagle_1960
- Obviously the Phillies, who know more than anyone writing these comments, think Young can do an adequate job at third base. Its his potential offensive that they need. Polanco was paid 6.4M in 2012, so is 8M for Young out of the question? As for a relief pitcher we would need to give up, I could make a substantial list of dreck pitchers we had last year. Let Texas have one, two or four or five of them. I would take my chances with Young over Youkilis.— lefty27
- he won't waive the no-trade so this won't happen. move on.— kearnjo
- Hoprfully Young will not give up his no trde rights and the Phil's can continue the trade talk with Rangers on obtaining Mike Olt, he should be our real target instead of a 36 year old retread. We have the needs of Rangers, lets make a deal.— Philvegas
- Stan the Man batted .330 at the age of 41, after having a couple of subpar years in his late 30s. And Chipper hit .287 last year at 40. Great hitters can still deliver in their late 30s. Not saying Young will, but it's a good risk. What other options are out there?
The Phillies real problems are at 1st and 2nd. When power hitters begin to decline, they don't come back. But Howard still seems to have a knack for getting base hits with risp. So we can hope. Ruf should play until he proves that he can't.
The pitching staff is old. Letting Worley go was a mistake. With the elbow problem taken care of, he's good for 17-18 wins. He'll be missed.
The Phillies look like a third place team again. Maybe a few games over .500.— WallStreetExaminer
