Oswalt or Worley? An alternate viewpoint
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Oswalt or Worley? An alternate viewpoint
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
In today's paper, Sam Donnellon outlined the argument for Vance Worley as the Phillies' No. 4 starter in the postseason. There is a lot of logic in there, and if the emails I receive are any indication, a lot of fans agree with Sam's thinking.
But as long as Roy Oswalt is healthy and pitching the way he has since coming off the disabled list, the Phillies will almost certainly start Oswalt and send Worley to the bullpen. And that's the smart play.
That's no offense to either Sam or Vance. Worley has been a revelation this season, while Oswalt has looked much more mortal than the pitcher who dominated down the stretch last season.
But to look at this rationally, you need to set aside the expectations for both players and look only at reality. And the reality is that there really isn't a situation where putting an effective and healthy Oswalt in the bullpen is a better option than putting a healthy and effective Worley there.
1) The Numbers
Let's look at both pitchers' last seven starts, since that is how many starts Oswalt has made since returning from the disabled list. We'll disclude Worley's rain-shortened three-inning outing against the Diamondbacks and instead go back to his start against the Pirates in July. Oswalt has logged more innings (47 to 42 2/3), allowed the same number of runs (22) and one fewer earned run (21 to 22), allowed fewer home runs (3 to 5) and fewer extra base hits (18 to 22).
The important part here is the innings. The biggest potential weakness that has developed on the Phillies' roster is the bullpen in front of Ryan Madson and Antonio Bastardo, and that is assuming Bastardo shakes off his recent sluggishness and gets back to the dominance he has displayed for the vast majority of the season.
For this team to have its greatest chance at success, it needs seven innings out of its starting pitchers. It needs to go Starter-Bastardo-Madson-Game Over. It is a bit of wishful thinking to expect that to happen in every postseason game, which is why rookie righthander Mike Stutes should face some big situations. He is more than capable. But Madson and righthander Brad Lidge are really the only proven veteran relievers in the Phillies' bullpen. Bastardo, Stutes, David Herndon, Kyle Kendrick, Michael Schwimer -- none of them have much in the way of experience in the bullpen, let alone playoff experience in the bullpen.
Granted, Worley hasn't exactly been a liability. He has averaged six innings a start over the last seven times through the rotation. And Oswalt has days where he looks like the Oswalt of old and days where he looks like the Oswalt who gutted out innings in the weeks before he went on the disabled list.
But that brings us to point No. 2. . .
2) Track record
As good as Worley has been this season, the fact is that Oswalt has a far greater track record. Just last season he was dominating the Giants for eight innings in Game 2 of the National League Championship Series. In fact, in two starts in the NLCS, he allowed just two earned runs with 14 strikeouts and three walks in 14 innings. Of his 10 career postseason starts, eight have lasted at least six innings, and four have lasted at least seven.
In the postseason, Charlie Manuel has a far shorter leash on pitchers than he does in the regular season. He pulled Joe Blanton with two out in the fourth inning in Game 4 of last year's NLCS. He pulled him after five innings in Game 4 of the 2009 NLCS. In that year's division series, he yanked J.A. Happ after early trouble.
This year, the Phillies do not have the depth in the front of their bullpen that they did in the previous three years. There is no Chad Durbin or Chan Ho Park, both veterans who were capable of pitching multiple innings while also striking out batters. Stutes has that type of ability and stuff. But again, he has never pitched this deep into a big league season before. Brad Lidge can pitch a sixth or seventh inning, but that's a role he has not performed often in his career. Beyond those pitchers, the Phillies have a bunch of pitch-to-contact guys who are early in their careers as relievers - Kendrick, Herndon, Schwimer, etc.
As good as Worley has been with runners on base this season, who is Manuel going to trust more with a 3-1 lead and the bases loaded in the fifth inning of a playoff game?
3) Oswalt's back
Sure, Oswalt has made a few spot relief appearances in his career. The last one did not end well. It seems more than a little improbable that Oswalt, who has a set between-starts routine to maintain his balky back, would be able to slide seamlessly into a role that asks him to be ready to pitch each day that he comes to the ballpark.
4) Splits
Evaluating pitching is not as simple as looking at ERA and innings, particularly when it comes to the postseason, when the offenses are better and the strike zones are often smaller. Over the last eight starts, 24 percent of Worley's strikes have been looking. You saw in Milwaukee what can happen when an umpire's definition of the strike zone differs from the one Worley has received from other umpires. He missed on a couple of close pitches to Ryan Braun, who ended up hitting a go-ahead single.
This isn't a knock on Worley. But umpires are human beings. And a lot of Worley's strikes have come on the corners of the plate, when an umpire judges that the action on his sinker allowed the pitch to catch the plate. Who is more likely to get borderline calls from an umpire: a rookie like Worley, or a veteran like Oswalt? Who knows how to work umpires better: a rookie like Worley, or a veteran like Oswalt? And if an umpire is not calling that outside or inside strike, who has better control of his secondary stuff: Oswalt or Worley?
Another point: Game 4 is almost certain to occur on the road. Worley's ERA is 1.79 higher on the road (3.86) than it is at home (2.07) this season. Oswalt's splits: 3.83 ERA at home, 3.92 on the road.
5) In conclusion
Keep in mind that a Game 4 starter in the NLCS or World Series will be available to pitch on three days rest in an all-hands-on-deck Game 7. And if the NLDS goes to 5 games and the NLCS goes to 7, the Fourth Starter would be the only pitcher available to start Game 2 of the World Series on normal rest.
Assuming both Worley and Oswalt continue pitching as they have, it just makes more sense to start the playoffs with Oswalt as the No. 4 starter. Worley can then back him up in Game 4 and spend the first three games as another arm in the bullpen should Lee or Halladay or Hamels end up with a rough start.
Oswalt has better upside than Worley does as a starter. Worley likely is more adaptable to change then Oswalt.
Worley still has some time to further his argument against such a situation. For now, though, it is the logical one.
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I agree Oswalt is the choice for the 4th starter. Experience means everything in the post season plus Roy will step up his game when the pressure is on.— JimSeitz- 100% agree. And that's no knock on Worley.— Phils Phan 28
- Enough with Oswalt going to the bullpen in the playoffs. If I see Schneider bat one more time it is too much. Don't say pitch Worley with Ruiz catching, Schneider is Worley's catcher. I won't even go into the playoff experience, enough with Worley as 4th pitcher.— jg21
- The mere fact that the numbskull Donellon wants Worley (who is impressive this season) to start in the playoffs makes Oswalt an easy choice.— Bob1
- I didn't even read the Donnellon article because the premise makes no sense. I don't care if Worley doesn't allow a hit the rest of the season, Oswalt is the #4. Let's see, start a rookie or....start arguably the best NL pitcher of the past decade? Hmm...why are we talking about this??— sla6yer
- unfortunately this "viewpoint" ignores the most relevant fact: that Oswalt stinks this year and has a losing record for a team more than 40 games over .500 while Worley is 11-2 ..I could care less what Oswalt did in 2005 ... he is currently mediocre garbage— warbiscuit
- We have to see what both pitchers do the rest of the way. I think is a little premature to form an opinion now. But, like I said the other day, even if Worley outpitches Oswalt the rest of the way, I'll go with Oswalt regardless of their record, unless Oswalt stinks up the joint real bad and for some reason loses his FB again. Like Murph said, Oswalt has the playoff track record, and a pretty good one. The Yankees faced a similar situation in '09 with Phil Hughes, who also had a pretty good season going 8-3 with a 3.15 ERA and finishing 5-1 with a 1.64 in the second half. But they had veterans Andy Pettite (14-8, 4.16 ERA) and A.J. Burnett (13-9, 4.04). So they send Hughes to the pen and the rest is history. Pettite won 4 games (2 against the Phillies) and Burnett 1 (against the Phillies), but pitched relatively good. As a matter of fact, they only used 3 starters the whole postseason, those two along with CC Sabathia.— EL Zorro
- Thank you Murph; finally some facts and logic. I also believe with the HLH combination (likely LHH or left,right,left) they may never need a 4th. It would be good to look at the last ten years of playoffs and see how the pitchers have been deployed - few if any 4th starters start. Keep it up, man, you good.— 24sDad
- Thank you Murph; finally some facts and logic. I also believe with the HLH combination (likely LHH or left,right,left) they may never need a 4th. It would be good to look at the last ten years of playoffs and see how the pitchers have been deployed - few if any 4th starters start. Keep it up, man, you good.— 24sDad
- Thanks Murph - one of the few voices of reason in a sea of delusional, short-sighted fans. As you mention, people need to "set aside the expectations for both players and look only at reality"... I think that's where a lot of people struggle! Fans I talk to also seem for some reason to have very selective memories (it's crazy that you, like myself, always have to remind people how great Oswalt was last year, especially in the Giants series). People also love the flavor of the day... a few weeks ago, all anybody could talk about was how stupid Charlie is for not starting Mayberry over Ibanez every game. Ibanez is our "left handed bat off the bench" - remember that? A few weeks later, Mayberry has cooled (big surprise!) and made some sketchy plays in the field, and Ibanez has heated up again (big surprise!) and is NOT the liability in the field that people think he is (arm strength notwithstanding, which is often true of a LF). So now the alarmists have their switched their sights to Oswalt, the proven superstar (who has certainly had a down by his standards), and boy wonder Worley, the cool cat who tweets me at 4:00am on game nights and has put together a nice Happ-Kendrick-esque half-season. Seriously – pretend you are a fan of the D-Backs, Braves, or Brewers – and you are trailing the Phillies 2-1 in a series. Are you honestly pulling for the Phillies to start Roy Oswalt, a 5-0 career postseason starter, against you over a rookie?
— JesseH - Jesse H, I don't remember many people saying Charlie should start Mayberry over Ibañez every game but rather platooning the two players. Well, there is not coincidence that since Charlie realized Ibañez is not an everyday player and started platooning both players, Ibañez is hitting better. Nevertheless, you should reconsider your comment about Ibañez not being a liability on the field. He's the worst OF in the game and the last two games he started have shown that. He failed to make two plays that most OF would have made. Mayberry would have made both while sitting on a lawn chair. The first was a line drive that he froze and the ball went over his head. The other one was on Monday, this time a blooper that he also misplayed by freezing and then he dove and the ball hit his glove. I agreed with Sarge and TMac that that play should have been scored an error. Mayberry and Francisco would have made that play. He also has probably the weakest arm in the majors and is slow. Yes, you have to give him credit because he hustle all the time. That's why some of his plays look pretty good, but in reality, a average OF makes those plays without not much hustle, or looking like a Flamingo with a glove running. Come playoff time, I hope Charlie won't be so loyal to him and start JMJ agaisnt LH and in some games using as a defensive replacement late in games. I don't want to see another misplayed ball like the one against the Giants that cost Hallday two runs. BTW, I'm not a Raul hater. I'm just telling it like it is.— EL Zorro
- EL Zorro - did you watch the game last night? Ever see Raul let a routine ground ball go between his legs? You are letting the SABR heads fill your mind with the "worst OF in the league" nonsense. There are lots of good players that are butchers out there... Matt Holliday, Matt Kemp, Alfonso Soriano (and I'd throw Manny in there if he was still playing) to name a few. Yes he is slow and has a weak arm (as many LFs have), but he has 1 error on the season for a .995 fielding percentage. And he knows the game... throws to the correct base, etc. Doesn't make mistakes the way Mayberry, Brown, even Pence do (over-running a routine fly ball). Charlie is platooning Ibanez because the Phillies have an 11 game lead, just like why he is spelling Howard, Vic, and being cautious with Jimmy and Utz. And yes, I heard a lot of chatter from friends, other layman fans, and scribes that said Ibanez should be relegated to the bench, not just platooned. It has died down over the last few weeks. Oswalt is the new undeserved target.
— JesseH - Mayberry is a good defensive OF. That's why he subs for Victorino at CF. Yes, he let that ball go threw his legs, but who hasn't. I have seen Victorino do it. That's mostly because lack of concentration. It has nothing to do with being a bad OF.— EL Zorro
- BTW, I'm with you with Brown not being a good OF.I don't understand how this kid was labeled a 5-tool talent. He's not even playing the field during the Pigs playoff run. He's been use occasionally by Sandberg as a DH. And the last time I checked, he was hitless in 7 AB with on BB and 3 K's. Ouch.— EL Zorro
- Well, Brown got a hit in 4 AB again as a DH yesterday. So he's hitting now 0.91.— EL Zorro
- This shouldn't even be a discussion. If healthy Oswalt HAS to be the 4th starter— Lemur
