Over the last two years, Domonic Brown has been better at baseball than Delmon Young
What if I told you that, according to virtually every objective measure available to us, Dom Brown has been a better baseball player than Delmon Young over the last two seasons?
Over the last two years, Domonic Brown has been better at baseball than Delmon Young
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
I'm already on record as saying that the Delmon Young signing makes some sense for the Phillies. At $750,000, there is not a lot of downside.
That being said, there is some downside, and that downside is the potential that the signing of Young precludes Domonic Brown from entering a season with the confidence that comes with knowing that he has a regular major league job. Now, I know there is a faction of Phillies fans that is suffering from Dom Brown fatigue. That faction would likely argue that 422 plate appearances is as much of an opportunity as most players can hope for at the major league level. And in the 422 plate appearances that Brown has logged over the last couple of seasons, he hasn't put up the numbers that you would expect out of a prospect who was as highly touted as he was.
But do me a favor and forget about the expectations for a moment. Instead of comparing Brown to the player you were led to believe he would be, why not compare him to the player who the Phillies just signed to replace him as their top option in right field heading into spring training.
What if I told you that, according to virtually every objective measure available to us, Dom Brown has been a better baseball player than Delmon Young over the last two seasons?
Over the last two years, Brown has 21 doubles, 3 triples, 10 home runs, 46 walks and 2 hit by pitches in 422 plate appearances. That means he has produced a total of 194 bases in 422 plate appearances (two bases for a double, three for triple, one for a walk, etc.). That's an average of 0.46 bases per plate appearances. Over the last two seasons, Delmon Young has produced an average of 0.43 bases per plate appearance.
Power? Young has the edge in home runs, averaging one every 34.9 at bats, while Brown checks in at one every 37.1 at bats. But Brown has an edge in extra base hits, averaging one every 10.9 ABs, with Young checking in at one every 13.1 ABs. Of Brown's 89 hits, 38 percent have gone for extra bases. Of Young's 280 hits, 29 percent have gone for extra bases.
Contact? Brown has struck out in 16 percent of his plate appearances. Young has struck out in 18 percent of his PAs. Advantage: Brown.
RBIs? Young has the edge there, averaging one every 8.1 plate appearances (Brown: 9.4 PAs). But Brown has scored runs at a higher rate, because he reaches base more (one every 8.6 PAs compared to one every 10.3 PAs for Young). And since RBIs and runs both equal the same number on the scoreboard, it is worth noting that Brown has produced an RBI or a run every 5.0 PAs, while Young has done so every 5.1 PAs. So even if you believe that runs and RBIs are valid metrics to measure performance, Brown has the slight edge there.
So what am I missing? Brown reaches base more, creates more bases with his hits, strikes out less, and produces runs at a higher rate. Over the course of a 600 plate appearance season, at the rates both players posted in 2011 and 2012, Young would give you a grand total of 2 more home runs, 30 more singles and 11 more RBIs at the expense of 40 more walks/HBPs, 4 more doubles, 3 more triples, 8 fewer strikeouts, 10 fewer double plays, and 12 more runs scored.
Again, at the rates both players have posted over the last two seasons, this is how a season of 600 plate appearances would look:
Domonic Brown: 600 PAs, 195 times on base, 14 home runs, 30 doubles, 4 triples, 98 strikeouts, 64 RBIs, 70 runs, 11 GIDPs.
Delmon Young: 600 PAs, 179 times on base, 16 home runs, 26 doubles, 1 triple, 106 strikeouts, 75 RBIs, 58 runs, 21 GIDPs.
Really, the best anybody can say for Young is that the two players' production has been similar. The big difference, of course, is that we at least have enough of a sample size to say that Young can be expected to give the Phillies mediocre production. Maybe you think we have enough of a sample size to say the same thing about Brown, and that he has already peaked at 24 years old, and that Young after seven years in the majors has more upside.
I'm just not sure that it makes sense to give Delmon Young his fourth opportunity to fulfil his potential before giving Domonic Brown his first real one.
Start with a platoon. Dom hasn't earned anything yet. Let him work for it. I hope he can now catch better than an eighth grader.— RonC1- Young in the field will sell more beer at the ballpark, accompanied with more food, followed by more coffee -- no 'small potatoes' there to overlook.
- Dont think you can ignore 2010. Young has an all-star level season under his belt...along with postseason success. wish I could have said that about Dom by now.— phillykid96
- By the time the 2010 all-star game rolled around Young had over 2000 PA's. So at Phillies speed give Brown another 9 years to see if he can do the same with the same number of chances. — s
- Brown should start in right, period! Ruff in left, with Mayberry/Revere in center. Young can hit, not much more! Right handed bench hitter with Nix the lefthanded pinch hitter.
Brown and Ruff need a full year of play to get a read on them to see if they are the future. We know what Young is capable/limited of.— hodigger - I think the fact that he is right handed is the big factor here. he isn't insurance against brown he is insurance against Mayberry and Ruf— missurichie
- From reading the comments- I am surprised at how many people dispute Murphy's logic. I ask you this, if Dom Brown was a free agent this winter, who would have got the better contract? Him or Young? I have no doubt that someone would take Brown for three years $15-$18 million (if you didn't consider years of service). For those who are pointing out that Young is a RH bat (he also is, mind-blowingly, a DH), Mayberry has some of the best platoon splits against lefties in the majors. He can also run in a straight line, throw a ball straight, and judge and catch fly balls- all things that Delmon Young does NOT bring to the table.— jtj10
- Good article, good points. (I've been disapointed with Philly sports writers lately).
Maybe Brown and Young BOTH end up as our corner outfielders.— thenutz72 - Props to Murphy again! He is telling it like it is. This OF sucks -- it is just a question of which guy is worse than the other. Don't forget that the new CF had less than 20 extra-base hits in 500 plate appearances last season. Wilson Valdez could top that with 200. Don't forget that the new third baseman hasn't played third since 2010 when he was awful in the field. He was ranked one of the worst in the league, which is why he was moved to DH. Texas parted ways with him only when it was clear that he can't field and can't hit. Same goes for Delmon Young. I won't even mention John Lannan and Kendrick in the rotation. Rube-the-Boob has outdone himself this offseason. Just when I thought he couldn't Ruin Tomorrow (JR.) any worse, he hits new lows. Somewhere, Davy Lopes and Chuck LaMar are giggling.— Copper34
- This is a dumb article! Your trying to compare the numbers of an ALCS MVP to a stiff like Dominic Brown. It doesn't matter anyway, because this is the worst Phillies outfield I've seen in at least fifteen years. With the Braves getting Justin Upton this team is doomed for third place.— PSU_Chuck
- This is a dumb article! Your trying to compare the numbers of an ALCS MVP to a stiff like Dominic Brown. It doesn't matter anyway, because this is the worst Phillies outfield I've seen in at least fifteen years. With the Braves getting Justin Upton this team is doomed for third place.— PSU_Chuck
- Brown held Brown back, not the Phillies. He had a golden opportunity in '11, but he's sooo stinkin' fragile, he wasn't around to seize it. Instead, Francisco grabbed it and failed, forcing the Pence deal, as the Phils had a potential 100-win season going at the deadline and their own golden opportunity. Other backup outfielders got opoortunities here, grabbed them, and tore it up....Werth, Victorino were scrubs that now have rings and $millions 'cause they didn't trip on their shoelaces when opportunty knocked. Dom still has a chance...just stay healthy and take the job this time,... earn it.— prowler
- It's very true that being so fragile hasn't helped at all. They've got another guy like that in Gillies at AAA.
I still think there were chances to give him more consistent starts and let him slump if they really believed he had something. The guy's averaged less than 170 PA's a year and is out of options now. This is a pattern with the Phillies. Mayberry is in a similar boat. They hedge for years at a time on guys. I say be decisive and either move them or give them every opportunity possible to succeed or fail.
We would not be in this position if we knew more about both Brown and Mayberry a year or two ago and had decided then on their futures. I think with Brown the Phillies keep looking back at the trade value he once had and that freezes them from being decisive about the guy.— s - This is why DM is the best. Nice work.— camasbud
- Dave's really getting to the heart of it now. This is needed and it may, in some strange long roundabout way, eventually help. I love baseball and I love my Phillies. I'm old enough to have suffered through many many hopeless seasons. But that doesn't mean we should be happy when we see problems. When the writers start getting right to the core of those problems the team has to eventually take notice. I hope.
— s
