My thoughts on the Park/Happ Conundrum
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My thoughts on the Park/Happ Conundrum
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
I want you all to take a few seconds on click on this link and read the following story, because it does a good job of accentuating the uniqueness of the situation that the Phillies find themselves in with regard to their search for a fifth starter. The article is taken from the Korea Times, and it breathlessly reports Chan Ho Park's latest spring start and his standing in the competition for the No. 5 spot. While it may seem bizarre that an entire nation of baseball fans on the other side of the world is following a position battle at Phillies spring training, it seems that is what is going on. The Korea Times is the oldest of three English-language daily newspapers in South Korea, and it is produced by the largest publishing company in the country. This recap of Park's latest start is linked, with a picture, on the front page of KoreaTimes.com with a headline that says "Start me up!"
How intensely are South Koreans following this battle? The article goes so far as to parse the words written by the Associated Press about yesterday's game against the Astros, attempting to find some indication as to the direction the Phillies are leaning.
Look at it this way: if you stopped a passerby on the streets of Seoul and asked him who J.A. Happ is, there is a good chance that passerby would answer correctly.
Kind of adds a new level of intrigue to the battle, doesn't it?
Chan Ho Park wants to start. He made that clear when he signed, he made that clear when he first arrived at spring training, and he made that clear yesterday when I asked him point blank if he would accept a role in the bullpen.
"Wait and see," was Park's reply.
It seems that this competition is not simply a matter of Park helping the Phillies repeat. It is about national pride. If Park loses the battle to Happ, there will be a story in the Korea Times that says this. And, judging by the way the battle has been framed thus far in media reports over there, it will be portrayed as a defeat.
If the Phillies decide to go with Happ, it will put them in a precarious position. Nobody knows exactly what was said between the two sides during contract negotiations. If Park really came away from the discussions thinking that all he had to do was pitch well to win the starting spot, then it will look like the Phillies are going back on their word if they do not give him the job. After all, he has struck out 25 batters and walked just two this spring. He has a 2.53 ERA. He showed yesterday that he can overcome a rocky start, something that is imperative as a starter.
But from an evaluation standpoint, the Phillies can make a strong case for Happ. Happ has performed well. He has a 3.15 ERA. He has allowed two fewer hits in 1 1/3 fewer innings, at least in Grapefruit League play (minor league appearances and simulated games are not factored into these statistics). And numbers aren't everything. Park faced a line-up yesterday that was devoid of Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee. It is very hard to compare apples to apples in the spring. Looking further down the road, the Phillies have a greater vested interest in Happ's future. At some point in time, they need to find out if he is going to be rotation-material for them down the road. Joe Blanton will be a free agent after the 2010 season and Brett Myers is a free agents next season. If both have good seasons, it is hard to imagine the Phillies being able to have enough payroll flexibility to afford both. Furthermore, Jamie Moyer is 46. And there is no telling where the futures of Kyle Kendrick and Carlos Carrasco lie.
Add in the contributions Happ made last season, and the work he has put in this offseason, and the fact that he has done everything the Phillies have asked him to do, and it would seem to be equally difficult to tell Happ that he just wasn't good enough this spring. Pitching coach Rich Dubee has said all along that he will not forget what Happ did for the team last season.
"Fit" is a word Dubee and Charlie Manuel have used repeatedly when explaining how they will make their decision. Asked yesterday, Manuel didn't say that the winner would be whoever has pitched best this spring. He said the decision will come down to whatever "fits best." Park proved last season he could have success as a reliever. The Phillies, meanwhile, have said all along that they view Happ as a starter.
Maybe Park is the clear-cut choice as a starter. He has certainly looked good. If so, the decision is easy. If he isn't, though, a logical scenario would seem to have Happ begin the season as the starter and keep Park in the bullpen as a reliever/insurance policy. If Happ pitches well, it works out best for the team. If he doesn't, then they can put Park in the rotation and give him his shot.
The problem, of course, is the one we alluded to at the beginning of this blog post. There is no telling how Park would react if the Phillies told him that his sparkling spring just wasn't sparkling enough. At that point, even the most rational of professional athletes would wonder whether the Phillies had ever considered him a realistic option for the starting rotation. The situation, it seems, is more complicated than a simple matter of "fit."
If you told Manuel and Dubee and Ruben Amaro Jr. in February that both Happ and Park would pitch as well as they have, they would have responded by saying that too many quality pitchers is a good problem to have. They would have told you that spring has a way of working these things out.
Well, spring is almost over. Whether the Phillies' problem is a good one or a potentially divisive one will be fascinating to see.
The issues are three-fold. A) Kendrick has proven he can win, but the league caught up with him. However, once he develops secondary pitches, he might be able to pitch effectively again. B) Happ hasn't been lit up yet. It's going to happen. It absolutely will. It happens to every starter eventually. C) Park, otoh, is old. He has shown that he cannot win anymore. Now, it could be that Park will come back, that Happ can avoid imploding, and that Kendrick simply lacks the skill set for a major league pitcher. However, I do not think things are as clear cut as Park doing better in spring training. Meanwhile Garry Sheffield would look mighty nice as a right handed bat off the bench, and the price is right!— charyma- Writing about a connudrum during lent is a sin?— ktdb05
- Joey Donuts, what arguments that you've read do you deem illegitimate?— tjc
- Park's gotta get this. Happ is very good, but Park simply won the competition.— Philth
- Park giving the Phillies 6-7 effective innings 30 times in 2009 is far more valuable than him giving 1-2 innings 60 times. Think about the situation the Phillies found themselves in last season regarding Adam Eaton. He made 21 starts, and the Phillies lost 11 of them. Granted, he did pitch well in a handful of them, but in at least four starts, he didn't even give the Phillies a chance to win the game. Replace him with Park, and the Phils could have had 4-6 extra wins. That's pure speculation, of course, but you get the idea. As important as the bullpen is, the team has to have the lead in order for an effective bullpen to do its job. Park has pitched his way into the starter's role for now. If he falters, Happ can take his spot. Happ is still young and he has a future with the team. That future might not be 2009, however.— DTrey
- Charlie will do what is best for the Phillies. Not Park, not South Korea, not Happ. THE PHILLIES— Reggie92
- DTrey, this team won the division last year with Eaton and Kendrick holding down the 5th starter spot. Do they win the division without Durbin's contributions in the pen? As for your assertion that Park can give 6-7 effective innings 30 times in 2009, two things: 1) Park hasn't averaged 6 IP since 2001, and 2) Park hasn't produced 30 effective starts since 2001. You can't just ignore his track record from 2002-07 in projecting him to give 6-7 effective innings 30 times in 09.— tjc
- The reason Amaro signed Park was because his versatility as a multiple innings reliever and as a starter, not as a 7th inning guy. We have enough “bridge guys’’ in the pen in Eyre, Durbin, Condrey, Majweski and Koplpove (in AAA). A fifth starter, contrary to what you believe, is very important in a long season, especially when you have a 46 year old pitcher in your staff. So far Park looks like he has rediscovered his mid-90’s with good movement fastball and has developed a good changeup to be an effective starter. His numbers this spring are ridiculous, especially in the strikeout department. Why should the Phillies waste his stuff in the pen where there is a lot of arms and not too many innings, unless they want to make him a set up guy, which is not going to happen with Madson there? I’ll take 30 starts with six innings than 50 to 60 appearances in relief, any minute.— EL Zorro
- Park would be valuable in the bullpen, IF he wasn't a head case for losing out the starting job he knows he earned. All of these guys have fragile psyches. It would benefit everyone if Park was named the 5th starter to open the season. If he fails after that, you have a great plan B. Lets go Phillies! Can't wait for opening day. If they pick Happ it'll be because they know something we don't.— joey bagadonuts
- Our "right handed bat off the bench" guy just got cut: GARY SHEFFIELD.— TommyGun
- Think outside the box - use a six-man rotation, and a six-man bullpen. Would also protect Moyer from his own age and Hamels from his own fragility.— RollinsWasRight
Who cares whether it's Park or Happ? I'm enjoying the colloquy between Murphy and mick314...- tjc, Murph mentioned a few of the arguments above. Park wasn't facing the best hitters, not forgettig what Happ did last season, Happ is the future, Park would be great at long relief, Park was only promised a CHANCE to compete.— joey bagadonuts
- I've thought all along that Park would be disappointed to be placed in the pen, since as you remind us, he stated his goals from the beginning, and I've been wondering how being put in the 'pen would affect him psychologically - sort of a reverse of Brett Myers's situation last year. But I didn't realize the extent of the pressure place on Park by his country! To be responsible for an entire people's pride or shame is a lot to shoulder, if I'm understanding Murphy right (not having read the article in Korea Times).— gbrettfan
- I heard on 2 different MLB On XM programs yesterday (Kennedy and Joyce, Dibble and JodyMac), that Park deserves the starter spot based on his performance this spring.— gbrettfan
