Meet your new Phillies, same as the old Phillies?
Maybe the Mayans were wrong. Or maybe they were Phillies fans. Because right now, it is looking like Dec. 21, 2012 will go down in history as the last day any realist could consider them a sure-fire World Series contender.
Meet your new Phillies, same as the old Phillies?
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
By DAVID MURPHY
Maybe the Mayans were wrong. Or maybe they were Phillies fans. Because right now, it is looking like Dec. 21, 2012 will go down in history as the last day any realist could consider them a sure-fire World Series contender. That was the day that the last of the everyday outfielders vanished from the free agent market, as Nick Swisher went from the Yankees to the Indians on a four-year, $56 million contract.
Maybe something changes in between now and the start of spring training. Maybe Ruben Amaro Jr. finds a way to swing a trade that will address one of the glaring needs that still exists on his roster at the midway point of the offseason. But the odds of that are long. The Phillies have already parted with two of their top trade chips in Vance Worley and Trevor May, and they did not exactly have a large stack to begin with. The trades that were supposed to make them contenders were made long before this offseason. The prospects that other teams covet are already gone. Anthony Gose, Jonathan Singleton, Jarred Cosart, Domingo Santana -- those are the types of players who end up being dealt for the Justin Uptons of the world. But the Phillies dealt them for two full seasons and two half seasons of Roy Oswalt and Hunter Pence.
Now, after choosing to sit out a wildly expensive and under talented free agent position player market, Amaro and Co. find themselves with a personnel structure that looks remarkable similar to the way it did on Opening Day last season. Go position by position and ask yourself: are the Phillies in any better position to contend than they were one year ago today?
The trend of replacing departing players with lesser parts appears to have continued with Ben Revere stepping in for Shane Victorino and John Lannan stepping in for Vance Worley and some combination of Domonic Brown and a right-handed-bat-to-be-named-later stepping in for Hunter Pence, who previously stepped in for Jayson Werth. Revere is younger than Victorino and has more potential, but you can not ignore the fact that Victorino finished the 2012 season, the worst as a big league regular, with an OPS 29 points higher than Revere. Much the same can be said for the situation in right field. And at the bottom of the rotation, the Phillies have managed to get older AND less talented.
The optimistic view is that, one year ago, Ryan Howard was still working his way back from surgery to repair a ruptured Achilles tendon. This year, though, he is working his way back from a season in which he hit just .219 with a .295 on base percentage, .423 slugging percentage and 11 home runs in 292 plate appearances. And a broken toe.
The Phillies are optimistic that, this year, Chase Utley will be healthy for a the whole season. Last year, though, they were saying the same thing.
Even if you do count the outlooks for Howard and Utley as improvements over last year at this time, you also must count the outlook for Roy Halladay as the opposite. The veteran ace will be 36 years old, and he will be coming off a season in which his velocity and command dipped, his ERA ballooned, and his shoulder was afflicted by a condition that was not addressed via offseason surgery.
That’s not to say that Halladay will not return to the form he displayed in 2010 and 2011, going 40-16 with a 2.40 ERA in 484 1/3 innings. Nor is it to say that Howard won’t return to the form he displayed in 2011, or that Utley won’t miss the first two months of the season for the first time since 2010, or that Brown won’t fulfill the potential that earned him recognition as one of the top prospects in the game in 2010, or that Darin Ruf won’t continue hitting home runs at a Ruthian pace, or that newly-acquired veteran Michael Young won’t bounce back from an abysmal 2011 while also proving he can handle the defensive responsibilities of an everyday third baseman, or that Lannan and Kyle Kendrick will prove to be just as adequate as Worley and Joe Blanton were at the start of last season.
But that does say that the Phillies are essentially in the same position they were last year, the outcome of their season predicated on a slew of breaks in their direction even before the inevitable regular season injuries had a chance to mount. The variables may have been different -- John Mayberry Jr., Laynce Nix, Worley, Placido Polanco -- but the questions were very much the same. If healthy, Mike Adams should be a huge improvement over the committee that manned the eighth inning last season. But he is also an aging reliever coming off surgery (although, admittedly, not as aging as Jose Contreras was at this time last year).
The potential is probably greater than it was last season. And there is a certain amount of excitement that comes with watching a trio of under-30 players like Ruf, Brown and Revere attempt to establish themselves as legitimate pieces of a franchise’s future. Then again, this is a franchise that will have a payroll eclipsing $170 million. This is a franchise that has a lot of financial and emotional capital invested in perennial World Series contention. And while 2013 could prove to be the start of a new chapter in Phillies baseball, the roster as it stands right now does not preclude the chance of it being the expensive end of an old one.
i am not upset that the phillies didnot overpay for the likes of nick swisher or cody ross.they have to believe in darin ruf....a lot o if's but they have no choice to believe that howard utley halladay can all return to form....if they don't they the rebuilding begins and they are not stuck with more guys like swisher.....also i have faith that revere brown ruf and mayberry jr will be a potent OF....they also have enough young arms to fill a fifth slot if lannan can't......my word we can't have both the phillies and IGGLES going into the dumper at the same time now can we? but on the brightside will make me feel like a teenager(early 70's) again :-))
— malco49- I think you guys are giving way too much credit to their second half last season. It is easy to perform with no expectations. As soon as they got close, they revealed how they really are. It was kind of like the Eagles winning out last year after falling to 4-8 when there was no expectations. You don't necessarily need a thumping team to win in MLB, but you do when you don't have players who can work a count or get on base at a good clip. Kendrick was a fluke and Lannan is a left handed Kendrick (prior to the end of last season), so you do not have the best rotation in the league.— craigmack
- sign delmon young. at least he'll keep the phils in the headlines, and make some contact...— guru26
- stoner - good observations/comments.
Agree in particular with the Worley/Mays observation. If they were so "valuable" one might think that they could have been packaged for a Justin Upton rather Ben Revere.
And a reminder to all: "Blue chip" prospects are just that ... PROSPECTS. Unless/until they develop into legit major leaguers there will always be the unknown. Kyle Drabek to name one of many.— FishFryFrank - Patient: "Doctor, I hate the team that I love."
Shrink: "You know the difference between love and hate, right?"
Patient: "There's a difference?"— CallisonTaylorRojas - The Phillies' hope for being better is wrapped up in their young outfield, Freddy Galvis, their young bullpen arms and Asche in the minors. It would be very unusual to see guys who have had such long and steady declines as Howard, Rollins, and Utley turn things around at their respective ages. If they can stay on the field and not be horrible, that's a bonus. Young appears to be the same hitter as Polanco- contact, no power, no walks- but a worse fielder. Ruiz has never been an iron man. And it certainly could happen, but you can't expect on anything more from Hamels and Lee compared to what they provided in 2012. You'll have a fun team to watch, but certainly not a serious contender and once again the least bang for the buck in the majors.— jtj06
- They have NOT gotten better, but they have gotten older and cheaper.....and nothing happens till Reuben leaves....big slaries (over paying Howard, JRoll, Coles, Lee) bad bull penn, and an outfield made up of players that still cannot judge a fly ball......— nuggett
- With possible the worst OF in baseball, Pence, or even Victorino, look pretty freakin' good right now.
OH yeah, what did we get for these two? NOTHING. Saved some money, but that's gonna bite us in the
arse.— romanT - @roman....you obviously don't know baseball....
@nuggett....you obviously can't spell and don't know baseball.
The Phils won more games without Pence and Vic. Their approaches at the plate, and their lack of performance were both good reasons for their trades. Amaro made a statement before the season started about approach at the plate. Play the right way or you are gone. Those two ADHD dudes coldn't change their spots, so adios amigos. Ben Revere will be a huge improvement to this lineup.— Mark1npt - @jt.....everybody screams about how old this team is. When they make changes to try to play the younger guys, and not overpay for more old guys, everybody freaks out. You can't have it both ways, fellas. It's time to play the youngsters and see what they got. This is no different than jettisoning Polanco and Thome for Howard and Utley some years ago.— Mark1npt
- I'm afraid Charlie won't let that happen though unless forced to by injuries though. Utley or Howard could hit .150 for four months and Manuel would still pencil them in in the middle of the order. He'll stick Revere 8th, which is a tough spot in the order because you don't get many pitches to hit, and that will get him off to a great start in his new home. — jtj06
- Did I miss something.....or were Utley and Howard really in the opening day lineup last year????????— joberzut
- you missed something. — stoner156
- Biggest need is someone to hit behind Howard who can produce. Lance Berkman could be worth a look. Swisher would have been a good fit though he was overpriced. Considering how many overpaid players are on this roster I can understand why Rube passed on him. Still think they should have gone hard after Josh Willingham last offseason. He would have been a much better value than Swisher.— mb74
- The contracts given out to Swisher, BJ Upton, Victorino, Pagan, and Hamilton are a complete joke. Phillies fans should be applauding upper management for not investing is those aged and overpriced free agents. This team got into a bind by signing 30 year old to multi-year deals. Why does everyone think it's a good idea to continue that trend?— bdd5014
