Posted: Monday, March 22, 2010, 11:04 AM | 31 comments |
 
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Roy Halladay has been called an animal, a machine, a mercenary, and any of a number of other cliches that refer to a pitcher's ability to chew up hitters and spit them out with ridiculous consistency. But as consistently dominant and durable as he has been over the past decade, he has never started more than three games in a season on short rest.

What does that mean? It means the Phillies are going to need a fifth starter for the 2010 regular season. If you have spent most of the previous month with a pulse, you realize that the two candidates to fill this job are Kyle Kendrick and Jamie Moyer. If you happened to be out of town for the last month, perhaps visiting your therapist in Arizona, pick up a random Daily News and chances are you will find the nuts and bolts of the competition detailed within.

Really, not much has changed since the start of spring training. Over the past couple of days, manager Charlie Manuel has said repeatedly that he knows what kind of pitcher Kyle Kendrick is, and he knows what kind of pitcher Jamie Moyer is, and that their on-the-field results during their respective Grapefruit League starts wouldn't necessarily have much of a bearing on the pitcher who ultimately starts the season in the rotation. On one hand, that makes sense. Has Jamie Moyer really become a different pitcher after 22-plus years in the big leagues, the last three of which have come in Philadelphia? Is Kyle Kendrick's line after four meaningless exhibition games going to supercede the month he spent with the Phillies last season, or the year of development he enjoyed in the team's minor league system?

On the other hand. . .it's hard to believe that the Phillies are staging these spring games simply to provide us writers with material. Don't get me wrong - it would be a lovely gesture. But the older scribes tell me they just don't care that much about us. So the performances by Moyer and Kendrick in the Grapefruit League have to mean something, right?

Probably. But I think Rich Dubee was being honest when he said at the beginning of spring training that Kendrick would have to significantly out-pitch Moyer to win the job. You might look at Kendrick's line -- two runs allowed in 14 innings -- and argue that he has significantly out-pitched Moyer. But the way Dubee talked at the beginning of his spring, Kendrick would have had to show up seven-feet tall shooting balls of fire from his eyes and lightning from his arse to have a chance at making the Phillies rotation. And while he has been very good, I have yet to see any balls of fire at Bright House Field.

Kendrick looks very much like a pitcher who has established himself as a component of the Phillies' future. But Moyer has looked like Moyer -- in other words, he has looked like the same pitcher who received a two-year contract just last offseason. That contract will pay him $8 million this year. Hence, the fire/lightning requisite.

You might not like that. You might think that Kyle Kendrick has earned the spot in the rotation. And maybe he has. But starting 2010 with Moyer as a starter makes a heck of a lot of sense for a number of reasons:

1) If the Phillies decide to put Kendrick in the rotation, their next decision will involve Moyer's fate. Do they release him and eat the $8 million they owe him (or trade him and eat most of that money anyway?)? Or do they move him to the bullpen? With J.C. Romero and Brad Lidge likely to start the season on the disabled list, the Phillies would almost certainly choose to keep Moyer around. Because Romero and Lidge would not be taking up a roster spot, they would have room for him, as well as Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin, Danys Baez, Jose Contreras, David Herndon and Antonio Bastardo.

But Moyer is not built to be a regular reliever. Sure, he pitched well out of the bullpen last season, but that was a special situation, where his appearances were carefully planned out to coincide with those of Pedro Martinez (and Martinez's just happened to coincide with storm systems that forced him from two outings). Just yesterday, Dubee and Manuel both said they did not envision Moyer as a guy who could pitch on back-to-back days, or in a situational role against left-handed hitters. So he wouldn't really have a role. With Lidge and Romero sidelined, there would be room for him. But once Lidge returns in early-to-mid-April, the Phillies would have to decide between keeping Moyer or keeping Rule 5 pick David Herndon, who has had an impressive spring. And even if they kept Moyer over Herndon, once Romero returns in mid-to-late-April, the Phillies would have to decide between keeping Moyer or Bastardo, their only true lefty reliever.

On the other hand, starting Kendrick in the bullpen would give the team more flexibility. Because he has two minor league options, the Phillies would have the option of sending him back to Triple-A Lehigh Valley to clear up a roster spot for Lidge or Romero. With Moyer, they would not have that option.

2) So if the Phillies decide that Kendrick gives them a better rotation than Moyer, why not just release Moyer right away? Because the Phillies have very little starting pitching depth. That might not matter if Kendrick thrives in the rotation. But what if he struggles? After all, his last season as a full-time starter, he lost his job. Sure, he looks like a much different pitcher now. But remember how good Chan Ho Park looked last spring training?

If Kendrick struggles, and you've already released Moyer, you've eliminated the option of hoping that Moyer can re-discover the magic he had in 2008.

The more logical move would be to get a verdict on Moyer as early as possible. Best case scenario, he pitches like he did in '08, and Kendrick moves to the bullpen as a long reliever. Keep in mind this could also help the bullpen, which could always use another reliable arm.

Worst-case scenario, Moyer struggles in April, and the Phillies replace him with Kendrick. It would be much more difficult to do the other way around, especially because you don't want Kendrick looking over his shoulder as he pitches.

Just my two cents.

^

As you read earlier, Carlos Ruiz has been scratched from the line-up due to an illness. Nothing to be concerned about. Non-roster invitee Dane Sardinha will catch Cole Hamels.

. . .Brad Lidge is throwing in his second minor league game at 1 p.m. Ryan Madson is also scheduled to throw in that game.

. . .Roy Halladay will pitch in a minor league game on Thursday, thanks to the rotation jumbling requried by the rain-out of yesterday's minor league game.

 

 

 

Posted by David Murphy @ 11:04 AM  Permalink | 31 comments
31
Comments   
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:17 AM, 03/22/2010
    the concept of "eating his contract" is misleading. It's a sunk cost, it gets paid regardless of what they do, so it's immaterial to the decision making process. You play your best players. Jamie Moyer is a better pitcher than Kyle Kendrick, but salary really shouldn't matter. Kendrick doesn't miss as many bats as Moyer. Which is pitiful. If youre allocating playing time with a consideration to salary then you are already screwing up.
    either.or
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 11:51 AM, 03/22/2010
    I have agreed with Murph on this topic all month. Starting with Moyer is the best choice due to pitching depth and the mental health of KK. Remember, KK said he wants to contribute to the major league club. After spending last year in AAA, he won't be too upset knowing he is making the team right out of spring training. When he pitches well in long relief he will gain even more confidence because it's against major league hitting. He will also know that he is next in line to pitch due to injuries or ineffectiveness. Unfortunately, every team puts a starter on the DL at some point during the season. As Phils fans we should all be thrilled if Jamie pitches well because it means we won't have to dive into our starting pitching depth. God forbid he pitches poorly, gets replaced, and another pitcher gets hurt. We'll all be a little upset about that scenerio. So lets keep our hopes up that Jamie can give us one more decent year. Lastly, having KK in the bullpen would give us another arm with lots of movement. KK and Herndon are sinker ball pitchers, Baez and Contreras are split finger guys. The movement on those four are great especially in one inning roles.
    BammBamm
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:16 PM, 03/22/2010
    Kendrick has waaaaayyyyyyyy outpitched Moyer. Dubee must be freaking out! Mgmt wants to keep Moyer happy and give him another shot because he was totally miffed to be sent to the pen last year, but Kendrick has beaten him hands down! Mgmt must have put the word out to the writers to "support their decision" because I can't understand why all of the writers are penning "Jamie must start" articles. If it was truly a competition, Moyer should go to the pen. Kendrick has won the spot...period.
    bleedinggreen
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:23 PM, 03/22/2010
    Phillies management will need to have a backbone to go with a 47 year old pitcher who teams catch up to in the 5-6 inning. there come a time when a change is needed. Dubee has not helped any pitcher to improve his delivery or add any new pitches.
    tulsaphil
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 12:25 PM, 03/22/2010
    If Moyer looks like he can do it, as an organization, for the here and now as well as the near future, start Moyer and KK in the pen. Send him to AAA if needed for the year, or to bring up with an injury, once Lidge/Romero come back. Gotta keep Herndon, he's pitching too well to give back to Anahiem, and KK should be able to earn a spot outright next year when Moyer finally walks away from the game.
    Bleue
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:10 PM, 03/22/2010
    either.or, salary does matter into the equation. RAJ is the person with how the roster is finally set. If the owners see that RAJ has put an $8mil starting pitcher in the pen or the release him then they question whether he is good enough for the job because he obviously screwed up on that player. But if RAJ uses Moyer in the starting roation to start the season, and Moyer sucks it up, then RAJ can go to the owners and say that 08' was a magical year for Moyer and we were hoping to capture that magic again but alas it hasn't happened. So if I were to keep him in the starting rotation then we would put our current season in jeopardy. Which the owners wouldn't want. It's all about timing and covering your rear in this game.
    engineeringagr8tdrive
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:11 PM, 03/22/2010
    yo, bleedinggreen - it's a conspiracy! Writers keep writing articles on Moyer 'cause they get paid by the comment and this is the closest subject the Phillies have to a "McNabb".
    vafan
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 1:24 PM, 03/22/2010
    Yo Murph, stop stealing Michael Bradley's blog posts...........
    Earl J
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:03 PM, 03/22/2010
    Completely agree with you about the Moyer/Kendrick situation
    Lemur
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:31 PM, 03/22/2010
    The Phillies always play the highest paid player. It doesn't matter who's better. End of story!
    spumoni
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:33 PM, 03/22/2010
    Murph, you're dead on. Agree 100%
    JimG
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 2:57 PM, 03/22/2010
    as bad as moyer could be, KK is still KK. i dont believe in him.
    sunking11
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 3:29 PM, 03/22/2010
    what a joke, Moyer is finished put the youngin in there he has more than earned it. cool $8 mill the phils owe him pfffffff
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 3:35 PM, 03/22/2010
    I think Kendrick is has a future in the bigs with someone. If the Phils are smart they use this opportunity to ease Kyle into the bigs again by giving him the middle relief role and let him throw ground ball outs. Jamie is always a competitor and this being his last year he will look to make the best of it by increasing his totals in the win column. His experience and ability if healthy will be another asset. How can you go wrong. More than likely Durbin will pitch himself out of a job by not attacking the strike zone so there will be a spot for Kyle. The biggest question in my mind is Lidge. Will he return to form or will he continue to be a bomb. Only time will tell.
    Wally 24
  • 0 like this / 0 don't   •   Posted 4:51 PM, 03/22/2010
    blah blah blah re the pitchin post. the arms'll be okay no matter who's numba 5. me, i'm concerned about the hitters. it's still long ball or no ball. and ibanez...ah, raul me boyo, thanks for those 3 amazing months last spring. see ya later.
    kiwi


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About David Murphy
David Murphy joined the Daily News as its Phillies beat writer in February of 2008. Born in Upper Merion and raised in the Poconos, he attended college at La Salle University before taking jobs with the Myrtle Beach (S.C.) Sun-News and the St. Petersburg ( Fla. ) Times. E-mail Dave at dmurphy@phillynews.com.

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