Meet your new Phillies, same as the old Phillies?
Maybe the Mayans were wrong. Or maybe they were Phillies fans. Because right now, it is looking like Dec. 21, 2012 will go down in history as the last day any realist could consider them a sure-fire World Series contender.
Meet your new Phillies, same as the old Phillies?
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
By DAVID MURPHY
Maybe the Mayans were wrong. Or maybe they were Phillies fans. Because right now, it is looking like Dec. 21, 2012 will go down in history as the last day any realist could consider them a sure-fire World Series contender. That was the day that the last of the everyday outfielders vanished from the free agent market, as Nick Swisher went from the Yankees to the Indians on a four-year, $56 million contract.
Maybe something changes in between now and the start of spring training. Maybe Ruben Amaro Jr. finds a way to swing a trade that will address one of the glaring needs that still exists on his roster at the midway point of the offseason. But the odds of that are long. The Phillies have already parted with two of their top trade chips in Vance Worley and Trevor May, and they did not exactly have a large stack to begin with. The trades that were supposed to make them contenders were made long before this offseason. The prospects that other teams covet are already gone. Anthony Gose, Jonathan Singleton, Jarred Cosart, Domingo Santana -- those are the types of players who end up being dealt for the Justin Uptons of the world. But the Phillies dealt them for two full seasons and two half seasons of Roy Oswalt and Hunter Pence.
Now, after choosing to sit out a wildly expensive and under talented free agent position player market, Amaro and Co. find themselves with a personnel structure that looks remarkable similar to the way it did on Opening Day last season. Go position by position and ask yourself: are the Phillies in any better position to contend than they were one year ago today?
The trend of replacing departing players with lesser parts appears to have continued with Ben Revere stepping in for Shane Victorino and John Lannan stepping in for Vance Worley and some combination of Domonic Brown and a right-handed-bat-to-be-named-later stepping in for Hunter Pence, who previously stepped in for Jayson Werth. Revere is younger than Victorino and has more potential, but you can not ignore the fact that Victorino finished the 2012 season, the worst as a big league regular, with an OPS 29 points higher than Revere. Much the same can be said for the situation in right field. And at the bottom of the rotation, the Phillies have managed to get older AND less talented.
The optimistic view is that, one year ago, Ryan Howard was still working his way back from surgery to repair a ruptured Achilles tendon. This year, though, he is working his way back from a season in which he hit just .219 with a .295 on base percentage, .423 slugging percentage and 11 home runs in 292 plate appearances. And a broken toe.
The Phillies are optimistic that, this year, Chase Utley will be healthy for a the whole season. Last year, though, they were saying the same thing.
Even if you do count the outlooks for Howard and Utley as improvements over last year at this time, you also must count the outlook for Roy Halladay as the opposite. The veteran ace will be 36 years old, and he will be coming off a season in which his velocity and command dipped, his ERA ballooned, and his shoulder was afflicted by a condition that was not addressed via offseason surgery.
That’s not to say that Halladay will not return to the form he displayed in 2010 and 2011, going 40-16 with a 2.40 ERA in 484 1/3 innings. Nor is it to say that Howard won’t return to the form he displayed in 2011, or that Utley won’t miss the first two months of the season for the first time since 2010, or that Brown won’t fulfill the potential that earned him recognition as one of the top prospects in the game in 2010, or that Darin Ruf won’t continue hitting home runs at a Ruthian pace, or that newly-acquired veteran Michael Young won’t bounce back from an abysmal 2011 while also proving he can handle the defensive responsibilities of an everyday third baseman, or that Lannan and Kyle Kendrick will prove to be just as adequate as Worley and Joe Blanton were at the start of last season.
But that does say that the Phillies are essentially in the same position they were last year, the outcome of their season predicated on a slew of breaks in their direction even before the inevitable regular season injuries had a chance to mount. The variables may have been different -- John Mayberry Jr., Laynce Nix, Worley, Placido Polanco -- but the questions were very much the same. If healthy, Mike Adams should be a huge improvement over the committee that manned the eighth inning last season. But he is also an aging reliever coming off surgery (although, admittedly, not as aging as Jose Contreras was at this time last year).
The potential is probably greater than it was last season. And there is a certain amount of excitement that comes with watching a trio of under-30 players like Ruf, Brown and Revere attempt to establish themselves as legitimate pieces of a franchise’s future. Then again, this is a franchise that will have a payroll eclipsing $170 million. This is a franchise that has a lot of financial and emotional capital invested in perennial World Series contention. And while 2013 could prove to be the start of a new chapter in Phillies baseball, the roster as it stands right now does not preclude the chance of it being the expensive end of an old one.
Okay. I don't wish to be baited into this conversation so I will refrain from commenting on any answers to this question. And I know that some of you just don't like Ruben Amaro and that is fine with me.
I understand that there are sports franchises where the owner is too busy to care about the ongoings of the team he/she owns. And that there are GMs who basically have 99% decision making authority. The question is ... Are the Phillies that kind of team ? Who here actually believes that Ruben Amaro has that kind of authority? Who here believes that Ruben doesn't take Ed Wade's or Pat Gillick's advice ? Who believes that Ruben is holding a gun to Giles' head and is simply sending him a monthly memo briefly explaining what moves he just made and how much it's gonna cost the team?
Seriously ?— zubzub
Wait until the Nose shows up in Clearwater 20lbs over his playing weight (that's 40 lbs overweight for anyone else), the Gimp wants to sit every other day, and Roy gets lit up by players wearing numbers over 60. Then what?— Wilhelm Von Humboldt- Another insulting post in an infamous career of retrograde posts. Then what? Then, Mr. Wilpon you can have your finger paints and Keith Hernandez jersey back once again, ok? — Nigel#1
- Maybe Andy Reid will become the Manager of the Phillies and Charlie Mauuel will become the Head Coach of the Eagles.— BobSG
- In my Opinion, the 2013 Phillies have more ifs than the 2012 Phillies and you can not get wins on Ifs. It seems that there are ifs at every position as well as the starters and relievers. It is bad when your entire team is a bunch of ifs.— jpelle36
- Though this team needs to get younger at some point, now is not the time. The young outfielders of the future Greene, Tocci and Cozens will be still at A ball in 2013. Let Ruben roll the dice one more time by bringing in Soriano to play left and bat him behind Howard. Give the Cubs Brownie and Mayberry or a pitcher in return with the Cubs picking up most of Soriano's two year salary left on his contract. Those two have had their day in the sun and have not progressed in Philly. Then work Ruf in right in spring training and bat him behind Soriano. No platooning. It will be like 2008 all over again when righthanded bats Burrell and Werth hit behind Utley and Howard. The Phillies have a good defensive outfielder at AAA who can be moved up to be a late inning defensive replacement.— Dull
- Amaro has one more move to make. Getting fired for a real GM.— ArtieLange
- They built this team on pitching. Revere is a really good centerfielder, who can really cover some ground. That is a plus. Making the bullpen stronger so it quits coughing up the lead is a real good move. The returns of healthy Howard and Utley to help get more leads, that has to help. I really don't see this team losing ground. Unless Halladay has completely lost it, they are likely to win 100 games. I am hoping to see Lannan win 4 or 5 against the gnats, who did him dirty, and maybe even break a few hands while he is at it.— Paul SoTX
- Outside of a complete shakeup ala Boston, this attempt to squeeze another playoff out of an aging nucleus, has been fairly well done.
Amaro has left himself flexibilty to revisit the problem gain at the end of 2013 if his recen moves do not pan out.
I like where we stand right now, and I would hope he keeps his powder dry until the trading deadline - if we are still in contention, we go get another power hitter, if we are out of it, way until yearend and make the wholesale changes for the future.— candidly - Not sure why Murphy is so hung up on Swisher. I do not think any FA was worth the contract he signed. No way I want to tie up that amount of money for five years of Nick Swisher. Murph can add him to his fantasy team all he wants, but I am glad the Phils did not obligate that much cash to yet another soon-to-be aging player.
I am more optimistic going into 2013 than I was 2012. I think guys will bounce back, but perhaps not to the level of their contracts. I mean, anything Howard does should be better than last year, although I do not ever see him being anything close to a $25 million player. He has too many deficiencies that are well-documented in his history. He will not all of a sudden roll out of bed and hit lefties at a respectable clip. I AM looking forward to seeing what Darin Ruf can do with 500-600 AB's. Please Charlie, give this kid a REAL chance.— MrPhillie - There is no dominant team in baseball anymore. There is parity in both leagues. The O's and A's prove my point. The Phils had the pitching in 2011 but failed them until August and September of last year. I'm not sure why they improved late in the year other than Kendrick starting to get it together. Our bullpen is the key to how good this team is going to be. Relative to other teams, and the manager's ability to mitigate the team's short coming we are in the 2013 conversation because the competition is not that good.— fafink
- The Phillies should look at the Pirates and try to pick up Tabata. He would be a bench player to come in for defense and a right handed bat off the bench or spot player plus he has speed and be a base stealer. He is not the power bat they re seeking but hew would be an addition in case the double platoon happens.— rhendzel
- This will be a tough year.— largato
- This will be a tough year.— largato
- This team will continue to under perform with Manuel in the dugout.— gates2012
