Phillies outfield options dwindling
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Phillies outfield options dwindling
Ryan Lawrence, Daily News Staff Writer
On Saturday, Cody Ross found a new home. The well-traveled, useful, righthanded-hitting outfielder signed a 3-year, $26 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Less than 24 hours later, fellow free agent Nick Swisher also came off the market.
The Cleveland Indians signed Swisher, a switch hitter with power and a strong plate discipline, to a 4-year, $56 million deal. The contract includes a vesting option that can push the contract to 5-years, $70 million.
Michael Bourn is the only high-profile free agent bat that remains unsigned. He is not a fit for the Phillies.
So where do the Phils go from here? Are they really going to run out an outfield platoon of Domonic Brown and John Mayberry Jr. in rightfield and Darin Ruf and Laynce Nix in left?
I still have serious doubts about that, considering the Phils have been burned in each of the last two years by having too much faith in uncertain commodities in the corner spots (rightfield in 2011, left in 2012).
But here’s what we do know: the price of outfielders is sky high.
Here’s a sampling of the (guaranteed) dollars committed to free agent outfielders this winter:
Swisher: 4 years, $56 million
Ross: 3 years, $26 million
Josh Hamilton: 5 years, $123 million (Angels)
B.J. Upton: 5 years, $75.25 million (Braves)
Shane Victorino: 3 years, $39 million (Red Sox)
Angel Pagan: 4 years, $40 million (Giants)
Melky Cabrera: 2 years, $16 million (Blue Jays)
Torii Hunter: 2 years, $26 million (Tigers)
Ryan Ludwick: 2 years, $15 million (Reds)
The Phils obviously did not feel comfortable with most or all of those numbers. (They were reportedly outbid by $20 million by the Braves for Upton).
In an offseason that began with the Phils without a single, everyday outfielder, they’ve added one in the first seven weeks of the offseason: center fielder Ben Revere.
Revere, of course, was acquired in a trade. Since all of the above players are free agents, it’s worth remembering that just because that market has dried up, the Phils can still trade for an impact, outfield bat.
But before you begin dreaming up an idea of Justin Upton – he really is the perfect candidate, young, righthanded with power and speed, team-friendly contract – let’s remember the price the Phils had to pay for Revere.
The Phils dealt their two big trade chips for Revere: Vance Worley and Trevor May.
Revere was probably no higher than fourth or fifth in the Phils’ list of preferable center field options. So let’s assume they offered a similar package to Colorado for Dexter Fowler and were turned down; it’s a reasonable assumption since Fowler can be had in a trade and the Rockies want pitching back.
If a package centered around May and Worley wouldn’t get you Fowler, how much would a guy like Upton cost? A lot.
Not only are free agents cashing in this winter, but so are teams that are selling off proven parts.
The Mets traded 38-year-old pitcher R.A. Dickey, the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, to Toronto for a lucrative package led by former Phils prospect Travis D’Arnaud, baseball’s top catching prospect, and righthanded pitcher Noah Syndergaard. They were ranked the No.1 and No.2 prospects in the Jays’ system by Baseball Prospectus earlier this month.
The Rays traded pitchers James Shields and Wade Davis for an ever more lucrative package, headlined by outfielder Wil Myers, one of if not the top hitting prospects in all of baseball.
So if a team wants to swing a deal for the 25-year-old Upton, who is owed $38.5 million in the next three seasons, they better be prepared to unload the farm. After signing Ross, there has been speculation that Upton, the on-again, off-again human trade rumor, could be had in a trade; ditto his teammate, lefthanded hitting Jason Kubel.
It’s all about supply and demand; since more than a handful of teams would love to add Upton (Texas has both a bounty of top prospects and the need for an impact outfielder), the Diamondbacks could probably name their price and get it, too.
Would you deal Jesse Biddle for Upton? How about Biddle and Tommy Joseph? I imagine you're not as excited about the idea of Upton now.
Even a deal for the lesser bats on the trade market would be costly.
If the Rockies are asking the world for Fowler, you’d imagine they’re not going to unload his teammate, Michael Cuddyer, for middling prospects or Triple-A arms. Ditto the D-backs and Kubel.
Add the fact that the Phils have already depleted some of their trade chips in making two deals this month (for Revere and Michael Young) and it’s difficult to imagine them swinging a deal for a high-profile bat. Then again, it’s never a good idea to bet against Ruben Amaro Jr.
But given the cost of outfielders this winter – both on the free agent and trade markets – it might be a good idea to set yourself up for another low-risk, high-reward-type addition.
The Phils have already gone that route a few times this winter.
Here’s a name like that I might consider, so long as he can still play 7 innings a game in the outfield: Lance Berkman.
Yes his health has been a serious issue recently, but he did hit .301 with a .412 OBP, .959 OPS, 31 home runs and 94 RBI in 145 games with St. Louis in 2011 as an outfielder. He would surely come cheap.
No, Berkman, who turns 37 in February, is nowhere near the perfect solution in the outfield. But there are no perfect solutions remaining and, if he’s healthy, he’s an upgrade over what your current corner outfielders.
But that’s just a random name I’m throwing out there. Because at this point in the winter, that’s really all that’s left on the outfield market.
- J-Stroll has earned his nickname. IMO, he is a big part of the problem in that clubhouse - where leaders are as rare as active brain cell's in Amaro's head. Like Abreu in 2007, the team will get better when J-Stroll is gone. He just keeps mailing it in -- refusing to take pitches, refusing to hustle down to first base, and refusing to bat anywhere but leadoff. I don't care who defended him last summer, anyone who watched him in the first half of 2012 couldn't defend him now. It is all immaterial, of course, because Rube-the-Boob bid against himself in signing him to a contract that no other team would take on. Can't trade him - just like they can't trade Howard, Utley (not Rube's fault), Pap, Doc, and, apparently - Lee.
— Copper34 - I don't think the Phillies cared much for signing another outfielder for multiple years at a high rate per year.
I am just as happy with what we got as opposed to a Hamilton, Upton , Ross , Swisher or Victorino.
Bourn is still out there but he really does not fill the Phillies need for power and he is a lefthanded hitter.
If its power we want, let Ruf get an opportunity to supply it. An improving Dominic Brown might end up being a better corner outfielder than all the aforementioned free agents who got the big bucks.
There will be another chance at the trading deadline next year if there is a need or a desire to pursue a difference maker.
Amaro's patience may pay off in the long run.
The success of the team depends more on the returning to health of Howard, Utley and Doc. Just one of them being unable to answer the bell coming out of spring training might be enough to sink this team's chances - if all three return to form, I kind of like this team.— candidly - I agree with everything until the last paragraph. I can't really see Utley, Howard or even Doc, the way his fastball has faded the last two years, contributing much of anything at their ages. Old players fade. But if they are healthy, Howard and Utley will be penciled into a black hole at 3 & 4 in the line up no matter how poorly they hit or how many throwing errors they make. That's what Charlie does and as Amaro says, he's paying them to carry the team. Doesn't really matter if they can do it anymore. If Howard can't answer the bell, Ruf can play first-maybe permanently (see 2005). Galvis is hitting .300 with some pop this winter. His chance to stay on the field might come when Utley shuts it down. — jtj06
- Brown, gal is, Joseph, and biddle for upton. You guys doing it?— AHash
- Rube has already admitted this is a "transition" year. He's not worried about fielding a team that can win it all because he knows the fans will show up anyway.
My money will not "transition" to the Phillies any more until they transition to a more professional style of management.— fmMD 
warbiscuit is actually Ed Wade...- The thought of trading Worley and May for Revere still makes me sick! I would have added one more prospect for a Fowler. For Upton I would have sent Worley,May and another prospect. People are so hung up on Biddle and Pettibone, what have they done again? May was untouchable a year ago and now gone. Upton is a STAR— twpman
- If the Phillies are contenders this year, Ruf, Brown, and Galvis are going to be in the middle of it. Just hoping Manuel can get out of the way and that Amaro doesn't give Charlie more old guys to run out there because he saw them do something 5 years ago.— jtj06
- To everyone touting the current rankings of all the prospects the Phillies have given up - as well as the non-ranking of who they picked up - it wasn't too long ago that Phils had the top-rated prospect in all of baseball. Now 90% of this fanbase wants to get rid of him. So until any of those prospects do anything in the majors, that's all they are, prospects. And ratings are predictions, guesses, etc. Only when any of those prospects perform well can those trades be correctly judged. No one - not you, me, nor any of the "experts" know what these kids are going to do.— Dave14
- @Dave14 --yes you too should throw away the cash in your wallet since you can't eat or wear it --amazing how many morons there are who can't comprehend basic logic— warbiscuit
- the fact that they still have ryan howard is all i need to know. his contract is preventing them from being serious contenders again. can you get another first baseman? i guess not. amaro can't admit he screwed everything up with that contract.— goofyfooterwill
- Have any of you people actually read the scouting reports on Ruf? There are no scouts who believe that he's anything more than a career minor leaguer. He grades far below average in every metric except power, and he doesn't make contact enough to exploit that power at the big league level. Anyone who is counting on Ruf to contribute is in for disappointment.— Jeff Dowder
- There are some detailed scouting reports out there that point out some of his weaknesses. If you read those, you temper your enthusiasm a bit (I know I did). I'd still like to see him get a legitimate shot to show whether he can do it or not. Give him the first half, or most of it with regular starts and some off the bench roles. He's 26 years old already so the time to find out is now, not to put him in AAA for a good part of 2013 and put it off another year. The fine line here is he may be at his best trade value now. That would plummet if those scouting reports are all correct. — s
- warbiscuit - you seem to talk with nothing positive to say. I didn't bother reading past your first entry and doubt most people do. Please go bother the fans on someone else's board.— karl51
- No - you should probably leave, karl. This isn't the "Phillies Phan Club" message board. That's where you should be. This is the comments section on Philly.com. When the GM of the team you love destroys it with bad move after bad move, you come here. And you hope that the owners and other fans listen. Because, without a GM that does a better job evaluating talent and making deals, the Phillies are in trouble. — Copper34
