Phillies outfield options dwindling
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Phillies outfield options dwindling
Ryan Lawrence, Daily News Staff Writer
On Saturday, Cody Ross found a new home. The well-traveled, useful, righthanded-hitting outfielder signed a 3-year, $26 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Less than 24 hours later, fellow free agent Nick Swisher also came off the market.
The Cleveland Indians signed Swisher, a switch hitter with power and a strong plate discipline, to a 4-year, $56 million deal. The contract includes a vesting option that can push the contract to 5-years, $70 million.
Michael Bourn is the only high-profile free agent bat that remains unsigned. He is not a fit for the Phillies.
So where do the Phils go from here? Are they really going to run out an outfield platoon of Domonic Brown and John Mayberry Jr. in rightfield and Darin Ruf and Laynce Nix in left?
I still have serious doubts about that, considering the Phils have been burned in each of the last two years by having too much faith in uncertain commodities in the corner spots (rightfield in 2011, left in 2012).
But here’s what we do know: the price of outfielders is sky high.
Here’s a sampling of the (guaranteed) dollars committed to free agent outfielders this winter:
Swisher: 4 years, $56 million
Ross: 3 years, $26 million
Josh Hamilton: 5 years, $123 million (Angels)
B.J. Upton: 5 years, $75.25 million (Braves)
Shane Victorino: 3 years, $39 million (Red Sox)
Angel Pagan: 4 years, $40 million (Giants)
Melky Cabrera: 2 years, $16 million (Blue Jays)
Torii Hunter: 2 years, $26 million (Tigers)
Ryan Ludwick: 2 years, $15 million (Reds)
The Phils obviously did not feel comfortable with most or all of those numbers. (They were reportedly outbid by $20 million by the Braves for Upton).
In an offseason that began with the Phils without a single, everyday outfielder, they’ve added one in the first seven weeks of the offseason: center fielder Ben Revere.
Revere, of course, was acquired in a trade. Since all of the above players are free agents, it’s worth remembering that just because that market has dried up, the Phils can still trade for an impact, outfield bat.
But before you begin dreaming up an idea of Justin Upton – he really is the perfect candidate, young, righthanded with power and speed, team-friendly contract – let’s remember the price the Phils had to pay for Revere.
The Phils dealt their two big trade chips for Revere: Vance Worley and Trevor May.
Revere was probably no higher than fourth or fifth in the Phils’ list of preferable center field options. So let’s assume they offered a similar package to Colorado for Dexter Fowler and were turned down; it’s a reasonable assumption since Fowler can be had in a trade and the Rockies want pitching back.
If a package centered around May and Worley wouldn’t get you Fowler, how much would a guy like Upton cost? A lot.
Not only are free agents cashing in this winter, but so are teams that are selling off proven parts.
The Mets traded 38-year-old pitcher R.A. Dickey, the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, to Toronto for a lucrative package led by former Phils prospect Travis D’Arnaud, baseball’s top catching prospect, and righthanded pitcher Noah Syndergaard. They were ranked the No.1 and No.2 prospects in the Jays’ system by Baseball Prospectus earlier this month.
The Rays traded pitchers James Shields and Wade Davis for an ever more lucrative package, headlined by outfielder Wil Myers, one of if not the top hitting prospects in all of baseball.
So if a team wants to swing a deal for the 25-year-old Upton, who is owed $38.5 million in the next three seasons, they better be prepared to unload the farm. After signing Ross, there has been speculation that Upton, the on-again, off-again human trade rumor, could be had in a trade; ditto his teammate, lefthanded hitting Jason Kubel.
It’s all about supply and demand; since more than a handful of teams would love to add Upton (Texas has both a bounty of top prospects and the need for an impact outfielder), the Diamondbacks could probably name their price and get it, too.
Would you deal Jesse Biddle for Upton? How about Biddle and Tommy Joseph? I imagine you're not as excited about the idea of Upton now.
Even a deal for the lesser bats on the trade market would be costly.
If the Rockies are asking the world for Fowler, you’d imagine they’re not going to unload his teammate, Michael Cuddyer, for middling prospects or Triple-A arms. Ditto the D-backs and Kubel.
Add the fact that the Phils have already depleted some of their trade chips in making two deals this month (for Revere and Michael Young) and it’s difficult to imagine them swinging a deal for a high-profile bat. Then again, it’s never a good idea to bet against Ruben Amaro Jr.
But given the cost of outfielders this winter – both on the free agent and trade markets – it might be a good idea to set yourself up for another low-risk, high-reward-type addition.
The Phils have already gone that route a few times this winter.
Here’s a name like that I might consider, so long as he can still play 7 innings a game in the outfield: Lance Berkman.
Yes his health has been a serious issue recently, but he did hit .301 with a .412 OBP, .959 OPS, 31 home runs and 94 RBI in 145 games with St. Louis in 2011 as an outfielder. He would surely come cheap.
No, Berkman, who turns 37 in February, is nowhere near the perfect solution in the outfield. But there are no perfect solutions remaining and, if he’s healthy, he’s an upgrade over what your current corner outfielders.
But that’s just a random name I’m throwing out there. Because at this point in the winter, that’s really all that’s left on the outfield market.
- Career numbers:
Hairston: .247/.302/.449
Mayberry: .254/.313/.448
Mayberry's 3.5 years younger than Hairston and probably costs 15% or less than what Hairston will get.
I guess the other guy's Hairston always looks greener or something.— s - Before Ruben throws away any more farm pups for players with a shelf expiration tag on their shoulders, its about time he just bags it and gives Brown and Ruff a chance, especially since the Phils are NOT going anywere next year, lets face it. unless they luck out in the wild card, their short dynasty is over, thanks to the reckless trades and farm depletion of Ruben the GM which stands for General Moron. If this is truly an transition year, than lets ALLOW the transition to happen. 2013 is the year to let Brown and Ruff roam the corners and see what happens. What is there to lose?.....the world series? Wake up:-)— daystrum
- I'm not going to throw in the towel and say they're going nowhere. Pitching is the big potential difference maker. But the other point is a guy like Hairston isn't the difference between getting to the trade deadline in contention or not. And signing a guy like that is almost guaranteed to take time away from Ruf and Brown -- maybe even have Ruf start off in AAA. So I agree here: Let those two take you to the trade deadline and make decisions then. You have Nix and Mayberry to take on some of the at bats.
If they don't believe in Brown they should get on with it and trade him and work another trade to get his replacement.— s - I would add this: The whole reason we're in this situation is they're still hedging on Brown and Mayberry. Part of the problem there is neither guy got the reps he should have while they both had options left. Look at a guy like Revere. He was a first round pick so that's a difference but he got around 500 AB's each of his first two years in the majors. It wasn't until last year that Mayberry got over 400 AB's. Brown has yet to get 200 AB's and he's out of options. Charlie is probably the guy to blame most for the outfield situation we're in. Had he let those guys fully play it out earlier and not yanked them around and sat them at the first sign of a normal young player slump, we'd either have players we could count on or they would have been traded before it got to this point.
— s - Agree one million percent.
— zubzub - Why ignore the possibility that Amaro might get Soriano and cash from the Cubs? He can still hit, and he is RH.— laser5
- warbiscuit, you should temper your optimism and happiness just a bit! You're all filled with bubbling enthusiasm for the Phillies! It's not as if the Phillies haven't had their share of success over the course of the past 5 years! Do you know how horrible it was being a Phillies' fan from the mid 80's until 2008 (except for the 1 freak season in 1993)?— drjimmy
- Maybe it would have been a good idea to be able to better compare salaries which vary by both total dollars and contract duration, to provide a dollars per year value.— Bobphxville
- s, In 2012, Mayberry had 479 plate appearances in which he had 14 homers, 46 RBIs, a .245 BA and .695 OPS. In 2012, Hairston had 398 plate appearances in which he had 20 homers, 57 RBIs, a .263 BA and .803 OPS. Even though their lifetime stats may be closer, the player with the more impressive 2012 stats was clearly Hairston. Scott Hairston is not the first guy I would have targeted as my new outfielder. Soriano, who is still avaiable, would still be a better choice if the Phils could ascertain that either he or Ruf are able and willing to play right field. I have absolutley no doubt that Soriano can. The question is, will he? If he will, the choice is simple, and the Phils can forget about Hairston. But if Soriano won't play right field and Ruf can't, Hairston is the only remaining power-hitting right-handed outfielder left for the Phils to acquire. Wells has also been mentioned, but that unlikely and unrealistic possibility is not even worth discussing. Soriano is still a better choice than Hairston because he has much better offensive numbers and is an everyday player. Hairston is a platoon player who will probably only start games when lefties are pitching. When righties are starting, either Brown or Nix will probably start and neither of these guys has Hairston's offensive numbers or Soriano's. So every day with Soriano is much better than games split between Hairston and Brown or Nix. Finally, the Phils would only have to pay Soriano $5 million a year for two years. Hairston is evidently asking for similar money for three years. At these prices, Soriano is a bargain while Hairston would be an expensive platoon player. Amaro could surprise everyone and land Stanton or Cespedes, but this remains unlikely. So, in the world of likely, it is likely Amaro will acquire another outfielder who will likely be either Soriano or Hairston. It's likely either acquisition will help the team, and even more likely many fans will complain - no matter who the Phils acquire.— onthebucks
- I agree that for 2012 Hairston clearly wins. But I also think it's unlikely he has another 2012. His best years were really around 2008-2009 when, coincidentally he was around Mayberry's age. A 32 year old is most likely on his way down where as a 29 year old like Mayberry probably still has some ceiling left even if he has been inconsistent. Throw in the marginal difference in power numbers, Mayberry's versatily and (usually) better defense, and his low cost and I'll pass on Hairston. I just don't see how Hairston over Mayberry results in more than 1-3 wins before the trade deadline. Also, to beat the point to death: Unless someone's traded, any FA outfielder pick-up likely results in Ruf seeing some AAA time. — s
- Observations after a day away:
1. Copper34 writes and sounds just like Warbiscuit. Methinks Warbiscuit has created a second handle: Copper34.
2. s: You're heavily invested in Ruf. Love the kid, like his power, hope you're right. But until last year, he never hit more than 17 home runs in a year anywhere in his life. And we've not really seen him play left field at the Major League level. You're all in; I'm uncertain, at least to start the 2013 season.
3. The Ross and Swisher signings are immaterial. We have $8 million to stay under the cap and everyone knew Swisher would command much more, plus a No. 1 draft pick. When guys like Victorino started getting $13 million, it was clear Ross would get too much too.
3. I'm fine with adding Hairston, even on a two-year deal, because he is a proven, if just decent, Major League commodity. I'm sorry but Brown and Ruf are not. Saying no to Hairston means giving left field, at least in a platoon situation, to a promising hitter from Nebraska who has played virtually no left field: Ruf.
4. Finally, we are contenders if Utley and Howard are even 80% of their previous selves. Which is why Amaro will work a deal, probably for Soriano to play left field. Ruf will start at AAA to get left-field reps but not for long if he continues to hit.
5. Presuming Hamels, Lee and Halladay are reasonably healthy, I see 85-87 wins in 2013.— eman - I'm actually not all in on Ruf. I have reservations about his defense and I think he's suspect to breaking balls. However, why embark on yet another Mayberry/Brown journey with the guy, where we never quite give him enough time and patience to see what he really has? If the Phillies think he has something, let him show it to the trade deadline. He's 26 years old. Fish or cut bait.
We have Mayberry and Nix to take reps in LF. If they're so bad, for God's sake, trade them and be done with it.
I agree on Howard and Utley. And pitching alone can carry us to the trade deadline if it's up to snuff.— s - eman, You make a lot of good points. I'd consider this, however. Ruf is unlike many young flash-in-the-pan kids who look like the end of the world one minute and then make you wonder what you ever saw in them. brown was like that last season. For a week or so, he looked like everything everybody had ever said and, after that, he looked like the same old ineffective Domonic Brown everyone remembered. Ruf is special. He's the real deal and, at the age of 26, he's not your typical minor leaguer. He has some smarts about him and he knows what's at stake. He's your everyday left fielder. Also consider that Soriano and Ruf could play together in the same lineup. One has to play right field and there's no doubt in my mind Soriano could in a heart beat. I wonder if anyone from the Phils has asked Soriano, his representative, or someone from the Cubs if Soriano would be agreeable to playing right field. Ruf could also play in the same lineup with Hairston and Brown or Nix. I doubt both brown and Nix will ever be used in a double outfield platoon for the Phils. I like your comments about the Phils needing Howard and Utley to be at 80% of optimal to be successful, but I think they'll be closer to normal than most people think this year. I look for Hoard to be Comeback Player of the Year. I think Halladay, Lee and Hamels will also have great years. All this having been said, I look for the Phils to win closer to 100 games than the 85 you're predicting. We'll see. With or without an additional outfielder, the Phils are a much better team now than they were at the end of last season. I look for Mayberry to have a very good year in 2013, and I hope there is some way for him to have that kind of year in a Phillies uniform, regardless of any future acquisitions.— onthebucks
- What's funny is both Brown and Ruf were 20th round picks. Brown just came with hype. I still think he could show us something but I also think the Phillies may have blown it with the guy. They had a shot to trade him when his value was sky high and they had numerous shots to show him they believed he could be an everyday player. They blew it on both fronts. Brown strikes me as the type of player who ends up an all-star somewhere else. Mayberry to me is a guy who shows flashes and disappoints on the consistency side but is always a capable backup regardless. He's been a decent pinch hitter and can play several defensive positions well. Brown, to me, is either going to be a starter or be a bust.— s
- eman: "Copper34 writes and sounds just like Warbiscuit. Methinks Warbiscuit has created a second handle"
and I think that eman obviously is as brainless in his ability to recognize "writing" and "sounding" style as he is in his inability to express an intelligent baseball thought ... copper seems on board with my Rube analysis, but if you're read anything I've ever posted, you'd know that I don't give generally assign derogatory nicknames to the players (with the exception of Papelbum) and actually spent much of last summer defending Rollins (so no I don't use the term "JStroll")-- my point is not to discuss my differences wiht copper but to just to point out again how apologists for Cluless Rube prove what imbeciles they are in so many other ways --eman, you are an imbecile— warbiscuit
