Mets Predictions; Trading Howard
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Mets Predictions; Trading Howard
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
Several times a week I'm asked for my predicition on how this season will end for the Phillies. It happens on radio shows, on television, via email, and occasionally while I am waiting in line for a Hoagie. Two months ago, I would provide an answer and pretend like I knew what I was talking about. Now, however, I happily admit that I have no bleeping idea. A couple of weeks ago, I was starting to think that maybe, just maybe, the Phillies offense was what it was, and that things were not going to get better, and that even the overachieving pitching staff wouldn't be able to overcome the deficiencies the team had displayed at the plate.
I thought this after the Dodgers swept the Phillies, and Mets took a 2.5 game lead in the National League East.
But then the Padres series started, and for whatever reason I got the feeling that this team was not, in fact, finished. I remember sitting in the dugout at Petco Park for the first game against San Diego and being amazed at how loose the players and coaches seemed. They were coming off a four game sweep at the hands of the Dodgers, had fallen as far out of first place as they'd been in quite some time, yet had an air about them. I was talking to one of the Phillies PR people and I told him that I had a feeling they were about to go on a run. Seven out of the next 10, I said. Turns out it was nine of 11.
So now its time for the Mets, and I was just asked 45 minutes ago what I think, and to be very honest, I have no clue whatsoever. If somebody binded my hands behind my back and walked me to the edge of the Ben Franklin Bridge and forced me to make a prediction under threat of my life, I would say that the Phils and Mets will split, that the offense will jump all over Pedro tonight -- he's due for a stinker -- and then get shut down by Santana tomorrow night. And then on Thursday as they fly out to Chicago everything will be back where it began.
But don't take that to the bank by any means.
^
I appeared on Daily News Live yesterday and had the chance to speak with Fox's Ken Rosenthal, who is always pretty plugged in when it comes to the Phillies. One topic he broached was the possibility of trading Ryan Howard in the offseason. He didn't say the Phillies were likley going to make a deal, or even that they should make a deal. Just that they "could explore" the possibility. Now, a lot of things could happen in the offseason. The state of New Jersey could break off into the ocean and we could all have beach front property by this time next year. But a lot of what Ken said makes sense: Howard could command upwards of $14 million next season. From a contract standpoint, his trade value will creep downward as he grows closer to free agency. And he has obviously struggled this season.
That said, the Phillies have in many ways built this team around guys like Howard, at least from a marketing standpoint. Yeah, he has struggled this season. But he is also among the league leaders in home runs and RBIs, and if he can accomplish that in a year in which he is hitting under .230, there's no reason to think he won't continue to do it for the forseeable future. This guy has a chance to put up some record home run and RBI numbers, and I'm sure a lot of people would like to see him do it in a Phillies uniform.
What do I think? I think its way too early to even be talking about any of this. Lets see what happens over this next month, first.
It is impossible to get equal value for Howard in a trade because it is uncertain who he is as a player. Is he the MVP RYHO of 2006 or the .230 doesn't know the strike zone RYHO?— dikfer69- Clem-- Howard is not sooo young and his average had dropped each year. Pitching wins and aces are few and far between. This team will never win a championship with Ryan Howard.— bpiont
- Clem, I'd like to live in your world where 29 years old is sooo young. What you see from Howard is what you're going to keep getting, a strikeout machine that swings at terrible pitches and gets his homeruns and RBI's when we're way ahead or way behind. He is a below average first baseman that cannot make a throw to 2nd base. He is what he is, get used to it. The only time he had a decent average was when none of the teams knew how to pitch to him.— bigtbone
- pbuscio, maybe the Cardinals SHOULDN'T trade for Howard. But, if you could get a home town former MVP locked up for the same money as your somewhat injury prone former MVP at the same position, AND get another MVP who may be the best SS in the league for throwing in your 9-year minor leaguer who's just having an absurd season (fluke), you might just consider it. This year, JRoll has been (ahem) a marginal leadoff hitter and only an average SS. Will he rise for the last 35 games? Who knows? What I do know is that Ryan Howard has about as much chance of getting $18M/year/8 years from the Phillies as I do. He walks as soon as he is able. So does Hamels. The Teflonics like cost control, in addition to keeping those controls down. Personally, I think both Howard and Rollins will close strong and the Phils will win the East. Holliday should have been MVP last year though, and Polanco should still be in Philly, playing 3B...— Bake McBride
- I want the Phillies to have Utley, Howard, Hamels, and Rollins for a very long time. Everyone else....doesn't matter. Those 4 players are the identity of this team.— nervegenerator
- Ryan Howard for Josh Beckett— aklein24
Comment removed.- Pat Burrell is going to want more money than his worth. He is consistently okay and unless he takes less money they shouldn't sign him. He's had two okay years batting behind MVP years for Howard and Rollins and one of the best hitters this league will see for a while in Chase Utley. They need to resign Howard and pay his worth. Halladay would be sweet but CC would be the best. NL hitting can't touch him. The Brewers may just put up the money to retain him to support thier young core. They are actually a similar looking team to the Phils just in a tougher conference and has management willing to make moves.— Inthemiddle
- Get what you can for Howard and go after Mark Texeira in Free Agency. Great numbers, tremendous defense and just loves to play the game. I also like that he makes no secret that he is eager for his payday in free agency. Make the play, step up, and truly get your franchise first baseman for the next 10 years.— MtnClmr
- Forget Pujols, I have it - Howard for Brandon Webb and Dan Haren. AZ will totally go for it.— B in DC
- Bake, I am not opposed to trading Howard. It just won't be the Cardinals. How's this scenario. Texeira signs with the Yankees. The Phils re-sign Burrell, then trade Howard to the Angels for Ervin Santana and Gary Matthews Jr. They then trade Matthews, along with a minor leaguer or 2 to Colorado for Matt Holliday. So in essences you are trading Howard and a minor leaguer for Holliday and Santana. Maybe a prospect going each way.— pbuscio
- Comment removed.
- Teixiera will be available, right? Trade Howard for an ace, and sign him.— dfresh
- Comment removed.
- I have a hunch that Joe Savery will wind up at first base in two years or so. In the meantime Burrell goes to first next year after signing a modest two year contract and Howard is moved for a leftfielder among others until Michael Taylor is ready.— Dull
