Over the last two years, Domonic Brown has been better at baseball than Delmon Young
What if I told you that, according to virtually every objective measure available to us, Dom Brown has been a better baseball player than Delmon Young over the last two seasons?
Over the last two years, Domonic Brown has been better at baseball than Delmon Young
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
I'm already on record as saying that the Delmon Young signing makes some sense for the Phillies. At $750,000, there is not a lot of downside.
That being said, there is some downside, and that downside is the potential that the signing of Young precludes Domonic Brown from entering a season with the confidence that comes with knowing that he has a regular major league job. Now, I know there is a faction of Phillies fans that is suffering from Dom Brown fatigue. That faction would likely argue that 422 plate appearances is as much of an opportunity as most players can hope for at the major league level. And in the 422 plate appearances that Brown has logged over the last couple of seasons, he hasn't put up the numbers that you would expect out of a prospect who was as highly touted as he was.
But do me a favor and forget about the expectations for a moment. Instead of comparing Brown to the player you were led to believe he would be, why not compare him to the player who the Phillies just signed to replace him as their top option in right field heading into spring training.
What if I told you that, according to virtually every objective measure available to us, Dom Brown has been a better baseball player than Delmon Young over the last two seasons?
Over the last two years, Brown has 21 doubles, 3 triples, 10 home runs, 46 walks and 2 hit by pitches in 422 plate appearances. That means he has produced a total of 194 bases in 422 plate appearances (two bases for a double, three for triple, one for a walk, etc.). That's an average of 0.46 bases per plate appearances. Over the last two seasons, Delmon Young has produced an average of 0.43 bases per plate appearance.
Power? Young has the edge in home runs, averaging one every 34.9 at bats, while Brown checks in at one every 37.1 at bats. But Brown has an edge in extra base hits, averaging one every 10.9 ABs, with Young checking in at one every 13.1 ABs. Of Brown's 89 hits, 38 percent have gone for extra bases. Of Young's 280 hits, 29 percent have gone for extra bases.
Contact? Brown has struck out in 16 percent of his plate appearances. Young has struck out in 18 percent of his PAs. Advantage: Brown.
RBIs? Young has the edge there, averaging one every 8.1 plate appearances (Brown: 9.4 PAs). But Brown has scored runs at a higher rate, because he reaches base more (one every 8.6 PAs compared to one every 10.3 PAs for Young). And since RBIs and runs both equal the same number on the scoreboard, it is worth noting that Brown has produced an RBI or a run every 5.0 PAs, while Young has done so every 5.1 PAs. So even if you believe that runs and RBIs are valid metrics to measure performance, Brown has the slight edge there.
So what am I missing? Brown reaches base more, creates more bases with his hits, strikes out less, and produces runs at a higher rate. Over the course of a 600 plate appearance season, at the rates both players posted in 2011 and 2012, Young would give you a grand total of 2 more home runs, 30 more singles and 11 more RBIs at the expense of 40 more walks/HBPs, 4 more doubles, 3 more triples, 8 fewer strikeouts, 10 fewer double plays, and 12 more runs scored.
Again, at the rates both players have posted over the last two seasons, this is how a season of 600 plate appearances would look:
Domonic Brown: 600 PAs, 195 times on base, 14 home runs, 30 doubles, 4 triples, 98 strikeouts, 64 RBIs, 70 runs, 11 GIDPs.
Delmon Young: 600 PAs, 179 times on base, 16 home runs, 26 doubles, 1 triple, 106 strikeouts, 75 RBIs, 58 runs, 21 GIDPs.
Really, the best anybody can say for Young is that the two players' production has been similar. The big difference, of course, is that we at least have enough of a sample size to say that Young can be expected to give the Phillies mediocre production. Maybe you think we have enough of a sample size to say the same thing about Brown, and that he has already peaked at 24 years old, and that Young after seven years in the majors has more upside.
I'm just not sure that it makes sense to give Delmon Young his fourth opportunity to fulfil his potential before giving Domonic Brown his first real one.
I also wonder if Sandberg's presence on the coaching staff will be good for Brown. I don't think Charlie's very good with the young guys. Sandberg and Brown have some history together now. Can't hurt.— s-
Murph, what is this Brown in left field foolishness, Ruf should get every opportunity to be the left fielder. And noticed in your poll you don't give the option of Ruf in left and Brown and Young platooning in right, which is the way it should be. Ruf's big right handed bat in the lineup is what most fans are looking forward to this season. I hope Ruf stays and you go.— BigT - Your problem there is 6 outfielders. Barring an injury to a starting position player or carrying only 11 pitchers, carrying 6 outfielders means Ruf or Galvis have to go to AAA. The numbers just don't work. They could also try moving Nix. — s
- Braves just picked up Justin Upton. Hello third place. Doesn't matter which of the two Phillies choices start.— johnny eagle
Cannot believe how many people think Delmon Young will actually start in right field. You do know that sometimes a GM has to say things a certain way in order to get a player to sign.
Young is a RH power bat off the bench until Chooch is cleared to play. Nothing more.
In fact, if he plays ANY considerable amount of innings in the field, I will apologize to Warbiscuit and join him in his crusade. :) :)— zubzub- How are we supposed to believe that when Amaro said something similar about Thome playing first base then tried it? Look at Joe Savery ... He's a starter. Now a power hitter. Now a reliever. Now a worthless first round pick. The Phillies do this enough for it to be in the realm of possibility that they actually believe it.
You still carry two catchers while Ruiz is out so Ruf or Galvis are still going to AAA if no position players are on the DL or they carry only 11 pitchers.
— s - 8 position players - Ruf and Brown start
12 pitchers
Mayberry, Nix, Young, Frandsen, Catcher
Galvis goes down; and he should. He needs the at bats. If someone gets hurt they can bring him up in a day.
— zubzub - So we have no defensive sub for the infield. Frandsen is, at best, only marginally better than Young defensively. That also gives Charlie more reasons to wear guys like Utley completely down by the all-star game.
I think it's a mistake to go so offense heavy and ignore defense on the bench. Look where it got us last year.— s - Like I said, S, Galvis can be brought up in a day if necessary. Frandsen on the other hand actually played more SS and 2B in the minors than 3B. He is "serviceable" at all three positions. I am not implying he plays long term. Just a spot start here and there. Last year you had some infield/outfield guys. This year ... not. So you either go three OF or and 1 IF or 2 OF and 2 IF. Either way, I don't think they sent Ruf off to Venezuela so he can play at AAA. If he goes 0 for April, I think Mayberry would step in and then the fun begins. :)
That being said, Darin Ruf has batted over 300 at every level of the minors. He may not hit 40 HRs and bat 350, but I don't think he will bomb.
Back to my point .... I feel that if the Phils really wanted a starting outfielder they would have signed one. (not the one they just signed)
Just an opinion. carry on my friend.— zubzub - Maybe. I think injuries may make it a moot point by April. If it were me, I'd want Galvis as my Wilson Valdez. Plus Galvis hit very well in winter ball. The "only down the road" part only works if he subs full-time due to injury. His real value is probably off the bench as a late inning defensive sub. But that's just me ... old school defense and all.
My real point is neither of those two (Ruf or Galvis) should suffer for a guy like Delmon Young. If they had traded for a more elite all-around outfielder that's a different story. The Phillies have consistently gone with the contracts and not the best players when it's options versus eating guaranteed salary.— s - Well done and defensively Brown is the best of a bad choice BUT Young is righthanded power in a line up and ballpark dearly devoid thereof— robinlupe
- Anyone who uses the ALCS MVP defense for Delmon Young obviously doesn't understand the concept of small sample sizes.— mikemimbs
- Most idiotic stats interpretation yet. Give Gelb his column. Geez.— WFChamps
- The usual difficulty with interpreting statistics is that it winds up as an exercise (or, was that an exorcism) in idiocy! — BEMiller
- Frankly, I'd like to see what Domonic Brown can do on a regular playing basis, perhaps in a platoon, even, which always gives the lefty hand hitter the advantage of more playing time. On the other hand, DM's contention that Dom Brown is "better" leaves a lot to the imagination, since he's never had the pressure of having to actually produce as a regular.— BEMiller
