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Offseason Notes: Shortstops in short supply, potential outfielders, etc.

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Offseason Notes: Shortstops in short supply, potential outfielders, etc.

POSTED: Tuesday, November 22, 2011, 10:44 AM

At the general managers meetings last week, Ruben Amaro Jr. re-iterated the Phillies' desire to re-sign short stop Jimmy Rollins, but also mentioned "contingency plans" should the two sides fail to come together on a deal. Right now, it is difficult to envision what those contingency plans might be. In fact, this might be a year where a team finds better value at the top of the heap rather than the bottom.

Less than a month into the free agent signing period, we have already seen six middle infielders sign contracts, several of them at surprisingly player-friendly terms. The Pirates reportedly have agree to sign short stop Clint Barmes to a two-year, $10.5 million deal.

We had mentioned Barmes as a potential Rollins fill-in, but an Average Annual Value of $5.25 million seems a bit much for a player who has hit just .240/.309/.370 with 20 home runs in 927 plate appearances over the last two seasons. Barmes is a solid defensive short stop and brings above-average power to the position, but he has not come close to replicating his 2008 season, when he hit .290/.322/.468 with 11 home runs in 417 plate appearances for the Rockies. 

The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, paid soon-to-be 30-year-old second baseman Aaron Hill $11 million over two seasons despite a .225/.285/.375 line and 34 home runs over the last two seasons. The Dodgers handed a two-year, $8.75 million deal to veteran second baseman Mark Ellis.

It is looking more and more like the Phillies will either have to sign Rollins, make an unlikely run at Jose Reyes, or resign themselves to playing 2012 with a huge offensive drop off at short stop.

Below is a look at the short stops who are available on the market, along with their numbers from 2011: 

First Last Tm Age PA SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Con AB/SO SO% S/Str BB% AB/HR XBH% X/H%
Jose Reyes# NYM 28 586 39 7 0.337 0.384 0.493 0.877 89% 13.1 7.0% 7% 7.3% 76.7 9.2% 30%
Jimmy Rollins# PHI 32 631 30 8 0.268 0.338 0.399 0.736 88% 9.6 9.4% 8% 9.2% 35.4 6.3% 26%
Rafael Furcal# TOT 33 369 9 5 0.231 0.298 0.348 0.646 88% 8.5 10.6% 8% 7.6% 41.6 6.2% 30%
Alex Gonzalez ATL 34 593 2 0 0.241 0.27 0.372 0.642 77% 4.5 21.3% 18% 3.7% 37.6 7.3% 32%
Ronny Cedeno PIT 28 454 2 5 0.249 0.297 0.339 0.636 79% 4.4 20.5% 15% 6.6% 206.5 6.6% 29%
Edgar Renteria CIN 34 333 4 2 0.251 0.306 0.348 0.654 79% 4.6 19.5% 15% 7.2% 59.8 5.7% 25%
Yuniesky Betancourt MIL 29 584 4 4 0.252 0.271 0.381 0.652 84% 8.8 10.8% 13% 2.7% 42.8 7.4% 31%
Orlando Cabrera SFG 36 133 2 2 0.222 0.241 0.27 0.51 82% 7.4 12.8% 14% 3.0% 126 3.0% 14%
Jack Wilson ATL 33 45 0 0 0.22 0.238 0.244 0.482 73% 3.4 26.7% 20% 2.2%
2.2% 11%

2) Early in the offseason, several emailers and commenters suggested that the Phillies make a run at Marlins outfielder Logan Morrison.

It was a fine thought. Morrison is coming off a checkered season in Florida that saw his batting average and on base percentage drop to .247 and .330 after a rookie season in which he hit .283/.390/.447 in 287 plate appearances. In fact, he was demoted to Triple-A at one point. Buy low, right? 
Well, according to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald, you can forget about Morrison. The Marlins' beat writer reports that the club rebuffed Oakland's request to include Morrison or Mike Stanton in a trade for lefty starter (and one-time Phillie minor leaguer) Gio Gonzalez. 
Turns out, Florida isn't ready to give up on a 23-year-old who hit 23 home runs and posted a .797 OPS in a down year. 
Gonzalez is coming off a season in which he went 16-12 with a 3.12 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 4.1 BB/9 and 0.8 HR/9 in 202 innings. Gonzalez will be 26 in 2012 and is under club control through the 2015 season. If the Marlins won't trade Morrison for a player like Gonzalez, it is hard to imagine the Phillies being able to lure him away. 

It was a fine thought. Morrison is coming off a checkered season in Florida that saw his batting average and on base percentage drop to .247 and .330 after a rookie season in which he hit .283/.390/.447 in 287 plate appearances. In fact, he was demoted to Triple-A at one point. Buy low, right? 

Well, according to Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald, you can forget about that. The Marlins' beat writer reports that the club rebuffed Oakland's request to include Morrison or Mike Stanton in a trade for lefty starter (and one-time Phillie minor leaguer) Gio Gonzalez. 
Turns out, Florida isn't ready to give up on a 23-year-old who hit 23 home runs and posted a .797 OPS in a down year. 

Gonzalez is coming off a season in which he went 16-12 with a 3.12 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 4.1 BB/9 and 0.8 HR/9 in 202 innings. Gonzalez will be 26 in 2012 and is under club control through the 2015 season. If the Marlins won't trade Morrison for a player like Gonzalez, it is hard to imagine the Phillies being able to lure him away. 

At this point, it looks like the Phillies are going have to go the veteran route if they hope to add a left-handed bat to complement or provide some insurance for John Mayberry Jr. in left field. 

Here is a look at the free agent options:

First Last Tm Age PA SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Con AB/SO S/Str Pit/PA BB% AB/HR XBH% X/H%
Carlos Beltran# TOT 34 598 4 2 .300 .385 .525 .910 83% 5.9 13% 3.75 11.9% 23.60 11.2% 43%
David DeJesus* OAK 31 506 4 3 .240 .323 .376 .698 84% 5.1 10% 3.95 8.9% 44.20 6.9% 33%
Jason Kubel* MIN 29 401 1 1 .273 .332 .434 .766 80% 4.3 14% 4.10 8.0% 30.50 8.5% 34%
Johnny Damon* TBR 37 647 19 6 .261 .326 .418 .743 81% 6.3 14% 4.00 7.9% 36.40 8.0% 34%
Kosuke Fukudome* TOT 34 603 4 6 .262 .342 .370 .712 83% 4.8 10% 4.27 10.1% 66.30 6.3% 27%
Juan Pierre* CHW 33 711 27 17 .279 .329 .327 .657 94% 15.6 4% 3.43 6.1% 319.50 3.2% 13%
Coco Crisp# OAK 31 583 49 9 .264 .314 .379 .693 86% 8.2 10% 3.47 7.0% 66.40 6.9% 29%
Nate McLouth* ATL 29 321 4 2 .228 .344 .333 .677 84% 5.1 11% 3.93 13.7% 66.80 5.6% 30%
Willie Harris* NYM 33 283 5 4 .246 .351 .317 .668 80% 3.9 14% 3.98 12.7% 120.00 4.6% 22%
Raul Ibanez* PHI 39 575 2 0 .245 .289 .419 .707 77% 5.0 17% 3.70 5.7% 26.80 9.0% 40%
Rick Ankiel* WSN 31 415 10 3 .239 .296 .363 .659 71% 4.0 23% 3.76 7.0% 42.20 7.0% 32%
J.D. Drew* BOS 35 286 0 1 .222 .315 .302 .617 79% 4.3 14% 4.04 11.5% 62.00 3.9% 20%
Fred Lewis* CIN 30 210 2 5 .230 .321 .317 .638 84% 4.8 11% 3.88 10.5% 61.00 6.0% 4.8%


18 comments
Comments  (18)
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 10:53 AM, 11/22/2011
    Murph, I am looking for Galvis to have a decent spring and make the team. He is a brilliant fielder, strong arm and has a lot of speed. More importantly, he actually runs hard to first base.
    NewMick314
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:56 AM, 11/22/2011
    Not sure he has "a lot of speed." He stole 23 bases in the minors in 2011 and was caught 13 times. Plus there's no reason to think he's ready to hit well enough at the big league level to hold down a full-time job on a World Series contending team ... I think I recall the immortal Phont_Runner pining for a one-year deal with Alex Gonzalez the other day. Twice the strikeouts as JRoll. Half the walks. Twenty-eight fewer steals. Lower batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS. Plus not nearly as good in the field. In a year when the team should expect to contend, every shortstop on the market except Reyes would be a decisive step backward from Rollins.
    phillyl0
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:09 AM, 11/22/2011
    Galvis runs hard to first because he hits nothing but weak ground balls and that is the only shot he has of getting a hit. He is NOT ready to play in the majors offensively. The Phils don't need another #8 hitter in the lineup in 2012. If they picked up a good bat to play another position, that would maybe work as a last resort.
    NMPartners
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:15 AM, 11/22/2011
    Galvis can run as hard as he wants to first base, he's still got to hit the ball first, and his ability to do that in the major leagues is still very much in question. Like it or not, Rollins is the best option out there, assuming they can get him down to 3 years (maybe an option) and convince him he's not a lead-off hitter.
    JettMartinez
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:18 AM, 11/22/2011
    Other teams are also looking at those numbers which should make re-signing Rollins for less than 4 years, a tricky matter.

    Still, I suspect we'll see Rollins in Phillies pinstripes come April.
    FishFryFrank
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:20 AM, 11/22/2011
    Good article. BTW, "shortstop" is one word, not two.
    goodgirldaddy
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:24 AM, 11/22/2011
    Rafeal Furcal sure looked like a very tough out when he played against the Phils in the playoff....I wouldn't mind seeing him on the Phils for a year or two.
    frank105
  • Comment removed.
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:28 AM, 11/22/2011
    Jimmy is the best player on this team, and it's emotional leader. He has to be resigned. It really is just as simple as that. In the absence of Howard he needs to hit 3rd: Victorino, Polanco, Rollins, Utley, Pence, Mayberry, Wigginton, Ruiz. If Polanco stays at 3rd; Wiggy plays LF and Mayberry plays 1B, If Polanco moves to 2B; Wiggy plays 3B, Utley 1B, and Mayberry LF. I think the first option is better defensively. If they stay healthy, they easily win 100 again, and win a sixth straight NL East title.
    Paul SoTX
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:34 AM, 11/22/2011
    I can't imagine ANY team giving the oft injured Jimmy Rollins a 4 year deal. He has not played an entire season healthy the past 2+ seasons. He is an injury risk that requires a contingency plan on the contingency signing. With that said, some desperate team wanting to make a splash (Jayson Werth anyone) may pony up a 3-year deal with a 4th based on games played/plate appearances. What was once a realistic free agent market went haywire last year thanks to the Nationals, who are now strapped with a $126 million albatross in right field.
    drhoffman
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:35 AM, 11/22/2011
    most_of_the_commentors_here_are_losers said: "a get on base 25-32% of the time guy....who can field well..."

    You mean a guy like Jimmy Rollins? You know, somebody who got on base 33.8% of the time last year, and has gotten on base 32.9% of the time in his career? Who has won gold gloves, and continues to be a top-fielding shortstop?

    Somebody like that?
    Zherog
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:44 AM, 11/22/2011
    Paul So TX you are talking about the Rollins from 3-4 years ago, he changed on us. Jimmy Rollins is now Jimmy STRollins. Lasting image of him for me was with 7 outs left in season JStoll never made it out of the batters box on a ground ball hit to the lumbering Albert Pujols.

    Id rather see that $12 M per year go somewhere else. Jroll was the man and he'll always be rememebred but I did not like the effort I saw last year.I'm ready to move on.

    Maybe trade a top notch pitching prospect perhaps even Worley for some organizations young SS just about ready to take the step up to mlb.

    Jose Reyes would be the perfect fit(much needed leadoff hitter) but probably out of the Phils price range.Unless they decide to move some big pieces in the short and long term to make room for Reyes.

    joe smith
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:44 AM, 11/22/2011
    There are plenty of options at SS. Jason Bartlett, Jed Lowrie, Sean Rodriguez, Reid Brignac. The Phillies are in trouble if they are "settling" for Rollins with a 11-12 mil per year contract
    FABER
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:48 AM, 11/22/2011
    For the love of God, enough of the stats! We don't need a bushel of stats to tell us that Reyes is hurt more then healthy, that he is me, me, me first and second, that he is an extremely talented player who would most likely not be a good fit for this club. He quit on Willie Randolph, he'll quit on Charlie and the Phils. As soon as he is locked in long term, it'll be multi-visits to the DL. Rollins should understand he should be a career Phillie and it's going to be his call if he wants to lose that distinction while chasing a few extra dollars somewhere else. As for free agent outfielders, Johnny Damon has been a winner everywhere he's been, I wonder if he has anything left. Ibanez coming back would be a good option. My point here is that the Met FA's Reyes and Beltran should be avoided at all costs....One more thing...way back when, Larry Bowa was a skinny, no hit shortstop rookie with the Phils who only became, imo, the greatest shortstop the Phillies ever had. I think with this team we can afford to have Galvis learn his hitting craft here while he puts in his games on the ML level. The minors did not do much for D Brown, what is Galvis going to learn down there that he can't up here?
    DelawareRiverRat
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:53 AM, 11/22/2011
    So tired of the Rollins debate. Throw all the stats otu there you want but the team had a better record when Valdez started instead of Rollins and that was no small sample size. He's on the downside of his career and while I agree Rollins may be the best option for 2012, thsi team can't afford to get locked into a long term 4+ year deal. Plus he's the worst leadoff hitter in baseball, can't/won't bunt and hits more pop ups than willie "mayes" hayes. Valdez is an awesome fielder and will be just fine hittnig in the 8 hole.
    JuanSamuel4prez


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