Meet your new Phillies, same as the old Phillies?
Maybe the Mayans were wrong. Or maybe they were Phillies fans. Because right now, it is looking like Dec. 21, 2012 will go down in history as the last day any realist could consider them a sure-fire World Series contender.
Meet your new Phillies, same as the old Phillies?
David Murphy, Daily News Staff Writer
By DAVID MURPHY
Maybe the Mayans were wrong. Or maybe they were Phillies fans. Because right now, it is looking like Dec. 21, 2012 will go down in history as the last day any realist could consider them a sure-fire World Series contender. That was the day that the last of the everyday outfielders vanished from the free agent market, as Nick Swisher went from the Yankees to the Indians on a four-year, $56 million contract.
Maybe something changes in between now and the start of spring training. Maybe Ruben Amaro Jr. finds a way to swing a trade that will address one of the glaring needs that still exists on his roster at the midway point of the offseason. But the odds of that are long. The Phillies have already parted with two of their top trade chips in Vance Worley and Trevor May, and they did not exactly have a large stack to begin with. The trades that were supposed to make them contenders were made long before this offseason. The prospects that other teams covet are already gone. Anthony Gose, Jonathan Singleton, Jarred Cosart, Domingo Santana -- those are the types of players who end up being dealt for the Justin Uptons of the world. But the Phillies dealt them for two full seasons and two half seasons of Roy Oswalt and Hunter Pence.
Now, after choosing to sit out a wildly expensive and under talented free agent position player market, Amaro and Co. find themselves with a personnel structure that looks remarkable similar to the way it did on Opening Day last season. Go position by position and ask yourself: are the Phillies in any better position to contend than they were one year ago today?
The trend of replacing departing players with lesser parts appears to have continued with Ben Revere stepping in for Shane Victorino and John Lannan stepping in for Vance Worley and some combination of Domonic Brown and a right-handed-bat-to-be-named-later stepping in for Hunter Pence, who previously stepped in for Jayson Werth. Revere is younger than Victorino and has more potential, but you can not ignore the fact that Victorino finished the 2012 season, the worst as a big league regular, with an OPS 29 points higher than Revere. Much the same can be said for the situation in right field. And at the bottom of the rotation, the Phillies have managed to get older AND less talented.
The optimistic view is that, one year ago, Ryan Howard was still working his way back from surgery to repair a ruptured Achilles tendon. This year, though, he is working his way back from a season in which he hit just .219 with a .295 on base percentage, .423 slugging percentage and 11 home runs in 292 plate appearances. And a broken toe.
The Phillies are optimistic that, this year, Chase Utley will be healthy for a the whole season. Last year, though, they were saying the same thing.
Even if you do count the outlooks for Howard and Utley as improvements over last year at this time, you also must count the outlook for Roy Halladay as the opposite. The veteran ace will be 36 years old, and he will be coming off a season in which his velocity and command dipped, his ERA ballooned, and his shoulder was afflicted by a condition that was not addressed via offseason surgery.
That’s not to say that Halladay will not return to the form he displayed in 2010 and 2011, going 40-16 with a 2.40 ERA in 484 1/3 innings. Nor is it to say that Howard won’t return to the form he displayed in 2011, or that Utley won’t miss the first two months of the season for the first time since 2010, or that Brown won’t fulfill the potential that earned him recognition as one of the top prospects in the game in 2010, or that Darin Ruf won’t continue hitting home runs at a Ruthian pace, or that newly-acquired veteran Michael Young won’t bounce back from an abysmal 2011 while also proving he can handle the defensive responsibilities of an everyday third baseman, or that Lannan and Kyle Kendrick will prove to be just as adequate as Worley and Joe Blanton were at the start of last season.
But that does say that the Phillies are essentially in the same position they were last year, the outcome of their season predicated on a slew of breaks in their direction even before the inevitable regular season injuries had a chance to mount. The variables may have been different -- John Mayberry Jr., Laynce Nix, Worley, Placido Polanco -- but the questions were very much the same. If healthy, Mike Adams should be a huge improvement over the committee that manned the eighth inning last season. But he is also an aging reliever coming off surgery (although, admittedly, not as aging as Jose Contreras was at this time last year).
The potential is probably greater than it was last season. And there is a certain amount of excitement that comes with watching a trio of under-30 players like Ruf, Brown and Revere attempt to establish themselves as legitimate pieces of a franchise’s future. Then again, this is a franchise that will have a payroll eclipsing $170 million. This is a franchise that has a lot of financial and emotional capital invested in perennial World Series contention. And while 2013 could prove to be the start of a new chapter in Phillies baseball, the roster as it stands right now does not preclude the chance of it being the expensive end of an old one.
After no hockey...the Bynum debacle...and the close of the Eagles lousy season. I for one am totally ready for the Phils season.
Halladay comes back and they will still have the top rotation. Ruf and Brown are going to make the fans once again sing the praises of Rube Amaro Jr. This time however it is not for the great moves he made but the for the lack of moves. This team soared to its greatest heights with homegrown players. Brown and Ruf are homegrown and will once again lead us to the the promise land. Say Hallelujah!— rockinrob- To not address the need for a RH power bat borders on criminal negligence. It's been two years now since Werth left. Not sure what the FO is thinking, as I would have thought that would have been priority one. Ruf has had 50 MLB at-bats. You really think he's going to hit 30 HRs after big league pitchers figure out how to pitch to him? People are acting as though the kid has everything figured out because he's hit well at AA and had some success against September call-ups. Well, we'll see. I personally wouldn't put all my stock into believing a rookie is going to address the most glaring need in the lineup. Foolish.— Sam Crow
- The Phillies would be great in a league of church slow-pitch softball. Even Howard could make contact occasionally.— 4thand10
- When I read this article, it's amazing to me once again how the Philly writers feel about this team. Half of them just seem flat out uneducated, however Murphy at least has some sort of opinion on this team that is beyond a cliched few words. When you watched the Phillies during the times this team struggled last year (From April to August), you saw a team with an awful 6-8th innning bullpen, no backend roatation, and an inconsistent offense. After they got back two of their major league regulars in Utley and Howard, and finally got some consistent work from the bullpen, this team pushed for a playoff spot until the last week of the season.
To me that does not scream wholesale change, or this team is awful. It speaks more to adding depth in the organization, namely the bullpen. Adams is a great start, but with the amount of quality relievers still left on the market, (Howell, Wilson, Farnsworth, Perez) this team should try and bring in at least one other RP to compete for a spot.
Is the lineup great? No, not by any means, but it is certainly not bad. As the Giants continue to prove, you need to build your team around pitching and defense.
The key for Phillies to win the 85-90 games this year is staying more injury free then last season above anything esle. A healthy team equals a more consistent, and better team then what we all saw last year. If they have more players on this team equal or come close to the numbers historically on the back of their baseball cards, things will also turn out better. Ryan Howard will never hit .290-300, but he can and should hit .260, not hover around .200 while he swings at every pitch near broad and pattison. I feel that the team is a veteran laden group with as good of a chance as any entering the season, but obviously only time will tell if it happens this year.— ryanrockzzz - I am glad that the Phillies did not overpay for any of the available FA OFers this year.
IMO,Pence, after a good season in 2011 fell apart last year and proved that he could not carry a team. Victorina also failed--perhaps because of the pressure of his pending free agency--but the team is probably better off without him.
I think going into Spring Training--the competition for several positions will add some excitement and there is time to make a corner OF moves if Ruf and/or Brown don't prove to be the answers.
We will not know until the games are played--things are often different than they appear on paper.— Smoothellc - This article is wrong right off the top. Michael Bourne is still a free agent. Just saying. Pretty sure he is an everyday outfielder.— frstrm
- As it stands right now the Phillies are 3rd in the NL East behind both the Nationals and Braves. They are no better then last year. RAJ slammed this club with too many long hefty contracts. Howard leading the pack. If RAJ doesn't find a way to swing a trade and acquire a legit power bat that can play the corner outfield they are no better then what they were at the end of last year.— StewieLavin27
- Ruben AMORON is aptly named. What a stupid baseball man! He does have the gift of gab and would be better off selling used cars with his B.S. affinity. Murph, you hit it right on the head but stopped short of calling the fool a fool. Something I am not willing to do,— gentian
- Lets be logical and objective, instead of emotional and subjective. Fact #1, the 2012 Phillies, with ALL the injuries and bad play, still finished 81-81 and it was considered a "bad season". Fact #2, The Phillies had the 2nd best record in NL AFTER they traded Victorino, Pense, and Blanton. Fact #3, Revere is the prototypical leadoff hitter, good batting average, speed, and limited strike outs. Fact #4, Young, even with last season's numbers, is a major upgrade over Polanco. Fact #5, Darin Ruf is ready to play at the MLB level. Even if he hits .256, hits 25 HR's, and drives in 80 RBI's, he is equal to Nick Swisher w/o the salary and is 4 years younger. Fact #6. The Phillies record includes two months w/o Roy Halladay and 4 months of medicre Roy Halladay. It includes Vance Worley pitching the entire season with a bad elbow, and Lee missing time with an oblique strain. Fact #7, the Phillies bullpen was horrific in the 1st half, due to injuries and "wet behind the ears" rookies who were not ready. The time in the majors actually seasoned some of the young guns who now are ready. Fact #8, Howard missed more than 1/2 the season and was never 100%. He came back simply to show some moxy. Fact #9, Utley again missed 1/3 of the season and only started to look like the healthy Utley in September. Looking at all these problems, why can't a full season of Howard, Utley, Halladay, Young and the addition of Adams equate to at least 10 more wins? Those are simple facts w/o taking emotion into account. Time to look forward to pitchers/catchers reporting.— drhoffman
- I am not a great fan of Ruben either, and acknowledge his past blunders. But unlike PEACEMUFFIN who can only criticize in hindsight, I am going to put out the answer to the Phillies woes and Amaro's past mistakes. First of all, sign Bourn right where he now slots at $16 mil. Then package Revere, Dominic, one good starter prospect, one reliever of the Stutes and company group, and a decent Class A guy. Send them all to the Marlins for Stanton. Maybe mix in one of our catchers, Valle or Joseph, instead. Think of the lineup possibilities, good mix of RH and LH. Outfield would be set for a few years provided Ruf works out. Work in new infielders over the next couple years. Marlins get a bunch of cheapo contracts and some decent players, and some real high ceiling guys. I don't care about the luxury tax. Some of that is my money, and I'd rather they spend it than put it in their pocket. LA's currently around $210M and counting. Why should we worry about 17% of a couple million this year? I wanna win. Besides, that lineup would fill the seats every night again anyway.— cuyatm
- There are 8 teams better than them on paper. Then again, they will be managed again by a tired, old hayseed. That counts for something, right?— Wilhelm Von Humboldt
- There are more like 14 teams better than the Phillies on paper.
Two of them are in the NL East.— fmMD - Clueless Rube has not acquired a single young elite player ever, since taking over the team 4 years ago (no, Revere does not qualify) while sending away Phils best prosprects for misguided acquisitions of overrated Oswalt and Pence (got ony 1/2 good year from each of themm), and now Revere (a lesser player than Victorino and Pence) and Young .... 90% of the free agents signed by Rube have been bargain basement trash, and in discarding players Rube has never received anything of value in return --that's how you detroy a franchise and strip it of all talent --worst g.m.in baseball with no clue how to evaluate talent or how to assess players or team needs or make an intelligent trade— warbiscuit
- Murph - what happened? Are you OK? Who peed in your Wheaties, Dude? Your relentless pessimism is starting to scare me. The only real downer I can foresee (and it IS a biggie) is the Halladay "condition." I have posted this before - it kills me to say it (and this will be the last time) - we have seen the best of Roy Halladay. That said, I still think we have the horses to get to the baseball promised land and will do so in 2013. Play ball!— dwp66
- Rube squandered away young prospects that are the lifeblood of a team --even if all the players do not fully develop, some of them do and they become the players to replace aging declining pieces and/or to trade for other quality pieces that you're missing --blowing your top prospects to compensate for not getting the starter and outfielder you need in the off-season, and only getting 1/2 good year of Oswalt who was then awful in post-season and in 2011, and then he's gone, or for 1 year of Pence and then to give him for useless trash, is how an imbecile turned a once-talented team into trash— warbiscuit
